Author Topic: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010  (Read 3157 times)

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The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« on: May 24, 2010, 02:33:53 PM »

Offline drza44

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We are 14 games into the 2010 postseason.  The 2009 postseason also lasted exactly 14 games.  Thus, this seems like a good time to take a look at what the difference has been between the two teams.  (Fair warning, my conclusions won't be earth-shattering...in fact they're pretty obvious once you get there, but it was the magnitude of the difference that prompted me to make this post).

The difference can't really be tracked in individual stats.  Pierce has been the leading scorer through 14 games both years, but he's produced similar/slightly less than last year:

'09 Pierce: 21 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.1 apg, 55% TS, 16.1 PER
'10 Pierce: 17.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 55% TS, 14.3 PER

Pierce is shooting a bit less this postseason, but otherwise he is doing everything else at almost exactly the same rate.  So, let's look at Mr. Shuttlesworth:

'09 Allen: 18.3 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.6 apg, 55 % TS, 14.2 PER
'10 Allen: 16.7 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, 60% TS, 14.7 PER

Like Pierce, Allen has produced at almost the same level overall.  He also is shooting a bit less, but unlike Pierce he is scoring much more efficiently.  More on that later.  For now, let's look at the power forwards:

'09 Baby: 15.8 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.8 apg, 54% TS, 15.2 PER
'10 KG: 15.7 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 53% TS, 18.1 PER

In the boxscores, that really isn't that big of a difference.  KG has filled the boxes a little more, but the shooting/scoring is relatively equal and those numbers don't show sufficient difference for the obvious improvement.  It must be from Rondo, then, right?  Wrong.

'09 Rondo: 16.9 ppg, 9.7 rpg, 9.8 apg, 47% TS, 19.7 PER
'10 Rondo: 17.3 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 10.7 apg, 54% TS, 19.8 PER

Rondo has certainly scored more efficiently but on the other hand hasn't crashed the boards as hard.  I can see a net gain, but certainly not enough to explain the huge jump in the C's play.  So, what gives?

Well, to start with, let's put those numbers into the context of the offense as a whole.  First and foremost, the offensive reigns have clearly passed from Pierce to Rondo.  Last season in the playoffs Pierce was the leader of the offense, and thus the unit was more about individual excellence/1-on-1 abilities.  With Rondo in charge, the offense is more equal-opportunity and takes more advantage of the strengths of the unit as a whole. 

The second big offensive difference is that with Garnett in there instead of Baby, opponents are having to spend a lot more focus on stopping him which opens things up for everyone else.  While Baby was getting his numbers because the opponents dared him to score while hedging more onto everyone else, KG is getting his numbers while pulling in more defensive attention and giving his teammates more room to operate.

The end result of these two subtle offensive changes is more efficient scoring on the whole among the team-leaders and, in game action, a unit that opponents can no longer effectively plan against.  In other words, last year's Celtics offense was more like the '10 Magic...good individual talent, but could be planned for and taken out.  This year, on the other hand...our offense has become a strength.  The 2010 postseason Celtics have one of the best offenses in the NBA.

But that still isn't why they're dominating this year.

No, for that answer, all you have to do is look at the defense.  And just for fun, we'll put the '08 defense up there as wwell.

'09 Celtics Defense: 102 ppg, 45% FG, 20 apg, 14 TOs

'10 Celtics Defense: 90 ppg, 43% FG, 17 apg, 17 TOs

'08 Celtics Defense: 89 ppg, 43% FG, 19 apg, 14 TOs

The reason that the Celtics won the title in '08, are competing strongly for another one in '10, and bowed out in '09 is all on the defensive side of the ball.  Many list the 2008 defense as among the best units of all-time...well, 2 years (and some health) later, that unit lives and breathes again.  These Celtics are a defensive juggernaut, again.  And if all goes well, it will be the defense that brings #18 home in a few weeks.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2010, 02:35:57 PM »

Offline housecall

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the difference in my opinion in 2009&2010 playoffs is one name KG.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2010, 02:37:05 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's the difference:


All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2010, 02:40:41 PM »

Offline Mr October

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the difference in my opinion in 2009&2010 playoffs is one name KG.

Absolutely.

And sprinkle the improved Rondo in there as well. I thought that Rondo would struggle in this series like he did last year, but they guys is impacting everything with his hustle, passing and leadership.

He is truly a stud on both ends of the court.

And lastly, don't forget Sheed. This guy is delivering.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2010, 02:42:40 PM »

Offline housecall

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Since a picture is worth a thousand words, here's the difference:


that picture is worth a thousand TP's but will you settle for one?...TP

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2010, 02:44:20 PM »

Offline housecall

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the difference in my opinion in 2009&2010 playoffs is one name KG.

Absolutely.

And sprinkle the improved Rondo in there as well. I thought that Rondo would struggle in this series like he did last year, but they guys is impacting everything with his hustle, passing and leadership.

He is truly a stud on both ends of the court.

And lastly, don't forget Sheed. This guy is delivering.
TP..you are correct also.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2010, 03:02:47 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2010, 03:04:43 PM »

Offline j804

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.


TP Roy interesting indeed, cant say im surprised our defense is something special this year.
"7ft PG. Rondo leaves and GUESS WHAT? We got a BIGGER point guard!"-Tommy on Olynyk


Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2010, 03:25:19 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.

This should boil down to fewer free throws allowed this year than 08, right? 

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2010, 03:27:43 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.

  Force more turnovers, give up fewer foul shots (per shot taken) and better defensive rebounding this year.

  By the way, not that last year's team was a defensive juggernaut or anything, but while they gave up 102 a game they only gave up 97 a game in regulation. All those overtimes hurt their points against average.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2010, 03:34:43 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.

This should boil down to fewer free throws allowed this year than 08, right? 

2010:  .281 FTA/FGA, .163 turnover percentage (opponent's)
2009:  .265 FTA/FGA, .133 turnover percentage (opponent's)
2008:  .313 FTA/FGA, .144 turnover percentage (opponent's)

It seems to be a factor of allowing fewer free throws combined with forcing more turnovers.

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2010, 03:35:53 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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  By the way, not that last year's team was a defensive juggernaut or anything, but while they gave up 102 a game they only gave up 97 a game in regulation. All those overtimes hurt their points against average.

That's why it makes more sense to look at points allowed per possession, rather than per game.  It regulates for things like that (as well as pace, of course).

All the negativity in this town sucks. It sucks, and it stinks, and it sucks. - Rick Pitino

Portland CrotoNats:  2009 CB Draft Champions

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2010, 03:38:27 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Don't forget how blowouts we've been having this year factor into things. We put our gas off the pedal towards the end of games which allows team to score up to a respectable number AND improve their fg% a bit.

Our defense has been exceptionally dominant when it has mattered.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2010, 04:41:13 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Playoff defensive stats:

2008: .463 eFG% allowed, 103.3 points allowed per 100 possessions

2009: .493 eFG% allowed, 106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions   

2010: .472 eFG% allowed, 98.6 points allowed per 100 possessions

Interestingly enough, even though opponents are shooting a slightly higher efficiency against us, we're allowing quite a bit fewer points per 100 possessions.  In other words, our defense is actually statistically better now than it was in the 2008 playoffs.

This should boil down to fewer free throws allowed this year than 08, right? 

2010:  .281 FTA/FGA, .163 turnover percentage (opponent's)
2009:  .265 FTA/FGA, .133 turnover percentage (opponent's)
2008:  .313 FTA/FGA, .144 turnover percentage (opponent's)

It seems to be a factor of allowing fewer free throws combined with forcing more turnovers.

  I also think that we're giving up fewer offensive rebounds this year. I think that if you give up an offensive rebound it's a continuation of the same possession as opposed to a new possession, so cutting down on second chances allowed would improve our defensive rating.

Re: The Difference Between 2009 and 2010
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2010, 04:46:13 PM »

Offline LB3533

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Part of me also feels that our offense could be even better this year than what actually has transpired.

I mean we are only averaging a little over 93 ppg on only 45.7% FG shooting against Orlando.

We really are winning because of our defense. I mean, the playoffs this year would be no contest if we were clicking on offense as we are clicking on defense.