Do not sign Pierce; Blow it up!

[birdwatcher]

Pierce was the best option out there we could sign and afford. I feel like next year will be similar to this year, but I think his decline will kick in rapidly after that. I hope not, but I watched the original Big three go down and I'd hate to go through that again. Even if we get everyone back (minus Sheed, insert cheap aging big man here), I don't think we make it as far. We need to get better because somehow because Chicago/Miami/NY/NJ/Orlando/Milwaukee/Atlanta will be better. You may laugh at NY/NJ now, but they have money and the desire to get better it looks like we're staying pretty much the same unless Danny grows some big brass balls before the season starts. We'll be a good team, but a step slower, a year older, and a lot farther away from a championship than 1 game 7.

[BballTim]

When has Rondo won a title without a superstar beside him?  He's been paired with three all-stars; he hasn't come close to having to carry a team on his own.

Also, I know it's a dirty little secret around the blog, but Rondo didn't exactly excel against Orlando or LA.  He was okay, but he certainly wasn't a superstar; he had 10+ assists in only three of the final 13 games, and he shot 50% or better in only three games in those last 13 games, as well.  Rondo wasn't the only guy to see a fall off in his game, but his lessened play certainly hurt us.  He's not close to being a true "superstar".

  Obviously Rondo hasn't won a title without a superstar next to him. But it's easy to argue that he went to game 7 of the finals without a superstar next to him. And saying he was paired with three all-stars isn't really true. And it's also a dirty little secret that Rondo was, in fact, excelling against Orlando until he started having problems with leg/back spasms. I thought you agreed that it affected his play in the 2nd half of that series but that doesn't seem to be the case.

  I agree that he didn't have his best series against LA. Part of it could have been physical. Part of it could have been LA's defense (which I wouldn't say was in any way superior to Cleveland or Orlando's. Part of it was undoubtedly the re-emergence of Pierce in the offense. But I'd say that after he's led his team to the finals, it's a little late to say he's incapable of it.

  Is Rondo close to being a "true superstar"? No. Will he ever be? I don't think we'll really know until PP either moves on or figures out how to better mesh with Rajon. Does he have to be one of the top 5 players in the game to get us back to the finals? No, he just has to impact the game like one and we've all seen him do that many times in the playoffs.

Not to turn this into a Rondo thread, but:

1) The year we won a title, all of the "big three" were all-stars; and

2) Rondo's only elite game against Orlando came in Game 2.  The other games, he was okay-to-very-poor.

Obviously, I like Rondo.  I'm glad he's on our team.  I've repeatedly called him a top five PG.  However, a top-five PG isn't enough to turn a team into a contender, which is why I think the estimate of us having an 80% to 85% of contending after rebuilding to be way, way too high.

It's not a knock on Rondo, it's just the nature of the NBA.  Teams generally require an elite superstar to win, and those few teams that have deviated from that mold have had amazing ensembles full of all-star talent.  Putting together a team in either such manner -- i.e., acquiring a superstar or collecting three or four all-stars -- is extremely difficult to do. 

It's why I'll always be a Danny defender:  he turned Paul Pierce plus a collection of draft picks (none higher than #5) into a team that won a title and reached the Finals twice.  That's fairly miraculous, and I commend him for it.  However, I just don't think that he -- or anybody -- can be expected to catch lightning in a bottle twice.

  Agree to disagree, I guess. I think the fact that he carried the team past Cleveland shows that he can lead a team to a title, you think his play against LA shows that he can't. You state (correctly) that Rondo will never be seen as a top 5 player but he was widely seen as a top 5 player in the postseason.

[I Lack Maturity]

I believe Pierce can still lead this team to another title as long as we get him a solid backup that can eat a lot of his regular season minutes. Mike Miller would be ideal. Pierce still has a lot left in the tank.

[LB3533]

I thought KG did as much "carrying" as Rondo did in the Cleveland series.

If we as Celtic and or Rondo fans really look at things objectively....fast forward into the future where Rondo and either Perkins or Baby are our 1st, 2nd and 3rd best players on the team?

That doesn't scare you guys?

Can Rondo be our #1 option on offense?

Isn't Rondo's best skill his passing and his off the ball defensive prowess? (And not his scoring/shooting?)

I think Rondo's impact on the game is largely related to being surrounded by good to very good players...who can get the job done on a consistent basis.

If Rondo is surrounded by young players who don't their "NBA left from their NBA right", then Rondo is going to struggle.

Not only will we see Rondo's offensive numbers decline (shooting percentages across the board, because defenses won't ignore him anymore), but his ability to run the team will decline as well based upon having less quality teammates around him.

I think Rondo is a great player, but I am unsure if he is a great player by himself.

Rondo obviously still has a long career left ahead of him and he does need to work on his game and the great thing about Rondo's early career is he has shown significant improvement each subsequent season.

That's a mark of consistent improvement each year. But one thing that was also consistent was he was surrounded by high caliber veteran teammates.

How Rondo would perform if he was surrounded by less than stellar teammates remains to be seen.

[Chief]

There is a big part of me that would like to see the Celtics go a bit younger. But with Doc coming back, I doubt it will happen. Hopefully they can persuade Ray into becoming the 6th man and sign a young wing to start.

[BballTim]

I thought KG did as much "carrying" as Rondo did in the Cleveland series.

If we as Celtic and or Rondo fans really look at things objectively....fast forward into the future where Rondo and either Perkins or Baby are our 1st, 2nd and 3rd best players on the team?

That doesn't scare you guys?

Can Rondo be our #1 option on offense?

Isn't Rondo's best skill his passing and his off the ball defensive prowess? (And not his scoring/shooting?)

I think Rondo's impact on the game is largely related to being surrounded by good to very good players...who can get the job done on a consistent basis.

If Rondo is surrounded by young players who don't their "NBA left from their NBA right", then Rondo is going to struggle.

Not only will we see Rondo's offensive numbers decline (shooting percentages across the board, because defenses won't ignore him anymore), but his ability to run the team will decline as well based upon having less quality teammates around him.

  I don't think this is the case at all. Rondo's scoring is generally higher when people like KG or PP are out of the lineup or are ineffective from playing hurt. His shooting percentages also stay about the same when defenses focus on him, and he gets a good amount of assists. Look at his numbers in January, when KG was out for much of the month. Rondo got 16/10 on 54% shooting. That's about the same scoring you get from Nash, and a bucket or two less a game than you get from Deron or Chris Paul (on 2-4 fewer shots a game from Rondo).

[celticsfan8591]

why is no one mentioning one of the biggest problems with rebuilding? we can't get anything close to fair  value for. everyone knows that KG is now strictly a jump shooter whose defensive skills have diminished.  throw in his knee problems, dubious crunch time play and humongous contract and its pretty clear that hes here to stay.  given that why shouldnt we hang onto him, re-sign Ray, trade Rasheeds contract for a valuable piece, get a stopgap big man and try for a championship?  We have a shot at the title! Enjoy this, it could be a while before we're at this level again     

[LB3533]

I thought KG did as much "carrying" as Rondo did in the Cleveland series.

If we as Celtic and or Rondo fans really look at things objectively....fast forward into the future where Rondo and either Perkins or Baby are our 1st, 2nd and 3rd best players on the team?

That doesn't scare you guys?

Can Rondo be our #1 option on offense?

Isn't Rondo's best skill his passing and his off the ball defensive prowess? (And not his scoring/shooting?)

I think Rondo's impact on the game is largely related to being surrounded by good to very good players...who can get the job done on a consistent basis.

If Rondo is surrounded by young players who don't their "NBA left from their NBA right", then Rondo is going to struggle.

Not only will we see Rondo's offensive numbers decline (shooting percentages across the board, because defenses won't ignore him anymore), but his ability to run the team will decline as well based upon having less quality teammates around him.

  I don't think this is the case at all. Rondo's scoring is generally higher when people like KG or PP are out of the lineup or are ineffective from playing hurt. His shooting percentages also stay about the same when defenses focus on him, and he gets a good amount of assists. Look at his numbers in January, when KG was out for much of the month. Rondo got 16/10 on 54% shooting. That's about the same scoring you get from Nash, and a bucket or two less a game than you get from Deron or Chris Paul (on 2-4 fewer shots a game from Rondo).

Pierce's "best month" was also in January. (Sheed too, surprisingly: coulda sworn it was all bad).

Ray had probably his worst month in January.

Basically, when KG went down it was up to either Paul or Ray to step up to help buffer the loss of KG. Pierce did step up, Ray did not. (Sheed stepped up too in January).

The point I was making is if we took away Pierce, Ray, KG and are just left with Rondo...can he be a guy who can still score and be a 20/10 guy on a bad team?

I don't see it. I don't think that is Rondo's game.

And if we go into rebuild mode, that's what we are left with.

[BballTim]

I thought KG did as much "carrying" as Rondo did in the Cleveland series.

If we as Celtic and or Rondo fans really look at things objectively....fast forward into the future where Rondo and either Perkins or Baby are our 1st, 2nd and 3rd best players on the team?

That doesn't scare you guys?

Can Rondo be our #1 option on offense?

Isn't Rondo's best skill his passing and his off the ball defensive prowess? (And not his scoring/shooting?)

I think Rondo's impact on the game is largely related to being surrounded by good to very good players...who can get the job done on a consistent basis.

If Rondo is surrounded by young players who don't their "NBA left from their NBA right", then Rondo is going to struggle.

Not only will we see Rondo's offensive numbers decline (shooting percentages across the board, because defenses won't ignore him anymore), but his ability to run the team will decline as well based upon having less quality teammates around him.

  I don't think this is the case at all. Rondo's scoring is generally higher when people like KG or PP are out of the lineup or are ineffective from playing hurt. His shooting percentages also stay about the same when defenses focus on him, and he gets a good amount of assists. Look at his numbers in January, when KG was out for much of the month. Rondo got 16/10 on 54% shooting. That's about the same scoring you get from Nash, and a bucket or two less a game than you get from Deron or Chris Paul (on 2-4 fewer shots a game from Rondo).

Pierce's "best month" was also in January. (Sheed too, surprisingly: coulda sworn it was all bad).

Ray had probably his worst month in January.

Basically, when KG went down it was up to either Paul or Ray to step up to help buffer the loss of KG. Pierce did step up, Ray did not. (Sheed stepped up too in January).

The point I was making is if we took away Pierce, Ray, KG and are just left with Rondo...can he be a guy who can still score and be a 20/10 guy on a bad team?

I don't see it. I don't think that is Rondo's game.

And if we go into rebuild mode, that's what we are left with.

  Rondo averaged 18/12 and shot about 50% from the field in the games Paul missed. He averaged about 17/10 in games KG missed. I don't think his fg% dropped much. He was only averaging about 12 a game when the injuries struck. So, while other players also stepped up Rondo was able to step up his production without any loss of efficiency when PP/KG were either out of the lineup or playing hurt and he was a bigger focus of the defense.

  And when you take away Ray and Paul and KG one would assume that they will be replaced with other players. Not necessarily better players, but likely players that fit in better with Rondo's game. Consider, for instance, the number of times Rondo pushes the ball up and then has to wait for his teammates to catch up. A little more speed and athleticism will add assists and high percentage basket to Rondo's totals.

[bigmoneysheed]

How can the Celtics maximize it for a few more years when their players are all getting really old.  Pierce's game will not translate well to being older - he can barely get separation to take his step back shots as it is.

The real risk here is that, by the time the Celtics can afford to actually rebuild, Rondo will be alienated and leave.

Here's the thing about rebuilding:  a wildly, above-all-expectations rebuilding effort puts your team back in the NBA finals.  The average rebuilding, on the other team, has you missing the playoffs / earning a low playoff seed, while you struggle with mediocrity.

Why are so many in such a rush to begin that process?  Right now, we're at the level that we'd want to be after we rebuild.  Let's maximize that for a few more years.

This team was 6 minutes away from a title, despite losing their starting center.  I'd like to see what it can do next season, especially with the Eastern Conference in flux.

I think that championships are such a rarity in the NBA that you maximize your chances at them when you have a chance.  Because of that, I'm not all that worried about three years from now.  All teams go through down times, and 2013 - 2014 might be ours.  I'm willing to sacrifice those years to compete now.

I mean, how many rebuilding teams ever sniff a championship?  Would you rather be in our situation, or New Orleans'?  Philly's?  The Clippers'?

We tried the rebuilding thing for pretty much two decades.  It sucked.  The only success we've had was when Danny totally reversed course and built around veterans.  I think a championship and another Finals run is all the proof we need that veterans > rebuilding.

Once the "big three" era is over, our team is going to stink, period.  Guys like Monta Ellis, Andre Iguodala, or Kevin Martin aren't going to change that any.  That being the case, why not maximize what we have now?

Breaking it up is a terrible idea.

Stay with the Big 3 and we will rematch the lakers

We older and slower than last year so we wont be able to beat them straight up

BUT

Injuries happen. Kobe injured? pau out? We can count on bynum being out and gifting us the championship like 2008

[celtics2]

Just another bad move by Celtic management. The Boston Celtic Home for the Aged and Rehab Center. Ed LaCerte will be the busiest active Celtic next season. Keep the gurneys close by. So lets make sure Sheed comes back to complete the folly. Bostonians love climbing up hill. Celtic Teams make Jerry West look like a genius. Well he is sorta. Up there with Red.

I bought in for 3 years. That's it. Can ya tell my vote was against the Pierce deal. Danny's gone soft. The East will not be kind to this over confident team this next season.

[RJ87]

Just another bad move by Celtic management. The Boston Celtic Home for the Aged and Rehab Center. Ed LaCerte will be the busiest active Celtic next season. Keep the gurneys close by. So lets make sure Sheed comes back to complete the folly. Bostonians love climbing up hill. Celtic Teams make Jerry West look like a genius. Well he is sorta. Up there with Red.

I bought in for 3 years. That's it. Can ya tell my vote was against the Pierce deal. Danny's gone soft. The East will not be kind to this over confident team this next season.

I actually agree with most of what you said. Boston is quickly becoming the retirement home of the NBA. What I saw at the end of Game 7 of the Finals was a veteran team looking OLD. That's not going to get better in a year. And while everyone is saying we were 6 minutes away from a Title, let's really look at the facts: This team had broken down in the 4th qtr for most of the season. It's a symptom of a bigger issues: fatigue due to old age.

I wanted Paul back, but not with that 4th year fully guaranteed. I think it's a mistake that will come back to bite us. Frankly, I don't want to see Paul at 36 trying to defend a 29 yr old Lebron James because we couldn't afford younger talent at his position due to him taking up $15-18m of the cap - a possibly hard cap that looks likely to be reduced under the new CBA. I don't wanna see Paul at 36 trying to keep up with 27 yr old Rondo on the fastbreak.

Paul's game is already declining, he doesn't get the benefit of the ref's whistle the way he used to. As I said above, I wanted him back. But not at the cost of the future. We saw how letting sentimentality rule us in the 80's went on to haunt us until 2007. I don't wanna go back there, I've seen the light.

[gar]

Rather have Ray than Pierce at this stage. Pierce is way down in terms of effectiveness. Ray has always been streaky, but can still get it done. Pierce is showing his mileage big time. To bad we may loose Ray and keep Pierce - hard to say; but true. The only consolation is that there are more SG options out there than SF. So only positive with keeping Pierce is that we can bid our time and get the wing that we need. Would still like to see a stronger backup for PP as I think he could sit out a portion of next year for any number of nagging injury problems.

[Junkyard Dawg]

And while everyone is saying we were 6 minutes away from a Title, let's really look at the facts: This team had broken down in the 4th qtr for most of the season.

I'd like to see that stat if anyone can find it.  If there was one quarter that killed us throughout the regular season, it was the 3rd quarter.  Most people would agree that indicates a lack of focus, not "broken down" players.

[Roy Hobbs]

Rather have Ray than Pierce at this stage. Pierce is way down in terms of effectiveness. Ray has always been streaky, but can still get it done. Pierce is showing his mileage big time. To bad we may loose Ray and keep Pierce - hard to say; but true. The only consolation is that there are more SG options out there than SF. So only positive with keeping Pierce is that we can bid our time and get the wing that we need. Would still like to see a stronger backup for PP as I think he could sit out a portion of next year for any number of nagging injury problems.

By what standard is Ray still effective but Pierce is losing a step?  I love Ray Allen, and think he's underrated by many, but last season Pierce led him in points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, and 3PT%.  Their overall FG% and eFG% were just about equal. 

Pierce is simply better than Ray right now, and Ray is closer to the end than Pierce is, in my opinion.