Perk's Contract

[Neurotic Guy]

Somehow it had eluded me that Perk is in the last year of his contract.  Reviewing salaries today on Hoopshype, I noticed that he is indeed a Free Agent at the end of this season. I am guessing this has been discussed here, so I am sorry if I'm bringing up yesterday's news, but I wonder what folks here hope and/or expect to occur.

I am aware that Perk's recovery is a key variable regarding a future deal, but for arguments sake, let's assume he does as expected and makes a modest comeback this season leaving teams to draw the conclusion that he'll ultimately have a complete recovery.

If this occurs, what will Wyc and co. do to secure his services and what competition do you expect from other teams?

Any sense that loyalty to C's would result in a reasonable and quick hometown contract, or does this look like the opportunity for Perk to secure long-term secuity for him and his family? 

Who is his agent and what impact will that have on negotiations?

I am a fan of Perk as I believe him to be a unique player in the league. He's obviously not an offensive juggernaut, but his strength, defensive skill, intensity and work ethic tell me he'll provide value (depending on the size of the contract). He's still a maturing person and player which I think bodes well for a team to take a chance on a long-term deal.  Will it price (or length) Boston out of the market? 

Thoughts? 

[Edgar]

with his injury his contract will not worth more than its worth right now.
Specially because he will se his time limited and his role decreased in this tea
Hopefully we will get him with a similar contract than he have this year.

[Who]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

[youcanthandlethetruth113]

with his injury his contract will not worth more than its worth right now.
Specially because he will se his time limited and his role decreased in this tea
Hopefully we will get him with a similar contract than he have this year.

Yeah I agree with Edgar, although I could see a GM overpaying for him in a heartbeat, forcing Danny into a tough situation.

Look back on how Danny handled the Leon Powe situation....he got that one right.

[Fafnir]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

Only way that happens is if Perkins is ineffective in his return, so I can't say that's my dream scenario. The C's have such a good chance to win again.

[Neurotic Guy]

I do understand the tenuous nature of signing someone with injury issues.  However, IF Perk comes back even reasonably well, I have to believe there will be a GM out there who will put money and years on the table for him.  As said here, Danny is then put in a tough situation -- how high/long does he go?

I agree with WHO that a 1 year scenario would be ideal -- possibly for both sides.  Perk may opt to gamble that his value will soar if he produces in 2011-12.  That, however, is a gamble on both sides.   

[Who]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

Only way that happens is if Perkins is ineffective in his return, so I can't say that's my dream scenario. The C's have such a good chance to win again.

They could grossly overpay to keep it to one year. Maybe. Hopefully.

[GreenEnvy]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

Only way that happens is if Perkins is ineffective in his return, so I can't say that's my dream scenario. The C's have such a good chance to win again.

They could grossly overpay to keep it to one year. Maybe. Hopefully.

That would be my preference. We are over the cap regardless next season.

So, if two important things occur:

A) He can come back and look like the same player or close to it (thankfully he wasn't a high-flying, athletic player)
B) There is no prolonged lockout

Then I think we can afford to give him something like $9-10M for 2011. That could be enough, but with the contracts that were given out this past offseason, maybe he gets offered 5yr/$65M from some team.

[jambr380]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

Only way that happens is if Perkins is ineffective in his return, so I can't say that's my dream scenario. The C's have such a good chance to win again.

They could grossly overpay to keep it to one year. Maybe. Hopefully.

I think you are on the right track. I know the money in a contract usually increases as years go by on it, but is there anyway they could pay a lot of money up front and then 'grossly' decrease the dollar amount - say a 30 mill / 4 year deal where they pay 12-15 mill in his first year?

[Roy H.]

Assuming that the CBA doesn't radically change, I could definitely see multiple teams giving Perk the full MLE, regardless of injury issues.  He would be a perfect fit on Miami, for instance.

I'd give Perk something like 3 years, $21 million, with the 3rd year partially guaranteed.

[Roy H.]

. . . is there anyway they could pay a lot of money up front and then 'grossly' decrease the dollar amount - say a 30 mill / 4 year deal where they pay 12-15 mill in his first year?

Decreases can be no more than 10.5% of the first year value of the contract.

[GreenEnvy]

Dream scenario -- a one year contract that leaves 2012 Free Agency options open.

Only way that happens is if Perkins is ineffective in his return, so I can't say that's my dream scenario. The C's have such a good chance to win again.

They could grossly overpay to keep it to one year. Maybe. Hopefully.

I think you are on the right track. I know the money in a contract usually increases as years go by on it, but is there anyway they could pay a lot of money up front and then 'grossly' decrease the dollar amount - say a 30 mill / 4 year deal where they pay 12-15 mill in his first year?

I'm pretty sure under the current CBA (which we should assume things will change, perhaps drastically) that salaries from year to year can only change by a certain percentage (I wanna say 15%?). So they couldn't pay him 15,7,5,3 or something like that.

But maybe (doubtful) we get unguaranteed contracts in the new CBA.

[GreenEnvy]

Assuming that the CBA doesn't radically change, I could definitely see multiple teams giving Perk the full MLE, regardless of injury issues.  He would be a perfect fit on Miami, for instance.

I'd give Perk something like 3 years, $21 million, with the 3rd year partially guaranteed.

What if we give him $12 million for one season?

I don't think we will, Ainge doesn't seem like the guy who will roll the dice on the future of the team by relying on someone like Howard (or whoever) to come here. We would lose our MLE and have to also rely on KG/Ray to come here for vet min deals.

Some may think he put all his eggs in the 2007 draft lottery, but I think we all know his "backup" plan didn't work out so bad.

[Who]

Assuming a cap of around $55 million ... the following teams will have $8+ million in cap space:

(1) Indiana -- Roy Hibbert is Indiana's long term center so rule them out.

(2) Houston -- Yao Ming's future is up in the air. I doubt Morey will want to pay a limited player like Perkins a large long term deal though.

(3) Memphis -- Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will be free agents. They'll almost definitely choose Gasol over Perk anyways. So rule them out.

(4) Milwaukee -- Andrew Bogut so they're not in the mix either.

(5) Minnesota -- Hard to know what GM Kahn is thinking. Possible destination for Perk.

(6) New Jersey -- Brook Lopez

(7) New York -- a plodder like Perk doesn't fit into D'Antoni's offense. They should under no circumstances pursue Perkins ... but I'm not sure Donnie Walsh understands that so they might be an option too. Albeit pretty far down the fallback list.

[8] Oklahoma City -- A very good fit. They need a defensive anchor and physical presence at center.

(9) Sacramento -- Doubtful with DeMarcus Cousins pegged as a franchise cornerstone.

(10) Toronto -- Possibly, yeah. They still believe Bargnani is a natural PF playing out of position and they want to improve their defense.

(11) Washington -- Depends on JaVale McGee's future but at the moment that is uncertain so Perk could be a possibility here too.

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Summary

• 11 teams with enough cap space to sign Perkins
• I would rule out five of those teams due to their current options at center (IND, MEM, MIL, NJN, SAC)
• Two more teams that I would deem unlikely to pursue to Perkins (HOU, NYK)
• Three teams with unclear front offices (TOR, MIN, WAS) who may or may not get in the mix for Perk.
• One team who would be a very good fit and who would be likely to pursue a player like Perkins. The Thunder do seem to be highly concerned about long term cap flexibility and their ability to retain their young talent so they may only pursue a guy like Perkins if they can get him on a bargain. I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop out of the race if the contract went above $40 mil/5 years.

So two highly unlikely teams + three maybes + one team who'll be interested in Perk but won't offer silly money.

[P2]

He's young, we have full Bird rights on him and for a title contender having a player with his defensive abilities is absolutely crucial. He can considerably slow down the best big man in the league, simple as that. If we see ourselves as title contender next season, there's no option for us but keeping him.