I think the safest and most likely scenario is that we 1) resign Ray for something like 2 years at 10M per 2) Pierce opts-out and then is resigned at a more manageable cap number 3) Sheed’s contract is traded for a big and then 4) we sign Brad Miller or Shaq for the MLE. I personally wouldn’t mind any of that, but I did think of one thing that no one has spoken about.
I think that if Danny gets the opportunity, he will try to make a big splash, just as he tried to do at this year’s deadline with the failed Boozer trade. I’ve done the math, and there is actually a “long-shot” way that the Celtics can get 2 max guys and retain Pierce.
Out of the top FAs, I see only Lebron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, JJ, and Boozer as max guys with a total of 11 openings (CHI 2, MIA 3, NY 2, NJ 2, LAC 1, MIN 1). I’m not counting Rudy Gay, Dirk, or PP because I’m assuming they all stay with their teams. That means that a few teams will be disappointed and a few will be suicidal if they get shut out (NY anyone?). So here is my idea…
Someone will get desperate when those top FAs start telling them they aren’t interested, and they’ll have to make some type of move. I could see NJ/NY/LAC saying, we’ll take KG off your hands for draft picks, just to appease the fans. If this happens, we would get back a trade exception for 18.8M, which could be used in a S&T scenario. Prior to the trade, management would need to get the OK from Pierce, and he would opt-out and then sign a 6 year $60M extension which would start at ~8M next season. We would then orchestrate a trade for one of the top FAs using the trade exception, Big Baby, Bradley, and any picks possible (‘11, ’13, and ability to swap picks, etc.) Then we’d sign one other max guy.
So in summary:
1) Pierce opts-out and then re-signs
2) We trade KG only for draft picks
3) S&T for one of the top FAs
4) Sign another top FA
Factoring in cap holds as well as renouncing players, this works with a 56M salary cap. I’m not saying it’s realistic, but I’m sure this is the type of scenario that Ainge has thought of, probably not for too long though.