Author Topic: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...  (Read 9207 times)

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Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #45 on: May 28, 2010, 02:35:37 PM »

Offline SalmonAndMashedPotatoes

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please see the 60 minute story

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2009/12/tim-donaghy-interview-on-60-minutes-video/

when TD said he never personally influenced a game, i said no way. but when the fbi investigated him and came to the same conclusion, i tend to believe them.


donaghy went to jail for taking money from gamblers in exchange for inside information. the refs and the assignments in the nba are so predictable, he was able to predict 85% winners just based on his inside knowledge of the game, the refs, and who favors who.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/2008-07-29-donaghy-sentence_N.htm

like canseco, he is no saint, far from it. but one of the problems with the way the media has handled the story (kid gloves because stern plays puppet master with them) is that people think he bet on games, or he rigged games. he did bet on games, but there is no evidence, and as far as I know not  even allegations, that he himself rigged games.


I don't have time to watch the whole 60 minutes story.  Is somebody from the FBI on record saying that he never influenced games, or is that Donaghy's self-serving claim?

The charges filed against Donaghy certainly don't clear him of influencing games, and since it's a crime to file a false complaint against somebody, I'd be willing to bet that the FBI had more evidence than Donaghy is now claiming.

Of course, at one point Pete Rose claimed that he never bet on baseball, too.  When Donaghy is running low on money in the future, he'll write another book talking about the games he personally influenced.  Right now, though, he's happy to pretend that he was the one honest official in a den of thieves, despite being the only one to serve prison time (for, again, his ties to organized crime.)

EDIT:  And, as looseball says above, I'm sure that if the FBI is keeping quiet about this stuff, it's out of deference to the NBA (who worked closely with the FBI in the investigation).  It wouldn't shock me at all if part of the NBA's agreement to let the FBI monitor Donaghy included a "keep hush" provision.

I'm surprised you've got this so wrong, Roy.

The FBI could never prove Donaghy fixed or rigged games--and they looked hard for it, and so did the NBA in it's investigation.  But they could never prove it. 

But you're not alone in your ignorance of this case--everyone who puts up strawman arguments against Donaghy does it by confusing 'rigging' with 'influencing'.  All Donaghy has ever claimed is that the NBA influences series in order to extend them and make more profit.  Donaghy was a party to the way the NBA 'influences' it's officials, in the form of pre-game meetings which emphasize this or that rule infraction, but what made him special (and a criminal as well) is that he figured out the motive behind such 'influence'--to help extend playoff series--and then used that formula to make winning bets 80-90 % of the time.

The beauty of the NBA's influence is that they maintain plausible deniability because everything they 'emphasize' is already in the rules books and it will be almost impossible to prove what their motive truly is.  But by looking at the pattern of emphasis (of which Donaghy was a party to as a ref), TD able to figure out the NBA's motive and make a profit off it.  You cannot deny that.

Let's remember one more thing: there's a HUGE difference between rigging and influencing.  In a rigged game, the outcome is decided; in an unduly influenced game, the outcome is still up in the air.  Players--even when officials are influencing the game--still have more overall control in the game's outcome because they're the ones passing, shooting, and dribbling.  So, when people try to discredit Donaghy by saying he predicted the Cavs would beat the Cs, remember that Donaghy was only saying that the league had an interest in using their officials in help influence the outcome of that series in favor of Cleveland.  He didn't say it was rigged in their favor--the players still have to make enough winning plays to win...and the Cavs couldn't do that, even with the help of influence.
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Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #46 on: May 28, 2010, 02:41:41 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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please see the 60 minute story

http://thehoopdoctors.com/online2/2009/12/tim-donaghy-interview-on-60-minutes-video/

when TD said he never personally influenced a game, i said no way. but when the fbi investigated him and came to the same conclusion, i tend to believe them.


donaghy went to jail for taking money from gamblers in exchange for inside information. the refs and the assignments in the nba are so predictable, he was able to predict 85% winners just based on his inside knowledge of the game, the refs, and who favors who.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/basketball/nba/2008-07-29-donaghy-sentence_N.htm

like canseco, he is no saint, far from it. but one of the problems with the way the media has handled the story (kid gloves because stern plays puppet master with them) is that people think he bet on games, or he rigged games. he did bet on games, but there is no evidence, and as far as I know not  even allegations, that he himself rigged games.


I don't have time to watch the whole 60 minutes story.  Is somebody from the FBI on record saying that he never influenced games, or is that Donaghy's self-serving claim?

The charges filed against Donaghy certainly don't clear him of influencing games, and since it's a crime to file a false complaint against somebody, I'd be willing to bet that the FBI had more evidence than Donaghy is now claiming.

Of course, at one point Pete Rose claimed that he never bet on baseball, too.  When Donaghy is running low on money in the future, he'll write another book talking about the games he personally influenced.  Right now, though, he's happy to pretend that he was the one honest official in a den of thieves, despite being the only one to serve prison time (for, again, his ties to organized crime.)

EDIT:  And, as looseball says above, I'm sure that if the FBI is keeping quiet about this stuff, it's out of deference to the NBA (who worked closely with the FBI in the investigation).  It wouldn't shock me at all if part of the NBA's agreement to let the FBI monitor Donaghy included a "keep hush" provision.

I'm surprised you've got this so wrong, Roy.

The FBI could never prove Donaghy fixed or rigged games--and they looked hard for it, and so did the NBA in it's investigation.  But they could never prove it.  

But you're not alone in your ignorance of this case--everyone who puts up strawman arguments against Donaghy does it by confusing 'rigging' with 'influencing'.  All Donaghy has ever claimed is that the NBA influences series in order to extend them and make more profit.  Donaghy was a party to the way the NBA 'influences' it's officials, in the form of pre-game meetings which emphasize this or that rule infraction, but what made him special (and a criminal as well) is that he figured out the motive behind such 'influence'--to help extend playoff series--and then used that formula to make winning bets 80-90 % of the time.

The beauty of the NBA's influence is that they maintain plausible deniability because everything they 'emphasize' is already in the rules books and it will be almost impossible to prove what their motive truly is.  But by looking at the pattern of emphasis (of which Donaghy was a party to as a ref), TD able to figure out the NBA's motive and make a profit off it.  You cannot deny that.

Let's remember one more thing: there's a HUGE difference between rigging and influencing.  In a rigged game, the outcome is decided; in an unduly influenced game, the outcome is still up in the air.  Players--even when officials are influencing the game--still have more overall control in the game's outcome because they're the ones passing, shooting, and dribbling.  So, when people try to discredit Donaghy by saying he predicted the Cavs would beat the Cs, remember that Donaghy was only saying that the league had an interest in using their officials in help influence the outcome of that series in favor of Cleveland.  He didn't say it was rigged in their favor--the players still have to make enough winning plays to win...and the Cavs couldn't do that, even with the help of influence.


Out of curiosity, how do you know what the FBI could or could not prove?  Donaghy plead guilty, as I recall, as part of a plea.

They certainly *charged* that his "objectivity was compromised" and that he influenced games.  I suppose they could have charged something that they had no evidence of, but since that's the only public statement that we have from the FBI on the matter (as far as I know), then I'm reluctant to say that the FBI had no proof.

I mean, other than Donaghy's own statements, does anybody have a link to a credible source suggesting that Donaghy didn't fix games?  If I'm wrong here, I'll happily admit it.  (And no, I wouldn't consider the NBA a credible source, since they have a vested interest in suggesting that their playoff games were clean.)

I think there's a big difference between what Donaghy's saying -- that the FBI concluded that he never fixed games -- and a lack of proof that he fixed games, due to the subjective nature of the NBA.  I mean, you could call a foul on literally every play of every game, or you could swallow your whistle and "let them play" and it would be perfectly normal, too.  If Donaghy selectively chose his whistles to influence matchups, how would you ever prove that outside of an admission?
« Last Edit: May 28, 2010, 02:51:50 PM by Roy Hobbs »

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Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2010, 03:00:53 PM »

Offline SalmonAndMashedPotatoes

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Out of curiosity, how do you know what the FBI could or could not prove?  Donaghy plead guilty, as I recall, as part of a plea.

They certainly *charged* that his "objectivity was compromised" and that he influenced games.  I suppose they could have charged something that they had no evidence of, but since that's the only public statement that we have from the FBI on the matter (as far as I know), then I'm reluctant to say that the FBI had no proof.

I mean, other than Donaghy's own statements, does anybody have a link to a credible source suggesting that Donaghy didn't fix games?  If I'm wrong here, I'll happily admit it.  (And no, I wouldn't consider the NBA a credible source, since they have a vested interest in suggesting that their playoff games were clean.)

Watch the 60 Minutes video at about the 3:30 mark and get back to me.  The FBI agent in charge of the case says, in reference to whether TD fixed games, "we never saw that."  And the NBA's investigation concluded: "It seems plausible to us that Donaghy may not have manipulated games."


I think there's a big difference between what Donaghy's saying -- that the FBI concluded that he never fixed games -- and a lack of proof that he fixed games, due to the subjective nature of the NBA.  I mean, you could call a foul on literally every play of every game, or you could swallow your whistle and "let them play" and it would be perfectly normal, too.  If Donaghy selectively chose his whistles to influence matchups, how would you ever prove that outside of an admission?

Yeah, well, apply that standard to Donaghy's claim and ask yourself the same question, "If the NBA selectively chooses their officials to influence matchups, how could you ever prove that outside of an admission?"  That's the beauty of the NBA game-influencing, series-extending scheme--they'll always have plausible deniability.

The reason I believe Donaghy is simple: he got results, results you can't get by being a really really good gambler.  And how did he get those results?  By figuring out the NBA's pattern of giving instructions and making ref assignments that served to extend playoff series.

Folly. Persist.

Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #48 on: May 28, 2010, 03:02:34 PM »

Offline kevbo

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Roy, I gotcha. Thanks for clarifying what you meant. Agreed that the FBI left it more vague about "influencing," at least from memory. Also agreed 100% that the NBA refuses to adequately acknowledge it has officiating problems, which is really my main issue. Sometimes I enjoy the nefarious speculation, othertimes it depresses me. But what has made it hard for me to watch basketball is the game to game inconsistency. In 2008, the magical year, I could barely enjoy the games by the playoffs because I had League pass, watched games for a ton of teams all season long, and the reffing was just all over the map. Some is attributable to different style of play, some human error, but the inconsistency from end to end, quarter to quarter got really frustrating. I had/have a hard time letting it go. And like you, the failure to creatively address it by the NBA is what gets my goat.

W/R/T to Donaghy, one thing I found after a quick news archive search about game fixing is this Philidelphia newspaper article:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/79035692.html#axzz0pFgU62i6

The basic thrust is the FBI didn't look to closely at it, which kinda leaves vague everything else we've been discussing.

Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #49 on: May 28, 2010, 03:10:41 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Roy, I gotcha. Thanks for clarifying what you meant. Agreed that the FBI left it more vague about "influencing," at least from memory. Also agreed 100% that the NBA refuses to adequately acknowledge it has officiating problems, which is really my main issue. Sometimes I enjoy the nefarious speculation, othertimes it depresses me. But what has made it hard for me to watch basketball is the game to game inconsistency. In 2008, the magical year, I could barely enjoy the games by the playoffs because I had League pass, watched games for a ton of teams all season long, and the reffing was just all over the map. Some is attributable to different style of play, some human error, but the inconsistency from end to end, quarter to quarter got really frustrating. I had/have a hard time letting it go. And like you, the failure to creatively address it by the NBA is what gets my goat.

W/R/T to Donaghy, one thing I found after a quick news archive search about game fixing is this Philidelphia newspaper article:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/sixers/79035692.html#axzz0pFgU62i6

The basic thrust is the FBI didn't look to closely at it, which kinda leaves vague everything else we've been discussing.

Interesting.  According to that article:

Quote
You would think from some of the interviews that Donaghy was right 80 percent of the time on his bets. Well, Griffin wants to know, which bets?

[Co-conspirator] Battista told [author] Griffin that Donaghy was right 80 percent of the time on the games he officiated, but was so bad on the games he did not officiate that Battista stopped betting on them.


If that's true, then was Donaghy just really good at knowing the system, or was he good at influencing outcomes?

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Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #50 on: May 28, 2010, 03:12:57 PM »

Offline Mike-Dub

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Half of the big show will be set tonight.  Stern got the Lakers one game away from a meeting with the Celtics.

He wants the ratings, and a Celtics / Lakers series will make him more $$$ than a Suns / Magic series.  That's how David rolls (which is why Perk got is tech rescinded).

Donaghy has an inside track on this... :)

The NBA...Where Fixed Happens.

I want those voiceover commercials (where they dub them to the music) to have one with the referees in their conference room before the game.  That would be so revealing...

Cavs Lakers didn't happen last year and that would have made way more money than Magic Lakers so I don't buy your theory.

It was a joke...  I do NOT believe the NBA fixes a specific game.  But I DO believe the referees can impact a series and what a dreadful thing to hear that, behind closed doors, they are provided ultimatums by the league to do so.  But ultimately it's up to a team to make shots and wise decisions.  The truth is probably somewhere in the middle...

Or it could be that the refs are human and they make mistakes and because they are human have biases with out even realizing it. 

Referees are human to and I believe the NBA is the hardest league to call.  Still the refs have to play better and they did blow game 5.
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Re: Tim Donaghy on tonights game...
« Reply #51 on: May 28, 2010, 03:27:06 PM »

Offline kevbo

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Interesting.  According to that article:

Quote
You would think from some of the interviews that Donaghy was right 80 percent of the time on his bets. Well, Griffin wants to know, which bets?

[Co-conspirator] Battista told [author] Griffin that Donaghy was right 80 percent of the time on the games he officiated, but was so bad on the games he did not officiate that Battista stopped betting on them.


If that's true, then was Donaghy just really good at knowing the system, or was he good at influencing outcomes?

Yeah, that quote seems like it winks at Donaghy game fixing. I think it highly skeptical that he didn't fix games. But the article also paints it like the FBI wasn't trying to bark up that tree too much, which is also interesting. I am still left wondering why? Like so many things in life/government, very little clarity or easy transparency. Maybe someone I do find credible will write about Donaghy et all someday.