If Yao Ming is healthy for even half the season ... there is no way that Utah doesn't finish with the first seed.
I think you underrate just how poor Utah's defensive backcourt is going to be, with Calderon in decline and Casspi playing out of position. I think some of the great PGs in this division are going to eat the Jazz alive. If Yao isn't healthy, that weakens Utah's front court depth substantially. Gasol + Lopez can't play 48 minutes, and when they're not in there, opposing teams would be running layup drills.
Yeah, I've seen you banging that whole "Casspi playing out of position" drum for a bit. Casspi playing the SG position was certainly not the weakest link on those units that Sacramento was trotting out there that put up rather lackluster numbers from a defensive standpoint.
You even mention in a few posts earlier about how Nocioni's defense was horrific at the SF position for Sacramento. Casspi was in there at SG for some of those units. The Nocioni units without Casspi in there are still atrocious. The weak link there was clearly Nocioni and that's before discussing guys like Kevin Martin and Beno Udrih who werent exactly defensive stallwarts themselves.
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Casspi playing the SG position was not the problem with those Sacramento teams. He's also going to be playing with some units in Utah that are pretty strong from a defensive standpoint even with Calderon out there on the floor.
In the top three lineups where Casspi was shooting guard, he wasn't playing beside Nocioni at SF, so that argument is a non-starter.
You're asking a player who has never played significant minutes at SG to be the starter there, between a horrendous defensive PG and a poor defensive SF (assuming you start Gallinari). In the limited time that Casspi did play SG, the Kings performed extremely poorly, and that wasn't the fault of Nocioni.
If Yao is healthy, the front line he creates with Gasol is a very good one, and will somewhat mitigate some of your back court's defensive issues. However, if Yao *isn't* in there (in Who's scenario, he misses 50% of the season), the Jazz are going to suffer tremendously.