Vote NOW for the CB Draft Playoffs, Conference Finals (Q&A Thread)

[indeedproceed]

Question for Chicago:

How many minutes do you plan to have Ilyasova on Dirk?  Can Ersan really hang with him?  Can Amundson?

Can Ilyasova hang with Dirk the entire game? Meh.

Minute by minute production based on their 2 head to head games this season, Ilyasova averaged more rebounds, shot better, and producted 21.2 points per 36 minutes, which is 30% higher than his season average. Factor in a whole year starting and a whole year with the NBA 3pt line to get his 3pt% up to around 37%, Ilyasova should rebound better, shoot better, and defend better this season.

Right now he limited Dirk to 27 points per 36 minutes, to his 21.

Regarding Rondo####'s Maggette schpiel....

Maggette has shot, historically going back to 2005, 43% against Lebron James. In his games against LeBron since 2005, Maggette has consistently had either the highest, or second highest Usage rate on his team.

Per 40 numbers in head2Head matchups between Maggette and James since 2005 (as in not counting LeBron's first 2 years in the league, which Rondo continues to harp on like it is relevant):

LeBron: FG%=50%, FGA's=21 FTA's=10, Rebounds=7 Assists=9 Blocks=2, Steals=3, TO's=3 Points=30

Maggette: FG%=43, FGAs=16, FTA's=10, Rebounds=8.5, Assist= 2, Blocks=0, Steals=2.5, TO's=3 Points=24

Corey Maggete brings one thing to the table..and that is scoring. If you let him have the highest usage rate on your team, 43% of the time against LeBron James, he'll score.

LeBron however will score 50% of the time, dish out 9 assists, get 2 blocks and 3 steals, and score 30 points.

There is a reason Corey Maggette is 0-6 against LeBron led teams since 2005, and its not just because of the teams around him. Last year Maggette had Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis in his backcourt, that's a backcourt that dominates the one Dallas has right now, as well as my own. But, Maggette dominates the ball, and you die with him. A Maggette possession=no open dish to Dirk on a kick-out, no look down low for the guy off the pick and roll, ball movement will stop. You let Corey Maggette play his game so he can score his points, your entire team suffers.

[Donoghus]

Wesley Matthews is a very skilled defensive player who will use his defensive abilities, and good game planning (challenging Rose to shoot) to limit D-Rose.

Salmons and Hedo will split Rashard duty. And you're somewhat right Dons, either way it's a slight mismatch offensively. But I think b/c of his lack of lateral quickness, Rashard has a lot tougher of a time defending Salmons/Hedo than Salmons/Hedo will have defending him.

Is there any tangible evidence that Matthews is effective on Rose?

How do you see the minutes breaking down at your SF position?  

[Donoghus]

Question for Chicago:

How many minutes do you plan to have Ilyasova on Dirk?  Can Ersan really hang with him?  Can Amundson?

Can Ilyasova hang with Dirk the entire game? Meh.

Minute by minute production based on their 2 head to head games this season, Ilyasova averaged more rebounds, shot better, and producted 21.2 points per 36 minutes, which is 30% higher than his season average. Factor in a whole year starting and a whole year with the NBA 3pt line to get his 3pt% up to around 37%, Ilyasova should rebound better, shoot better, and defend better this season.

Right now he limited Dirk to 27 points per 36 minutes, to his 21.

Regarding Rondo####'s Maggette schpiel....

Maggette has shot, historically going back to 2005, 43% against Lebron James. In his games against LeBron since 2005, Maggette has consistently had either the highest, or second highest Usage rate on his team.

Per 40 numbers in head2Head matchups between Maggette and James since 2005 (as in not counting LeBron's first 2 years in the league, which Rondo continues to harp on like it is relevant):

LeBron: FG%=50%, FGA's=21 FTA's=10, Rebounds=7 Assists=9 Blocks=2, Steals=3, TO's=3 Points=30

Maggette: FG%=43, FGAs=16, FTA's=10, Rebounds=8.5, Assist= 2, Blocks=0, Steals=2.5, TO's=3 Points=24

Corey Maggete brings one thing to the table..and that is scoring. If you let him have the highest usage rate on your team, 43% of the time against LeBron James, he'll score.

LeBron however will score 50% of the time, dish out 9 assists, get 2 blocks and 3 steals, and score 30 points.

There is a reason Corey Maggette is 0-6 against LeBron led teams since 2005, and its not just because of the teams around him. Last year Maggette had Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis in his backcourt, that's a backcourt that dominates the one Dallas has right now, as well as my own. But, Maggette dominates the ball, and you die with him. A Maggette possession=no open dish to Dirk on a kick-out, no look down low for the guy off the pick and roll, ball movement will stop. You let Corey Maggette play his game so he can score his points, your entire team suffers.

Pretty strong argument and I tend to agree with that last paragraph of yours.

Milwaukee, what's your counter to that? 

[indeedproceed]

Also, I'd like to know how Milwaukee says things like "Maggette will play better with Kidd next to him", and probably believes the same thing about Gortat, but can't seem to fathom a world where Jennings and Ilyasova both get considerably better and efficient playing wth the MVP winner of the last 2 seasons, and the best passing SF since Larry Bird?

Out rebounded, out defended, + a LeBron James/Brandon Jennings pick and roll centric offense=Chicago wins the series.

[nickagneta]

Milwaukee,

Don't you wish you still had Prince and Ray?

LOL. I told IP last night that he might regret the Amare trade but if Rondo hadn't made the Prince for Maggette trade, this would have been a sweep for Milwaukee.

[indeedproceed]

Another little caveat in the LeBron V Maggette debate that has seemingly dominated this conversation:

1-11-2010 against LeBron, Andris Biedrins, GSW's best big man gets 5 fouls in 12 mins.

11-19-2009 against LeBron, Anthony Randolph, GSW's best big man to play (Biedrins was out), 5 fouls, 24 mins

1-23-2009 against LeBron, Ronny Turiaf, GSW's second best big man, 4 fouls, 13 minutes

And it goes on....

So how is Milwaukee going to cope when Gortat, a guy who averages 5 fouls every 36 minutes against primarily backup level talent guys, trying to survive 20 minutes helping on the LeBron pick and roll? Dirk won't help, he can't. He can't risk the fouls and he has to cover Ilyasova.

When Joakim Noah has played Corey Maggette, 2 games, where Noah is averaging 31 mins per contest, he's averaging 3 fouls per 31 minutes. That's what happens when you go from Big Z, a slow-footed big, and Varejao, a total energy guy with little other skills besides man defense, to a total package defensive big fast enough to effectively cover a pick and roll. Maggette doesn't get the fouls, because Noah gets there fast enough to stop a full head of steam.

[Roy H.]

Question for Sacramento:

Does your team have much left in the tank after, presumably, a 7 game series in the semis against Utah?  We've seen teams in the past survive a 7 game series only to simply "run out of gas" in the following series?  How will this be different?

How much do you really think Dampier will slow down Howard?  I'm not really seeing it. Not seeing it with Randolph, either. Also, to me, foul trouble isn't really gonna be a factor this late in the playoffs so I hate to see teams throw out that they might be banking on it.  Is whoever going to be going up against Howard really gonna be able to be effective offensively being guarded by him?

1.  The "gas" factor is one that can't really be answered one way or the other.  I'd like to think that Sacramento is playing with a ton of confidence right now, just having defeated a higher seed on the road in a Game 7.  Sacramento is a veteran team, but not an old one (other than Dampier, who saw limited minutes against Utah).  I don't think fatigue would be a huge concern.  Also, while lots of teams run out of gas after playing 7 games, a lot of teams find that the playoffs get easier as they go deeper.  See, e.g., the 2008 Celtics.

2.  Historically, Dampier has slowed down Howard.  No player in the league is going to stop him, but Dampier has limited his production and has muscled him away from the basket. 

3.  I'm not banking on foul trouble, but it's something to take into account after Howard's last playoff trip.  Phoenix has very little depth, and foul trouble to either of their front court players would doom their team.

4.  Again, historically Carlos Boozer has been very successful when guarded by Howard.  He's averaging 21/10 against him, and is shooting over 50% from the field.  Howard is a great defender, but he doesn't have the ability to shut down every all-star forward or center that he goes up against.  Boozer is one of the guys that has historically played him tough.

[indeedproceed]

Also, a note on Nowitzki, here is my strategy regarding him:

So, he’ll need to run most of it through Dirk. On Nowitzki I’ll have 6’9-6’10 Ersan Ilyasova with his 7’1 wingspan and tenacious defense as the primary defender. On top of that I’ll be rotating Amundson and Noah on Dirk each for periods (with Noah’s being the shortest) to make sure Dirk never gets comfortable shooting one shot. Ilyasova should be able to handle Dirk on the perimeter, but he’ll get bullied a bit at times in the paint. Noah should bully Dirk in the paint, but he’ll be a little slow defending Dirk on the perimeter. Amundson should be able to handle Dirk in both areas, but he’ll forfeit the offense that Ilyasova brings and the rebounding dominance that Noah brings.

The trick is just to keep Dirk from getting comfortable. No help defense on the big fella, just 3 guys with different defensive strengths that each bring something new to the table in terms of defending Nowitzki.

EDIT: Even though Amundson isn't dominant on the boards, he still rebounds at a better rebound rate (total % of rebounds in his time on the floor that Amundson gets) than anyone on Milwaukee's team besides Gortat.

[StartOrien]

Wesley Matthews is a very skilled defensive player who will use his defensive abilities, and good game planning (challenging Rose to shoot) to limit D-Rose.

Salmons and Hedo will split Rashard duty. And you're somewhat right Dons, either way it's a slight mismatch offensively. But I think b/c of his lack of lateral quickness, Rashard has a lot tougher of a time defending Salmons/Hedo than Salmons/Hedo will have defending him.

Is there any tangible evidence that Matthews is effective on Rose?

How do you see the minutes breaking down at your SF position?  

Unfortuantly, there's probably not any evidence that Matthews could/could not cover Rose

If I were to guess, the small forward minutes would be be 24 minutes for Salmons and Hedo with each. They'd both also be etting about 11 at another position.

[StartOrien]

Also again, just cuz it keeps getting thrown out there:

Dwight Howard played in over 38 minutes in his last 9 playoff appearances.

[Fafnir]

Milwaukee,

Don't you wish you still had Prince and Ray?

LOL. I told IP last night that he might regret the Amare trade but if Rondo hadn't made the Prince for Maggette trade, this would have been a sweep for Milwaukee.

They wouldn't sweep the Bulls, but they'd beat them I think.

[Roy H.]

Also again, just cuz it keeps getting thrown out there:

Dwight Howard played in over 38 minutes in his last 9 playoff appearances.

I guess the question becomes, who covers Boozer and Randolph in the other 10+ minutes?  That's 20% of the game, where there's going to be at least one, and possibly two, major mismatches down low.  That, coupled with the mismatch at the PG and the height advantage at SF, mean that Sacramento is going to really exploit Phoenix any time the benches are in the game.

Phoenix doesn't have a Gortat to hold down the fort.  They don't even have a Brandon Bass or a Ryan Anderson.  Phoenix has candidly admitted that it attempted to -- and failed to -- acquire a veteran big.  That is a glaring deficiency with this team.

Depth matters.  If it didn't, we'd only draft starting lineups.  Phoenix has no solid backup big man.  Similarly, Phoenix has Terrence Williams at backup SG, and lacks a "true" backup PG.  In other words, Sacramento, on the other hand, has Zach Randolph, Richard Jefferson, and Courtney Lee on its bench.  For that 20% - 35% of the game that the benches are in the game, Sacramento is just going to dominate.

[Fafnir]

10 votes in, still a lot of votes to be had!

[indeedproceed]

Milwaukee,

Don't you wish you still had Prince and Ray?

LOL. I told IP last night that he might regret the Amare trade but if Rondo hadn't made the Prince for Maggette trade, this would have been a sweep for Milwaukee.

They wouldn't sweep the Bulls, but they'd beat them I think.

Prince makes LeBron's numbers drop across the board. I still think I'd win because Milwaukee doesn't have the tools to defend LeBron in the post, but it would be a much closer contest. If he had Ray Allen + Prince there I'd be even more worried, but for the same reasons I'd still think I'll win.

[nickagneta]

Milwaukee,

Don't you wish you still had Prince and Ray?

LOL. I told IP last night that he might regret the Amare trade but if Rondo hadn't made the Prince for Maggette trade, this would have been a sweep for Milwaukee.

They wouldn't sweep the Bulls, but they'd beat them I think.

Prince makes LeBron's numbers drop across the board. I still think I'd win because Milwaukee doesn't have the tools to defend LeBron in the post, but it would be a much closer contest. If he had Ray Allen + Prince there I'd be even more worried, but for the same reasons I'd still think I'll win.

Yeah, but if your team was playing the 1986 Celtics you would be saying your team would win because Larry couldn't guard Lebron so I guess I will take your admission of winning with a grain of salt