If you can rationally respond to this and prove me wrong then please do (I always love to debate).
Lebron is staying with the Cavs.
Everyone knows the new CBA that will be put into effect is going to lower salaries (most likely significantly) going forward. Lebron is in position to take a max contract for 6 years that would pay him 30 million more than any other team could. He will take a max year contract (as compared to the 3 year he usually does) because of the lower salary the new CBA will most likely provide. He is going to sign the contract the Cavs can offer due to financial benefit it will provide.
I still contend that the opportunities for making money beyond his NBA salary will be greater if he signs with a New York-based team. Enough to recoup the difference a 6th year comprises? Quite possibly.
What Cavs fans have to hope for is that LeBron values loyalty more than money.
Also, Lebron is extremely concerned about his image. Leaving the Cavs after his weak effort in the playoffs will ruin his reputation. It will make him look like he quit on his team and his home town. It would add justification to the rumors that he made up his elbow injury to facilitate his move from the Cavs. This would really tarnish his reputation and marketability which is not what Lebron is about.
People were pointing at plenty of other scapegoats: Mike Brown, Antawn Jamison, Mo Williams, even Danny Ferry. And Elbowgate, to me, did serve as a convenient, built-in excuse for a sub-par performance for LeBron: "He carried the team with one arm behind his back."
I don't think he'd be branded forever as a turncoat, not nationwide, and especially not if he were to win a title somewhere else.
Finally, to anyone who thinks the Cavs are going to sign and trade Lebron, that just isn't going to happen. The Cavs will not give him the best of both worlds. If Lebron wants to leave he is going to have to leave money on the table and turn his back on the team. The Cavs organization will not aid his departure in any way through a sign and trade.
I do see your logic here, MMac. I don't think Gilbert wants to go down in history as the owner who traded LeBron. There's no way to get fair value for him anyways.
For all of this, I do see a good chance of LeBron returning. With the exception of Shaq and Z, the supporting cast of a team that won 60+ game is on contract and will return. The front office has some expiring contracts to play with, and a new coach could infuse the roster with a new mindset and personality.