Familiar scene: C's chucking too much from the outside

[Mr October]

I see a big parallel to last year. The C's are winning and loosing games based on chucking from the outside. Its a pretty standard way for a veteran to save their body a little for the playoffs.

Pierce is jacking more 3's in place of his most dangerous offensive weapon - taking the ball to the basket and battling through contact. I can't even think of the last time I saw KG post up in the paint and take it strong to the basket, or even elevate for a hook shot. And so on...

The individual hero stuff even looks familiar. The legs, that are tired of the regular season, look familiar.

All they need is 20+ minutes out of 1 or 2 O'Neals and the comfort of the playoff schedule/travel. This team is built for the post season. Mid April can't come soon enough. Go Celtics!

[PosImpos]

Yeah, I've been saying for a while that the offense is stagnating and losing us games because we have no inside presence.  That's why we so desperately need Shaq (and hopefully JO) to come back and produce on both ends of the court.  That's also why I don't really buy that missing Perk has hurt us that much, because Perk is even more inept on offense than Krstic, even if he's far better at defense.

[Fafnir]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

[Fafnir]

We also aren't getting as many points in the paint as last year:

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/points-in-paint-per-game

Though its a much smaller decline, but that's probably heavily weighted for when Shaq was in the line up. There are three easy ways to score in the NBA, three point shots, dunks/layups, and free throw attempts.

The C's aren't getting enough of any of those three shot types, our last three games especially.

[Mr October]

Yeah, I've been saying for a while that the offense is stagnating and losing us games because we have no inside presence.  That's why we so desperately need Shaq (and hopefully JO) to come back and produce on both ends of the court.  That's also why I don't really buy that missing Perk has hurt us that much, because Perk is even more inept on offense than Krstic, even if he's far better at defense.

Agreed. I bet if the trade hadn't happened we'd see a lot of the same chucking and loosing.

Overall the defense has been OK. The offense has been maddening. Stagnant. Jacked 3's, especially by Pierce.

In the playoffs last year, if the C's went on a drought from the outside for 3 possessions in a row, you'd see one of the following:

1. KG calling for the ball in the post.
2. Rondo attacking the basket with his speed.
3. Ray and Pierce looking for slashing opportunities.
4. Sheed calling for the ball in the post.

[Mr October]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

Chucking from the outside includes 3's AND long 2's.

I love seeing the C's shoot from the outside in the rhythm of good offense - ball movement and at least some sort of attempt at probing the middle.

But lately I've seen a lot of stagnant lazy offense.

[celticinorlando]

they are VERY lazy on offense right now. Baby is throwing up 15 foot jumpers each time down..PP the same from 3

[Fafnir]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

Chucking from the outside includes 3's AND long 2's.

I love seeing the C's shoot from the outside in the rhythm of good offense - ball movement and at least some sort of attempt at probing the middle.

But lately I've seen a lot of stagnant lazy offense.

You never mentioned long two point shots, but fair enough.

Also another inaccuracy in your OP, Pierce is not taking more 3s he's taking almost exactly the same amount as last year.

[Fafnir]

they are VERY lazy on offense right now. Baby is throwing up 15 foot jumpers each time down..PP the same from 3

Other than the game versus Minnesota Pierce has been pretty typical with his three point shots. He's also gotten to the line pretty well in March, 6.4 per game. He's only taken 3.6 3s per game, he just hasn't been hitting many only shooting 29% for the month.

His average number of FTAs is 5.6 and average 3Pt FGA is 3.7.

[Mr October]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

Chucking from the outside includes 3's AND long 2's.

I love seeing the C's shoot from the outside in the rhythm of good offense - ball movement and at least some sort of attempt at probing the middle.

But lately I've seen a lot of stagnant lazy offense.

You never mentioned long two point shots, but fair enough.

Also another inaccuracy in your OP, Pierce is not taking more 3s he's taking almost exactly the same amount as last year.

Thats interesting that Pierce 3 point shots per game actually aren't that bad. But during the course of the game I see the C's shooting and missing over and over again without probing the middle enough - especially during the droughts.

That is the point of my OP.

This type of behavior is most prevalent against the bad teams too - which also makes sense in the context that the C's are preserving their bodies by playing hard, yet not battling enough near the basket on offense.

When the C's play big time opponents, part of the team 'getting up' for a game also includes them attacking the basket more. Or if a rival like New York gets under their skin enough, the C's get awakened and you see the playoff effort and energy kick in a little.

[Fafnir]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

Chucking from the outside includes 3's AND long 2's.

I love seeing the C's shoot from the outside in the rhythm of good offense - ball movement and at least some sort of attempt at probing the middle.

But lately I've seen a lot of stagnant lazy offense.

You never mentioned long two point shots, but fair enough.

Also another inaccuracy in your OP, Pierce is not taking more 3s he's taking almost exactly the same amount as last year.

Thats interesting that Pierce 3 point shots per game actually aren't that bad. But during the course of the game I see the C's shooting and missing over and over again without probing the middle enough - especially during the droughts.

That is the point of my OP.

This type of behavior is most prevalent against the bad teams too - which also makes sense in the context that the C's are preserving their bodies by playing hard, yet not battling enough near the basket on offense.

When the C's play big time opponents, part of the team 'getting up' for a game also includes them attacking the basket more. Or if a rival like New York gets under their skin enough, the C's get awakened and you see the playoff effort and energy kick in a little.

During the 2009-2010 was Paul Pierce engaged in the game? Was he settling for easy long jumpers?

Because in the playoffs he shot 4.25 per game, if you control for minutes that’s at a higher rate than he has this season.

They're also gettig to the line more often than their average so far this season. They aren't playing as well however, I don't think shot selection is the issue.

[celticinorlando]

but when baby shoots more than Ray...we have a problem

[BballTim]

You're completely wrong on your claim that the C's are chucking it too much.

The C's are shooting a lot less threes than last year. That's not a good thing either, as we have a lot of good shooters from that range. In fact we're shooting less threes in March than any month previous, that's probably a factor in our offense being stuck in the mud.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2011/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2010/splits/

We're shooting slightly better from deep .364 instead of .348. Given that anyhing north of .333 results in better than 1 point per shot, we should be shooting more threes.

Chucking from the outside includes 3's AND long 2's.

I love seeing the C's shoot from the outside in the rhythm of good offense - ball movement and at least some sort of attempt at probing the middle.

But lately I've seen a lot of stagnant lazy offense.

You never mentioned long two point shots, but fair enough.

Also another inaccuracy in your OP, Pierce is not taking more 3s he's taking almost exactly the same amount as last year.

  I'm pretty sure they've been taking a lot of long 2s but the same was true when they were leading the league in TS% by a solid margin.

[Fafnir]

but when baby shoots more than Ray...we have a problem

Yeah KG/Ray need to get more shots.

I'd wager our number of jumpers isn't all that different, the problem is that instead of KG/Ray taking them baby and others are.

[greenpride32]

KG Ray and Paul all have had very bad shooting nights in the past 2-3 weeks.  If a few more of their shots would have dropped we would have pulled off 2-3 more W's and nobody would even be talking about this.

KG and Ray are jumpshooters.  Pierce at this stage in his career is much more of midrange player than going to the hole. 

So basically we are a jumpshooting team; we aren't losing because of that fact, we're losing because the shots aren't falling.  Notice that we've been keeping our oppenents to a low score for the most part; we just aren't scoring ourselves.