Without Bron, they are probably a 35-40 win team with 40 mil locked up in a "core" of Jamison, Williams, Varejao, Boobie Gibson and JJ Hickson until the summer of 2012.
That group stinks of a quick firesale to me.
I think you're right about the 40 wins.
But if he bolts, they still have enough talent to make a run at a playoff spot without adding anyone else. Actually, they'll probably play much better TEAM ball.
If he bolts, they'll have cap space...probably won't sign anyone big-name, but will be able to add assets. 2nd tier guys like Rudy Gay and JJohnson are possibilities, or Travis Outlaw for slightly above the midlevel to stay under the cap.
So they'll be able to add talent while continuing to develop Hickson. If they can add one more solid young piece like Outlaw or Gay, they might be a better team. I think Lebron makes the players around him worse, and Shaq won't be there to get in the way. Oh, and they'll have a new, and likely better, coach...
Actually [thinking of the movie A Beautiful Mind here] they might be better off courting someone else and let another GM beg Lebron to castrate him. I suppose it's possible to get two very good wings for $16 million rather than one max guy? A $10 million and a $6 million? And those guys would be very pleased to be courted and sign on, while letting the coach be a coach and the GM do his job, too?