Another look at Miami's depth

[Roy Hobbs]

I hadn't heard that Arroyo, Howard, and Magliore were signed - have they officially reached agreement?

As mentioned, they're close to signing.  At least, according to ESPN:

On Friday, the Heat completed contracts with returning Miami veteran Joel Anthony and rookie draft pick Dexter Pittman. And Miami's next move is expected to be the re-signing of another 7-footer, Jamaal Magloire. . . .

Ilgauskas is the ninth player to sign with Miami for the coming season. After Magloire, the Heat are expected to add Juwan Howard and Carlos Arroyo in the coming days, and it seems possible that free agent James Jones -- who was with Miami last season -- could also return. Free agent point guards Keyon Dooling and Chris Quinn, both former Miami players, are targets as well.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5388692

[slamtheking]

Miami is close to adding Juwan Howard, Jamal Magloire, and Carlos Arroyo.  That brings their roster to:

C: J. Anthony / Big Z / Magloire / D. Pittman (r)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / J. Howard / J. Varnado (r)
SF: Lebron / M. Miller / Da'Sean Butler (r)
SG: D. Wade
PG: Chalmers / Arroyo

I think Varnado and Butler are still unsigned, and I'm not sure if Miami expects to bring them in.  Assuming they do, that will place the Heat's roster at 14 players, and thus nearly complete.

What do you think?  Is this team still perceived to be paper thin?  Guys like Howard, Magloire, and Arroyo don't scare me, but all are okay depth.  The one weakness is at backup wing; Miller may be forced to the bench by default, as nobody else on the team can really defend the 2/3.

Currently, the Miami bench overall is a weakness, but is it a big enough one to prevent them from a title? 

that is a very scary team with that depth.  they have enough big bodies to eat minutes at the center position and Chalmer/Arroyo can eat some minutes at PG. 

Any close games, those few they'll probably actually have, will most likely see a closing unit of Wade, Miller, Bron, Haslem and Bosh.  How do you defend that line-up?  No one you can really leave to double-team.  2 of the best penetrators in the game.  The other 3 are good spot-up shooters and in the event you cheat of Haslem as the least-offensively talented of the bunch, he's a terrific offensive rebounder.

Defensively, they'll do just fine too.  Wade and Bron rarely ever get called for fouls.  Bosh gets his share of star treatment as well.  Haslem and Miller are both smart defensively and don't draw many stupid fouls.

Honestly, everyone in the league is hanging their hats on the hopes that chemistry does this team in--just like they did in 2008 with the Celtics.  Bron is a prima-donna and Bosh may get tired of taking the backseat to Wade/Bron in a few years but this Miami team will be a force to reckon with this year.  LA and Boston's only hopes for a title is to beat on Miami's frontcourt mercilessly but KG, JO and Perk don't do a lot of post play anymore (or in Perk's case, effectively).

[CelticsWhat35]

They're resigning James Jones as well.  If I read correctly, he turned down the full MLE from the Spurs to sign for the vet min.  I'm not sure what I find more surprising.  That a team would be willing to give him the full MLE, or that he would turn it down.

[GreenFaith1819]

Well, all I know is that while MIA is putting together a formidable team - when the Dust Settles in June 2011, The Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers will be dancing once again.

Boston proved to me last year, against all odds, that we could get the job done. This won't change in a year.

Except this time, I look for Boston to close the deal.

[Snakehead]

I don't really think this team isn't deep.  A lot of the bench guys are mostly role players but with 3 players as good as Wade, LeBron, and Bosh you can have a great starting five and you can stagger their PT so there can always be one or two of the three in the game to carry the load.  Miller is a great shooter who will knock down the open shots, the bigs will be good enough defending and hitting the glass.  Miami's three stars are all pretty good to great defenders and rebounders as well.  They all pass well.  There is a lot to like:

Their small ball lineup will not always be used, but this is their best lineup IMO:

Point Forward - LeBron
SG - Wade
SF - Miller
PF - Haslem
C - Bosh

That's a great transition team on both offense and defense and the rebounding ability of the three stars can cover up for the lack of size pretty well.

[nickagneta]

This team is still a three player trick horse, IMHO. I think their centers and point guards are near on being entirely useless in a playoff against a team with a good inside game or a team with a superstar PG. And the depth is either extremely old or extremely young.

Big Z - 35 years old
Juwan Howard - 37 years old
Jamal Magliore - 32 years old but plays much older
Jarvis Varnado - 22 years old
Dexter Pittman - 22 years old
Da'Sean Butler - 22 years old
Mario Chalmers - 24 years old

Yes, yes, I know. The same thing was said about the Celtics in 2007 but the Celtics had three superstars who's games complimented each other. And while Bosh's game compliment's the games of Lebron and Wade, Lebron and Wade's games are not complimentary. If anything their games are of such a self-centric nature that they could cause problems long term for each other.

Add that to the fact that the Celtics depth feature a starting center, a starting PG, a bench SF/PF and a bench SG who had a combined 16 years of NBA experience and who were all above average defenders. Add in Scot Pollard and Eddie House and rookie Glen Davis(who was a big time college player and played at a big time program) and Leon Powe and the C's had a much better and complimentary and defensive minded group to start the season than this Miami team does.

I think they win a lot of regular season games. 60 or more. But I see them having trouble against the more complete teams that are solid to spectacular at the areas they are weak in. Teams like Orlando, the Lakers, Boston, Denver, San Antonio and the like. My prediction is they do not make the ECF's this year.

[Greenbean]

I really dont see that team defending. Too much weakness at the Center position. Chalmers could surprise.

Two good to great defenders in LeBron and Wade.

The rest are average or below.

Dont even begin to comapre this team to the 07 08 Celtics until they surround those guys with shooters and defenders.

[Celtics4ever]

What Depth?  But they have vastly over-ated starters too.  They are the classic looks good on paper team.  We know they have the paper tiger in LeBron.

[Snakehead]

What Depth?  But they have vastly over-ated starters too.  They are the classic looks good on paper team.  We know they have the paper tiger in LeBron.

A two time MVP paper tiger? Who led maybe the worst team ever to the Finals? (aside from himself)

People can criticize LeBron for a number of things, one of those being his weakness as a closer at times (in comparison to Wade or Kobe), but let's not pertend the guy cannot play.  That's just silly.

[slamtheking]

This team is still a three player trick horse, IMHO. I think their centers and point guards are near on being entirely useless in a playoff against a team with a good inside game or a team with a superstar PG. And the depth is either extremely old or extremely young.

Big Z - 35 years old
Juwan Howard - 37 years old
Jamal Magliore - 32 years old but plays much older
Jarvis Varnado - 22 years old
Dexter Pittman - 22 years old
Da'Sean Butler - 22 years old
Mario Chalmers - 24 years old

Yes, yes, I know. The same thing was said about the Celtics in 2007 but the Celtics had three superstars who's games complimented each other. And while Bosh's game compliment's the games of Lebron and Wade, Lebron and Wade's games are not complimentary. If anything their games are of such a self-centric nature that they could cause problems long term for each other.

Add that to the fact that the Celtics depth feature a starting center, a starting PG, a bench SF/PF and a bench SG who had a combined 16 years of NBA experience and who were all above average defenders. Add in Scot Pollard and Eddie House and rookie Glen Davis(who was a big time college player and played at a big time program) and Leon Powe and the C's had a much better and complimentary and defensive minded group to start the season than this Miami team does.

I think they win a lot of regular season games. 60 or more. But I see them having trouble against the more complete teams that are solid to spectacular at the areas they are weak in. Teams like Orlando, the Lakers, Boston, Denver, San Antonio and the like. My prediction is they do not make the ECF's this year.

I see your point that they have weak spots at C and PG.  no disagreement there.  however, they can cover those areas at the end of games when they really need to by putting their 5 best players on the floor. 

Wade can certainly cover PGs.  Haslem can do a good job covering the majority of centers in the league today. 

Consider this, by the time the end of the game comes, Wade, Bron and Bosh have most likely put the opposing team's wings and PF in foul trouble--wings especially.  coverage on them will either be a parade to the foul line or toreador defense.  for that matter the opposing bigs could very well be in trouble as well for covering up the constant drives to the bucket by Wade and Bron.  In any case, the opposition will be in heavy foul trouble the majority of the time.  It'll be a game of attrition for the opposition so they need to be very deep.  None of the other primary challengers have that depth right now.

On D, they'll do fine.  Wade and Bron are never whistled.  Bosh doesn't pick up many either.  Miller and Haslem are solid defenders as well.  They'll do better than expected.  The C's, Magic and Lakers don't have the depth needed to beat these guys yet.  Lakers have a good frontline but Kobe and Artest will get pummelled by Wade/Bron/Miller.  Rondo is a better PG than Miami will have but he's still a bad shooter.  Orlando is week at the wings even with their Jameer/Howard combo. 

If they don't get ot the ECF, it'll be a major surprise.

[Roy Hobbs]

With the signing of James Jones, they can now start Mike Miller, if they choose:

C: J. Anthony / Big Z / Magloire / D. Pittman (r)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / J. Howard / J. Varnado (r)
SF: Lebron / J. Jones / Da'Sean Butler (r)
SG: M. Miller / (Jones)
PG: D. Wade / Chalmers / Arroyo

A bench of Big Z, Haslem, Jones, and Chalmers is pretty competent.  Lebron / Wade won't have much of a problem initiating the offense, and Wade can defend the vast majority of point guards.

Kudos to Pat Riley for getting so many players to buy into his vision.  If you'd shown me the above roster before free agency began, I would have told you it was an absolute pipe dream that couldn't be accomplished in reality.

The season isn't over yet, but I fully expect the Heat to win 65+ games next year.  Basically, Riley took a 47 win team, and traded J. O'Neal, Daequan Cook, Q. Rich, Michael Beasley and Dorrell Wright for Lebron, Bosh, Big Z and Mike Miller. 

[MBunge]

Miami's overall talent level is better than I thought it would be, due to Haslem, Miller and Big Z giving up millions of dollars they could have gotten from other teams.

For a title contender, however, their bigs are putrid and their PGs aren't much better.  The problem for Miami is that the best 5 they can put on the floor are Wade, Miller, LeBron, Bosh and Haslem with Haslem probably playing center.  That team poses matchup problems, but will also have trouble matching up against the top teams in the league.  Just in the East, who on that team is going to keep Rondo or Derrick Rose out of the middle or Dwight Howard off the boards?

The Heat are going to be good, but they'll also have weaknesses that can be exploited.

Mike

[slamtheking]

Just in the East, who on that team is going to keep Rondo or Derrick Rose out of the middle or Dwight Howard off the boards?

Simple, Wade backs off Rondo and Rose to make them shoot jumpers (more effective on Rondo than Rose but Rose doesn't have the big 3 to pass to) and play Orlando straight man with no help on Howard like the C's did.  Haslem can body Howard and make him try to score from 8-10 feet out.  Heat now have the defenders to stay with their men on the perimeter or can cover the open ground if they cheat a bit to help on Howard.

[MBunge]

With the signing of James Jones, they can now start Mike Miller, if they choose:

C: J. Anthony / Big Z / Magloire / D. Pittman (r)
PF: Bosh / Haslem / J. Howard / J. Varnado (r)
SF: Lebron / J. Jones / Da'Sean Butler (r)
SG: M. Miller / (Jones)
PG: D. Wade / Chalmers / Arroyo

A bench of Big Z, Haslem, Jones, and Chalmers is pretty competent.  Lebron / Wade won't have much of a problem initiating the offense, and Wade can defend the vast majority of point guards.

Uh, Joel Anthony averaged 2.7 points and 3.1 boards a game during the regular season, 2.6 points and 1.8 boards in the playoffs and he'll be 28 years old when next season starts, so he ain't getting any better. No team that starts Joel Anthony at center will win 65 games.  James Jones averaged 4.1 points and 1.3 boards in the regular season.  In the playoffs he averaged 2 points, 0 boards, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks and 1 turnover a game.

Secondly, in Miami last year, Chalmers and Arroyo played a combined 49 minutes a game.  Which means Wade played a total of 0 minutes at point guard.

Mike

[Snakehead]

Just in the East, who on that team is going to keep Rondo or Derrick Rose out of the middle or Dwight Howard off the boards?

Simple, Wade backs off Rondo and Rose to make them shoot jumpers (more effective on Rondo than Rose but Rose doesn't have the big 3 to pass to) and play Orlando straight man with no help on Howard like the C's did.  Haslem can body Howard and make him try to score from 8-10 feet out.  Heat now have the defenders to stay with their men on the perimeter or can cover the open ground if they cheat a bit to help on Howard.

Wade can defend PGs as well as anyone.  I don't know how that could be seen as a matchup problem for them.

For Dwight, they have big enough bodies to throw at him and slow him down.  Wade, LeBron, and Bosh are all good rebounders that can snatch away offensive board opportunities.  And Howards main weakness in his post game is his inability to deal with cheating defenders who try to cut off his moves and poke the ball free.  Wade and LeBron are perfect for that.  They can also block his shots while providing help.  They also have enough bigs to soak up plenty of fouls on Dwight and send him to the line.

Maybe they don't have the perfect size to deal with Howard, but they can play him well enough and allow him his points while daring the rest of the Magic to beat them.  I think that'll be enough.  I don't see the Magic's cast of weak jumpshooters posing that much of a problem for them.