Hollinger

[Greenbean]

I really respect Hollinger and I defnintely think that statistics have aplace in basketball. I like his PER, I also like his power rankings. However there are certain times when his reliance on stastics clearly affect his ability to be objective. He becomes a fan of the team that his stats say are the best and his analysis takes a plunge as a result. For example read this article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=celticsmagicgame1-100516

He maes a short mention of the Celtics defense but quickly reverts back to Orlando playing bad rather than the Celtics playing well.

This guy picked Orlando in 5 games. 5!

I like to read him because the theory of his analysis should be pure, unbiased, writing.

However, the more I read the guy I realize that at times, he tries to twist the games results to fit what his statistics are telling him. And that is how you embarass yourself in the national media.

[Prof. Clutch]

I really respect Hollinger and I defnintely think that statistics have aplace in basketball. I like his PER, I also like his power rankings. However there are certain times when his reliance on stastics clearly affect his ability to be objective. He becomes a fan of the team that his stats say are the best and his analysis takes a plunge as a result. For example read this article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=celticsmagicgame1-100516

He maes a short mention of the Celtics defense but quickly reverts back to Orlando playing bad rather than the Celtics playing well.

This guy picked Orlando in 5 games. 5!

I like to read him because the theory of his analysis should be pure, unbiased, writing.

However, the more I read the guy I realize that at times, he tries to twist the games results to fit what his statistics are telling him. And that is how you embarass yourself in the national media.

Hollinger has used his statistics to repeatedly predict the C's impending doom throughout the post season.  He's been flat out wrong so far...

[Fan from VT]

I'll defend him a little:

1. If not previously biased, there was no real reason to think Boston would win the series:

Orlando has homecourt
Orlando has a better regular season record
Orland has been hotter
Orlando's been better in the playoffs (perhaps...in retrospect their best player is Dwight (center) and they haven't played against a good center yet.
Orlando just set the record for point differential through 2 rounds. 8-0 with mostly lopsided blowouts.


2. About his article, this was his assignment. From his Twitter page:

johnhollinger
 
Every time at this year readers think I'm playing favorites. Just to clarify: we each write one team's "side." I had Orl, Sheridan had Bos

[Prof. Clutch]

I posted this yesterday in another thread, but I think that these are the stats that matter the most:

During the regular season the Celtics allowed an average of 95.6 points per game on .451 fg%

Celtics as a team so far these playoffs are holding opposing teams to an average of 84.25 points per game on 43.95% fg shooting.

[Greenbean]

I'll defend him a little:

1. If not previously biased, there was no real reason to think Boston would win the series:

Orlando has homecourt
Orlando has a better regular season record
Orland has been hotter
Orlando's been better in the playoffs (perhaps...in retrospect their best player is Dwight (center) and they haven't played against a good center yet.
Orlando just set the record for point differential through 2 rounds. 8-0 with mostly lopsided blowouts.


2. About his article, this was his assignment. From his Twitter page:

johnhollinger
 
Every time at this year readers think I'm playing favorites. Just to clarify: we each write one team's "side." I had Orl, Sheridan had Bos

I can definitely see both sides here but the general argument that I am making is that in the process of trying to eliminate all biases in his writing, he sometimes introduces even more bias. Im not sure if that makes sense but it does to me.

And those reasons you listed why he would pick Orlando are flawed IMO. They completely ignore matchups, which is soemthing he usually does as well.

Both teams match up very well. It will come down to which team will execute their game plan more effectively.

What is funny is that in his article, his lean is that the Magic were not ready. They were rusty.

Well I would argue that a championship contender would be ready for game 1 at home. Maybe we are the team with the tougher mental resolve, and the Magic will struggle to execute and stay focused.

[Spilling Green Dye]

Yeah, I saw that article earlier and thought it was a lousy write up.

Instead of utilizing statistics to clarify WHY the Celtics won, or even WHY Orlando lost, he attempts to justify in a non-statistical approach WHY the outcome was different than his initial prediction.  It's one thing to not give the Celtics ample credit, but it's a whole other error to base analysis off of statistics and refuse to revisit statistics when the outcome is different than you expected.  

I'm sure if he looked he could justify the Celtics being superior in that game, but his pride has been put before his method.  I used to like him when he first started out, but have lost more and more respect for him over the past few years.  

[nickagneta]

I thought the article was very good and gave plenty of good analysis of how the Celtics shut the Magic down and credited them as such.

[Roy Hobbs]

Here's the glitch in Hollinger's thinking:  he clearly doesn't think the "switch" exists, and after watching this Celtics team, it's clear that it does.

You can't evaluate this matchup based upon regular season numbers.  If you do, you're a fool at this point.

[xmuscularghandix]

Hollinger is an ass. His predictions are completely based on the fact that we struggled in the regular season. There is no way for his equations to take in the fact that we were just saving ourselves for the post-season.

[Fafnir]

If Hollinger believes the team with HCA has a big advantage he goes in 5, if the road team he goes 6. If its close he'll go 7.

[Greenbean]

Here's the glitch in Hollinger's thinking:  he clearly doesn't think the "switch" exists, and after watching this Celtics team, it's clear that it does.

You can't evaluate this matchup based upon regular season numbers.  If you do, you're a fool at this point.

Exactly! I can just see him behind his screen saying to himself, "Wow the Celtics looked dominant on defense again. But my numbers dont show that! They havent shown this in the last 25% of the games they played. Certainly it has nothing to do with the team coming together at the right time. Impossible! This cant be. THIS CANT BEEEEEE! Quick write an article that gives a soft explanation why the Magic got beaten so badly in the first half."

[fairweatherfan]

Hollinger's pretty much married to his stats at this point.  I don't mind him picking Orlando to win the series - there's more than just advanced statistics in their favor.  But picking them in 5 just shows some mental rigidity with regards to what the numbers say.

What's irritating is that Hollinger doesn't seem to realize that this team:

-is full of veterans, with every rotation player having been on a championship team and multiple contenders (including different teams)

-has a budding young superstar

-is a top defensive team

-had a frustrating end to last season after a title the year before.

-was dominant for the first 1/3rd of the year then underachieved the last 2/3rds.

If you were going to pick a perfect scenario for a team dramatically outperforming its regular season numbers, it'd look a lot like that.  Orlando in the series is a respectable pick; Orlando in 5 is silly.

EDIT: That article is pretty complimentary of Boston's D, though - don't see much to be upset about there.

[Greenbean]

If Hollinger believes the team with HCA has a big advantage he goes in 5, if the road team he goes 6. If its close he'll go 7.

Right so how can an objective analyst think that Orlando has a "big" advantage over the Celtics. Has he seen them play lately. I think he just runs a simulator all day and thinks that is the ACTUAL team.

I dont like to whine about the media but it will be nice to prove this guys numbers wrong. Maybe he will update them since his calculations are pretty simple at this point.

[nickagneta]

Just wondering, how many of you guys read the article?

Hollinger uses almost no stats in his analysis of what happened yesterday and clearly gives credit to Boston:

Of course, there also was the little matter of their opponent. Boston is one of the league's elite defensive teams and historically the Magic have never had an easy time scoring on the Celtics, because Kendrick Perkins doesn't need double-team help to defend Howard. From the opening tip, as Redick and Carter noted, it was clear the Celtics had brought their A-game.

"Defensively in the first half we were terrific," said Boston coach Doc Rivers.

One of the biggest problems for Orlando was that it couldn't make a 3-pointer. The Magic were only 5-of-22, and the normally deadly Rashard Lewis was 0-for-6 -- including a couple of fourth-quarter tries that could have made the final seconds much more interesting.

But part of the reason was that they weren't Orlando's typical shots -- many of them were contested looks rather than the Magic's usual two-passes-around-the-perimeter-to-a-wide-open-weakside-shooter variety. The Celtics particularly cut off the corner 3-pointer, the highest-value shot in the game, limiting Orlando to five attempts and no makes from the corners.

[Fafnir]

If Hollinger believes the team with HCA has a big advantage he goes in 5, if the road team he goes 6. If its close he'll go 7.

Right so how can an objective analyst think that Orlando has a "big" advantage over the Celtics. Has he seen them play lately. I think he just runs a simulator all day and thinks that is the ACTUAL team.

I dont like to whine about the media but it will be nice to prove this guys numbers wrong. Maybe he will update them since his calculations are pretty simple at this point.

He thought that there was no "switch" as Roy says.

I still don't think there really is, the C's are just now healthy and are playing well. I fear their old flaws are going to reappear, especially since we don't have a huge match up advantage to fall back on like we did in the Cleveland series. (whomever Mo Williams/Jamison guarded)

I think you're drinking the kool-aid if you don't see how a reasonable basketball fan would think that Orlando would win. (and if the home team wins they usually close it out at home in 5 or 7)