2010 CelticsBlog Draft: Atlantic Division Press Conferences

[nickagneta]

well pierce is what, 34, and ray is 36? hardly a common scenario.

plus, didn't ray play better defense in the playoffs than he had all season? wasn't pierce our leading scored in the playoffs?

I don't think anyone believes we would've fared better with pierce or allen more well rested. we needed a healthy perkins and there was a title in it for us.

I'm referring to the 2009 playoffs when the longer they went in the playoffs the worse they played and looked fatigued. And I am referring strictly to the individual play of Allen and Pierce, Redz, not the Celtics as a whole.

[The Walker Wiggle]

regarding depth....i think it is important. but, it is not feasible to say is important that your cornerpieces have depth, because frankly, if your cornerpieces goes down, you go down. its a fact. even if I  had say luol deng behind lebron, who cares, because if lebron is out, MAYBE I make the playoffs, but probably not...

I'd agree with a lot of that. But there's some compelling evidence that a team's sixth man at least is nearly as important as the starting five. (And conversely players 8 through 13 on the depth chart effect the standings very little.)

But I'm not talking about contingency plans, just the need to have at least three better-than-replacement-level players to fill out a rotation. Or at the very least a compelling argument that your starters are up to playing 40 minutes a game for 75+ games. (But not buying it.)

And I think starting a player with an injury history as severe as Oden's does require having a strong sub. It's not the same thing to say IF Lebron James goes down and IF Greg Oden goes down.

I was very critical of the Crotonauts last summer, and injuries absolutely proved a problem for that team, but Edgar and Roy did have the league's best bench: Ginobili behind Redd, West and Holiday behind Bibby, Miller behind O'Neal, Gomes, Gibson, etc.

Just one crank's 2 cents.

[indeedproceed]

im confused. you're saying they were overused last year and not this one?

[Roy H.]

regarding depth....i think it is important. but, it is not feasible to say is important that your cornerpieces have depth, because frankly, if your cornerpieces goes down, you go down. its a fact. even if I  had say luol deng behind lebron, who cares, because if lebron is out, MAYBE I make the playoffs, but probably not...

I'd agree with a lot of that. But there's some compelling evidence that the team's sixth man is nearly as important as the starting five. (And conversely players 7 through 13 on the depth chart effect the standings very little.)

But I'm not talking about contingency plans, but rather then need to have three to have at least a pair of better than replacement level players to fill out the rotation. Or at the very least a compelling argument that your starters are up to playing 40 minutes a game for 75+ games.

And I think starting a player with an injury history as severe as Oden's does require having a serviceable replacement. It's not the same thing to say IF Lebron James goes down and IF Greg Oden goes down.

I was very critical of the Crotonauts last summer, and injuries absolutely proved a problem for that team, but Edgar and Roy did have the league's best bench: Ginobili behind Redd, West and Holiday behind Bibby, Miller behind O'Neal, Gomes, Gibson, etc.

But just one crank's 2 cents.

Don't forget Jared Dudley and Carlos Delfino.

[Redz]

well pierce is what, 34, and ray is 36? hardly a common scenario.

plus, didn't ray play better defense in the playoffs than he had all season? wasn't pierce our leading scored in the playoffs?

I don't think anyone believes we would've fared better with pierce or allen more well rested. we needed a healthy perkins and there was a title in it for us.

I'm referring to the 2009 playoffs when the longer they went in the playoffs the worse they played and looked fatigued. And I am referring strictly to the individual play of Allen and Pierce, Redz, not the Celtics as a whole.

Could be as much attributable to the heavy minutes they played in the Chicago series, as the regular season.  Perhaps a combo.

Still, dead legs or no, they beat Orlando with KG in `09.

[nickagneta]

im confused. you're saying they were overused last year and not this one?

If you're talking to me, then yes. Pierce and Allen both made comments of overuse during the late winter of 2009 when Doc was running them out there for 40 minutes a night regularly for 2 1/2 months. Then come the 2009 playoffs and the OTs vs Chicago and series versus the Magic, the longer they played the less effective they were. Allen and Pierce were healthy just gassed and it showed.

[indeedproceed]

I agree about oden, but that is the connundrum with picking injured or injury prone players.

but I think that's brelaboring the pt. I think the real solution is if you think a player won't be healthy, either don't pick him or make sure your team is in a position where you could survive his absence.

on the other hand, if you think a player is going to be healthy, roll the dice. nobody here is a doctor, and nobody here knows much more than anyone else. its opinion,  right?

that's why despite me thinking oden will make a go of it this year, I haven't gone after anyone who thinks he won't...its a valid opinion. I might haggle a bit about the odds of him going down, or how effective a healthy oden is, but I won't dispute the notion that he won't be healthy in the end. your guess is probably as good as mine.

[indeedproceed]

maybe im wrong here nick, but didn't ray allen average like 36 minutes per contest this season, and pierce like 34?

if I am wrong, apologies....i can't look up stats from my phone.

[nickagneta]

maybe im wrong here nick, but didn't ray allen average like 36 minutes per contest this season, and pierce like 34?

if I am wrong, apologies....i can't look up stats from my phone.

What's your point? I'm not talking about this year. I'm talking about the year before when Doc had to overuse them due to injuries and lack of depth during January February and March of 2009 which just exhausted them come playoff time.

I can't help think that on a team without good depth, inevitably if they need to win to make the playoffs or get a better seeding that a coach will overplay his starters to get those regular season wins. And if that coach does that the lack of depth, no matter how good the starters will mean a lesser chance come playoff time because of the wear and tear on the starters, especially older starters.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Your guess is probably as good as mine.

I have to disagree. Yes, Oden, Yao and Marquis Daniels could all play 82 games. But seasons worth of evidence to the contrary substantiates my guess. Yes, we're all playing hunches, but not all out comes are equally likely.

Now if you wanted to guess that Josh McRoberts will beat out KD and Lebron for the scoring title that's a hunch I could get behind.

[indeedproceed]

I guess my point is that they still played a ton of minutes this year with the same starting 5 and still made the finals. maybe they had less of a burden, but they still played a ton of minutes. the main difference was that kg was healthy.

[The Walker Wiggle]

But even if we assume Oden plays 70 games. (Fair?) How many minutes can he handle? The Knicks have Nate Robinson and potentially not a single other 20 minute worthy player on their roster.

Take another look at these numbers:

Jordan Hill (5.2 ppg 3.7 rpg 0.4 bpg in 47 games)
Paul George (A raw 20 year old 10th pick that played in relative anonymity, climbed draft boards late.)
Kurt Thomas (3 ppg 4.2 rpg 0.7 bpg in 70 games)
Gerald Henderson (2.6 ppg on .356 FG% 1.3 rpg in 43 games)
Nate Robinson (10.1 ppg on .436 FG% 2.9 apg in 56 games)
Hilton Armstrong (4 year career average of 37 games, 3.4 ppg 2.6 rpg)  

[KCattheStripe]

But even if we assume Oden plays 70 games.

I have no faith that happens.

[Redz]

I guess my point is that they still played a ton of minutes this year with the same starting 5 and still made the finals. maybe they had less of a burden, but they still played a ton of minutes. the main difference was that kg was healthy.

Pierce did play a lot more the year before (here I am defending the guy arguing against my team  )  Pierce played 38 MPG for the year, and as high at 41 MPG in February.  Ray played 36 MPG for the year, but was much more evenly spread out (he peaked at 37.3 MPG in Feb.).  So Ray played about the same as he did this past season.

Again, I think it was the heavy minutes in the Chicago series though that really killed them.

[Who]

But even if we assume Oden plays 70 games. (Fair?) How many minutes can he handle?

I am thinking about 28 minutes a night for Oden.

About 32 minutes a game for Kenyon. About 12mpg for K.Thomas and around 25 minutes a game for Jordan Hill.

If Oden goes down, I would start Jordan Hill and keep Kurt Thomas as my backup center. Hill would play 32-35 minutes a night. Kurt Thomas' minutes would increase to the high teens, say 18 minutes a game. Unfortunately, Hilton Armstrong would need to play the remainder.

The Knicks have Nate Robinson and potentially not a single other 20 minute worthy player on their roster.

I think Jordan Hill is capable of playing 20+ quality minutes a night.

I think Paul George has a shot at it too but that isn't uncertain. I actually like this roster for him ... similar to the way I liked D.Wright alongside D.Wade last season. Nice mix of protection (Wade) and offensive freedom.

----------------------------------------------

I am more worried about Kenyon's health than Oden's. I have ignored so far in this fantasy game ... but I have low expectations of him having a good season for the Nuggets following this injury.