Danny's strategy (general)

[More Banners]

I sauntered over to HoopsHype and checked out the list, by season, of Danny's moves since coming to Boston.  With 2008 in the books, it's pretty easy to think there was a master plan or something, that Danny could see KG or Ray in the future, and that he knew with some clarity how he was going to get where he was going.  Looking back, but starting at the beginning and going forward along with the moves, there have surely been some shaky moves, questionable trades, and problems that he created, which are lost to memory because he hung around long enough to solve them (and wasn't fired by some loose-cannon, impulsive owner).  Overall, though, it's pretty clear that Danny has some tendencies and preferances.  I think the big moves and pieces stand out in showing his tendencies and preferences more than all the late-1st rounders and role player moves.  Let's check it out:

First, he inherited a team that was a 45-50 win playoff team that featured two all-stars and played a style with low turnovers, tough defense, and lots of steals.  And he promptly blew it up.

The first huge move was trading Antione, who was a 20/8/5 guy on a playoff team.  In exhange, he got pieces.  Not talent, just pieces.  Small ones.  Jiri Welch small.  Small cap-friendly conract of Chris Mills.  Large, loooong, non-cap friendly contract of Paul's college buddy Raef LaFrenz.  And a late 1st rounder.  The team was obviously going to be worse, and it was.

Then traded Eric Williams and Battie for Ricky Davis and Mihm.  36 wins.

Tried to load up the team with talented veterans with PP, GP, and Antoine, and made a little run at respectability, 45 wins and a 7-game 1st round loss in.  Broke it up again, but perhaps stumbled upon a formula.

Traded Ricky Buckets for Wally Scissorback.

2006:  Traded first lottery pick for slightly better contracts (one less year) than the deal he picked up for Antione.  [Note:  Antione would've been off the books already.]

2007:  Various prospects, expensive contracts of washed-up veterans, picks, and role players traded for Ray and then KG.  Nothing short of a miracle, given the previous 4 years of, at best, lateral moves.

So this is what I think stands out:  Danny has never had cap space, but cap space doesn't win championships.  He does seem intent on limiting contracts right now to 2 years, presumably to avoid being in the position he put himself in after dealing Antione, in that there was no cap space, and injured or past-prime players were clogging up the roster.  It seems clear to me that in trying to accumulate pieces, he dealt Toine, but along with the picks came the bad contracts that limited options for four years.  I think Danny likes to have his stars (Pierce, Rondo) under a long term contract (he's now given Paul two of them), but everyone else on short deals.  I think he learned this during his first two years.

I also think it's interesting that he traded away two lottery picks.  Clearly, he's not planning for stars in the draft.  He did acquire quite a few picks, but late picks turned into role players, not saviours, and middle picks were boom-or-bust (e.g. Banks, GGreen, and Al Jefferson).  He has rarely traded away picks, so he likes them, but is quite willing to let someone else bet the farm on developing a top-10 pick.

It's also interesting that the team didn't spend in free agency much during his first few years (using the MLE).  Perhaps they could've kept 'Toine and PP, and added the piece they needed with the MLE?  Honestly, I'm not sure whether the rules were the same then as far as the MLE goes...but I think Obie would've welcomed that.

So his general strategy seems to be this:  Not much expectations out of the draft, never, never, never take on bad contracts, and try to lock in stars (but nobody else) long term.  I think the 'no bad contracts' rule means he isn't eager to have cap space, but to use expiring contracts as assets when the time comes to get other pieces.

What does this mean for right now? 

Will we be forever missing out on talent because Danny doesn't want to give a player one more year on a contract? 

Will he blow up a playoff team, put a 24-win team together, to get a high lottery pick only to package that pick in a trade?  One thing that is clear to me is that Danny took a 45-50 win team and turned it into a 24 win team.  There was no "rebuild while winning" going on, no trading future picks for pieces to add to the playoff core--he blew it all up.  Of course, he didn't build it.  Will he be as quick to blow up a roster that he has built himself?

We'll see...

[footey]

Good analysis, although I think I you are too rosy in your assessment of the team Danny inherited. Consensus was that it was a squad that could not compete for a championship, and Danny aggressively dismantled it.  I think Danny right now is in a precarious place: He wants to give the big 3 plus Rondo one last go at it, but at the same time does not want to sacrifice the cap room he is creating in 2012 to do so. He is thinking of the best interests of the present and the future of this team at the same time, which is not an easy thing to pull off. Don't know if he will.

[slamtheking]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring. 

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

[Roy Hobbs]

Not to quibble too much, but Danny has given / taken on his share of bad contracts, especially early in his tenure.  He signed Blount and Scal to deals that we too long and too lucrative, and he traded Antoine for Raef's horrific deal.

I think what happened is that Danny learned his lesson about how crippling bad deals can be.  He spent a significant amount of energy trying to deal Raef (ultimately having to deal a lottery pick which could have been Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay to shave a year off his deal), and he had to take on another bad contract in Wally in order to move Blount.

I think Danny's philosophy has changed over time.  At first, I think it was a matter of accumulating talent in any manner he could.  I think at one time he genuinely did want to build around Big Al and the rest of the young guys.  When Pierce started talking about a trade, I think Danny modified his plan from accumulating talent to build around, to cashing that talent in as trade chips.  Recently, Danny has been more about short-term results, while preserving flexibility in the future.  He tried gambling a bit in the summer of 2008, saw that didn't work, and now is only taking on established guys.  Once our older guys get ready to retire, I'm sure there will be yet another change in philosophy, most likely again to be centered around building around young guys.

[Chris]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring. 

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

I don't think it is even that strict a plan.  I think Danny has gained a real appreciation for roster flexibility over the years, and he knows that in 2 years, when KG comes off the books, that is the drop dead date, where he is going to have to rebuild the roster.  He knows that having too many contracts on the books, that would not be part of the core going forward, will make it significantly harder for him to rebuild on the fly.  

I don't think he has targets or anything like that, I just think he doesn't feel the need to clog up the books (particulatly with a new CBA) with mediocre role players on a team that is looking to rebuild.

[the_Bird]

Yeah, Danny knew that the Pierce/Antoine combo had gotten as far as it could get.  They probably could have squeezed a few more years of middling results (2nd round playoff exits), but that was about as good as they were going to get with that core.

Yeah, a lot of kind of lateral moves early on.  Not too many trades that turned really bad on us.  I hated the Ricky Buckets acquisition, but E-Will was pretty much done by that point.  

I think if anything, Danny shows a tendency to want to "buy low" on guys with some decent upside potential.  The cost of acquiring Ricky was pretty minimal.  Guys like POB and Sheldon Williams, low-risk signings of young lotto busts (one reason I expect Kwame in green this fall).  Making sure to get a guy like Jiri in the Antoine deal.  The (failed) pursuit of that other slow PG, Sarunas Jasikevicius (yes, I looked up the spelling on that...)  

This extends both to grabbing young, unproven guys with heavy "bust" potential as well as acquiring controversial guys.  He's not afraid of players (especially point guards) with personality; Gary Payton, Sam Cassell, Stephon Marbury, Nate Robinson...  there's a pattern there!

Danny's willing to take some risk for these guys, but usually with a fairly limited downside.  

Probably the single most consistent part of Danny's style is a willingness (enabled by management) to completely and utterly ignore public sentiment.  Exactly how many popular trades has Danny made?  The KG trade and...  uh, the KG trade.  He p---ed off half of Celtic nation when he traded away Antoine and the other half when he traded for him back.  

Danny has his fair share of misses over the years.  I don't implicitly trust him the way I trust Bill Belichick.  But, he's still better than most.

[slamtheking]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring. 

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

I don't think it is even that strict a plan.  I think Danny has gained a real appreciation for roster flexibility over the years, and he knows that in 2 years, when KG comes off the books, that is the drop dead date, where he is going to have to rebuild the roster.  He knows that having too many contracts on the books, that would not be part of the core going forward, will make it significantly harder for him to rebuild on the fly.  

I don't think he has targets or anything like that, I just think he doesn't feel the need to clog up the books (particulatly with a new CBA) with mediocre role players on a team that is looking to rebuild.

Oh I'm not saying he has a strict plan.  just saying the only plan he seems to have is to clear the decks of players and contracts by the end of 2012.  what he does with his roster and financial flexibility at that point is anyone's guess.

[jdpapa3]

And regarding the 2 years thing: anyone know how much longer Ainge's contract is for?

[Chris]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring. 

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

I don't think it is even that strict a plan.  I think Danny has gained a real appreciation for roster flexibility over the years, and he knows that in 2 years, when KG comes off the books, that is the drop dead date, where he is going to have to rebuild the roster.  He knows that having too many contracts on the books, that would not be part of the core going forward, will make it significantly harder for him to rebuild on the fly.  

I don't think he has targets or anything like that, I just think he doesn't feel the need to clog up the books (particulatly with a new CBA) with mediocre role players on a team that is looking to rebuild.

Oh I'm not saying he has a strict plan.  just saying the only plan he seems to have is to clear the decks of players and contracts by the end of 2012.  what he does with his roster and financial flexibility at that point is anyone's guess.

Right, but I don't think he will even stick to that.  If he has a chance to add a player on a contract going beyond 2012, and he sees him as a member of the core beyond that point, then I think he will have no problem signing them.  I just don't think he wants role players on the books then.

[Lucky17]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring.  

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Personally, I think Danny is clearing the decks for 2012 to step down as GM, and turn it over to someone else to fashion the team however he sees fit.

I imagine Doc will be gone by then too (perhaps a one-year extension beyond this year).

[More Banners]

Not to quibble too much, but Danny has given / taken on his share of bad contracts, especially early in his tenure.  He signed Blount and Scal to deals that we too long and too lucrative, and he traded Antoine for Raef's horrific deal.

I think what happened is that Danny learned his lesson about how crippling bad deals can be.  He spent a significant amount of energy trying to deal Raef (ultimately having to deal a lottery pick which could have been Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay to shave a year off his deal), and he had to take on another bad contract in Wally in order to move Blount.

I think Danny's philosophy has changed over time.  At first, I think it was a matter of accumulating talent in any manner he could.  I think at one time he genuinely did want to build around Big Al and the rest of the young guys.  When Pierce started talking about a trade, I think Danny modified his plan from accumulating talent to build around, to cashing that talent in as trade chips.  Recently, Danny has been more about short-term results, while preserving flexibility in the future.  He tried gambling a bit in the summer of 2008, saw that didn't work, and now is only taking on established guys.  Once our older guys get ready to retire, I'm sure there will be yet another change in philosophy, most likely again to be centered around building around young guys.

Right, I think he took on bad contracts (Raef) and made some (Blount-but oddly that was market value for him).  Scal was overpaid as a FA, and I think Danny learned that Free Agency is all about overpaying in most cases.  

Perhaps the biggest lesson Danny learned is that it takes a while to determine value, after the contract is signed, and consequently has a preference for acqisition via trade vs. free agency.  The draft is a gamble that takes time to figure out what the value is, so trading the pick locks in its value immediately (instead of taking the player and waiting 3 years to see what you've got), while returning an established player.

So I think Danny will continue to try the trade route aggressively.  I don't think he'll tank for a draft pick that he keeps.  Of course it always takes two, so this route is as uncertain as any.  I think, by keeping short-term contracts for role players and complementary pieces along with draft picks in his pocket, he'll always be in the conversation about potential trades.  Hopefully, somehow, he (and we) will get lucky like it's 2007 all over again.  Soon.

[More Banners]

Good analysis, although I think I you are too rosy in your assessment of the team Danny inherited. Consensus was that it was a squad that could not compete for a championship, and Danny aggressively dismantled it.  I think Danny right now is in a precarious place: He wants to give the big 3 plus Rondo one last go at it, but at the same time does not want to sacrifice the cap room he is creating in 2012 to do so. He is thinking of the best interests of the present and the future of this team at the same time, which is not an easy thing to pull off. Don't know if he will.

Perhaps.  Really, as true as the observation is/was that it was a Paul/Antoine team, the low turnover and high steals rate really showed a "team", and I give some credit to that.  PP and Toine were playing 40 minutes and the didn't win the title, so clearly they needed something.  But if they would've been able to add to the ECF team the way we have lately, by using the MLE on star-quality players transitioning to the 6th man role late in their careers (thinking of Sheed and JO), then I think that changes (of course, keeping JJ would have changed quite a bit, too).  Also, it's not like the PP/Antoine core was aging past their prime, otherwise PP wouldn't become finals MVP 5 years later and Toine wouldn't have been an important part of Miami's title run (he was a valuable contributing role player, at least).  PP and Toine proved separately that they are/were each part of a contender.

The lateral moves made did more than shift the deck chairs around.  Trading Eric and Battie for Davis and Mihm (who was hurt) was more than a change of style; it tore apart the low turnover/solid defensive team that counted on those role players.  It was a high risk move, to be sure, simply to change the style of play? 

Perhaps Danny learned a lesson from the Ricky Davis trade about the value of becoming "more athletic"?

I suppose the main point (if there is one) isn't that Danny took apart a playoff team and built a 24 win team.  It may or may not have been necessary for either to happen, but I was pretty blown away looking back at the moves.  Some worked out, some didn't, but some didn't even make much sense.  Looking back, I can see why Obie was p---ed about the Ricky Davis trade, for sure.

But you are 100% correct that Danny is in a precarious place right now.  If he was coming on board right now, I'm not sure he wouldn't blow it up like he did in 2003.  Since he built this roster, and remembers how much it sucked to have a roster in transition, he's not as eager to blow it up (it appears) as he was when he first came, though perhaps there are some things in common.

[slamtheking]

I think his only real strategy is to clear the decks in 2 years for serious restructuring. 

I'm not sure what he's planning to do at that point.  If he's going for FA's, the pickings are slim with the cap room he'll presumably have.  He's hasn't accumulated draft picks like he had in prior years when he needed talent.  He hasn't got a young talent base on which to build or trade (he only has Rondo, an injured Perk, BBD and Avery who hasn't played yet).

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

I don't think it is even that strict a plan.  I think Danny has gained a real appreciation for roster flexibility over the years, and he knows that in 2 years, when KG comes off the books, that is the drop dead date, where he is going to have to rebuild the roster.  He knows that having too many contracts on the books, that would not be part of the core going forward, will make it significantly harder for him to rebuild on the fly.  

I don't think he has targets or anything like that, I just think he doesn't feel the need to clog up the books (particulatly with a new CBA) with mediocre role players on a team that is looking to rebuild.

Oh I'm not saying he has a strict plan.  just saying the only plan he seems to have is to clear the decks of players and contracts by the end of 2012.  what he does with his roster and financial flexibility at that point is anyone's guess.

Right, but I don't think he will even stick to that.  If he has a chance to add a player on a contract going beyond 2012, and he sees him as a member of the core beyond that point, then I think he will have no problem signing them.  I just don't think he wants role players on the books then.

totally agree.

[Cman]

Not sure where he's headed in 2 years.  Could be as a 3rd team to facilitate trades where he picks up draft picks and/or players people need to dump for salary purposes.  We'll just have to wait and see.

My guess is that he doesn't know what he will do with the expiring contracts/ cap space in 2 years, but he does know that having the flexibility will be nice. 

[More Banners]

Observation:  Gary Payton and Antoine Walker were both key contributors to the 2006 Heat title team, and both were on our roster in 2005.  If they had stayed with us, we would've likely been a playoff team again, and wouldn't have had the lottery pick (#7, traded).

Perhaps this was a key moment as well (the first being the first Antoine trade).  Both were available and would've come back, but would've ensured a 45 win season, and another 1st or 2nd round exit (by that point, the solid, veteran team defense of 2002 was traded away for youth). 

Danny was all-in to create a loser at that point, and 33 and 24 win seasons followed in 06 and 07.  I think this was a time when he shifted his strategy; he wasn't really trying to bring in talent at that point, and recognized there was no way to make the team any good.  This is likely what he will do anything to avoid ever doing again.