1/4 NBA Season Review - Just 3 and 1/2 Elite Teams (Lakers aren't - yet )

[nba is the worst]

Hard to believe that a quarter of the season is already in the books, as most teams have now played 20-21 games. (EDIT): I used a pace for 60+ wins as my definition for "elite" status. Here's a review of the early season results, with a short comment for each team (good and bad), surprises, flaws, and some thoughts on the playoff potential for the 6 best teams down below the full list...

BASED SOLELY ON W-L RECORD (in descending order), here's the short list of contenders to this point:

1. Spurs 17-3: Most surprising early season team
2. Mavericks 16-4: Chandler making a big difference
2. Celtics 16-4: Arguably the best on both sides of the ball

31/2. Magic 15-5: I don't believe in Magic, but they are on pace for 62 wins...

Close, with at least some reason(s) to believe:

5. Jazz 15-6: Better without Boozer (especially defensively), road comeback warriors
6. Lakers 14-6: Already lost 4 straight despite easy schedule
7. Nuggets 13-6: Best home record in the league (10-1), but what will happen with 'Melo?
8. Thunder 14-7: W-L record better than the team? FT shooting the difference to this point
9. Hornets 13-7: Heading down after fast start, questionable trade. Thin frontcourt

The .500 and over, without a realistic shot:

10. Heat 13-8: Injured and overrated
11. Hawks 13-8: Lots of jumpers, little defense
12. Knicks 12-9: (9-1 in their last 10) - could there really be 2 teams with winning records in the Atlantic this season?
13. Bulls 10-8: Improving defensively
14. Suns 11-9: No frontcourt size without Lopez
15. Pacers 9-9: Inconsistent but much improved

The bottom half:

16. Blazers 9-11: Always injured
17. Raptors 8-12: Better without Bosh? Record says yes
17. Warriors 8-12: Not much defense
19. Grizzlies 8-13: Some big wins (Heat, Mavs, Lakers)
20. Bucks 7-12: Bogut getting healthy now
21. Rockets 7-13: Brooks back next game
21. Bobcats 7-13: Better on the road
21. Cavs 7-13: Depressed and depressing
24. Pistons 7-14: Kuester not getting it done
25. Wizards 6-13: 0 road wins
26. 76ers 6-14: 5-4 at home, 1-10 on the road
27. Nets 6-15: Not quite as bad as last year
28. Twolves 5-15: Love wasted here
29. Kings 4-14: Has Westphal already lost the team?
30. Clippers 4-17: How long can Griffin stay healthy?

A closer look at the contenders:

Spurs:
Pace: 70-12; Record vs currently .500+ teams: 8-2; Record last 10: 8-2; Streak: W2; Best wins: Magic, @Jazz; Worst loss: @ Clippers
Key Stats: #1 in scoring margin, + 8.9, and 3-pt FG%, .404; #12 in Pts allowed, 97.8; #17 in opponents' FG%, .462. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 2-0, double-digit games: 9-0; OT: 2-0

I don't think anyone thought this team would have the league's best record and longest win streak at the one-quarter mark.
Clearly, Ginobili and Parker not playing in the FIBA this past summer gave them a chance to get healthy for the 1st time in a few years. The Spurs losses are to the Hornets and Mavs, and the one bad loss in a road B2B at the Clippers, and they've had two near misses vs the Twolves as well. The team is well balanced, and could definitely end up coming out of the West.

Mavericks:
Pace: 66-16; Record vs .500+ teams: 8-3; Record last 10: 9-1; Streak: W9; Best wins: @ Denver, Celtics; Worst loss: Grizzlies
Key Stats: #2 in Opponents' FG%, .431; #3 in Pts against, 92.2 and FG%, .474; #6 in scoring margin, + 5.9. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 4-2, double-digit games: 7-1; OT: 0-0

Another team with a surprisingly hot start. Nowitzki is 5th in scoring at 24.9 ppg, and shooting .553 FG% overall. New starter Tyson Chander is at 8.9/9.3 shooting .658 FG%, Jason Kidd is 5th in assists at 9.0 apg. Two things give me doubts about their playoff chances: Jason Terry's shot selection and Rick Carlisle's playoff coaching record.

Celtics:
Pace: 66-16; Record vs .500+ teams: 7-2; Record last 10: 8-2; Streak: W8; Best wins: @ Heat, @Thunder; Worst loss: @ Cavs.
Key Stats: #1 in FG%, .508, adj. FG%, .540, and apg; #5 in Opponents' FG%, .436; #2 in Pts against, 92.1 and in scoring margin, + 8.8. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 1-2, double-digit games: 6-0; OT: 3-0

Celtics are old, but way deep - I would have put them over the Mavs but for the SOS and 0-1 head to head record. Rajon Rondo leads the league in apg at 14.1, and is 5th in steals, 2.3. KG is back to near-2008 numbers, posting 15.6/9.9, Shaq is shooting .684 in this offense, and Pierce leads the team in scoring at 19.0 ppg. Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, and Marquis Daniels are playing much better than last season so far. Only weaknesses are Rondo's ft shooting, lack of health at center, and the backup PG situation.
In my opinion the Celtics are the only true Eastern conference contender, with the usual "if reasonably healthy" disclaimer.

Magic:
Pace: 62-20; Record vs .500+ teams: 5-3; Record last 10: 8-2; Streak: L1; Best wins: @ Bulls, Heat; Worst losses: Raptors, @ Bucks.
Key Stats: #8 in Opponents' FG%, .440; #1 in Pts against, 91.4; #5 in scoring margin, + 7.3. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 3-0, double-digit games: 9-3; OT: 0-0

Magic have had a pretty soft schedule which has helped them to the #1 points-against number. I can't see Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon as upgrades over last season, Lewis continues to underachieve, and so Dwight Howard and his 21.3/12.1 with 2.4 bpg along with Brandon Bass' increase in playing time and Jameer Nelson's slightly better assist numbers are carrying the load. Dwight's post game HAS significantly improved, though, finally - nice to see that a couple of weeks with Hakeem were so productive. JJ Redick seems to be coming out of his early season slump, a good sign for the Magic. They are 1 game behind last year's record at this point, and the 2 home losses to the Jazz (who were on a B2B) and the Raptors don't bode well for the future. Unless they can make a decent trade for Wince's 17 mil expiring at the deadline, I'll be VERY surprised to see this team get past the Celtics...

Jazz:
Pace: 59-13; Record vs .500+ teams: 7-5; Record last 10: 8-2; Streak: L1; Best wins: @ Magic, Lakers; Worst loss: @ Warriors.
Key Stats: #1 in opponents' FG%; #2 in assists per game; #8 in Pts against, 96.7 and FG%, .467; #7 in scoring margin, + 4.3. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 3-0, double-digit games: 9-4; OT: 2-0

Jazz have been another early season surprise in the West, although several here have called their success "lucky".  With a top 5 SOS and including a sweep of a 4-games-in-5-nights road trip at the Heat, Magic, Hawks, and Bobcats, the Jazz are 3 games ahead of last years' pace. PG Deron Williams leads the team with 21.6/10.0, Al Jefferson has been playing well in Jerry Sloan's system averaging 16.9/8.7, while Paul Millsap has seamlessly replaced Carlos Boozer's numbers at 18.4/8.4 on 56.2 FG%, with a (lucky indeed) 57.1% 3-pt FG number. And to lead the league in opponents' FG% says a lot about their commitment to defense. This early season success has been achieved without starting center Mehmet Okur, yet to play due to achilles problems - so it is possible, if highly unlikely, that this team could finally get the Jazz back to the Finals...

Lakers:
Pace: 57-25; Record vs .500+ teams: 2-4 (!); Record last 10: 6-4; Streak: W1; Best win: Bulls; Worst loss: Rockets
Key Stats: #2 in 3-pt FG%, .400; #5 in Opponents' FG%, .436; 15 in Pts against, 99.6; #8 in FG%, .467; #2 in scoring margin, + 8.8. Record in close games (3 pts or less): 1-2, double-digit games: 9-1; OT: 0-0

While it's tempting to write off the Lakers as possible title contenders based on their recent struggles and weak SOS, they DO have a track record of playoff success the past few years which can't be overlooked. After starting the season 8-0 against below .500 teams except for the Suns, the Lakers are just 6-6 in their last 12, including an (unprecedented in the Gasol-era) 4 straight against the Jazz, Pacers, Grizzlies, and Rockets. Sure, they're missing fragile starting center Andrew Bynum, as well as their new 37 y.o. backup center Theo Ratliff, but that shouldn't have been enough to offset the improved bench with newcomers Steve Blake and Matt Barnes joining a better-shooting Shannon Brown - should it? Now Gasol is breaking down under his marginally increased minutes, Phil is complaining about the lack of Bynum's availability, and yet their schedule somehow gets not one bit tougher as they only play 2 of the next 10 vs .500+ teams. It's early enough so that being down 3 games in the race for best record (and playoff HCA) is far from insurmountable - but this Lakers squad arguably has needed HCA in order to achieve playoff success, as the only series they've lost in 3 years was when the Celtics held the home court advantage in 2008...

[housecall]

TP for a great breakdown.

[ACF]

TP for a great breakdown.

[LakersFan_33]

Decent breakdown, but not putting the Lakers as full title contenders based on a few regular season games is a bit ignorant. Without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years, they've been to 3 NBA finals, and have won 2 titles.

I see them elevate their play in the post-season more than any other team, and I see it every year. That's not even homerism, it's just common sense.

[BballTim]

Decent breakdown, but not putting the Lakers as full title contenders based on a few regular season games is a bit ignorant. Without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years, they've been to 3 NBA finals, and have won 2 titles.

I see them elevate their play in the post-season more than any other team, and I see it every year. That's not even homerism, it's just common sense.

  They elevated their play in the post-season more than the Celts did last year?

  By the way, pretty funny that you put in "without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years" when everyone knows that the teams with better records were dispatched by other teams. Just curious, but when was the last time the Lakers won a series without having homecourt advantage?

[LakersFan_33]

Decent breakdown, but not putting the Lakers as full title contenders based on a few regular season games is a bit ignorant. Without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years, they've been to 3 NBA finals, and have won 2 titles.

I see them elevate their play in the post-season more than any other team, and I see it every year. That's not even homerism, it's just common sense.

  They elevated their play in the post-season more than the Celts did last year?

  By the way, pretty funny that you put in "without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years" when everyone knows that the teams with better records were dispatched by other teams. Just curious, but when was the last time the Lakers won a series without having homecourt advantage?

I didn't say they didn't have home court in every game they played and won the past 2 years. I'm pretty sure I said "overall." It's not my fault that the best overall team (Cleveland) choked both years.

[BballTim]

Decent breakdown, but not putting the Lakers as full title contenders based on a few regular season games is a bit ignorant. Without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years, they've been to 3 NBA finals, and have won 2 titles.

I see them elevate their play in the post-season more than any other team, and I see it every year. That's not even homerism, it's just common sense.

  They elevated their play in the post-season more than the Celts did last year?

  By the way, pretty funny that you put in "without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years" when everyone knows that the teams with better records were dispatched by other teams. Just curious, but when was the last time the Lakers won a series without having homecourt advantage?

I didn't say they didn't have home court in every game they played and won the past 2 years. I'm pretty sure I said "overall." It's not my fault that the best overall team (Cleveland) choked both years.

  Slight correction. The best overall team in 08-09 suffered an injury to KG late in the season. I'll give Cleveland 09-10 (regular season only).

[Fafnir]

Decent breakdown, but not putting the Lakers as full title contenders based on a few regular season games is a bit ignorant. Without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years, they've been to 3 NBA finals, and have won 2 titles.

I see them elevate their play in the post-season more than any other team, and I see it every year. That's not even homerism, it's just common sense.

  They elevated their play in the post-season more than the Celts did last year?

  By the way, pretty funny that you put in "without having overall homecourt advantage for the past three years" when everyone knows that the teams with better records were dispatched by other teams. Just curious, but when was the last time the Lakers won a series without having homecourt advantage?

I didn't say they didn't have home court in every game they played and won the past 2 years. I'm pretty sure I said "overall." It's not my fault that the best overall team (Cleveland) choked both years.

BBallTim's point is still a good one. The last time the Laker's won a series without home court advantage Shaq played for the team.

I'm not sure why you'd bring up "without HCA through out" in that way when they haven't won on the road since Shaq/Kobe/Patyon/Malone beat KG/Spreewell without a healthy PG.

[Neurotic Guy]

Hate to agree with a Laker fan but Lakers are certainly contenders and it's wishful thinking to suggest they are not. 

Bynum's return will unfortunately provide rest for Odom and Pau and get them ready for April.  That said, I am pleased that there may actually be some competition in the playoffs for them this year.  Stay healthy Manu.

[Fafnir]

Hate to agree with a Laker fan but Lakers are certainly contenders and it's wishful thinking to suggest they are not. 

Bynum's return will unfortunately provide rest for Odom and Pau and get them ready for April.  That said, I am pleased that there may actually be some competition in the playoffs for them this year.  Stay healthy Manu.

Yeah the Laker are contenders without Bynum and big favorites if he's back and playing well.

But can he stay healthy for a playoff run? So far he's 0-3 for his career.

[Roy H.]

I still think the Celts will have to go through the Heat and Lakers if they're going to win the title this year.  Miami may not be tough enough to win it all this year, but they'll be a lot better than the 10th best team in the NBA.

[Who]

Not convinced San Antonio is a real challenger to the Lakers.

They need to prove they can compete with the Lakers big men in the paint before I put them up there alongside LA.

[Fafnir]

Not convinced San Antonio is a real challenger to the Lakers.

They need to prove they can compete with the Lakers big men in the paint before I put them up there alongside LA.

Splitter has disapointed me with his play so far.

[Who]

Not convinced San Antonio is a real challenger to the Lakers.

They need to prove they can compete with the Lakers big men in the paint before I put them up there alongside LA.

Splitter has disapointed me with his play so far.

Yup, Splitter's level of play has been disappointing.

It's also troubling to see him play so few minutes. I'd love to see him get more playing time alongside the starters and give him a better platform to perform off of.

During Luis Scola's rookie season, the Rockets didn't play him much either during his first two or so months. He was playing more often (about 18-22mpg) and far better than Tiago Splitter has so far ... but it took him awhile to make the transition from Europa to the NBA. Get used to the different pace of the game and the rule differences. So hopefully Splitter will continue to improve throughout the year like Scola did and be a different player by the end of the year.

Because he's been a whopping disappointment so far

[SDCelticsFan]

Great breakdown.  My opinions.

The Lakers are obvious title contenders. They actually have a bench this year outside of Odom.  That being said, they have had quite a bit of luck in that the opponents they faced the last two years had worse records than them and were lower seeds in their conferences thus granting them home court advantage.  The Lakers have yet to obtain the best record in the league this era and they won't have it again this year either.  Pau Gasol himself mentioned the importance of home court importance following the 2008 finals defeat. Los Angeles is very aware of home court importance this year.  They also know deep down the Celtics would have won last year's game 7 if it had been in Boston.  Any Laker fan who says the contrary is lying to themselves.