I sauntered over to HoopsHype and checked out the list, by season, of Danny's moves since coming to Boston. With 2008 in the books, it's pretty easy to think there was a master plan or something, that Danny could see KG or Ray in the future, and that he knew with some clarity how he was going to get where he was going. Looking back, but starting at the beginning and going forward along with the moves, there have surely been some shaky moves, questionable trades, and problems that he created, which are lost to memory because he hung around long enough to solve them (and wasn't fired by some loose-cannon, impulsive owner). Overall, though, it's pretty clear that Danny has some tendencies and preferances. I think the big moves and pieces stand out in showing his tendencies and preferences more than all the late-1st rounders and role player moves. Let's check it out:
First, he inherited a team that was a 45-50 win playoff team that featured two all-stars and played a style with low turnovers, tough defense, and lots of steals. And he promptly blew it up.
The first huge move was trading Antione, who was a 20/8/5 guy on a playoff team. In exhange, he got pieces. Not talent, just pieces. Small ones. Jiri Welch small. Small cap-friendly conract of Chris Mills. Large, loooong, non-cap friendly contract of Paul's college buddy Raef LaFrenz. And a late 1st rounder. The team was obviously going to be worse, and it was.
Then traded Eric Williams and Battie for Ricky Davis and Mihm. 36 wins.
Tried to load up the team with talented veterans with PP, GP, and Antoine, and made a little run at respectability, 45 wins and a 7-game 1st round loss in. Broke it up again, but perhaps stumbled upon a formula.
Traded Ricky Buckets for Wally Scissorback.
2006: Traded first lottery pick for slightly better contracts (one less year) than the deal he picked up for Antione. [Note: Antione would've been off the books already.]
2007: Various prospects, expensive contracts of washed-up veterans, picks, and role players traded for Ray and then KG. Nothing short of a miracle, given the previous 4 years of, at best, lateral moves.
So this is what I think stands out: Danny has never had cap space, but cap space doesn't win championships. He does seem intent on limiting contracts right now to 2 years, presumably to avoid being in the position he put himself in after dealing Antione, in that there was no cap space, and injured or past-prime players were clogging up the roster. It seems clear to me that in trying to accumulate pieces, he dealt Toine, but along with the picks came the bad contracts that limited options for four years. I think Danny likes to have his stars (Pierce, Rondo) under a long term contract (he's now given Paul two of them), but everyone else on short deals. I think he learned this during his first two years.
I also think it's interesting that he traded away two lottery picks. Clearly, he's not planning for stars in the draft. He did acquire quite a few picks, but late picks turned into role players, not saviours, and middle picks were boom-or-bust (e.g. Banks, GGreen, and Al Jefferson). He has rarely traded away picks, so he likes them, but is quite willing to let someone else bet the farm on developing a top-10 pick.
It's also interesting that the team didn't spend in free agency much during his first few years (using the MLE). Perhaps they could've kept 'Toine and PP, and added the piece they needed with the MLE? Honestly, I'm not sure whether the rules were the same then as far as the MLE goes...but I think Obie would've welcomed that.
So his general strategy seems to be this: Not much expectations out of the draft, never, never, never take on bad contracts, and try to lock in stars (but nobody else) long term. I think the 'no bad contracts' rule means he isn't eager to have cap space, but to use expiring contracts as assets when the time comes to get other pieces.
What does this mean for right now?
Will we be forever missing out on talent because Danny doesn't want to give a player one more year on a contract?
Will he blow up a playoff team, put a 24-win team together, to get a high lottery pick only to package that pick in a trade? One thing that is clear to me is that Danny took a 45-50 win team and turned it into a 24 win team. There was no "rebuild while winning" going on, no trading future picks for pieces to add to the playoff core--he blew it all up. Of course, he didn't build it. Will he be as quick to blow up a roster that he has built himself?
We'll see...
