Here we are after (at least) 41 games completed. The contenders are starting to differentiate themselves based on record as the sample size increases.
Despite a quarter-season review I posted here being mostly dissed/ignored, I submit today a similar analysis of the 3 contenders, based on a minimum W-L record of 70%, with one team added (as the 1/2) due to hype/popularity/controversy/rounding up. Enjoy!
Without further ado, here's the NBA 1st-half Contender Review:
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
The Boston Celtics. That's it. One contender. The only team that wins convincingly vs the leagues' winning teams and squeaks out (most) games while coasting over lousy teams, with multiple players injured hampering their efforts. Every other team is just playing for 2nd.
How do the statistics (from ESPN/Stats LLC) support this conclusion?
Celtics 32-9, .780 (2nd best record in the league, SOS 23rd, .486) Pace, 64-18
Home, 20-3; Rd 12-6, Conf 25-5 (all 2nd); OT 3-0 (Tie 1st)
Conference lead, 3 games over Heat; Div lead 10 gm over Knicks
Record vs current .500+ teams: 13-5 (2nd)
Record vs .500+ teams (date of game): 12-6 (3rd)
Pts: 99.4 (14th); Opp pts 92.1 (1st); Avg win margin +7.3 (3rd)
L10 8-2 (T 1st), streak W4 (T 3rd)
FG% .504, Adj FG% .539, TS% .577 (1st); Opp FG% .440 (5th); FG% diff 6.332 (1st)
3-pt FG% .387 (3rd); Opp 3-pt FG% .348 (8th); 3-pt FG% diff +4.1% (3rd)
FTA's pg 22.3 (27th); FT% .751 (19th); FTA's pg diff -3.0 (T 26th)
Rpg 32.8 (30th); Reb rate 49.9 (16th); rpg diff -0.2 (16th); reb % .499 (16th)
Apg 24.6 (1st); Opp apg 18.7 (1st)
Steals 8.2 (T 5th); Opp stl 6.8 (T 6th)
Blocks 4.5 (T 19th); Opp blk 4.0 (3rd)
Turnovers 14.6 (T 16th); Opp TOs 15.8 (T 4th); TO diff -1.2 (T 4th)
Ast/TO 1.69 (T 3rd)
Off eff 106.4 (10th); Def eff 98.5 (2nd) Eff diff 7.96 (3rd)
Technicals 52 (3rd)
PER (through 1/17) 16.24 (4th)
SUMMARY: When you consider the amount of time missed by various starters/key reserves this season, the Celtics are simply phenomenal, both offensively (as the FG% and assist stats indicate), and defensively (as the points against and FG% differential show). Top 2 in the league in 15 different stats, bottom 2 in just 1, as shown above.
Their few flaws are in qty of fta's and fta differential, rebounding (affected by such things as their high FG% and lack of Perk/JO/KG/Shaq), injury-prone bigs, backup PG play (which should improve when Delonte comes back), and inconsistent bench scoring (can't find team stats for the current season for starter/bench comparison - if anyone knows where they are please let me know).
As with all teams, the health situation going into the playoffs will be a key factor in the Celtics making the finals, but if the starters are reasonably healthy they are the only reasonable choice as far as predicting which team will come out of the east.
Miami Heat 30-13, .698 (4th best record in the league, SOS 22nd, .489)
Home, 15-5 (8th); Rd 15-8 (4th), Conf 19-6 (3rd); OT 2-2 (tie 12th)
Div lead 2 gm over Hawks
Record vs current .500+ teams: 8-10 (9th)
Record vs .500+ teams (date of game): 12-10 (8th)
Pts: 101.3 (10th); Opp pts 93.7 (5th); Avg win margin +7.6 (2nd)
L10 6-4 (tie 8th), streak L4 (tie 26th)
FG% .470 (4th), Adj FG% .514 (8th), TS% .564 (T 5th); Opp FG% .428 (2nd); FG % diff +4.177 (2nd)
3-pt FG% .377 (7th); Opp 3-pt FG% .321 (2nd); 3-pt FG% diff +5.6 (1st)
FTA's pg 28.5 (3rd); FT% .771 (13th); FTA's pg diff +4.0 (4th)
Rpg 42.9 (8th); Reb rate 51.4 (T 6th); rpg diff +2.3 (7th); reb % .514 (T 6th)
Apg 19.6 (27th); Opp apg 20.6 (11th)
Steals 6.5 (T 26th); Opp stl 6.7 (T 4th)
Blocks 5.5 (T 8th); Opp blk 2.9 (1st)
Turnovers 13.6 (T 6th); Opp TOs 13.4 (T 27th); TO diff +0.2 (T 18th)
Ast/TO 1.45 (T 18th)
Off eff 108.3 (5th); Def eff 99.1 (3rd) Eff diff 9.2 (2nd)
Technicals 44 (7th)
PER (through 1/17) 16.45 (3rd)
SUMMARY:The Heat are, as everyone is well aware, completely unique in NBA history, primarily due to their roster and how it was formed. This isn't a good thing, with their 3 stars accounting for somewhere between 65-90% of their points in any given game...
With the 4th-best record in the league, I felt I should include them, although a team with this many issues can't seriously be considered a legit Finals contender unless KG is out in the playoffs (consider the 3rd-worst assists per game as symptomatic of their issues). The likelihood of the Heat losing to one of the other of the East's more complete teams like the Bulls, Hawks, or Magic prior to the ECF is at least 50-50. Top 2 in the league in 7 different stats, bottom 2 in none, as shown above.
Their flaws are many and varied, and have been debated/discussed ad nauseum since before the season started, but the most obvious is the reliance on three players, the less than championship-level Center and PG positions, and the thin bench - all meaning that this team, more than any other, can't afford even a hobbled (much less out) member of their big three. It will take key injuries to the other more complete teams and some of the league's signature ref help for this team to come out of the East.
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
The Spurs, and the 2-time defending NBA champion Lakers. That's all. One is playing the best in their history, hardly any injury issues all season so far, still on pace for 70-12 halfway through; and the other appearing to be a lazy, declining, dysfunctional team struggling to post the league's 3rd-best record - despite the easiest schedule of any team - as they try to become just the 4th team in the modern era to threepeat, all coached by Phil Jackson. Some point to the Mavericks as a 3rd West contender, but with their disappointing playoff history, I believe they are just playing for 3rd place at best.
San Antonio Spurs, 36-6, .857 (best record in the league, SOS 10th, .514) Pace, 70-12
Home, 23-2, Rd 13-4, Conf 24-3 (all 1st); OT 3-0 (T 1st)
Conf lead 6 gm over the Lakers, Div lead 8.5 gm over the Mavs
Record vs current .500+ teams: 15-5 (1st)
Record vs .500+ teams (date of game): 17-5(1st)
Pts: 104.7 (5th); Opp pts 96.8 (12th); Avg win margin +7.9 (1st)
L10 8-2 (T 1st), streak W7 (1st)
FG% .470 (5th), Adj FG% .522 (4th), TS% .565 (4th); Opp FG% .451 (T 13th); FG % diff +1.898 (8th)
3-pt FG% .396 (2nd); Opp 3-pt FG% .392 (29th); 3-pt FG% diff +0.4 (17th)
FTA's pg 25.1 (T 11th); FT% .778 (10th); FT diff pg +4.7 (3rd)
Rpg 43.3 (6th); Reb rate 51.0 (T 8th); rpg diff +1.7 (8th); reb % .510 (T 8th)
Apg 23.2 (T 5th); Opp apg 20.4 (T 9th)
Steals 8.1 (7th); Opp stl 7.1 (T 9th)
Blocks 5.0 (14th); Opp blk 4.9 (T 16th)
Turnovers 13.7 (T 8th); Opp TOs 14.5 (14th); TO diff -0.8 (9th)
Ast/TO 1.69 (T 3rd)
Off eff 109.6 (1st); Def eff 100.2 (7th) Eff diff 9.4 (1st)
Technicals 27 (T 22nd)
PER (through 1/17) 16.97 (1st)
SUMMARY:The Spurs are the best team in the league in the 1st half, 3.5 games ahead of the Celtics with 1 more game played. According to ESPN, 66.7% (4-6) of the teams achieving 35-6 records at the halfway point have finished as champions.
Although they have cooled off slightly from their earlier torrid 3-pt shooting pace, they still remain at or near the top of many key metrics for success, one of the most impressive being the avg margin of victory (just under 8.0 ppg) with a 10th-best schedule strength. Best road record, best record vs 500+ teams, and best home record is quite a combination. Just 2 losses by double digits. Just 1 loss to a below .500 team (the Clippers). Top 2 in the league in 14 different stats, bottom 2 in one, as shown above.
Their flaws are few, chiefly their poor 3-pt shooting defense, and overall defensive inconsistency. Frontcourt size is also an issue, with the starters being center Tim Duncan at 6'11", with PF DeJuan Blair at 6'7", and SF Richard Jefferson also 6'7". Backup C Tiago Splitter is 6'11", with backup PFs Matt Bonner 6'10" and Antonio McDyess is 6'9 - so the Lakers have the size advantage. Still, the Spurs are the clearcut favorite to win their 5th title (unless you're a Celtics or Lakers fan).
Los Angeles Lakers, 31-13, .705(3rd best record in the league, SOS 30th, .454) Pace, 58-24
Home, 17-5 (T 5th); Rd 13-4 (5th); Conf 16-9 (T 7th); OT 0-0
Div lead 10 gm over the Suns
Record vs current .500+ teams: 6-6 (6th)
Record vs .500+ teams (date of game): 13-8(4th)
Pts: 103.3 (7th); Opp pts 96.4 (11th); Avg win margin +7.0 (4th)
L10 8-2 (T 1st), streak L1 (T 16th)
FG% .468 (7th), Adj FG% .510 (10th), TS% .554 (T 9th); Opp FG% .437 (3rd); FG % diff +3.108 (4th)
3-pt FG% .368 (T 11th); Opp 3-pt FG% .340 (5th); 3-pt FG% diff +0.28 (6th)
FTA's pg 24.4 (16th); FT% .785 (8th); FTA's pg diff +3.8 (5th)
Rpg 44.4 (2nd); Reb rate 52.1 (3rd); rpg diff +3.5 (3rd); reb % .521 (3rd)
Apg 22.2 (10th); Opp apg 22.3 (T 23rd)
Steals 7.6 (T 11th); Opp stl 7.6 (T 20th)
Blocks 5.2 (14th); Opp blk 4.8 (T 13th)
Turnovers 13.7 (T 8th); Opp TOs 13.7 (T 23rd); TO diff 0.0 (15th)
Ast/TO 1.62 (T 7th)
Off eff 108.9 (3rd); Def eff 101.6 (T 8th) Eff diff 7.3 (4th)
Technicals 39 (T 10th)
PER (through 1/17) 16.76 (2nd)
SUMMARY:The Lakers have simply looked like they aren't up to the task of coming out of the West - their performance has been far from championship-level, as their 6-6 record vs current .500+ teams indicates. Top 2 in the league in just 2 of the above stats; bottom 2 in none.
Whether they will be able to overcome an almost certain lack of HCA in the playoffs remains to be seen - and with the obvious decline in Kobe and Derek Fisher's skills, a more troubling decline in Pau Gasol's performance so far, and their usual issues with Bynum missing time and backup bigs (with the exception of Odom) being mediocre at best, the task ahead of getting to the Finals can only be more difficult than the previous three years has been.
That being said, they do match up well sizewise with the Spurs, and have had key calls go their way in the playoffs several times before - so when predicting which team makes the Finals, it just seems like wishful thinking to say the Spurs will be able to overcome the Lakers, even with HCA.
It just seems destined to be another Celtics-Lakers Finals!
Topic: Midseason Contender Review (STILL just 3 1/2 legit contenders)- the 70% Cutoff (Read 1260 times)