Everyone seems nervous about Ray leaving but here are some reasons I think he stays.
1. For his son: who should stay in an area where they have one of the best children's hospitals.
2. To Win: He has won with us before he will win with us again.
3. For the money: If Ray wants to play on a good team besides ours he has to take a pay cut. Most of the good teams around the league are over the cap (except Chicago), meaning in order to go to such team he would either need to sign for the MLE or get us to work out a sign and trade.
If Bosh, Wade and Lebron decided they wanted to play together and they needed Ray he would have to sign for the vet min. Chicago is the only potential suitor who scares me. They could get Bosh or Boozer and still sign Ray to a contract we wouldn't want to match.
I believe he is just waiting until we give him a 3 year deal. As soon as Danny breaks down to do this he will sign with us.
I agree with reasons 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is true however. I don't think Danny is afraid of losing him at all, and I don't think he is going to "break down". This is looking a lot like the Posey negotiations. Danny has set a value, and I don't think he is going to go over it.
I also think Danny has no problem signing and trading him (in fact, he may prefer it if he can get the right deal), and whichever team gets Wade and/or Lebron is going to be offering him significantly more money than the C's will IMO, either through a straight signing (there are teams with a lot of cap space), or through a sign and trade. Those teams are going to be much more motivated to sign him than the C's are, and I think they will be much more likely to give him more years than the C's are willing to go.
So, I think there is a chance Ray could stay here, because he is comfortable, both with his family, and with the team/organization, however, if he does, he will likely be taking a sizable home town discount.
And the longer this takes to happen, the more it tells me that he is not set on staying here for those reasons, and will take the extra money, as soon as it is presented to him.
BTW, another thing to take into consideration is the fact that because of the over-36 rule, the C's can offer Ray a deal for 4 years (as long as it is signed before July 20th...Ray's Birthday) without it being affected by this rule. However, if another team offers him 4 years, it would be affected by the over-36 rule. This would mean that for another team to give him 4 years (you never know, given the way things are going in this market), they would have even more motivation to work out a sign and trade.