The Eastern Conference will be littered with horrible teams this year

[nickagneta]

Had this discussion with my sons over dinner last night. My oldest  asked me who I thought would be in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference next year. So I started thinking.

1. Miami - wins Southeast
2. Boston - wins Atlantic
3. Orlando - 2nd Sotheast
4. Chicago - wins Central
5. Atlanta - 3rd Southeast
6. Milwaukee - 2nd Central

And then I froze up. I couldn't for the life of me think of a reason why any of the nine teams left in the league deserved to be even considered a playoff caliber team.

New York - I guess they could be a playoff team but I really have little faith in a team who's team philosophy is to refuse to play any defense whatsoever and added zero players known for their defense. Amare has never impressed me and I find him to be tremendously over rated and a product of a superstar PG. Felton is no where near a superstar PG and the rabble they picked up from Golden State can't spell defense, never mind play it.

New Jersey - still years from the playoffs

Detroit - simply awful with no clear cut PG to give the 10 or so players on that team to love to shoot and not pass the ball where they need it

Toronto - will be last year's New Jersey bad

Indiana - They sucked last year and added not a single player that could improve them

Philadelphia - a tremendous collection of underachieving and not ready for prime time players that possibly could back their way into the playoffs by not being nearly as horrendous as the rest of these bad teams

Charlotte - lost their PG and center from their playoff team that might have been one of the worst teams to make the playoffs ever.

Cleveland - same team minus Lebron, Shaq, and Big Z. 28-30 less wins later they will have trouble putting 10000 people in that arena.

Washington - team full of head cases and players with unlocked potential. 25 wins if they are lucky.


So I think New York, Philadelphia and Charlotte will be fighting for the final two spots but I have a hard time seeing any of those teams winning 35 games. Likely back in the day a team won only 15 games and made the playoffs because otherwise, this might have been the year for a record breaking bad record to make the playoffs.

[fairweatherfan]

Likely back in the day a team won only 15 games and made the playoffs because otherwise, this might have been the year for a record breaking bad record to make the playoffs.

I was curious about this so I Googled it - worst record by a playoff team is 16-54 (.229), Baltimore Bullets, 1952-53.  This translates to about a 19-63 record today.  Of course, there were only 4 teams in a conference and 2 made the playoffs, so that'll never be broken.  I think the record since 16 teams started making it was about 35 wins.

As for this year, don't sell Cleveland too short - Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison, JJ Hickson, and Varejao might be a good enough core to get the Cavs to the 7 or 8 seed in a very weak bunch.  I'm rooting hard for them to play Miami in the first round no matter what though.  Other than that I think Charlotte and New York have a decent shot, with Washington and Philly possibilities depending on how well Wall and Turner adjust to the league.

[the_Bird]

I'm going to disagree on Toronto.  They may not sniff .500 this year, but I'd be very surprised if they were anywhere near New Jersey territory this year.  I said in another thread, let me go on record as saying that I don't think they'll miss Bosh *that* much.  His loss hurts, no doubt...  but it's not nearly as crippling a blow as Cleveland losing LeBron.

I see a whole lotta .400 ballclubs on that list.  

Philly - let's see what Turner can do.  

Indiana fell back last year mostly because Granger regressed.  Thinking they're a team that could use both a few trades and a new coach; reading some stuff yesterday, sounds like they're starting to tune out O'bie.  Larry's pretty sensitive to this, he stepped down as coach after three years specifically because  of this - but he doesn't seem inclined to EVER want to make changes.

Washington; they can't be any worse, can they?  Wall looks like the real deal, they should be able to add a couple of wins just having him around.

Charlotte; not going to under-estimate Larry Brown, if *he* himself is motivated.   May not be a playoff team again, but shouldn't be horrible, either.  Should play enough D to steal a few wins.

Detroit; should have enough talent to win 35 games, but not enough talent in the right spots to do more than that.

[indeedproceed]

I agree with both the teams and order of your top 6.

Here are my thoughts on the rest of the East:

NY: Gallinari should continue to improve, and if last season is an indicator he should be a legit starting caliber 3 by the end of the season. Stoudamire will be the 3rd (possibly second depending on how well Bosh plays in Miami, and how much easier Amare finds the Eastern conference bigs) best big in the conference. Felton has proved that he can be a starting pg for a playoff team, and between Azubuike, Walker, and Chandler they ought to have some versatility at the two, and Azubuike is a talented defender.

To me, NY really comes down to the front court. If one of Anthony Randolph or Timofay Mozgov can prove that they ought to be starting (Randolph at the 4, Mozgov at the 5), so Turiaf can move to the bench, NY should surpass Milwaukee as the 6th seed.

NJ should be somewhere around 30ish wins, finishing out of the playoffs.

I expect Charlotte to tumble a bit this season. They may still take the 8th spot, but I don't know how when they've only gotten worse.

Wizards might sniff the playoffs but they're such an odd mix of non-compatible talent, I don't see how they make it in the top 8. 32-35 wins...somewhere in there.

Indiana, Philadelphia, and Detroit should all be slightly less than mediocre. Hypothetically speaking, Detroit might have a shot at the playoffs, but I doubt it..mucho.

Toronto is going to be terrible. Cleveland is going to be worse.

[Birdbrain]

Had this discussion with my sons over dinner last night. My oldest  asked me who I thought would be in the playoffs in the Eastern Conference next year. So I started thinking.

1. Miami - wins Southeast
2. Boston - wins Atlantic
3. Orlando - 2nd Sotheast
4. Chicago - wins Central
5. Atlanta - 3rd Southeast
6. Milwaukee - 2nd Central

And then I froze up. I couldn't for the life of me think of a reason why any of the nine teams left in the league deserved to be even considered a playoff caliber team.

New York - I guess they could be a playoff team but I really have little faith in a team who's team philosophy is to refuse to play any defense whatsoever and added zero players known for their defense. Amare has never impressed me and I find him to be tremendously over rated and a product of a superstar PG. Felton is no where near a superstar PG and the rabble they picked up from Golden State can't spell defense, never mind play it.

New Jersey - still years from the playoffs

Detroit - simply awful with no clear cut PG to give the 10 or so players on that team to love to shoot and not pass the ball where they need it

Toronto - will be last year's New Jersey bad

Indiana - They sucked last year and added not a single player that could improve them

Philadelphia - a tremendous collection of underachieving and not ready for prime time players that possibly could back their way into the playoffs by not being nearly as horrendous as the rest of these bad teams

Charlotte - lost their PG and center from their playoff team that might have been one of the worst teams to make the playoffs ever.

Cleveland - same team minus Lebron, Shaq, and Big Z. 28-30 less wins later they will have trouble putting 10000 people in that arena.

Washington - team full of head cases and players with unlocked potential. 25 wins if they are lucky.


So I think New York, Philadelphia and Charlotte will be fighting for the final two spots but I have a hard time seeing any of those teams winning 35 games. Likely back in the day a team won only 15 games and made the playoffs because otherwise, this might have been the year for a record breaking bad record to make the playoffs.

I think you underselling Charlotte also Cleveland will probably be 35 win team as well.  LJ while carrying that squad gets way too much credit for all those wins but, suprisingly no blame for the early playoff exits.

Washington is an intriguing team that I will concede might implode due to head cases but, will have a lot of raw talent.

Oh and Chicago is way overrated.  You took the horrible defenders on Utah and added them to Chicago and now they are going to be contender.  I'll believe it when I see it.

Orlando
Miami
Boston
Atlanta
Milwaukee

Charlotte
Chicago
Washington? (I'll be rooting for Cleveland)

[Evantime34]

I think Indiana lead by Granger won't be that bad, Lance Stevenson is going to end up being good and in general that team is pretty young. A year of development for Rush, Hibbert and Hansboro should help them.

I see Detroit as winning the other spot. Tayshaun will be healthy and really help them.

[bdm860]

Likely back in the day a team won only 15 games and made the playoffs because otherwise, this might have been the year for a record breaking bad record to make the playoffs.

I was curious about this so I Googled it - worst record by a playoff team is 16-54 (.229), Baltimore Bullets, 1952-53.  This translates to about a 19-63 record today.  Of course, there were only 4 teams in a conference and 2 made the playoffs, so that'll never be broken.  I think the record since 16 teams started making it was about 35 wins.

I had a hard time picturing this (and maybe I'm just reading it wrong), but for anybody else confused like me, there were 10 teams in the league (2 conferences with 5 teams each), and the top 4 teams in each conference made the playoffs.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_1953.html


And looking at basketball-reference, it also looks like since the league expanded the playoffs to 16 teams in '84, the '86 Bulls is the team with the fewest wins to make the playoffs with 30, followed by the Spurs in '88 with 31 wins (and looks like several teams snuck in with 35 wins).

[the_Bird]

I see New York as being the #7 seed.  Amare's not a HUGE improvement over David Lee, but he is an improvement.  They've also improved the PG spot, and acquired some talent on the wings.  Set them loose, and they should win 45 games.

It's that last spot...   there's always one or two teams that surprise.  There's usually also a team or two that significantly under-performs expectations; Atlanta, perhaps?

[indeedproceed]

There's usually also a team or two that significantly under-performs expectations; Atlanta, perhaps?

Oddly enough I was thinking that too. For a team that shows considerable spunk and spine over the last 2 years prior..this past post season they sure underwhelmed. They almost lost to a Bogut-less bucks team, and they simply rolled over and died against Cleveland.

[hpantazo]

There's usually also a team or two that significantly under-performs expectations; Atlanta, perhaps?

Oddly enough I was thinking that too. For a team that shows considerable spunk and spine over the last 2 years prior..this past post season they sure underwhelmed. They almost lost to a Bogut-less bucks team, and they simply rolled over and died against Cleveland.

you mean against the magic

[nickagneta]

Funny thing about this subject is that most everyone agrees on the top 6 and no one else is even close to be able to make a definitive argument that any other team is going to be good. We all are like, well this team could do this or might do that. But no one is truly convinced.

I all think that the consensus of us would probably agree that the team that makes the last spot is going to have a really bad record. And by that I mean 5 or 6 games under .500.

I could see three teams in the East winning 60+ games and 2 others winning 50+ games, one or 2 teams winning between 40-47 games and everyone else at 36 games won or less.

That's a whole bunch of really bad teams in one conference.

[the_Bird]

Cleveland, I see them as in that Detroit/Indiana space; about 32 wins, maybe 35 if they get lucky.  That's why I've been advocating for them to blow the whole [dang] thing up ASAP, use your attractive assets (like Anthony Parker and Varejao) to clear guys like Mo Williams off the books.  Suck really bad for two seasons, they start over with clean books.  They aren't going to win and they aren't going to sell tickets, so why not?

[indeedproceed]

There's usually also a team or two that significantly under-performs expectations; Atlanta, perhaps?

Oddly enough I was thinking that too. For a team that shows considerable spunk and spine over the last 2 years prior..this past post season they sure underwhelmed. They almost lost to a Bogut-less bucks team, and they simply rolled over and died against Cleveland.

you mean against the magic

Do I?

I do, you're right. Whatever, they rolled over.

[Moranis]

Seeding with approximate win total
1. Miami - 68
2. Orlando - 60
3. Chicago - 58
4. Boston - 55
5. Atlanta - 50
6. Milwaukee - 48
7. Charlotte - 43
8. Cleveland - 40
9. Philladelphia - 38
10. Detroit - 35
11. Indiana - 34
12. Toronto - 33
13. New York - 33
14. New Jersey - 28
15. Washington - 25

[the_Bird]

Remember, Atlanta got in the '08 playoffs with only 37 wins.  We made it in 2004 with only 36 wins.  It's not unprecedented for a sub-40 win team to make the playoffs.