Author Topic: Sometimes the Experts get it right.  (Read 5456 times)

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Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« on: March 09, 2011, 12:39:28 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 What did they say when the Heat were put together.

 They will be unstoppable in the open Court. Correct.

 Wade and Lebron are very similar players they both need the ball in their hands and are both scorers and not so much catch and shooters.  Correct.

 Bosh is more of a finesse big man who likes to shoot from outside and doesn't do the dirtywork.   Correct.

 And Haslem was the only big they had to actually play tough and do the dirty work and he's about 6'7" in reality.

 And remember when the Celtics Big three was put together everybody was basically saying it's a good mix of talent.

 Ray Best shooter around, standing still and off screens.

 Paul the slasher and finisher of late games and big moments.

 Kevin the best defender around and he is tough and a leader.

 But the same experts also said that if were five years earlier it wouldn't work because of the Ego's, but since all three were established superstars, and the only thing left was to win a title, people thought it would work.

 So that's what we are seeing now, that school of thought.

 The experts were right, bad fit from a Wade and Lebron are the same type of player argument.

 And three guys trying to "get their numbers" and try to win.

 Sorry Lebron, stay in Cleveland If you want to have the best stats possible. You cant have your cake and eat it too. Pass the ball.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #1 on: March 09, 2011, 10:41:50 AM »

Offline KG Living Legend

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 Do you concur?

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #2 on: March 09, 2011, 10:46:48 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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 Do you concur?
I'm not sure what "experts" you're talking about. If you're going to give props to them for being right you should have specific people you're talking about.

I do think there is something to what Ray/Paul/Kevin said about it not working five years earlier. All three of them were desparate to win and ready to sacrifice.

I don't think Bosh/Wade/LeBron really thought they would have to sacrifice much beyond taking less money.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2011, 10:54:11 AM »

Offline Greenbean

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 Do you concur?
I'm not sure what "experts" you're talking about. If you're going to give props to them for being right you should have specific people you're talking about.

I do think there is something to what Ray/Paul/Kevin said about it not working five years earlier. All three of them were desparate to win and ready to sacrifice.

I don't think Bosh/Wade/LeBron really thought they would have to sacrifice much beyond taking less money.

They were ready to sacrifice shots due to thei desperation for a championship but they did fit together more conventionally than the Heat's 3 do now.

5 years earlier the Celtics might have struggled to sacrifice some shots but that is the only hurdle IMO. The Heat have to both sacrifice AND figure out a way to fit players together that arent exactly complementary.

Im certainly not writing off the Heat yet, but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!) said that one of Wade or Lebron would have to change their games for this to work and it hasnt happened yet. They cant just take turns going one on one. It just doesnt work against good teams.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2011, 11:03:55 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!)
I just hate it when people rail against straw man "experts". Because basketball commentators had very different opinions on the Heat, how they would fit, and how they'd do this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Heat

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/team/_/name/mia

So you can see what ESPN's guys thought, lots of other sites are set up with archives. (Pretty much every one had them at 60+ at ESPN)

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2011, 11:27:34 AM »

Offline toinewalka

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I agree with the main thesis.  A lot of people (not just experts) were talking about how this team was scary on paper, but that we (and I say we because I was in this boat) were having trouble wrapping our mind around how this would look on the court.  Sure enough, the only thing gelling is the open court game because there is only one of the big three running.  The others don't have to sacrafice in those situations.  This Heat team is at an important junction right now.  If they slide a few more games, finger-pointing and blaming-tossing might ruin the season.  If they pick up a big win or two, it could be perfect timing to make them a contender come playoff time.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2011, 11:41:49 AM »

Offline footey

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I think most experts predicted Miami would win it all right away, or at least get to the finals. Very few had them where they are now, 3rd in the East and falling fast.  A good chunk of them said it would take a few months to let them gel, and that is obviously not happening.  Read the latest from Bosh (give me the ball in the post!!) and Wade (coach not playing the right guys from then bench). Disharmony.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2011, 11:47:38 AM »

Offline footey

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but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!)
I just hate it when people rail against straw man "experts". Because basketball commentators had very different opinions on the Heat, how they would fit, and how they'd do this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Heat

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/team/_/name/mia

So you can see what ESPN's guys thought, lots of other sites are set up with archives. (Pretty much every one had them at 60+ at ESPN)

This is why I think Tim Legler is the best analyst at ESPN. He knows what he is talking about. The opinion of guys like Chad Ford, Marc Stein, Chris Broussard, John Hollinger,Chris Sheridan and everyone else at ESPN who has never played as a pro, is pretty worthless when it comes to predicting how a team will do, or even how a team is doing, or what is really happening.  Those other guys should just stick to trying to break stories, and leave the analysis to the big boys like Tim.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2011, 11:48:34 AM »

Offline LB3533

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It's still the regular season.

True judgment will be made in the playoffs.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2011, 11:51:46 AM »

Offline Greenbean

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but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!)
I just hate it when people rail against straw man "experts". Because basketball commentators had very different opinions on the Heat, how they would fit, and how they'd do this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Heat

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/team/_/name/mia

So you can see what ESPN's guys thought, lots of other sites are set up with archives. (Pretty much every one had them at 60+ at ESPN)

I hear ya.

Lets forget about experts. I think that alot of us here on CB thought that LeBron or Wade would have to learn how to play more off the ball for this team to function efficently and effectively. We heard alot of ideas about how Lebron was going to change his game to become a more Magic Johnson type point guard.

Well IMO neither of them has changed anything. They just take turns doing the same thing they have been doing their whole careers.

Not that they still cant make adjustments. This recent stretch is sometimes the kind of thing that wakes up a sleeping giant.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2011, 11:59:37 AM »

Offline BballTim

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but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!)
I just hate it when people rail against straw man "experts". Because basketball commentators had very different opinions on the Heat, how they would fit, and how they'd do this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Heat

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/team/_/name/mia

So you can see what ESPN's guys thought, lots of other sites are set up with archives. (Pretty much every one had them at 60+ at ESPN)

  I think that when the Heat were 9-8 or so they had Jeff Van Gundy on WEEI and I think he reduced his wins estimate for Miami from 70+ to mid-60s. Yikes.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2011, 12:04:57 PM »

Offline drza44

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but many experts (I do not have any specific people either sorry Faf!)
I just hate it when people rail against straw man "experts". Because basketball commentators had very different opinions on the Heat, how they would fit, and how they'd do this season.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Heat

http://espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/team/_/name/mia

So you can see what ESPN's guys thought, lots of other sites are set up with archives. (Pretty much every one had them at 60+ at ESPN)

For what it's worth, in the "Remember who believed when the stories change" thread ( http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=32465.165 ) I collected a bunch of pre-season predictions from a bunch of "experts" from different sites.  While some predicted some of the trouble in the OP, the vast majority picked the Heat to at least represent the East in the Finals if not win outright.  That's still in play, so definitely no gloating, but I really don't think most "experts" expected the Heat's season to go like it has despite some of the apparent obstacles.

Here are some of the expert predictions I collected in the above link.  Though I was looking more for their perspective on the Celtics, their predictions for the Heat are present as well.

*ESPN: 10-person panel, all predicted Celtics either 2nd or 3rd in East (avg 2.8  ).  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-Celtics

*Sports Illustrated: 6 person panel, 3 pick Celtics to win East and 2 pick Cs to win title. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/basketball/nba/10/25/2010-11-preseason-crystal-ball/

*Charley Rosen (Foxsports) expected another Lakers/Celtics Final, with the Lakers once again winning.  http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/Predictions-for-the-2010-11-NBA-season-102110

*Yahoo's 4-person panel.
  All 4 pick Lakers out West, 2 pick Celts and 2 pick Heat in East, Woj picks Cs to win title.  http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-expertpredictions102610

*ESPN's even bigger 25 person panel: 17 pick Heat to win East, 6 pick Cs, 2 pick Magic. http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-East

The panel follows that up with 12 picking the Heat to win Finals, 12 picking the Lakers, and 1 (Chris FOrsberg) picking the Cs.  http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/preview2010/news/story?page=Predictions1011-NBAchamps

*Peter Vecsey doesn't pick the Heat to win the East, but also doesn't pick the Celtics.  Picks the Magic to represent the East. http://www.nypost.com/f/print/sports/more_sports/the_time_championship_dwight_for_BYhc6lxjhwuRPeuOSltKwM

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2011, 12:14:35 PM »

Offline GreenFaith1819

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drza44 - Thanks.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2011, 12:37:30 PM »

Offline zerophase

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It's hard to say if the Celtics wouldn't have worked 5 years ago. KG, Pierce, and Allen have lesser Egos than that of Wade and Lebron. Also the mix of talent is better--none of them duplicate each other in skill set.

Become Legendary.

Re: Sometimes the Experts get it right.
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2011, 01:09:27 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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They are just guys with opinions just like you and me.  The only difference is they get paid to spout off.  A lot of the experts signed on the band wagon.   Most of them are jumping on it right now.   Looking good on paper and looking good on the court are two entirely different things.