Danny's strategy (general)

[BballTim]

Unless you're doing a complete salary dump, there isn't much of a strategy you can do, is there?

You can either draft for talent, or for need.

And you typically sign FA's for need, those who you think you can get for a good price.

Any trade you make, regardless of strategy (unless salary dump) is to better your team.

  You can draft players that you think can contribute immediately, or you can draft for long term potential. You can trade for experienced players or you can trade for youth and draft picks.

[snively]

People forget that we had a maxed out and completely untradeable Vin Baker on the books when Ainge took over.  Couple Vin with an openly hostile Antoine, who had just come off probably the worst all-star season ever (20 points on 20 shots per game, a rebounding rate just under 10%), and a hobbled Tony Battie (who couldn't even practice) and you can see why he was looking to call it quits on that core.

From there he looked to buy low on talent with our weak trade offerings (injured Raef, injured Wally, red flag Ricky, injured Googs, disgruntled Payton, disappointing Mihm, returning Toine), take cheap flyers (Mike James, Chucky Atkins, Jumaine Jones, Olowokandi) and stockpile draft picks. 


And his most maligned acquisition, Raef, while a big injury risk, wasn't all that bad at the time: still relatively young and a unique talent.  How many big men can place top 5 in the league in shot-blocking and hit 3s at 36-40%?  He would have been an improvement on Toine if he stayed healthy.

Even Blount looked like a decent signing at the time.  The guy was probably the best mid-range shooting big in the league after KG, played decent defense, ran the floor like a gazelle and had just busted his butt to become one of the few bright spots on that super depressing 2003-2004 team. 

[More Banners]

I'm skeptical that there ever was a master plan much beyond that the C's team he inherited just didn't have enough talent to be a legitimate contender.  So, he did was he could do - anyway that he could - to improve the overall talent level.  Sometimes, that was taking a chance on a nutjob like Ricky.  Sometimes, that was taking a flyer on a lotto-pick bust.  Sometimes, that was letting the team lose games and knowing that better draft position would result.

But, it's hard to see how there's any real master plan between the limited team he inherited, to the team that he had developed prior to the Ray Allen deal.  The team was younger, more athletic, and MAYBE had more latent talent.  

The only real constant I see over the years, though, is a willingness to gamble for talent, a willingness to ignore popular sentiment.  

  His general strategy was to acquire assets, draft some bigs that were HS players because that's the only way to get decent bigs where he was drafting, and develop those draft picks to either help win with Paul or trade them for experienced players.

Well, yeah, but there were some moves in between that showed what sort of assets he valued relative to others, i.e. #7 pick for slightly better contracts.

  Slightly better contracts is a pretty big understatement. Danny cleared about $14M off the books and acquired an asset that allowed him to trade for a max contract player in one move.

Well, I figured that Raef's contract was only one year longer than Ratliff's deal, so, yes, that $14 million was a lot of money, but a pick that high is a rather high price to pay for relief that's only 1 year away instead of 2.  

So that's the context of "slightly better" contracts--one year less vs. a player that could be a solid starter, #2-3 option even, for the next decade.  Without taking anything away from his ability to find solid players late like Rondo and perhaps Al Jefferson with all-star potential outside the lottery, he passed up on his first opportunity to draft at a level that came with expectations.  [after doing well by not getting sucked into revising what could've been instead of staying on topic and anaylsing how danny boy thinks)  We could've had both Rondo AND Brandon Roy!!!  Isn't that worth one more year of Raef's contract?!?  Okay, there weren't many head turners or clear superstars in the draft, but we already had a superstar in Pierce, and there surely was talent.  Not many stars, but more than a handful that are getting good deals this summer (and people are wishing we had).

[BballTim]

I'm skeptical that there ever was a master plan much beyond that the C's team he inherited just didn't have enough talent to be a legitimate contender.  So, he did was he could do - anyway that he could - to improve the overall talent level.  Sometimes, that was taking a chance on a nutjob like Ricky.  Sometimes, that was taking a flyer on a lotto-pick bust.  Sometimes, that was letting the team lose games and knowing that better draft position would result.

But, it's hard to see how there's any real master plan between the limited team he inherited, to the team that he had developed prior to the Ray Allen deal.  The team was younger, more athletic, and MAYBE had more latent talent.  

The only real constant I see over the years, though, is a willingness to gamble for talent, a willingness to ignore popular sentiment.  

  His general strategy was to acquire assets, draft some bigs that were HS players because that's the only way to get decent bigs where he was drafting, and develop those draft picks to either help win with Paul or trade them for experienced players.

Well, yeah, but there were some moves in between that showed what sort of assets he valued relative to others, i.e. #7 pick for slightly better contracts.

  Slightly better contracts is a pretty big understatement. Danny cleared about $14M off the books and acquired an asset that allowed him to trade for a max contract player in one move.

Well, I figured that Raef's contract was only one year longer than Ratliff's deal, so, yes, that $14 million was a lot of money, but a pick that high is a rather high price to pay for relief that's only 1 year away instead of 2.  

So that's the context of "slightly better" contracts--one year less vs. a player that could be a solid starter, #2-3 option even, for the next decade.  Without taking anything away from his ability to find solid players late like Rondo and perhaps Al Jefferson with all-star potential outside the lottery, he passed up on his first opportunity to draft at a level that came with expectations.  [after doing well by not getting sucked into revising what could've been instead of staying on topic and anaylsing how danny boy thinks)  We could've had both Rondo AND Brandon Roy!!!  Isn't that worth one more year of Raef's contract?!?  Okay, there weren't many head turners or clear superstars in the draft, but we already had a superstar in Pierce, and there surely was talent.  Not many stars, but more than a handful that are getting good deals this summer (and people are wishing we had).

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

[slamtheking]

I'm skeptical that there ever was a master plan much beyond that the C's team he inherited just didn't have enough talent to be a legitimate contender.  So, he did was he could do - anyway that he could - to improve the overall talent level.  Sometimes, that was taking a chance on a nutjob like Ricky.  Sometimes, that was taking a flyer on a lotto-pick bust.  Sometimes, that was letting the team lose games and knowing that better draft position would result.

But, it's hard to see how there's any real master plan between the limited team he inherited, to the team that he had developed prior to the Ray Allen deal.  The team was younger, more athletic, and MAYBE had more latent talent.  

The only real constant I see over the years, though, is a willingness to gamble for talent, a willingness to ignore popular sentiment.  

  His general strategy was to acquire assets, draft some bigs that were HS players because that's the only way to get decent bigs where he was drafting, and develop those draft picks to either help win with Paul or trade them for experienced players.

Well, yeah, but there were some moves in between that showed what sort of assets he valued relative to others, i.e. #7 pick for slightly better contracts.

  Slightly better contracts is a pretty big understatement. Danny cleared about $14M off the books and acquired an asset that allowed him to trade for a max contract player in one move.

Well, I figured that Raef's contract was only one year longer than Ratliff's deal, so, yes, that $14 million was a lot of money, but a pick that high is a rather high price to pay for relief that's only 1 year away instead of 2.  

So that's the context of "slightly better" contracts--one year less vs. a player that could be a solid starter, #2-3 option even, for the next decade.  Without taking anything away from his ability to find solid players late like Rondo and perhaps Al Jefferson with all-star potential outside the lottery, he passed up on his first opportunity to draft at a level that came with expectations.  [after doing well by not getting sucked into revising what could've been instead of staying on topic and anaylsing how danny boy thinks)  We could've had both Rondo AND Brandon Roy!!!  Isn't that worth one more year of Raef's contract?!?  Okay, there weren't many head turners or clear superstars in the draft, but we already had a superstar in Pierce, and there surely was talent.  Not many stars, but more than a handful that are getting good deals this summer (and people are wishing we had).

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

But to take that one step further concerning the Roy pick, if we kept it and had Roy, that following year we most likely would not have lost 18 in a row nor lost TA to that injury (hey, alternate universe stuff here).  we'd probably had the 4th or 5th worst record that year instead of the 2nd worst.  Big deal you say?  Of course it is.  as the team with the 4th or 5th worst record, we'd have ended up with either the 1st or 2nd pick in that draft based on the lottery results and had either Oden or Durant.

PP may have been disgruntled with the youth and wanted out at that point but think of the roster we'd have had going forward for the next 8 years (assuming PP wanted a trade):
Rondo, Roy, Durant, Al, Perk as your starters.  West, TA, Gomes, Powe on the bench and possibly BBD too (depending on if Danny used the lone 2nd rounder on him that year).  
OR
Rondo, Good TA, Roy, Al, Oden with West, Perk, Gomes, Powe on the bench and possibly BBD too.

Now throw in the pick from the following year and whoever Danny would have traded PP for and you've got potentially Jeff Green or Joakim Noah added to your bench from the draft and whatever solid vets or star player from the PP trade too.  Granted, we wouldn't have won in 2008 but we'd be looking better than OKC is looking now and they're a genuine threat in the West for the next decade.

[BballTim]

I'm skeptical that there ever was a master plan much beyond that the C's team he inherited just didn't have enough talent to be a legitimate contender.  So, he did was he could do - anyway that he could - to improve the overall talent level.  Sometimes, that was taking a chance on a nutjob like Ricky.  Sometimes, that was taking a flyer on a lotto-pick bust.  Sometimes, that was letting the team lose games and knowing that better draft position would result.

But, it's hard to see how there's any real master plan between the limited team he inherited, to the team that he had developed prior to the Ray Allen deal.  The team was younger, more athletic, and MAYBE had more latent talent.  

The only real constant I see over the years, though, is a willingness to gamble for talent, a willingness to ignore popular sentiment.  

  His general strategy was to acquire assets, draft some bigs that were HS players because that's the only way to get decent bigs where he was drafting, and develop those draft picks to either help win with Paul or trade them for experienced players.

Well, yeah, but there were some moves in between that showed what sort of assets he valued relative to others, i.e. #7 pick for slightly better contracts.

  Slightly better contracts is a pretty big understatement. Danny cleared about $14M off the books and acquired an asset that allowed him to trade for a max contract player in one move.

Well, I figured that Raef's contract was only one year longer than Ratliff's deal, so, yes, that $14 million was a lot of money, but a pick that high is a rather high price to pay for relief that's only 1 year away instead of 2.  

So that's the context of "slightly better" contracts--one year less vs. a player that could be a solid starter, #2-3 option even, for the next decade.  Without taking anything away from his ability to find solid players late like Rondo and perhaps Al Jefferson with all-star potential outside the lottery, he passed up on his first opportunity to draft at a level that came with expectations.  [after doing well by not getting sucked into revising what could've been instead of staying on topic and anaylsing how danny boy thinks)  We could've had both Rondo AND Brandon Roy!!!  Isn't that worth one more year of Raef's contract?!?  Okay, there weren't many head turners or clear superstars in the draft, but we already had a superstar in Pierce, and there surely was talent.  Not many stars, but more than a handful that are getting good deals this summer (and people are wishing we had).

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

But to take that one step further concerning the Roy pick, if we kept it and had Roy, that following year we most likely would not have lost 18 in a row nor lost TA to that injury (hey, alternate universe stuff here).  we'd probably had the 4th or 5th worst record that year instead of the 2nd worst.  Big deal you say?  Of course it is.  as the team with the 4th or 5th worst record, we'd have ended up with either the 1st or 2nd pick in that draft based on the lottery results and had either Oden or Durant.

PP may have been disgruntled with the youth and wanted out at that point but think of the roster we'd have had going forward for the next 8 years (assuming PP wanted a trade):
Rondo, Roy, Durant, Al, Perk as your starters.  West, TA, Gomes, Powe on the bench and possibly BBD too (depending on if Danny used the lone 2nd rounder on him that year).  
OR
Rondo, Good TA, Roy, Al, Oden with West, Perk, Gomes, Powe on the bench and possibly BBD too.

Now throw in the pick from the following year and whoever Danny would have traded PP for and you've got potentially Jeff Green or Joakim Noah added to your bench from the draft and whatever solid vets or star player from the PP trade too.  Granted, we wouldn't have won in 2008 but we'd be looking better than OKC is looking now and they're a genuine threat in the West for the next decade.

  You're really trying to thread the needle on this one. The difference between 5th and 10 was 2 wins. Where would that leave us?

[Celtics4ever]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

[More Banners]

I'm skeptical that there ever was a master plan much beyond that the C's team he inherited just didn't have enough talent to be a legitimate contender.  So, he did was he could do - anyway that he could - to improve the overall talent level.  Sometimes, that was taking a chance on a nutjob like Ricky.  Sometimes, that was taking a flyer on a lotto-pick bust.  Sometimes, that was letting the team lose games and knowing that better draft position would result.

But, it's hard to see how there's any real master plan between the limited team he inherited, to the team that he had developed prior to the Ray Allen deal.  The team was younger, more athletic, and MAYBE had more latent talent.  

The only real constant I see over the years, though, is a willingness to gamble for talent, a willingness to ignore popular sentiment.  

  His general strategy was to acquire assets, draft some bigs that were HS players because that's the only way to get decent bigs where he was drafting, and develop those draft picks to either help win with Paul or trade them for experienced players.

Well, yeah, but there were some moves in between that showed what sort of assets he valued relative to others, i.e. #7 pick for slightly better contracts.

  Slightly better contracts is a pretty big understatement. Danny cleared about $14M off the books and acquired an asset that allowed him to trade for a max contract player in one move.

Well, I figured that Raef's contract was only one year longer than Ratliff's deal, so, yes, that $14 million was a lot of money, but a pick that high is a rather high price to pay for relief that's only 1 year away instead of 2.  

So that's the context of "slightly better" contracts--one year less vs. a player that could be a solid starter, #2-3 option even, for the next decade.  Without taking anything away from his ability to find solid players late like Rondo and perhaps Al Jefferson with all-star potential outside the lottery, he passed up on his first opportunity to draft at a level that came with expectations.  [after doing well by not getting sucked into revising what could've been instead of staying on topic and anaylsing how danny boy thinks)  We could've had both Rondo AND Brandon Roy!!!  Isn't that worth one more year of Raef's contract?!?  Okay, there weren't many head turners or clear superstars in the draft, but we already had a superstar in Pierce, and there surely was talent.  Not many stars, but more than a handful that are getting good deals this summer (and people are wishing we had).

  You're still ignoring half the story. Ainge didn't just get the cap relief, he got the expiring contract that allowed him to get KG and brought us a title. I don't think I'd trade the last 3 years for Brandon Roy. And who's to say he wouldn't have taken Rondo with the pick?

I don't think so.  We got no immediate cap relief in that deal.  We got out of the cap mess one year earlier.  If we had kept Raef's contract instead of trading it w/#7 for Ratliff's contract (that nobody knew could become part of a KG deal), we would've undoubtedly been in the best position to land Gasol with Raef's by-then-expiring contract, and most likely wouldn't have had to give up as much value to get him. 

The important thing is that Danny valued that one year shorter contract more than a #7 draft pick.

[the_Bird]

That's the same deal we got Bassy in, right?  He's another example of Danny trying to strike gold in a young player that was a high draft pick but who had disappointed so far in his short career.  Nobody in the league seems to love young draft busts more than Danny.

EDIT: One "theme" of Danny seems to be that he's unafraid of brassy, abrasive point guards (like he was) and he's unafraid of taking a chance on young big men who've been disappointing early in their careers.  Think he's trying to find another Robert Parrish.

[Chris]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

[More Banners]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I think this is a really great observation.  Perhaps, coming in as a new GM with new owners, there was some eagerness to make a move fairly soon. 

This is one of the things that stood out: in the end, it takes expiring contracts and picks to get talent in a salary dump, and by taking on Raef, sure we had more pieces, but I believe that Raef's deal was longer than Antoine's?  Anybody know if that was true?  I think that, sometime that season, a better deal would've emerged.  He was still a pretty solid player at the time, though easing past his prime.

[Chris]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I think this is a really great observation.  Perhaps, coming in as a new GM with new owners, there was some eagerness to make a move fairly soon. 

This is one of the things that stood out: in the end, it takes expiring contracts and picks to get talent in a salary dump, and by taking on Raef, sure we had more pieces, but I believe that Raef's deal was longer than Antoine's?  Anybody know if that was true?  I think that, sometime that season, a better deal would've emerged.  He was still a pretty solid player at the time, though easing past his prime.

Yes, Antoine was entering into the last year in his deal (which also prompted the trade, since they did not want to extend him for the amount of money he wanted), and Raef had something like 4 years left.

[More Banners]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I think this is a really great observation.  Perhaps, coming in as a new GM with new owners, there was some eagerness to make a move fairly soon. 

This is one of the things that stood out: in the end, it takes expiring contracts and picks to get talent in a salary dump, and by taking on Raef, sure we had more pieces, but I believe that Raef's deal was longer than Antoine's?  Anybody know if that was true?  I think that, sometime that season, a better deal would've emerged.  He was still a pretty solid player at the time, though easing past his prime.

Yes, Antoine was entering into the last year in his deal (which also prompted the trade, since they did not want to extend him for the amount of money he wanted), and Raef had something like 4 years left.

Wow.  I didn't really remember that (didn't pay that much attention to salary/roster stuff at the time).  I always thought of Antoine as a Celtic, rather than as a contract.  In retrospect, it probably would've been just as well to let his contract expire rather than to make a long term committment on an injured player.

So...would it be accurate to say Danny was afraid of Toine leaving w/o any return in talent/picks/anything?  I imagine his value would've been higher at the trade deadline than it was in October when the trade happened.  Why couldn't Danny wait?

[Chris]

I don't think Toine could have led us to a title.  The person above who said he was Miami's 3rd best player is serious misrepresenting how miniscule a role he had in the HEAT's title run.

He didn't defend, had horrible shot selection and shooting percentage.  I will concede he was our best and the only reason to toon in for a few years but to me, that onl illuminates how bad we were.

I agree.  This team was going nowhere when they traded Toine.  We were on the downside of a mediocre arc, and had very few assets to move.  Trading Toine was the right decision.  The problem was, Danny made the wrong trade.  He miscalculated how damaging Raef's contract could be (I wonder if he really thought Raef was going to fully recover from his knee issues?), and it ended up setting them back.  But I was fully on board with trading Toine (who I loved) at the time, and I am fully on board with it now.  He just needed more patience with finding the right deal...kind of like he did by waiting for KG.

I think this is a really great observation.  Perhaps, coming in as a new GM with new owners, there was some eagerness to make a move fairly soon. 

This is one of the things that stood out: in the end, it takes expiring contracts and picks to get talent in a salary dump, and by taking on Raef, sure we had more pieces, but I believe that Raef's deal was longer than Antoine's?  Anybody know if that was true?  I think that, sometime that season, a better deal would've emerged.  He was still a pretty solid player at the time, though easing past his prime.

Yes, Antoine was entering into the last year in his deal (which also prompted the trade, since they did not want to extend him for the amount of money he wanted), and Raef had something like 4 years left.

Wow.  I didn't really remember that (didn't pay that much attention to salary/roster stuff at the time).  I always thought of Antoine as a Celtic, rather than as a contract.  In retrospect, it probably would've been just as well to let his contract expire rather than to make a long term committment on an injured player.

So...would it be accurate to say Danny was afraid of Toine leaving w/o any return in talent/picks/anything?  I imagine his value would've been higher at the trade deadline than it was in October when the trade happened.  Why couldn't Danny wait?

In my personal opinion (no inside info at all), Danny loved Jiri Welsch, and thought he was worth it (or, more accurately, Chris Wallace convinced him he was a keeper).  I also think Danny really thought Raef's knees would get better, and he would end up being a very productive player again.  So, he ignored the risks, and pulled the trigger, hoping he could jumpstart the reloading process.

[MBunge]

I think you always have to keep in mind that every GM has a strategy to almost every move they make.  Very few of them also get the luck you need to make those strategies work.

Look at the Lakers.  If Bynum is healthier 3 years ago, do they even bother to make the deal to acquire Gasol?  And how lucky were they that Memphis was willing to trade Gasol for a bag of magic beans?

The only real overall strategy I can seen in Ainge is that after not being lucky with moves his first few years on the job, he places a much greater value on flexibility and not locking himself into a particular roster and set of contracts.  That's why he let Posey go when most GMs would have resigned him and why he took a chance on losing Big Baby rather than sign him to a bigger, longer term deal.

Mike