The case for NY trading for Melo

[Fan from VT]

-Apologies if this should be merged with a different thread. I thought it may be it's own type of discussion.

-I took this from my post on the front page discussion, but wanted to clean it up/expand:

So, there's a debate about whether NY, knowing that Melo wants to go to New York, should trade assets for him now or wait and make him sign. If they want him, I think they should trade now.


1. Waiting is risky. Bird in hand and all. You do risk the chance of melo getting cold feet and just taking his max deal.  The Knicks could make a lot of cap room, but it's not like they could easily accomodate for a max deal, so they'd have to bank on Melo's desire to be in new york being worth several millions of dollars, including the uncertainty of the new CBA, which could cost Melo even more, or, concerning the Knicks, could lower the cap and lessen the chances of grabbing Melo. But currently, the cap is at 56 million or so, and i have NY's next season's payroll at 49 mill. Turiaf has a PO that he will probably take, so that stays. They can renounce Chandler to get to 45.9. If they traded Randolph to a team with space, they'd end up at 42.99 mil. Still a good, what, 5 million per year less than re-signing with Denver? That's a lot of risk for "cold feet" causing Melo to extend with Denver.


2. Accumulating assets and options. As Roy has pointed out elsewhere, in order for NY to sign Melo to the max, they would have to renounce the rights to guys like Azubuike and Chandler anyway, so trading Chandler doesn't really "count," if you will. So this trade is really about giving up just Gallinari and a fairly pedestrian pick for the security of locking up Melo and knowing he won't change his mind. Considering Gallinari and Melo play the same position, not a bad deal for NYK.

Additionally, they get to hold onto some options regarding lesser players. Don't sleep on my binky Azubuike!! By trading for Melo they can keep his bird rights, and maybe, if they see behind the scenes he's healthy, they can lock him up for a few years at a bargain. He'd be a dynamic side-kick or trade piece if he gets back to pre injury form. Shawne williams has looked like a decent player too. I don't think they have bird rights, but they may be able to use early bird rights or something to sign him (if another team doesn't like him more) which they may have had to renounce to try to sign Melo outright.Furthermore, NY actually has more options if they stay OVER the cap. Remember, currently you only get the MLE and LLE if you are over the cap. To be under the cap you must renounce both of those. So by trading for Melo, you stay over the cap and get to use both. So REALLY, it's the difference between Gallo+First+Melo+Felton vs. Melo+Billups+MLE+LLE+options/control on Azubuike/Shawne Williams.

To break it down:
Felton/Fields
Douglas/Fields
Melo/Gallo
Amare/Gallo
Mozgov/Turiaf

Plus a bad draft pick (own or Houston; houston's choice), plus vet contracts, plus whatever pick they'd keep by getting rid of Randolph to clear cap room.

OR:

Billups/Fields
Douglas/Azubuike
Melo/Shawne Willimas/Balkman
Amare/Turiaf
Mozgov/Turiaf

Plus a bad draft pick (own or Houston), plus vet mins, PLUS full MLE, LLE.

[cman88]

NYC wasnt going to win a championship with this roster. They'd be the Atlanta hawks basically. First round one and done.

Sure they are gutting their starting lineup, but getting Melo and pairing him with Stoudemire,billups and getting a few role players over the next couple years should make them a solid team.

sometimes have you have to give up quality to get some.

[Roy H.]

Good post.  I think that's the only way to look at it. 

[mgent]

I think if it's available Chandler, Gallo, Felton, and a first for Melo and Billups is a great trade.

Although I finally checked their salary situation and it's not as bad as I thought with Curry finally coming off the books.  I think waiting is a perfectly good option as well.

Felton/Douglas
Fields/Douglas
Chandler/Gallo
Melo/Gallo
Amare
+they keep the 1st

That core could be attainable if they could find a way to move 1 or 2 of Randolph, Mozgov, or Turiaf (PO).  If they can't they've got the backup of denying Chandler's QO.  I think that's worth the chance if Melo really wants to go to NY and doesn't sign the extension.  Add a couple MLE's and they could easily contend for a top 4 seed depending on what happens in Boston and Orlando.

[Fan from VT]

I think if it's available Chandler, Gallo, Felton, and a first for Melo and Billups is a great trade.

Although I finally checked their salary situation and it's not as bad as I thought with Curry finally coming off the books.  I think waiting is a perfectly good option as well.

Felton/Douglas
Fields/Douglas
Chandler/Gallo
Melo/Gallo
Amare
+they keep the 1st

That core could be attainable if they could find a way to move 1 or 2 of Randolph, Mozgov, or Turiaf (PO).  If they can't they've got the backup of denying Chandler's QO.  I think that's worth the chance if Melo really wants to go to NY and doesn't sign the extension.  Add a couple MLE's and they could easily contend for a top 4 seed depending on what happens in Boston and Orlando.

I gotta quibble on a few points:

1. If they sign Melo outright as a FA in Summer 2011, they don't get the MLE or LLE until 2012. You lose those if you go under the cap.

2. The "pick" in the proposed trade and that they could "keep" in your scenario doesn't actually exist yet. It is a theoretical pick based on the premise (99% likely) that just before the Melo trade they'd be able to swap Randolph for a first from someone else (likely Minny). So it's either they keep randolph OR they get a pick for him. Essentially, the deal in question is REALLY:

NY gives Curry, Chandler, Gallo, Randolph, Felton
NY gets Melo, Balkman, Williams, Billups

Team X give 1st rounder,
Team X gets Randolph

Denver gives Melo, Balkman, Williams, Billups
Denver gets 1st rounder, Curry, Chandler, Gallo, Felton.

3. Melo makes 17,149,244 this year. So he's able to earn up to 8-10% above that or so as the base in his next salary. Cap is around 56 million, so, conservatively, if they want to start Anthony at 17 million (already 1 million below what he gets next year if he just picks up his PO), the need to get down to 39 million. The roster as is next year is at 49 million. I have them at 44.3 million guaranteed IF they renounce Fields, Rautin, AND let chandler go. That's just 11-12 million per year at most; that's 6-7 million per year left on the table. Ouch. If they keep chandler, they have to figure out teams with cap room to deal Mozgov AND Turiaf AND Randolph for no returning salary to get down into room for a max deal. And they wouldn't have the MLE. Or they need to renounce Chandler and deal 2 of Mozgov, Turiaf, Randolph for no returning contracts. Considering teams under the cap are rebuilding, NY would likely have to deal the Mozgov/Turiaf contracts WITH extra assets (second round picks) for a rebuilding team to eat the contract.

[birdwatcher]

Who cares if Melo goes to NY if they still don't make a commitment to defense?

[Fan from VT]

Who cares if Melo goes to NY if they still don't make a commitment to defense?

I wonder how much is coaching and how much is personnel?

Phoenix's defensive ranks:

'03-'04: 24th (D'Antoni takes over during season)
'04-'05: 17th
'05-'06: 16th (and better than league average)
'06-'07: 13th
'07-'08: 16th
'08-'09: 26th (First year post-D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 23rd
'10-'11: 25th

New York:
'03-'04: 15th
'04-'05: 24th
'05-'06: 26th
'06-'07: 25th
'07-'08: 29th
'08-'09: 23th (First year of D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 27th
'10-'11: 20th


Considering how putrid Phoenix's defense got when D'Antoni left, and how putrid NY's defense has been since before D'Antoni got here (and it's on the upswing this year despite a couple seasons of totally gutting the roster), I'd say D'Antoni is an "average" defensive coach, and clearly an above average offensive one. If they take another season or two to fully refine the roster and decide to keep D'Antoni through it all, we could see an interesting and dangerous team.

[Tai]

I gotta wonder if the CBA will include MLE, LLE, and vet min. and all that.

 

[BballTim]

Who cares if Melo goes to NY if they still don't make a commitment to defense?

I wonder how much is coaching and how much is personnel?

Phoenix's defensive ranks:

'03-'04: 24th (D'Antoni takes over during season)
'04-'05: 17th
'05-'06: 16th (and better than league average)
'06-'07: 13th
'07-'08: 16th
'08-'09: 26th (First year post-D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 23rd
'10-'11: 25th

New York:
'03-'04: 15th
'04-'05: 24th
'05-'06: 26th
'06-'07: 25th
'07-'08: 29th
'08-'09: 23th (First year of D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 27th
'10-'11: 20th


Considering how putrid Phoenix's defense got when D'Antoni left, and how putrid NY's defense has been since before D'Antoni got here (and it's on the upswing this year despite a couple seasons of totally gutting the roster), I'd say D'Antoni is an "average" defensive coach, and clearly an above average offensive one. If they take another season or two to fully refine the roster and decide to keep D'Antoni through it all, we could see an interesting and dangerous team.

  The late season trade of Marion in 07-08 and the early season trade of Bell and Diaw in 08-09 probably had more to do with the defense that Dantoni leaving Phoenix.

[Fan from VT]

Who cares if Melo goes to NY if they still don't make a commitment to defense?

I wonder how much is coaching and how much is personnel?

Phoenix's defensive ranks:

'03-'04: 24th (D'Antoni takes over during season)
'04-'05: 17th
'05-'06: 16th (and better than league average)
'06-'07: 13th
'07-'08: 16th
'08-'09: 26th (First year post-D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 23rd
'10-'11: 25th

New York:
'03-'04: 15th
'04-'05: 24th
'05-'06: 26th
'06-'07: 25th
'07-'08: 29th
'08-'09: 23th (First year of D'Antoni)
'09-'10: 27th
'10-'11: 20th


Considering how putrid Phoenix's defense got when D'Antoni left, and how putrid NY's defense has been since before D'Antoni got here (and it's on the upswing this year despite a couple seasons of totally gutting the roster), I'd say D'Antoni is an "average" defensive coach, and clearly an above average offensive one. If they take another season or two to fully refine the roster and decide to keep D'Antoni through it all, we could see an interesting and dangerous team.

  The late season trade of Marion in 07-08 and the early season trade of Bell and Diaw in 08-09 probably had more to do with the defense that Dantoni leaving Phoenix.

There are mitigating factors each season. However, the point is that I think D'Antoni takes flack for "not caring" about defense or being incapable of coaching defense. I think this is not true. I don't think he emphasizes it as much as many, but with the right players, he's fully capable of having an "average" team defense. I think people see high raw scores and say "bad defense" without looking closer; average defense with a high number of possessions (for both you and the opposition) can yield high raw scores while you win a majority of games. And, unfortunately, if Joe Johnson doesn't break his eye then key Suns players are suspended after a Horry cheap shot, we probably don't need to have this discussion.

[pearljammer10]

I think if it's available Chandler, Gallo, Felton, and a first for Melo and Billups is a great trade.

Although I finally checked their salary situation and it's not as bad as I thought with Curry finally coming off the books.  I think waiting is a perfectly good option as well.

Felton/Douglas
Fields/Douglas
Chandler/Gallo
Melo/Gallo
Amare
+they keep the 1st

That core could be attainable if they could find a way to move 1 or 2 of Randolph, Mozgov, or Turiaf (PO).  If they can't they've got the backup of denying Chandler's QO.  I think that's worth the chance if Melo really wants to go to NY and doesn't sign the extension.  Add a couple MLE's and they could easily contend for a top 4 seed depending on what happens in Boston and Orlando.

I think its a fairly solid deal for both teams. Knicks give up a ton here but they do get a top 5 player in the game along with the veteran presence of Billups. It would be interesting to see D'Antoni coach this team.

Denver gets a real solid point guard, and a few solid assets along with Curry's expiring to save them some money and put them in a decent direction toward rebuilding. The Nets off with the boat load of draft picks might be more appealing but I think this Knicks deal is the best to make everybody happy.

[mgent]

I think if it's available Chandler, Gallo, Felton, and a first for Melo and Billups is a great trade.

Although I finally checked their salary situation and it's not as bad as I thought with Curry finally coming off the books.  I think waiting is a perfectly good option as well.

Felton/Douglas
Fields/Douglas
Chandler/Gallo
Melo/Gallo
Amare
+they keep the 1st

That core could be attainable if they could find a way to move 1 or 2 of Randolph, Mozgov, or Turiaf (PO).  If they can't they've got the backup of denying Chandler's QO.  I think that's worth the chance if Melo really wants to go to NY and doesn't sign the extension.  Add a couple MLE's and they could easily contend for a top 4 seed depending on what happens in Boston and Orlando.

I gotta quibble on a few points:

1. If they sign Melo outright as a FA in Summer 2011, they don't get the MLE or LLE until 2012. You lose those if you go under the cap.

2. The "pick" in the proposed trade and that they could "keep" in your scenario doesn't actually exist yet. It is a theoretical pick based on the premise (99% likely) that just before the Melo trade they'd be able to swap Randolph for a first from someone else (likely Minny). So it's either they keep randolph OR they get a pick for him. Essentially, the deal in question is REALLY:

NY gives Curry, Chandler, Gallo, Randolph, Felton
NY gets Melo, Balkman, Williams, Billups

Team X give 1st rounder,
Team X gets Randolph

Denver gives Melo, Balkman, Williams, Billups
Denver gets 1st rounder, Curry, Chandler, Gallo, Felton.

3. Melo makes 17,149,244 this year. So he's able to earn up to 8-10% above that or so as the base in his next salary. Cap is around 56 million, so, conservatively, if they want to start Anthony at 17 million (already 1 million below what he gets next year if he just picks up his PO), the need to get down to 39 million. The roster as is next year is at 49 million. I have them at 44.3 million guaranteed IF they renounce Fields, Rautin, AND let chandler go. That's just 11-12 million per year at most; that's 6-7 million per year left on the table. Ouch. If they keep chandler, they have to figure out teams with cap room to deal Mozgov AND Turiaf AND Randolph for no returning salary to get down into room for a max deal. And they wouldn't have the MLE. Or they need to renounce Chandler and deal 2 of Mozgov, Turiaf, Randolph for no returning contracts. Considering teams under the cap are rebuilding, NY would likely have to deal the Mozgov/Turiaf contracts WITH extra assets (second round picks) for a rebuilding team to eat the contract.

1. I meant in the future.

3. I didn't look at it too closely but I had the 6 guys I listed adding up to 35mil.  That's if they can get rid of the expiring contracts of Randolph and Mosgov plus the PO for Turiaf.  Minus cap holds that should be about 18 million to sign Melo.  And if they can't dump one of Randolph or Mosgov they can just not pick up the QO for Chandler.