Why Didn't Doc Bench Ray?

[looseball]

Players generally have a range of minutes they play.  You play at the higher range when you're having a good night, and at the lower range when you're having an off night, whether you're a starter or a sub.  The starters' range will be a good deal higher than the subs' range.

I would say Ray's range is probably around 32-42 minutes.  I would say he was not having a good night last night.  I would conclude he should have played at his lower range of minutes, and playing him at his highest range was a mistake on Doc's part.

[Crushmaster]

I'm flattered you guys took me seriously!  I may be onto something!

Mr Bankshot, if your point is Doc should have benched Ray based on short-term performance, I was merely attempting to take your reasoning to its logical conclusion (reduction ad absurdum).  You think he should have been benched at some point in the second half because of three bad quarters of basketball.  Not, mind you, because of a multi-game slump or a prolonged decline, because of one game (I'm assuming you had no problem with his performance in game 2).  So at what point in a game does a player's in-game performance - a player, I might add, who is a starter, a proven prolific scorer, a great shooter by any and all standards, a player considered “clutch”, a future Hall of Famer, and a player who set several Finals long-distance shooting records THE PRIOR GAME - at what point and with what criteria does one go against all prior precedents regarding playing time, player roles and substituting patterns and bench such a player?  If you don't like my system, please give me yours.  It's easy to double-guess Doc after the fact, but if Ray cans that corner 3 and the Celtics come back and win, a lot of people on this site (not necessarily you, but possibly) would be back on the Ray train and praising Doc for sticking with him.  Likewise, if Doc pulled him, like you argue he should, and the Celtics lose, Doc might have damaged Ray's confidence for the series and sent a message to the rest of the team that maybe they should start looking over their shoulders too.  Stability, routine – these are crucial things to athletes.  Doc did the exact right thing.  It's not just sticking with the guys who got you there (loyalty); and it’s not just giving yourself the best chance to win the game (arguable, but I’ll take Ray 0-13 shooting 3s late in the game over TA); It’s also allowing a guy to get himself going that you are not winning the series without.  It's strategy trumping tactics.  Many fans are suffering from congenital myopia on this site.  You don't react in a panicky way to every twist and turn of a game.  Doc has possibly four more games consider in this series.  Sometimes you lose the battle, but you give yourself a chance to win the war. 
 

[gar]

Playing Rondo all game backfired all season and is backfiring in the playoffs. There is a huge drop off in the 4th. Exception was when he had the fouls and Nate let him sit. He came back out attacked and won the game w/ the block on Fisher.

Need to sit Rondo not Ray. Rondo's horrendous defense against Fisher at the end of the game killed us.

[pearljammer10]

Yea but it didnt help that Ray wasn't switching and just picking Rondo basically... Rondo had to get through two picks, Kobe and Ray and had no help on the other side...You would think after the first one you would change whats not working...I guess not.

[Meadowlark_Scal]

He should have taken Ray out for a while...did he play all game......when it isn't working, you give it a rest..maybe come back to it.....I'd also say, I would have tried some Marquis, Sheldon, even SCAL.....when the starters aren't doing jack, you have to try other things...this whole season was the same......when the starters were cold...they usually stayed that way....this team has proven that over and over......BBD is #1 when it comes to reacting to "other" players taking his time, we played Sheldon last game..BBD came out after smoking..he has that "contract year" mentality...whenever it looks like doc is looking past him, he puts it all out there....so..try it with others also......it couldn't have been any worse, LA had easy hoops, open hoops..it was terrible...!

[action781]

This is real simple, You do not bench a guy that can turn a game around with a couple of outside shots when there wasn't another player on the court that could hit outside shots.

Pierce was in foul trouble all night. That meant Tony Allen had to be playing. Once KG sat, without Ray, there's no threat of an outside shot and without a threat of an outside shot to space the floor LA packs it in and Boston will have major problems scoring.

Ray, even cold, is a threat to hit and keep hitting at any time. He must stay in the game as a threat to hit the outside shot so that space opens up for Perk, pierce, KG, Rondo and the rest of the Celtics to operate inside when they need to.

You don't bench Ray for that reason, because he's your best three point threat and because he just went off and the chances of him going 0 for the game the next game are unfathomable.

Define unfathomable.  Because I believe it was just fathomed.  Anybody who believes something is "unfathomable" and it ends up happening is inept at fathoming in my opinion.  Even KG said, "Anything is possible."  That anything doesn't always have to be a positive thing.

I was calling for Ray to be benched in favor of Tony during the game, but my friend insisted with the same logic that "he can hit at any moment."  But couldn't Tony also?  To me, they both seemed equally unlikely at the time.  But in the game up to that point, Tony had harassed Kobe on defense and Ray was letting Kobe get off shots he wanted, even if they were "contested" we know that Kobe can still hit contested shots that he wants. 

[guava_wrench]

He should have taken Ray out for a while...did he play all game......when it isn't working, you give it a rest..maybe come back to it.....I'd also say, I would have tried some Marquis, Sheldon, even SCAL.....when the starters aren't doing jack, you have to try other things...this whole season was the same......when the starters were cold...they usually stayed that way....this team has proven that over and over......BBD is #1 when it comes to reacting to "other" players taking his time, we played Sheldon last game..BBD came out after smoking..he has that "contract year" mentality...whenever it looks like doc is looking past him, he puts it all out there....so..try it with others also......it couldn't have been any worse, LA had easy hoops, open hoops..it was terrible...!

It is not true that when the starters are cold, they usually stay that way, no matter how many periods you put between phrases.

Is there some significance to the number of periods used? What is the difference between 2 and 6 periods?

Play Scal in his suit? That is illegal. Marquis? Why? What skill would he be bringing and what has he shown? When shot has he hit? Won't he just clog the lane? At least LA will defend Ray wherever he goes.

Keeping Ray in was the better move.

[GreenFaith1819]

Well, to expound a little on what nickagneta stated:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzlSsWnZxt0&feature=fvst

Ray Allen is Always A Threat - he was like 2 for 14 that game, but nailed that buzzer beater!

Sweet!

[action781]

Well, to expound a little on what nickagneta stated:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzlSsWnZxt0&feature=fvst

Ray Allen is Always A Threat - he was like 2 for 14 that game, but nailed that buzzer beater!

Sweet!

One of my favorite moments.  My friend and I started hugging eachother immediately after haha.

Just to be argumentative here... he was 4/15 that game, so 3/14 at the time of the shot.  I see your point, but do you feel like there is a difference between 3/14 and 0/12?  Between having a poor shooting night and not hitting a single d*mn fga all game?  I'm not completely decided, but leaning towards thinking there's a difference and this isn't exactly apples to apples.  

[GreenFaith1819]

Action781 - I see your point, and it's a valid one I think.

But from what I have seen with Celtics opponents this season, they are absolutely terrified of our 3 pt threat, and I am sure LA is afraid of Ray Allen after Game 2.

Slightly off topic here - but CLE was terrified of Sheed in that series, even if some of us were doubting Sheed's worth. I remember one series where CLE had Sideshow on KG, and Z on Sheed. Big Z was absolutely terrified of leaving Sheed alone at the three line, which is where he was perched on this particular play.

Well, with the isolation, KG was able to blow by Sideshow and get to the hoop for a dunk on that play - based off of the Threat of Sheed's three.

Well, we have that same threat of Ray - Doc did the right thing by leaving him in. His next shot is always a threat to go in.

Ray Allen has burned Too Many Foes in his illustrious Career to be left alone or forgotten - just based off of the threat of his next shot.

Ray Allen is Cold-Blooded Assassin - A Smooth Criminal.

I can bet my next dollar that Ray Allen won't go 0 for 12 in the next game - and LA is terrified right now of that Fact.

[studstar]

because like one poster said, he still spreads the floor and the lakers STILL GUARD HIM CLOSE, despite the horrid shooting, that floor spreading is one reason KG could go to the lane with relative ease.

also, he was taking good shots, maybe 2 0r 3 'bad' ones but in general in the flow good type of shots. it's fine for me that he stayed on the court.

[nickagneta]

This is real simple, You do not bench a guy that can turn a game around with a couple of outside shots when there wasn't another player on the court that could hit outside shots.

Pierce was in foul trouble all night. That meant Tony Allen had to be playing. Once KG sat, without Ray, there's no threat of an outside shot and without a threat of an outside shot to space the floor LA packs it in and Boston will have major problems scoring.

Ray, even cold, is a threat to hit and keep hitting at any time. He must stay in the game as a threat to hit the outside shot so that space opens up for Perk, pierce, KG, Rondo and the rest of the Celtics to operate inside when they need to.

You don't bench Ray for that reason, because he's your best three point threat and because he just went off and the chances of him going 0 for the game the next game are unfathomable.

Define unfathomable.  Because I believe it was just fathomed.  Anybody who believes something is "unfathomable" and it ends up happening is inept at fathoming in my opinion.  Even KG said, "Anything is possible."  That anything doesn't always have to be a positive thing.

I was calling for Ray to be benched in favor of Tony during the game, but my friend insisted with the same logic that "he can hit at any moment."  But couldn't Tony also?  To me, they both seemed equally unlikely at the time.  But in the game up to that point, Tony had harassed Kobe on defense and Ray was letting Kobe get off shots he wanted, even if they were "contested" we know that Kobe can still hit contested shots that he wants. 

So you are going to make fun of my use of an adjective and call me inept at something? What is so hard to understand about what I said?

After going 11-20 and 8-11 from three on Sunday night it is almost impossible to conceive(unfathomable) that Ray Allen could go 0-13 in the very next game. Just because you are in the immensely vast minority that could conceive this ahead of time(which by the way I seriously doubt, I am more inclined to believe you are just doing a magnificent job of being brilliant through Monday morning quarterbacking), doesn't make the notion unfathomable for all us much less clairvoyant people.

A coach needs to play the odds. The odds are that at any given time(ANY GIVEN TIME, even after Ray has missed 12 straight shots and Tony Allen has made 12 straight shots) Ray Allen will hit a shot before Tony Allen will. In a late game situation, Ray Allen has to be in if you are behind, not Tony Allen. It's the correct and intelligent basketball decision to make because Ray has more experience in making shots in those situations, is more likely to hit a shot in those situations, and creates more opportunities for his team mates to hit shots in those situations. Just one look at the 20 footer Tony heaved up earlier in the game is testament to that fact.

[Crushmaster]

I was calling for Ray to be benched in favor of Tony during the game, but my friend insisted with the same logic that "he can hit at any moment."  But couldn't Tony also?  To me, they both seemed equally unlikely at the time.

So the argument comes down to whether or not past performance is a reliable indicator of future performance, and you seem to come down on the side that, indeed, it is, and that past performance would indicate Tony is a viable alternative to Ray at shooting guard in crunch time.  But under what criteria would Tony be just as likely (or unlikely) to hit a shot as Ray?  Is your sample size the current game only, regardless of past performance in their respective careers?  You really believe Doc should coach the game based on the last ten FG attempts, or is it five, or fifteen?  There is no shooter sitting on the bench that can come into the game, be expected to shoot at least as well as Ray, and cover Kobe.  Your personal angst over the result of the game isn't reason enough for Doc to scrap his entire coaching philosophy and his rotation in the 3rd game of the NBA finals.  He went with what's worked in the past, and it didn't work this time.  The same 'logic' you're applying would have had Ray irretrievably buried on the bench halfway through the Atlanta series in 08, and we all know how that turned out.       

[Bankshot]

I'm flattered you guys took me seriously!  I may be onto something!

Mr Bankshot, if your point is Doc should have benched Ray based on short-term performance, I was merely attempting to take your reasoning to its logical conclusion (reduction ad absurdum).  You think he should have been benched at some point in the second half because of three bad quarters of basketball.  Not, mind you, because of a multi-game slump or a prolonged decline, because of one game (I'm assuming you had no problem with his performance in game 2).  So at what point in a game does a player's in-game performance - a player, I might add, who is a starter, a proven prolific scorer, a great shooter by any and all standards, a player considered “clutch”, a future Hall of Famer, and a player who set several Finals long-distance shooting records THE PRIOR GAME - at what point and with what criteria does one go against all prior precedents regarding playing time, player roles and substituting patterns and bench such a player?  If you don't like my system, please give me yours.  It's easy to double-guess Doc after the fact, but if Ray cans that corner 3 and the Celtics come back and win, a lot of people on this site (not necessarily you, but possibly) would be back on the Ray train and praising Doc for sticking with him.  Likewise, if Doc pulled him, like you argue he should, and the Celtics lose, Doc might have damaged Ray's confidence for the series and sent a message to the rest of the team that maybe they should start looking over their shoulders too.  Stability, routine – these are crucial things to athletes.  Doc did the exact right thing.  It's not just sticking with the guys who got you there (loyalty); and it’s not just giving yourself the best chance to win the game (arguable, but I’ll take Ray 0-13 shooting 3s late in the game over TA); It’s also allowing a guy to get himself going that you are not winning the series without.  It's strategy trumping tactics.  Many fans are suffering from congenital myopia on this site.  You don't react in a panicky way to every twist and turn of a game.  Doc has possibly four more games consider in this series.  Sometimes you lose the battle, but you give yourself a chance to win the war. 
 

You know, I'm only talking about benching Ray for a few minutes in the 4th quarter.  I really don't see what's wrong with going with a guy that was producing over Ray.... Tony.  He was getting to the basket and defending Kobe very well.  The Lakers were in the penalty.  Most after the game was asking why weren't the Celtics driving to the basket. Well Tony would have because that's all he does and Bynum was on the bench so there should have been no fear driving.

[Tai]

So if Ray hits two shots, this topic probably doesn't happen.

Look, even if you don't want him taking a shot, then 's , have him spread the floor, let passes to KG and Pierce be easier, and go from there! But what is this about having TA in...to defend Kobe? Kobe wasn't even the reason the Lakers won down the stretch; that was Old Man Fisher cause Rondo didn't take him seriously!

We stop Fisher from going off, we win even with Ray not making a field goal; that's another way to put what happened.