Various ways the Heat could definitely not win

[Snakehead]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

Exactly.  The Heat will end up with just as good of a bench as us, if not better I'd say.  Maybe we have a higher quality talent (like O'Neal) but they will have more talent overall.

They can stagger their stars PT so they can run the team when the others rest on the bench as well.  LeBron and Wade can fill that role nicely.

On top of the guys you mentioned, other quality guys that I've read have interest and could go to Miami: Stackhouse, Maglore, Eddie House, Jason Williams... sounds like a good bench to me.  They wont need these guys to do too much, just fill their roles.

Pg - LBJ
SG - Wade
SF - Miller
PF - Bosh
C - (not sure what they'll go with here, but have options)

Then your bench could be:

Pg - Chalmers, Williams
SG/SF - Stack, House
PF - Haslem, Howard
C - Joel Anthony, Big Z, Maglore

Obviously plus or minus what they end up actually running plus who they go with at C, but that is not a weak bench by any stretch.

[Jon]

Injuries can't be stated enough.  All three have relatively good track records, but you could've said the same thing about guys like Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, and Tracy McGrady early in their careers.  You never know what could happen.  

And I won't feel badly about it if any of them get career ending injuries.  The way I see it, the Celtics have been shafted out of 5+ titles between Russell getting hurt in the playoffs in the '60s, Bird and McHale getting hurt, Bias and Reggie dying, and KG and Perk going down.  

Had we stayed healthy, we might be talking about approaching the Yankees for total championships.  

[Moranis]

Wade won 47 games with the Heat last year and they bring back Chalmers and Haslem.  Lebron has won over 60 each of the last two years without a legit #2.  The Raptors weren't very good, but Bosh is now the third best player on his team.  There isn't a team in the world that wouldn't want Bosh as its third best player.  

Z, Bosh, Lebron, Wade, Chalmers with Haslem the first big off the bench.  They still have Joel Anthony as the 4th big.  They need to add Mike Miller, but if they do what else do they need?  That is a quality 8 man rotation come playoff time.  During the season you rest your three studs a lot and get the young guys like Hasbrouck, Butler, Pittman, and Varnado some burn and see which ones can be the 9th or 10th man come playoff time.  Plus, they still might add some additional veterans at the vet minimum.  

Next year truly is the year to beat the Heat.  I think it will take some time for the chemistry to come together and for Lebron and Wade to figure out how to play together and they are limited without the MLE to really add the key role players.  After this year, I can't see a healthy Heat team losing unless some other team creates a super team (can you imagine if the Lakers were to trade Bynum for Chris Paul or something like that).

[MBunge]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

If we resign Nate (and no one's said it's not happening), our backup PG will be better than any PG on the Heat's roster.  Baby is better than Howard and better than Joel freakin' Antony.  Heck if Baby can play alongside a traditional center like JO or Perk, he might even be more productive than Z.  And even if Ainge can't swing a deal for someone like Josh Howard, at the very least he'll bring in some vet min guys who'll be as good as Howard.

Mike

[Moranis]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

If we resign Nate (and no one's said it's not happening), our backup PG will be better than any PG on the Heat's roster.  Baby is better than Howard and better than Joel freakin' Antony.  Heck if Baby can play alongside a traditional center like JO or Perk, he might even be more productive than Z.  And even if Ainge can't swing a deal for someone like Josh Howard, at the very least he'll bring in some vet min guys who'll be as good as Howard.

Mike

true, but the Heat will have the two best players in the series and it isn't close and you could easily argue that Bosh will be the third best player in the series.

Benches only really matter when the starting lineups are close.  I'm not sure our starting lineup is going to be close enough for our superior bencth to matter (if you told me right now that Perk, KG, Ray, PP, and Rondo were all 100% healthy entering the series, then I think we will be close enough, I just don't see that happening).

[MBunge]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

If we resign Nate (and no one's said it's not happening), our backup PG will be better than any PG on the Heat's roster.  Baby is better than Howard and better than Joel freakin' Antony.  Heck if Baby can play alongside a traditional center like JO or Perk, he might even be more productive than Z.  And even if Ainge can't swing a deal for someone like Josh Howard, at the very least he'll bring in some vet min guys who'll be as good as Howard.

Mike

true, but the Heat will have the two best players in the series and it isn't close and you could easily argue that Bosh will be the third best player in the series.

Benches only really matter when the starting lineups are close.  I'm not sure our starting lineup is going to be close enough for our superior bencth to matter (if you told me right now that Perk, KG, Ray, PP, and Rondo were all 100% healthy entering the series, then I think we will be close enough, I just don't see that happening).

Until Bosh proves he can do more than put up stats on mediocre teams, I'm giving Paul, Ray and KG the edge over him.  Of course, the gap between our Big 3 and Miami's Big 2 is fairly large.

Mike

[BballTim]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

If we resign Nate (and no one's said it's not happening), our backup PG will be better than any PG on the Heat's roster.  Baby is better than Howard and better than Joel freakin' Antony.  Heck if Baby can play alongside a traditional center like JO or Perk, he might even be more productive than Z.  And even if Ainge can't swing a deal for someone like Josh Howard, at the very least he'll bring in some vet min guys who'll be as good as Howard.

Mike

true, but the Heat will have the two best players in the series and it isn't close and you could easily argue that Bosh will be the third best player in the series.

Benches only really matter when the starting lineups are close.  I'm not sure our starting lineup is going to be close enough for our superior bencth to matter (if you told me right now that Perk, KG, Ray, PP, and Rondo were all 100% healthy entering the series, then I think we will be close enough, I just don't see that happening).

  You still have to account for how vulnerable the players beyond their trio to being exploited, and how well Wade and James mesh. Both of those two had the ball in their hands on nearly every possession for their teams, and either shot or passed the ball. If Wade's handling the ball and James doesn't, will James still affect the game like a top 3 player? If LeBron handles the ball on offense, will Wade still impact the game like a top 5 player? They're probably better individual players than PP/RA/KG were in '08, but it's hard to see them complementing each other as well. I'm also not sold on them as a great defensive team. Can they contain Dwight Howard? Can they contain Rondo and KG?

[Assassin70]

Miami are the team to beat in the East.

Injuries and/or a poor bench look the only things that can hold them back.

Miami will be the team to beat, period. They will be odds-on favorites to win it all next year.

We were the odds on favorites to get the number 1 pick and draft Tim Duncan.

Like Han Solo said "Never tell me the odds".

[Eddie20]

I agree with CelticsWhat35, this is a good team on paper. They still have to play the games, but they're pretty darn good looking.

As far as reason #3 goes, have you seen our bench lately? We've got BBD and some rookies. They've got Haslem, big Z, juwan howard, joel anthony, chalmers, and if he doesn't start - Miller. So yeah, let's not compare at the moment.

If we resign Nate (and no one's said it's not happening), our backup PG will be better than any PG on the Heat's roster.  Baby is better than Howard and better than Joel freakin' Antony.  Heck if Baby can play alongside a traditional center like JO or Perk, he might even be more productive than Z.  And even if Ainge can't swing a deal for someone like Josh Howard, at the very least he'll bring in some vet min guys who'll be as good as Howard.

Mike

true, but the Heat will have the two best players in the series and it isn't close and you could easily argue that Bosh will be the third best player in the series.

Benches only really matter when the starting lineups are close.  I'm not sure our starting lineup is going to be close enough for our superior bencth to matter (if you told me right now that Perk, KG, Ray, PP, and Rondo were all 100% healthy entering the series, then I think we will be close enough, I just don't see that happening).

  You still have to account for how vulnerable the players beyond their trio to being exploited, and how well Wade and James mesh. Both of those two had the ball in their hands on nearly every possession for their teams, and either shot or passed the ball. If Wade's handling the ball and James doesn't, will James still affect the game like a top 3 player? If LeBron handles the ball on offense, will Wade still impact the game like a top 5 player? They're probably better individual players than PP/RA/KG were in '08, but it's hard to see them complementing each other as well. I'm also not sold on them as a great defensive team. Can they contain Dwight Howard? Can they contain Rondo and KG?

TP!

Exactly. Wade the shooter or James the shooter, which is what they become when the other has the ball, is not good as when they have the ball in their hands and creating offense. Clev. and Miami ran the same exact plays over and over for their James and Wade, a high pick and roll or an isolation. I see the same thing happening in Miami, but neither is that good shooting off the catch and instead prefer to shoot off the dribble as it gets them in a better shooting rhythm.

[PosImpos]

What's with this notion that the Miami Thrice don't have a supporting cast?

They have Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem coming off the bench - meaning they have two players on their bench who are better than anybody we have coming off the pine.

They'll have Big Z and probably Joel Anthony as centers, plus their second round big men Varnado and Pittman.  Not great, but all they need to do is rebound and play acceptable defense.  Big Z and Joel can do that, plus block a few shots too.

Chalmers will make a solid back up point guard - all they need to do is sign a vet point guard like Keyon Dooling, Jason Williams, or Earl Watson to start and play 20-25 minutes a night and they're fine.  Wade / LeBron will do most of the ball handling anyway.

Shore up the rest of the bench with guys like Juwon Howard, Kurt Thomas, Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes...their supporting cast will be above average. 

The only team in the league I can imagine really matching up with the Heat talent-wise are the Lakers.  The Finals are going to be interesting next year.

[BballTim]

What's with this notion that the Miami Thrice don't have a supporting cast?

They have Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem coming off the bench - meaning they have two players on their bench who are better than anybody we have coming off the pine.

They'll have Big Z and probably Joel Anthony as centers, plus their second round big men Varnado and Pittman.  Not great, but all they need to do is rebound and play acceptable defense.  Big Z and Joel can do that, plus block a few shots too.

Chalmers will make a solid back up point guard - all they need to do is sign a vet point guard like Keyon Dooling, Jason Williams, or Earl Watson to start and play 20-25 minutes a night and they're fine.  Wade / LeBron will do most of the ball handling anyway.

Shore up the rest of the bench with guys like Juwon Howard, Kurt Thomas, Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes...their supporting cast will be above average. 

The only team in the league I can imagine really matching up with the Heat talent-wise are the Lakers.  The Finals are going to be interesting next year.

  You lost me when you claimed that Z can play acceptable defense. Plus, many of the players on the list are a) done and b) not on the Heat.

[Eddie20]

What's with this notion that the Miami Thrice don't have a supporting cast?

They have Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem coming off the bench - meaning they have two players on their bench who are better than anybody we have coming off the pine.

They'll have Big Z and probably Joel Anthony as centers, plus their second round big men Varnado and Pittman.  Not great, but all they need to do is rebound and play acceptable defense.  Big Z and Joel can do that, plus block a few shots too.

Chalmers will make a solid back up point guard - all they need to do is sign a vet point guard like Keyon Dooling, Jason Williams, or Earl Watson to start and play 20-25 minutes a night and they're fine.  Wade / LeBron will do most of the ball handling anyway.

Shore up the rest of the bench with guys like Juwon Howard, Kurt Thomas, Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes...their supporting cast will be above average. 

The only team in the league I can imagine really matching up with the Heat talent-wise are the Lakers.  The Finals are going to be interesting next year.

  You lost me when you claimed that Z can play acceptable defense. Plus, many of the players on the list are a) done and b) not on the Heat.

I wouldn't take Haslem (who I've watched play since his Miami High days) over Baby, JO or Perk (whichever doesn't start between the last 2).

If they sign Williams, and he starts, that would be a recipe for disaster. They won't be able to prevent PG penetration and they lack interior D.

Z doesn't block shots anymore and he could barely move. He had less than a block per game and averaged 5 boards per game.

[the_Bird]

Outside of injuries, the big question is still how they come together defensively.  LeBron's a very good defender, but we'll have to see about the rest of the squad.  

Achille's heal may be point guard penetration, and a lack of a a real enforcer/shot-blocker in the middle.  If Joel Anthony and Big Z are holding down the fort, that's not exactly like Perk/KG or like Dwight Howard.  

Not sure how they're going to stop Howard, anyway.  Joel Anthony going to get the job done?  I like Z, but he's not playing more than 20MPG and he's slowed WAY down.  

If they bring back Arroyo or go with Chamlers as the primary point guard, Rondo could have a field day.  Can't stop him from penetrating, and don't have anyone to really back them up inside.   If Wade's playing the point, I'm not sure he's got quite the quickness to deal with Rondo's first step either.

Be interesting to see if Bosh is willing to use his athleticism more on the defensive end, to use his quickness and leaping ability to be more of a shotblocker in the middle.  Whether he's willing to change his game, focus more on that end of the floor and let Wade/LeBron do most of the scoring, is another potential friction point.

Two of the teams they have to go through; how are they stopping Dwight Howard, and how are they stopping Rajon Rondo?  Miami Heat are still the team to beat, but their potential weaknesses are against those two players.

EDIT: I keep forgetting about Haslem.  LeBron ought to be paying him under the table, he's giving up a crapton of money to go back.