http://offthedribble.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/01/27/celtics-perkins-the-some-stats-all-star/Interesting piece from the New York Times on the sabremetric value of Kendrick Perkins.
Some interesting tidbits:
Perkins’ per-game averages have never been all that impressive, but oddly enough, the box score may provide his most direct statistical comfort. Last season, Perkins averaged 10.1 points and 7.6 rebounds in just 27.6 minutes, which translates to 13.2 points and 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. Not bad, really, even if it doesn’t begin to approach his perceived defensive import. Yet if we turn to the kinds of criteria that made Battier a “star,” Perkins is oddly sub-par. Over his last two seasons of action, Perkins has posted a -5.76 adjusted plus/minus, one of the worst marks in the league. Adjusted plus/minus is far from infallible, but characteristically it favors guys who fall in line with Perkins’ reputation: tough-defending, solid-rebounding, low-usage role players on winning teams. Adjusted on/off measures are supposed to be where Perkins shines, and yet the numbers show him as a genuine hindrance.
But the author goes on to qualify:
When we look at the same measures of individual defensive success that served as a gold star for Battier, Perkins’ individual defense doesn’t hold up, either. In each of his last two seasons, Perkins has allowed opposing centers to produce at an above average rate, a curiosity for a well-regarded player whose primary contributions come on the defensive end.
That last part seems particularly contrary; Perkins is perhaps most renowned for his one-on-one defense against Orlando’s Dwight Howard in the playoffs, and in those instances, he played well as an integral part of the Celtics’ defensive game plan. Yet according to these metrics, Perkins doesn’t make the Celtics better. Is this really just another case of statistics offering clarification where our observations fail?
Hardly. Instead, just as the Rockets looked deeper to ascertain Battier’s true worth, we’ll have to dig more to reveal the numbers that more accurately assess what Perkins does to benefit his team. When we say that Perkins is a good individual defender, what we really mean is that he defends effectively in the low post, where’s he called to put his size and defensive skill to use while also competing for boards. Put simply: that’s where Perkins is most useful.
It’s also where Perkins makes a measurable statistical impact that cannot be denied or discounted. According to Synergy Sports Technology, Perkins allowed just 0.77 points per possession in the post during the 2009-10 season, a truly impressive mark. Opponents on the low block shot just 38.5 percent despite their proximity to the basket, and Perkins, amazingly, fouled opponents on only 6.3 percent of their post-up possessions. Go back to the 2008-09 season and the numbers get even better: 0.73 points per possession allowed and 35.4 percent shooting.
Great read.
I've always thought, however, Battier's impact is overstated. A good role player, nothing more than that.
Topic: Is Perkins a "Some-Stats All Star"? Overrated? (Read 1695 times)