Is Ray Allen Playing His Way Out Of Boston?

[Birdbrain]

Not sure if this has been posted but...

Chris Mannix of SI was on WEEI today. He's been told by a couple of NBA GMs that Ray's market, based on his overall year and eye-popping playoffs, might be up to 5 years/$75M. He suggested that a New York, or a similar team looking to make a big splash might be willing to overspend to get him. He also noted Ray's great locker-room rep around the league.

Other details:

-Danny shopped Ray last summer due to fears about what Ray might want this summer.
-Believes Ray would take a hometown discount.
-Believes Ray really likes NY.

It begs the question - if someone offers 5 years and say, $60M (just to make the rumor a bit more reasonable), does Boston really want to commit that much money given the team's closing championship window?

I don't believe the story but, if true nice knowing ya Jesus.

[the_Bird]

Let's say the market value of Ray Allen has risen, to where he's commanding a 3 year, $30M contract.  A month and a half ago, I would have said 2yr/$20M, but clearly seems that he's got a little more left in the tank than I supposed.

It AIN'T 5/$75M, that's not even worth discussing.

Anything preclude the Celtics from structuring that deal to be something like $12M in year one, $12M in year two, and $6M in the final year?  Pay him more in the next couple years, and less in the final year?  Hhis play will presumably have dropped off, but more importantly this would give us a little more flexibility in rebuilding come the last year of his contract (when KG and 'Sheed will be off the books).

The only contract I can think of whose value declines each year is Nochioni's, so I'm not sure what the rules are that might govern those situations.    

[More Banners]

The over-36 rule will also apply, meaning that if he was to be signed in a deal for more than 3 years, the salary for years 4 and 5 (if applicable) would be averaged out over the first 3 years for cap purposes.  This effectively means that any person who reports on NBA salary stuff should know that there is a near-zero chance that Ray will be offered more than a 3 year deal from ANYONE.  Since he's not worth anywhere near the max, a 10-12 million per year deal is probably where offers will top out, even for teams like NY, putting him directly in the Manu range at the high end.

The C's ace in the game is the ability to sign him for a high initial amount, not having to use or save cap space for anything, and then have the deal decrease in value per year to accomodate (presumably) fewer minutes per game, and the addition of the increasing value of the contract of his replacement.  But I'm pretty sure it will take a 3 year deal to keep him (and Paul, for that matter).

[Q_FBE]

That is why it is so darn critical we win this series this week. This is glories last shot....

Next year we might get someone like Hedo Turkoglu to replace Ray Allen.

Knowing Danny Ainge's history of trading out players, I would have to say Ray Allen has a better than 50-50 chance of representing a new team next year. A lot depends on where Bosh and Lebron end up going. Suppose they end up on the Bulls. Does Ray Allen go there and we end up with ..... Kirk Hinrich? Can we trade Perkins for Noah?

Furthermore  do we say thanks to KG and trade him back to Minnesota for Al Jefferson.

This offseason is frightening me. That is why this series means so much to me and it should to you.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Manu Ginobli's deal pretty much set Ray's value.  What was it?  3 yrs, $38 million?  Ouch...

This, I would guess, is spot on (and for those penny-pinchers among us I believe deal was worth $38.9 million). Manu was 32 when he signed his extension with the Spurs, but on balance also coming off a major injury and, while a great player in his own right, in a tier below Allen.

[misha]

Those numbers in the first post are carzy. I'm sure Ray will sign here for a reasonable amount.

[Birdbrain]

That is why it is so darn critical we win this series this week. This is glories last shot....

Next year we might get someone like Hedo Turkoglu to replace Ray Allen.

Knowing Danny Ainge's history of trading out players, I would have to say Ray Allen has a better than 50-50 chance of representing a new team next year. A lot depends on where Bosh and Lebron end up going. Suppose they end up on the Bulls. Does Ray Allen go there and we end up with ..... Kirk Hinrich? Can we trade Perkins for Noah?

Furthermore  do we say thanks to KG and trade him back to Minnesota for Al Jefferson.

This offseason is frightening me. That is why this series means so much to me and it should to you.

Please clarify this erroneous statement about trading out players.  He got rid of 1 fat overrated scrub during his tenure.

This series is big because it's the finals but, it won't be the last finals with this group.

[Fafnir]

Manu Ginobli's deal pretty much set Ray's value.  What was it?  3 yrs, $38 million?  Ouch...

This, I would guess, is spot on (and for those penny-pinchers among us I believe deal was worth $38.9 million). Manu was 32 when he signed his extension with the Spurs, but on balance also coming off a major injury and, while a great player in his own right, in a tier below Allen.

Manu is a much better player than Ray Allen at this point in their careers when he's at all healthy.

He can creat off the dribble for himself and others, while still being a very efficient shooter and better defender than Ray Allen.

[RJ87]

That is why it is so darn critical we win this series this week. This is glories last shot....

Next year we might get someone like Hedo Turkoglu to replace Ray Allen.

Knowing Danny Ainge's history of trading out players, I would have to say Ray Allen has a better than 50-50 chance of representing a new team next year. A lot depends on where Bosh and Lebron end up going. Suppose they end up on the Bulls. Does Ray Allen go there and we end up with ..... Kirk Hinrich? Can we trade Perkins for Noah?

Furthermore  do we say thanks to KG and trade him back to Minnesota for Al Jefferson.

This offseason is frightening me. That is why this series means so much to me and it should to you.

1.) KG is untradeable at this point. Too much guaranteed money to a declining player with a new CBA looming

2.) WHY would the Bulls trade Noah for Perk? No really, WHY?!

3.) No way DA trades for Hedo - far too much contract for a player that likes to call in sick to work and go out drinking the same day.

-----------

Point blank: Ray is not going to be resigned in Boston for more than 2 years. I don't see DA offering anything extending beyond KG and Sheed's contract, unless the 3rd year is a team option.

[GranTur]

Ray is getting 2 years at $18 million and a 3rd year player option for another $7 million.

Book it.

[Fafnir]

That is why it is so darn critical we win this series this week. This is glories last shot....

Next year we might get someone like Hedo Turkoglu to replace Ray Allen.

Knowing Danny Ainge's history of trading out players, I would have to say Ray Allen has a better than 50-50 chance of representing a new team next year. A lot depends on where Bosh and Lebron end up going. Suppose they end up on the Bulls. Does Ray Allen go there and we end up with ..... Kirk Hinrich? Can we trade Perkins for Noah?

Furthermore  do we say thanks to KG and trade him back to Minnesota for Al Jefferson.

This offseason is frightening me. That is why this series means so much to me and it should to you.

Please clarify this erroneous statement about trading out players.  He got rid of 1 fat overrated scrub during his tenure.

This series is big because it's the finals but, it won't be the last finals with this group.

I'm not so sure we'll be able to put together another healthy post season with this core.

Timing is everything with a veteran team like this, and KG/Ray/PP all are going to decline some next year.

[Jon]

No.  Ray's only useful to contenders and most contenders can't afford him.  There's talk about Miami getting him, but Miami can't afford Wade, Ray, and another superstar, and without another superstar, Ray's not enough to make them a contender.  And if that's the case, why spend big money on a guy who is going to deteriorate? 

For everyone else, why would you want to spend big money on an aging player who isn't going to make you a contender?  Sure, he might be a good locker room presence, but who cares if that's the case if he'll be gone by the time they actually contend? 

Overall I only see him getting midlevel offers.  Maybe some team who misses out on the Big FAs will offer him a big one year deal, but that'll be it, because they won't want to lock up money in him and prevent themselves from being players the following year. 

[SCBirdman]

3 years- $30 mill as follows:

2010-11- $13 mill

2011-12- $10 mill

2012-13- $7 mill

[RJ87]

3 years- $30 mill as follows:

2010-11- $13 mill

2011-12- $10 mill

2012-13- $7 mill

Add a team option to that 3rd year, and that's the mostly likely deal I can see offered to him.

[Ohio Celtics Fan]

Ray must be brought back at all costs. No discussion needed.