Free Agency: Stating the obvious

[SCBirdman]

By no means is this meant to be a revelation, but just my take on this craziness known as NBA free agency 2010.

1) There are only 2-3 players worthy of Max dollars.

If I were a GM, there are only three players, possibly just two that I would consider offering a max contract.

LBJ and D Wade. Dirk would be the third.

Bosh has done nothing to prove that he is worthy of a max dollars contract. Sure, he is going to get a max deal, but only because there are so many teams vying for his services. Bosh is an excellent complimentary player, but he is not capable of carrying a franchise. Leadership skills? I don't think so.

Joe Johnson worth a max deal? Are you serious? Sure Joe is a nice player, a great complimentary player, but, like Bosh, not a guy that can carry a franchise. He showed his lack of ability to lead the Hawks during their playoff meltdown to Orlando and near collapse in the first round to the lowly Bucks, playing without Andrew Bogut.

Amare Stoudemire- yet another guy that is going to get Max money, but is not a max player He is not a franchise player. He proved it against the Lakers. Sure, he had the one blow up game of 36 points, but overall, he still disappears and does not rebound or play defense on a consistent basis. He is an undersized center, perhaps even a little undersized PF who just wants to be a scorer. That is all you get with Amare. He is not a great locker room guy either, and has exhibited no leadership skills over the course of his entire career.

Carlos Boozer- to me, he is not even a top tier guy, but wants to be treated as one, and with the market, he will get paid like one. First of all, how can you trust this guy? He agreed to opt out of his rookie deal with Cleavland for the ownership to reward his play with a multi year deal for big bucks, then he signs a back door deal with Utah.

Now he wants our of Utah, a 50 win franchise with one of the top PG's in the NBA and a HOF coach. Who cares!

The Biggest Myth in Free Agency- It's NOT about the money.

Who are you guys trying to kid? It is only about the money.

IF LBJ goes back to Cleavland, if D-Wade goes back to Miami with or without Bosh, they are not going to the franchise with the best shot at winning multiple titles, they are simply taking that extra year the home team gets to pay them.

Cleavland probably a worse chance at winning a title than last year, barring a major overhaul of their roster.

Miami has overhauled their roster, basically stripping it in hopes of capturing Bosh and potentially LBJ to go along with D-Wade.

If D-Wade and LBJ really want to win, they should both pack their bags and head to the Windy City. That is where they have the very best chance to win multiple titles and re-establish the dynasty of MJ, Scottie and Phil. A lineup of Rose, Wade, Deng, LBJ and Noah would be unbeatable with a few solid reserves. James would be a mismatch at the PF position.

But it appears LBJ will go back to Cleavland, Wade to Miami, Johnson has signed a max deal with ATL.

Only Bosh and Boozer will leave their squads, both reaping the rewards of more money, but probably not improving their odds of winning a Championship.

Now, as for The Celtics, I believe we will continue to read about new names and potential trade partners for Rasheed Wallace's contract and who DA is chasing with the MLE, but it will probably be about a week from now until the smoke settles with the top tier guys and teams have more of an idea about their rosters.

I do like that we have over 10 million in S&T just from Sheed plus our D-Leaguers. I also think that Nate could be re-signed and used in a trade.

I like that Danny thinks outside the box and has excellent rapport with many franchises, so a mind blowing tade could happen at any point.

I think Ray is only a 60-40 bet as a re-sign an could end up leaving in a S&T deal. If that is how it shakes out, so be it. I do not think DA is going to over extend Ray's contract and I'm good with that. Anything past two seasons is counter-productive in the long term vision of the franchise.

After LBJ, D-Wade, Bosh, Amare, and Boozer do their thing, I think FA really begins for us, the Celtic fans. More and more info will be available then.

One last thing, whenever those guys say it wasn't about the money...just call BS or change the channel!

[clover]

With 30 teams, what do you expect those who don't get a top 2-3 player to do?  Aren't they then competing for the next best players available?  I could see an argument that said the next CBA would leave those making marginal max investments now at a real disadvantage.  But your argument seems to be that there's a super-elite tier and so those below that aren't worth the max.  If teams could offer a 'supermax' deal to the top 2-3, would you consider the next tier to be worthy of mere max deals?

[OhioGreen]

The problem, basically, is going to be with a majority of the great, or high tier players going back to their original teams, there are going to be many teams out there with huge amounts of money that they were planning to spend on these guys. So then the next tier of fair to good players are going to get bigger contracts than normal. And as usual we're going to be picking thru the scap heap of poor or over the hill has beens---and probably overpaying for these guys on top of it!
I really don't see any Celtic FA or trade action for at least 2-3 weeks, except maybe for our own FA's.
Sure hope Rondo and the Big 3 can take us all the way for the next couple of years cause doesn't look like any FA agent or draft help on the horizon.

[clover]

The problem, basically, is going to be with a majority of the great, or high tier players going back to their original teams, there are going to be many teams out there with huge amounts of money that they were planning to spend on these guys. So then the next tier of fair to good players are going to get bigger contracts than normal. And as usual we're going to be picking thru the scap heap of poor or over the hill has beens---and probably overpaying for these guys on top of it!
I really don't see any Celtic FA or trade action for at least 2-3 weeks, except maybe for our own FA's.
Sure hope Rondo and the Big 3 can take us all the way for the next couple of years cause doesn't look like any FA agent or draft help on the horizon.

Counting on the Big Three in '11-'12 seems a sorry situation indeed.

[kozlodoev]

I love self-proclaimed "staters of the obvious".

[billysan]

I dont know if I agree with the OP on all points. Pretty sure I dont, it seems like you just dont care for the idea of Chris Bosh making max money and substantiate the argument by using Amare and Boozer as examples. I think I would have used Jermaine O'Neal as a big who was 'already overpaid' and didnt ever get it done, using injury and lack of support as an annual excuse.

No matter what we think, the market is a supply and demand place that set's its own price. Height is a valuable commodity and the ability to play the 4/5 spot at a high level is always going to be in demand. Trying to set comparative value and price on these guys is always an excersize in futility as a fan IMO. Look at Eddie Curry, and the list goes on.

By the way, I dont like Bosh as a player either. I think he is soft big time. I think Amare is a head case and Boozer was unethical with his treatment of the Cleveland franchise. That doesnt change what price they will command on the FA market.

[BballTim]

  If something's obvious, shouldn't the post stating it be somewhat shorter?

[Surferdad]

  If something's obvious, shouldn't the post stating it be somewhat shorter?

TP for you.

In any case, "obvious" isn't even the rigfht word.  "Opinion" would have been more appropriate, because the whole thing revolves around how you value players and how much money is out there to spend this year (a lot).