Rebuild now, or rebuild later?

[screwedupmaniac]

I've heard different opinions on what we should do this offseason. Blow it up and rebuild? Or give it another run with the old veterans around Rondo?

This is the way I see it. Yes, we could blow up the core nucleus that we have now, but we will get zero worth back from any team for anyone that's not named Rajon Rondo. I look around the league, and I don't see any team that is a Paul Pierce or Kevin Garnett away from a championship. In the "Summer of Lebron", all the focus is on premiere players in free agency (Lebron, Bosh, Wade, Johnson, Amare, etc). If we wanted to get worth back for any of our older players, our chance ended last February when we failed to part ways with Ray Allen. I know, we were 4 points away from banner 18...but that is exactly what happened: we fell short, as did Ray's jumpshot with the exception of game 2.

This is what will happen this offseason: we will offer Ray a 2 year contract. There will be no major moves this offseason, but we will be putting ourselves in a position to have major money coming off of our books in 2012 (the end of the world for the rest of the league, according the Mayan calendar). Will Brook Lopez stay in New Jersey? I doubt it. That's the free agent that I'm keeping my fingers crossed for.

2013 will have it's share of free agent talent as well (Josh Smith, Kevin Martin, Al Jefferson, Chris Paul or Deron Williams {S+T with another team perhaps? No need for another PG}, and Dwight Howard amongst other names).

I say all that to say this: Danny's good at drafting, but the best moves he ever made were in trading...we've never had a chance to see what Danny's capable of WITH cap room, we've only seen him work his magic with no cap space. Any player that's looking to be the focal point on offense should find playing next to the best pass-first point guard in the game to be a luxury.

Bunker in gang, we'll probably be seeing the same basic supporting cast for another 2 seasons.

[Q_FBE]

I feel like we are in the same position as the Stockton-Malone Jazz. Always in the running but never quite good enough to break through. And they lost 4-2 to the Bulls on Micheals last shot.

In our case we lose on a last minute Ron Artest three pointer to put the Lakers ahead by two possessions in Game 7 of the Finals.

We face retooling and reloading but we owe it to ourselves to keep fighting because a rebuild could easily doom us to the lottery for years even with Rondo as our PG and he ends up leaving at the end of the contract.

Plus Lebron, Bosh, Melo, and Dwayne Wade are most likely not going to be walking through that door. 

[Chris]

I agree.  Reload when there is an opportunity to make a smart deal.  Until that opportunity presents itself, try to win as many games as you can, while hopefully building value of your players.  

Nothing good comes from forcing things in this league.  You need to just be patient, and make smart moves, rather than sticking to a strict plan.  

[gar]

Danny is putting it in the hands of his vets. If they resign for one more it will be on terms that allow the C's to compete. If not they rebuild around Rondo.

[Who]

I would love to see if Danny can hold out 3-4 days at the beginning of free agency to get a feel for where the top free agents are heading before making a decision on whether or not to re-sign Ray Allen. I don't know if that will be possible or not but it would be great, that added information, if it could happen.

I would also like to see Danny try to find out if there are trades out there for Garnett because that will decide in large part whether it's worth undergoing a large rebuilding process.

[Jon]

Yeah.  It makes zero sense to start rebuilding now.  I think anyone who thinks differently doesn't really have a clear grasp on the salary cap realities of our situation.  Quite frankly, I don't see us in a position to make any big moves until at least next summer when KG's deal will only have one year left and thus be desirable.

And I don't think we even have to trade anyone.  I think we go into the 2011-2012 season looking to see what we can get for KG (and Ray if he's still here).  If it isn't good, we can just let them expire and use the cap space.

Until then, as Chris said, we might as well win as many games as possible.  And quite frankly, though we could cite a hundred different reasons why we lost.  A couple calls or bounces go differently in Game 7 and we have banner #18.  This really isn't like the Jazz at all.  The were a bounce or call away from going to a game 7 that they likely would've lost twice.

[Chris]

I would love to see if Danny can hold out 3-4 days at the beginning of free agency to get a feel for where the top free agents are heading before making a decision on whether or not to re-sign Ray Allen. I don't know if that will be possible or not but it would be great, that added information, if it could happen.

I would also like to see Danny try to find out if there are trades out there for Garnett because that will decide in large part whether it's worth undergoing a large rebuilding process.

I don't think he will have a choice actually.  I think Ray is going to take a few days to test the market and see what he can get.  But I think he will essentially give Danny the right of first refusal.  

I actually expect Ray not to be signed until at least a week or two into free agency (that is after July 8th, when they can actually sign, not July 1st), since Ray's market will not really present itself until the bigger names sign.  

I also expect Danny and Ray to explore sign and trade deals before they decide what to do, just to see what's out there, as well as establish market value.

[Birdbrain]

Bunker in gang, we'll probably be seeing the same basic supporting cast for another 2 seasons.

That seems like the most logical and most prudent basketball decision unless the ownership is looking to lose a lot this season.  It appears some of the fans are but, I suspect ownership and Danny specifically aren't.

My.02 cents.  Everyone comes back for 2 years.

[hwangjini_1]

Good thread that raises  interesting scenarios.

I see no real advantage to blowing it all up now. Honestly, I think that the current team has one more run left in it. Add miller and a shooter and this team can win it all.

Next, if anige has to sign folks for two years, that is fine. Year one means a run to the championship is possible. Year two, either a miracle-on-court last hurrah by the vets, or, we watch an aging team in decline.  Given that blowing the team up is an automatic way to make losing a reality, I can live with one season of aging vets.

Also, in the two year signing scenario, during the second year,THEN anige is in a better position to blow the team up and trades expiring contracts or reaps their benefits for year three.

In this scenario, celtics have the cap room to sign free agents for year three.

So, does anyone here know which big name players will be a free agent 2 to 3 years from now?

[More Banners]

Well...we know the current roster can't play at 100% through the regular season or they'll be completely drained by April.  That's quite pathetic, and the team absolutely needs to improve their depth (meaning, the quality of the rotation players, not the quantity) in order to play a full 48 minutes every night.  If they fail to do this, I think vinnie might make the front page of the Herald in some sort of "Celtics fan loses it" scenario.

So sure, they have a number of holes to fill, but filling them with other vets who can only play limited minutes, and who pick their spots to put in that extra tommy point-level effort, is not what we need.  So no Brad Millers, Shaqs, or other tired old players.  And no 3+ year contracts to anyone over 30 (that means Mike Miller).

The style of the team can be enhanced by going with atletic, running & rebounding PF's and SF's and not paying washed up 7 footers.  I know length is important, but there is more than one way to win.

[pearljammer10]

I wouldnt say that we will rebuilding either way. Just adding to pieces and filling holes. If we were going to rebuild that would mean Pierce and KG both would get traded...Something that isnt going to happen, no one is going to take KG's contract this year with his bad knees and all...

However we can still put together a winning squad while keeping KG and Pierce and bringing in players that will fit Rondo's game better. If we can net a high flying wing and a high flying center to fill the lane on the break then this starting lineup could still be pretty deadly. Rondo needs a couple guys to play alongside him in transition. It would be awful to waste his young years in a slow half court offense set.

[Birdbrain]

Well...we know the current roster can't play at 100% through the regular season or they'll be completely drained by April.  That's quite pathetic, and the team absolutely needs to improve their depth (meaning, the quality of the rotation players, not the quantity) in order to play a full 48 minutes every night.  If they fail to do this, I think vinnie might make the front page of the Herald in some sort of "Celtics fan loses it" scenario.

So sure, they have a number of holes to fill, but filling them with other vets who can only play limited minutes, and who pick their spots to put in that extra tommy point-level effort, is not what we need.  So no Brad Millers, Shaqs, or other tired old players.  And no 3+ year contracts to anyone over 30 (that means Mike Miller).

The style of the team can be enhanced by going with atletic, running & rebounding PF's and SF's and not paying washed up 7 footers.  I know length is important, but there is more than one way to win.

There is no way that Brad Miller would get the Full MLE (that he apparently is looking for) from the C's.  Now if he want's a the vet min he can play back minutes for 2 years.  I'm with you though anyone they bring in who's in his 30's hopefully is only signed for 2 years.  I would love to sign everyone and keep this together for 2 years and the let DA have cap space to build around Rondo. I'm hoping LJ signs another short term contract with Cleveland that coincides with Boston clearing space and if he doesn't win in Cleveland on this contract he takes his rightful place in Boston to continue winning for the next decade.

[screwedupmaniac]

I'm hoping LJ signs another short term contract with Cleveland that coincides with Boston clearing space and if he doesn't win in Cleveland on this contract he takes his rightful place in Boston to continue winning for the next decade.

Only problem with that is that Lebron is a great athlete, but he's not a winner, and he lacks the clutch gene. I see a lot of KG in Lebron in the sense that KG, while being one of the best PF's of all time, never won anything until he decided he was willing to be a second or third option on a deep team versus being the man on a moderately talented team.

I'd much rather find a way to land Mello's offensive game to replace Pierce, very similar games if you ask me.

[Birdbrain]

I'm hoping LJ signs another short term contract with Cleveland that coincides with Boston clearing space and if he doesn't win in Cleveland on this contract he takes his rightful place in Boston to continue winning for the next decade.

Only problem with that is that Lebron is a great athlete, but he's not a winner, and he lacks the clutch gene. I see a lot of KG in Lebron in the sense that KG, while being one of the best PF's of all time, never won anything until he decided he was willing to be a second or third option on a deep team versus being the man on a moderately talented team.

I'd much rather find a way to land Mello's offensive game to replace Pierce, very similar games if you ask me.

Fair enough he deserves some of that criticism until he preforms no doubt.  I'm no sycophant when it comes to LJ. But he's 25 and has the most raw talent in the NBA so I'll throw the dice expecting him to deliver down the stretch as he gets a bit older.  Imagine if he would the finisher on a Rondo led fast break.

[wdleehi]

I really think that they should sign nobody (but a discount Perk extension) past two years.  When KG is done.


That gives them at most, 2 years to try and win again with KG.  (more likely one since the 2nd year will likely be a lockout.  Though a lockout shorten season might give an old Celtics team an advantage)


Then, go into the the new agreement year with only Rondo, Perk and what ever rookie contracts are on the team, and start rebuilding.


Along the way, if the Celtics can make smart moves that help, do it.