Does Green Extend the Window?

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Since when have we had a high quality center?? Our last Perk was slightly above average. I'd take this Krystic dude anytime over Perk. Perk wasted lots of time on drama.

Right.  Who was the center on all of those Bulls title teams again?

[Celtics4ever]

That is how I look at the move as well.  We have Rondo and we need to resign Green and I think Bradley will pan out down the road.  We use the clipper pick to add a 11-12 talent when we can.  We continue to draft well ourselves in the late rounds while this run lasts.  I think we have to look at getting something for BBD if he is going to walk too.   But the future ahead of us is brighter than it was one week ago.  

Anytime you can improve your bench you can prolong the careers of your starters.   There are old legs with a lot of miles and old legs with not a lot of miles.  Never hurts to ease up that cycle.

[billysan]

The OP asks a good question that the jury remains out upon. Certainly, the move is an opportunity to build a bridge from the Big 3 to the future - one that could be enhanced if KG and Ray will play for short money past their current contracts, given the way both appear invigorated at the moment.

If they would each give us another year or two at a time at a reasonable discount, this would certainly allow Danny to use the savings on more talented supporting cast that would develop as they aged. I hope KG doesnt expect 20 million per on his next contract, but if he does that is another whole subject.

The centers thing is a tough debate. Based on numbers, Perk did not and does not fit the high quality criteria. He is and was an 8 and 8 guy for all intents and purposes. I know we all (mostly) saw the tough defense and high character side that isnt counted in stats.

I guess there are bigs who put up high quality numbers that are not high quality people like Z Bo in his Portland years. Do we want that or do we want Krstic and a couple of others by committee? We have to make up the difference either way with team defense and a better PF like KG.

I think we get the best guys we can afford who want to play here. We keep the young ones like Green and develop them until they outprice themselves, like Perk and Tony Allen. Every player has a value limit for a GM, the key is not to exceed that limit wastefully.

We also may have an opportunity to add a couple more players the next couple seasons via the midlevel and that 1st rounder we netted in the OKC trade.

[BudweiserCeltic]

The problem is not really keeping these guys in the roster at a discount so that we can use those savings for other players. The main problem is having cap space at the right moment. And I don't envision a scenario where a discount on our big 3 would give us cap space to work with.

[SamuelAdams]

However, if we were to suppose that Green eventually becomes a valuable 6th man, able to drop 20 points on any given night, my question is as follows: does that extend our window with the Big Three?

 Couldn't we afford to play them 30-32 minutes per game, knowing that Green could play 35+ and make up for any lack of production?  

Love the post OP.  I did read 2 reports on Green from OKC that we should not expect his production to scale with more minutes.  Love the image of Ray and KG aging well like Nash and Miller also.

[clover]

The OP asks a good question that the jury remains out upon. Certainly, the move is an opportunity to build a bridge from the Big 3 to the future - one that could be enhanced if KG and Ray will play for short money past their current contracts, given the way both appear invigorated at the moment.

If they would each give us another year or two at a time at a reasonable discount, this would certainly allow Danny to use the savings on more talented supporting cast that would develop as they aged. I hope KG doesnt expect 20 million per on his next contract, but if he does that is another whole subject.

The centers thing is a tough debate. Based on numbers, Perk did not and does not fit the high quality criteria. He is and was an 8 and 8 guy for all intents and purposes. I know we all (mostly) saw the tough defense and high character side that isnt counted in stats.

I guess there are bigs who put up high quality numbers that are not high quality people like Z Bo in his Portland years. Do we want that or do we want Krstic and a couple of others by committee? We have to make up the difference either way with team defense and a better PF like KG.

I think we get the best guys we can afford who want to play here. We keep the young ones like Green and develop them until they outprice themselves, like Perk and Tony Allen. Every player has a value limit for a GM, the key is not to exceed that limit wastefully.

We also may have an opportunity to add a couple more players the next couple seasons via the midlevel and that 1st rounder we netted in the OKC trade.

One thing I like in a center is bulk.  Another is durability. Skill, intelligence and adaptability are good too.  Good hands are fantastic.  That's why I'm not necessarily averse to having the center committee headed by Krstic--though I know that would horrify many.

[Jon]

That team would need a high quality center. Who is he going to be? Jermaine O'Neal?

Well, I wouldn't entirely rule out JO yet.  However, I agree that he's likely not to be the "high quality" center.  Two things though:

1) If Green is a big part of the future, he's going to have to play some with the Big Four.  That means KG is playing at the 5.  And to be honest, if he starts slowing down, the 5 spot may be a better fit for him anyway. 

2) If the MLE continues to exist in the new CBA, the C's should be able to entice someone relatively good to play at the 5 spot either next summer or the summer after.  The nice thing about Green is that if he realizes his potential, we wouldn't have to worry about using the MLE on anything but a big guy. 

Green will always be a mediocre player at the 4. That team doesn't have enough defense and rebounding to win a title and that's assuming no decline from the Garnett/Pierce/Allen in the next two years, which isn't likely at all.  

Well, I wasn't suggesting that Green start at the 4.  I was merely stating that he's going to play significant minutes with the Big Three + Rondo, this year and down the road. 

And I think in those circumstances all the "numbers" on him being a "4" go completely out the window.  It's silly to compare playing the 4 in OKC's system to playing the 4 in Boston next to 4 All Stars. 

One could easily say that James Posey and Glen Davis were/are "mediocre" power forwards.  However, both have looked great when they play with 4 other All Stars.  The ceiling for Green is even higher. 

[Donoghus]

Possibly.

I do think Green is a step in the right direction, though.

I'd like to see how Ainge handles the upcoming offseason.  There are going to be some serious question marks not to mention these CBA uncertainties.

[Jon]

Possibly.

I do think Green is a step in the right direction, though.

I'd like to see how Ainge handles the upcoming offseason.  There are going to be some serious question marks not to mention these CBA uncertainties.

True.  Though the nice thing is that assuming the MLE still exists, we'll have fewer holes to fill with it than other years.  West's injury problems may actually be a blessing in disguise, as it may allow us to keep him another year (or more) cheaply.  And if Ainge is considering holding onto Ray and KG after 2012, extending BBD becomes less of an issue. 

And if West and BBD are on board next year (along with Green) the only real need we have for the bench is center.  And if the MLE exists still, we could spend all of it on a center. 

[snively]

Most of us have been acting like we're making a big push to pretty much clear everyone off the books except Rondo, Pierce, and perhaps Green, by 2012 and make a run at a top free agent like Dwight Howard.  However, couldn't it just as likely be that Danny's planning the exact opposite? 

First, let's face the fact that even if we were to manage to clear enough cap space under the new CBA (which is no guarantee depending on how much the cap drops), the chances of Howard coming here are low.  It's not just the weather.  While Rondo and Green could be a nice incentive for him, in order to have enough space for him, we'd have to renounce our rights to Allen and Garnett.  Furthermore, Pierce wouldn't be as much of a draw, as Howard would know that he'd only be playing with him for part of his contract. 

Second, right now Ray and KG are showing no signs of letting up.  Ray arguably is looking the best he's looked since coming here and KG looks the best he has since 2008.  Furthermore, guys like Reggie Miller, Karl Malone, and Michael Jordan all stayed productive into their late '30s, as Steve Nash and Grant Hill are now.  Given how good KG and Ray look now (not to mention the fact that next year might be a shortened season), can we really expect them to decline so dramatically that it wouldn't be worth trying to extend them a year or two? 

Third, this is where Green comes in, even if we do see declines in the games of all 3 members of the the Big 3, can't Green make up for that, as he arguably can be paired with any two members of the Big Three?  Couldn't we afford to play them 30-32 minutes per game, knowing that Green could play 35+ and make up for any lack of production? 

Finally, while everyone has their eyes on 2012, can't the big free agent year come any summer?  If we extend Ray and KG one year, couldn't we just as easily make a run at free agents in 2013?  Or in 2014, Pierce becomes a free agent, freeing up even more cap space. 

1.  We've already managed to clear enough cap space for 2012.  Pierce and Rondo are the only guys guaranteed for that offseason for about 28 mil combined.  That's less than half of the current cap.  It should be more than enough space to sign a max player (possibly 2 if a higher hard cap is put in place or the regular soft cap raises a bit).
 
And why can't we have our cake and eat it too with Howard and the big 3?  I think our best pitch to Howard would be as the bridge star between the Big 3 era and the Rondo/Howard era.  Renounce the rights to KG and Ray and then resign them with whatever cap room is available after signing Howard (similar to what Miami did with Udonis Haslem, IIRC).

With something like 45 mil wrapped up in Rondo, Pierce and Howard, Ray and KG on matching discount contracts (say 2 yrs 10 mil each) would be great.  A very appealing situation for Howard: young star PG to get him the ball, a trio of grizzled vets who play tough D, space the floor and share the ball and the flexibility to replace them with younger players in a short time frame.

2.  Sure extending KG and Ray would be great, but it's all about the price.  If they tie up all of our cap room and prevent us from adding a prize young stallion to the stable then it would be a very risky move.   Steve Nash and Grant Hill make a combined $13.5 mil this year: I'd be happy with KG and Ray at a similar combined price.

3.  Green isn't as good as the current versions of the Big 3.  If you end up having to play him more and them less, they may be more well rested, but the team will be worse off.

4.  2012 certainly isn't the only FA class worth waiting for, but it seems like it's the one Danny wants.  And I think we could end up squandering Rondo's prime a bit by investing too much in the continued production of the Big 3.  Rondo will be 26 in 2012, an excellent age to surround him with core pieces in the 25-31 year range, not the 35-38 year range.

2012 and maybe 2013 are the very best years to transition.  The Big 3 will be at the age where they are likely to accept smaller money to play as veteran role players on a team with contention hopes.  Rondo will be entering his peak years.  And we'll still have enough media fanfare and competitive relevance to make us a legitimate free agent destination.  You wait too long to add a star, then the Big 3 retire, and all you have is Rondo, approaching free agency himself, to lure free agents, which probably won't be enough.  Which would probably inspire a tanking movement, at which point Rondo would be in the same place Pierce was in 2006.

[snively]

The problem is not really keeping these guys in the roster at a discount so that we can use those savings for other players. The main problem is having cap space at the right moment. And I don't envision a scenario where a discount on our big 3 would give us cap space to work with.

I think a longer-term deal could do it.  If you offered Ray 3 yrs/15 mil and KG 3 yrs/20 mil, with the deals as cheap as possible in the first year, you could get them for a combined $10 mil in 2012, the only year that cap space would matter for us.  It would probably make us choose between resigning Green and retaining Bradley/our draft picks (unless the cap bumps up a bit), but I think it would be doable.

[GreenEnvy]

I think he can extend the window, or open a new one.

If, and it's a big if, Ainge can get Howard, then this team can become a juggernaut. It really depends on Ray and KG going the Shaq route and playing for the vet min.

Ray will always be a great shooter. Reggie Miller played pretty well at age 38 (.401 3pt%) and 39 (career high .933 ft% and nearly 15 PPG). There's no question that Ray is in better shape and simply a better all-around player. Ray could realistically have another 4 years of quality production.

Then there is KG. Howard would take a lot of pressure off of him defensively, and he could hit that open 18-footer all day. In the post he will still be able to get his shot off over smaller guys because of his length and high release.

A lineup featuring Rondo, Ray, Green, KG, and Howard sounds scary.

And then there is some guy named Paul Pierce, who is still doing it ALL. Need a clutch 3? How about a monster dunk? Or a drive to the basket for FT's? A defensive stop? How about play facilitator? Or maybe just a game-winner is needed? Leave it to Pierce, because he can do anything this team needs.


Now if Ainge or the players don't convince Howard to come here, that puts a kink into the plan but does not change it. Shaq, JO, Krstic, and Murphy are not in our long-term sights, but maybe someone else emerges (via trade or FA) that can fill our C void for 2012-13.

[guava_wrench]

I don't think Green extends our window because we will soon see the games of multiple key players quickly deteriorate.

[GreenEnvy]

I don't think Green extends our window because we will soon see the games of multiple key players quickly deteriorate.

What makes you think that?

If anything, they are proving to very slowly decline, if at all. Look at the Big Three's numbers since coming together. KG obviously had a decline the past 2 seasons because of injury, but his rebounding/defense is right were it was in 2008. He is still extremely efficient. Ray may be having his best season in green. Pierce's number haven't changed significantly at all.

Age ain't nothing but a number.

[guava_wrench]

I don't think Green extends our window because we will soon see the games of multiple key players quickly deteriorate.

What makes you think that?

If anything, they are proving to very slowly decline, if at all. Look at the Big Three's numbers since coming together. KG obviously had a decline the past 2 seasons because of injury, but his rebounding/defense is right were it was in 2008. He is still extremely efficient. Ray may be having his best season in green. Pierce's number haven't changed significantly at all.

Age ain't nothing but a number.

Even if it is a slow decline, it is still falling back to the pack. The team will end up with a bunch of average players who can contribute to a mediocre team and who will be even more injury prone.

If the window we are talking about is chances at a championship, Green doesn't really extend that window. First, Ray and KG aren't even under contract past next season and Shaq and JO will almost definitely be retired after next season. Our window, with or without Green, would still depend on KG and probably Ray staying on and performing at a high level.

What Green does bring us is hope that we might still maintain a willing record post KG retirement, when Ray may no longer be on the team or may be here coming off the bench with lesser contributions. Green increases the chances that we can transition to being like the Wizards when they had 3 all star level guys and a winning record, but were never actually contenders.

I expect a domino effect as guy age since any one of our starters losing effectiveness will mean that opponents can concentrate more resources on stopping the ones that are still effective.

What would truly extend our window would be Rondo developing a jumper a la Parker. That would make him unstoppable on offense and a transcendent player considering how good he is at everything else.