OK, thinking about this some more, I think it might make a lot of sense for Pierce to opt out, and sign a 2 year/$36 million deal, with the second year at a player option.
Now, this is going to ask him to give up the chance at really cashing in this summer, but I think he may consider that. He has made plenty of money, and a deal like this would allow him to be a ring chaser in 2012 and beyond (which I think he would love), rather than being stuck on a lottery team with an untradable contract (which he would hate).
Money-wise, this deal would save the C's about $6 million this season, while costing Paul $3 million. But Paul would likely make that up next season. He wouldn't get the longterm money he wants, but he may be OK with that.
The player option also allows him to walk next summer in case things go south this year, and Danny decides to blow it up.
The biggest risk in this for Pierce is that there is a lockout in 2011, and he basically gave up $3 million for nothing. But ultimately, he might take that chance.
I still think he is more likely to pick up his option for next season, but if he doesn't, I think this scenario could play out.