Tim Donaghy's Scouting Report for Game 3 of the NBA Finals

[rondohondo]

He was just on Dennis and Callahan on WEEI


- Said to watch for fouls being called on the big men setting screens for Ray

- Said that Ray and Fisher will be called tight early

- Said to look for this thing to go back to LA with the Fakers winning at least 1 in boston



According to Dennis and Callahan, Donaghy has been pretty much spot on with his perdictions so far in these playoffs.

[ssspence]

what kind of prediction is that? anyone could predict these things...

[Drucci]

what kind of prediction is that? anyone could predict these things...

Yeah, the scary part is that if you have watched the first two games of the Finals you could predict the same things because you know how NBA officials work.

Did he predict a winner for this game?

[FallGuy]

what kind of prediction is that? anyone could predict these things...

Yeah, I agree. He's not saying anything impressive here.

[LB3533]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

[ssspence]

what kind of prediction is that? anyone could predict these things...

Yeah, the scary part is that if you have watched the first two games of the Finals you could predict the same things because you know how NBA officials work.

Did he predict a winner for this game?

great point drucci. it's less about donaghy to me, and more about the fact that the nba's reactionary approach to officitating has become predictable and laughable. who is reffing game 3? you can bet it's guys who look to insert themselves more (read: crawford).

[ssspence]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

be serious.... if the game 2 officials called a few phantom fouls on ray ray early like they did in game 1, who wins game 2? nba officials have a greater influence on their game than any in sports -- end of story.

[LB3533]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

be serious.... if the game 2 officials called a few phantom fouls on ray ray early like they did in game 1, who wins game 2? nba officials have a greater influence on their game than any in sports -- end of story.

NBA officials do have the most influence of any major sport.

But what I was referring to was the notion that the refs can will the Lakers to win at least 1 game in Boston.

If the Celtics blow out the Lakers in each of the 3 games here in Boston, no amount of reffing can save the Lakers.

As unrealistic as my hoping we can blow out the Lakers in 3 straight games...I am just going to side on the positive side for now LOL!!

Again, I am still waiting for a game where all our horses are sprinting the track at full steam within these NBA Finals.

[FLCeltsFan]

Donaghy's whole point is how predictable the officiating is.  That if you know the refs and you watch how the league does things it's easy to predict exactly how the game will be called.  Add into that knowing the memos sent out from the league (call moving pics, watch x player for palming, watch x player for flopping, etc) and you know pretty much how the game will go.  Officials do influence games. Sometimes they don't get the desired outcome because a team won't let them get into their heads and just plays so well that they overcome big foul disparities.  But, they do influence games.  And that has been Donaghy's point all along. 

[Greenbean]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

be serious.... if the game 2 officials called a few phantom fouls on ray ray early like they did in game 1, who wins game 2? nba officials have a greater influence on their game than any in sports -- end of story.

NBA officials do have the most influence of any major sport.

But what I was referring to was the notion that the refs can will the Lakers to win at least 1 game in Boston.

If the Celtics blow out the Lakers in each of the 3 games here in Boston, no amount of reffing can save the Lakers.

As unrealistic as my hoping we can blow out the Lakers in 3 straight games...I am just going to side on the positive side for now LOL!!

Again, I am still waiting for a game where all our horses are sprinting the track at full steam within these NBA Finals.

A few weeks ago I would have completely agreed with you. However after talking with one of my close friends who happens to have a gambling problem, he insists that it is football for the simple fact that they can call holding on literally every snap.

I conceded the point and when you couple that with the ambiguity of pass interference, the refs can absolutely affect the reults of football games directly.

NBA refs have more of an impact on pace and the brand of basketball that gets played and less on the result. It is more indirect IMO.

Either way it is a great debate.

[Brendan]

They'll look to call the Ray Allen screens because they'll be looking for it. Additionally I think they will let the Boston bigs get away with a bit more underneath - and call it a bit tighter when Boston is taking it to the bucket. Kobe will be foul free with some late calls that don't matter to make it look good.

Pierce and Rondo need to go to the bucket and create contact. Ray Allen too. Force the bigs from LAL to get tentative, and then go back to the 3pters.

Also keep in mind the refs and league see the press predicting what will happen - at some point that has the Princess Bride effect "but if I know, that you know, that I know"...

[FallGuy]

Donaghy's whole point is how predictable the officiating is.  That if you know the refs and you watch how the league does things it's easy to predict exactly how the game will be called.  Add into that knowing the memos sent out from the league (call moving pics, watch x player for palming, watch x player for flopping, etc) and you know pretty much how the game will go.  Officials do influence games. Sometimes they don't get the desired outcome because a team won't let them get into their heads and just plays so well that they overcome big foul disparities.  But, they do influence games.  And that has been Donaghy's point all along. 

Don't agree with Donaghy. The phrase "desired outcome" opens up a huge can of worms, for which there is only the most circumstantial of evidence.

[indeedproceed]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

be serious.... if the game 2 officials called a few phantom fouls on ray ray early like they did in game 1, who wins game 2? nba officials have a greater influence on their game than any in sports -- end of story.

NBA officials do have the most influence of any major sport.

But what I was referring to was the notion that the refs can will the Lakers to win at least 1 game in Boston.

If the Celtics blow out the Lakers in each of the 3 games here in Boston, no amount of reffing can save the Lakers.

As unrealistic as my hoping we can blow out the Lakers in 3 straight games...I am just going to side on the positive side for now LOL!!

Again, I am still waiting for a game where all our horses are sprinting the track at full steam within these NBA Finals.

I used to mock you "watchout for the officials" people. I used to say "You cannot lose a game because of officials"...and I used to believe that.

There has been simply been no real continuity in this series..and its not even about superstar calls anymore or favoring one team (although if anyone wants to give me a case as to the Celtics being favored here, I will probably die from the laughter.)..it's more like...I dunno. A trap?

It's like when you're a kid and you're playing a game you made up with other kids...for a while the rules are not fair because only one side actually understands how the game is supposed to go. Tonight whoever figures out how the refs are calling the shinanigans and stays on the floor (whether it is Ray Allen, Lamar Odom, Kobe, KG, or  *gasp* Rondo...all have been forced to sit games these playoffs) will have a huge advantage. Similarly whichever team has a major contributor rack up early foul trouble will be that much more screwed.

[ssspence]

Donaghy's whole point is how predictable the officiating is.  That if you know the refs and you watch how the league does things it's easy to predict exactly how the game will be called.  Add into that knowing the memos sent out from the league (call moving pics, watch x player for palming, watch x player for flopping, etc) and you know pretty much how the game will go.  Officials do influence games. Sometimes they don't get the desired outcome because a team won't let them get into their heads and just plays so well that they overcome big foul disparities.  But, they do influence games.  And that has been Donaghy's point all along. 

sure -- well said. they're not told "let team x win", they're incluenced thru directives -- which in theory are rules-based and therefore not cooked -- that result in entirely subjective calls.

[celticsclay]

Refs can only do so much to influence the game.

If our Big 4 show up with guns blazing for Games 3-5...it won't matter how many calls the Lakers get.

be serious.... if the game 2 officials called a few phantom fouls on ray ray early like they did in game 1, who wins game 2? nba officials have a greater influence on their game than any in sports -- end of story.

NBA officials do have the most influence of any major sport.

But what I was referring to was the notion that the refs can will the Lakers to win at least 1 game in Boston.

If the Celtics blow out the Lakers in each of the 3 games here in Boston, no amount of reffing can save the Lakers.

As unrealistic as my hoping we can blow out the Lakers in 3 straight games...I am just going to side on the positive side for now LOL!!

Again, I am still waiting for a game where all our horses are sprinting the track at full steam within these NBA Finals.

I wonder how much the ref announcement effects the vegas line. Have any gamblers out there been following this?