Could Vince Carter Be a HoFer?

[nickagneta]

Being fair in our discussion of Vinsanity versus th Human Highlight Film's HOF viability during their heydays here is a list of the players each played with

Dominique Wilkins:

Doc Rivers
Kevin Willis
Eddie Johnson
Spud Webb
Tree Rollins
Moses Malone
Cliff Levingston
Randy Wittman

Vince Carter:

Antonio Davis
Morris Peterson
Alvin Williams
Voshon Leonard
Donyell Marshall
Chris Bosh
Jalen Rose

I don't know about you guys but I would much rather go to war and try to win ball games with the guys Dominique played with than those Vince Carter played with when they were in their primes.

[Fafnir]

Nick the link says what the model does:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

It doesn't factor in MVPs, though if you wanted you could just add a feature that changed every former MVP to a 100%.

[nickagneta]

Nick the link says what the model does:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

It doesn't factor in MVPs, though if you wanted you could just add a feature that changed every former MVP to a 100%.

Thanks Faf.

I actually find his math interesting there. And my guess is if he factored in MVPs yeah, nash would be at the top of the list with Kobe, Dirk, Lebron, Shaq et al.

[BballTim]

Being fair in our discussion of Vinsanity versus th Human Highlight Film's HOF viability during their heydays here is a list of the players each played with

Dominique Wilkins:

Doc Rivers
Kevin Willis
Eddie Johnson
Spud Webb
Tree Rollins
Moses Malone
Cliff Levingston
Randy Wittman

Vince Carter:

Antonio Davis
Morris Peterson
Alvin Williams
Voshon Leonard
Donyell Marshall
Chris Bosh
Jalen Rose

I don't know about you guys but I would much rather go to war and try to win ball games with the guys Dominique played with than those Vince Carter played with when they were in their primes.

  You left Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson off of the list.

[nickagneta]

Being fair in our discussion of Vinsanity versus th Human Highlight Film's HOF viability during their heydays here is a list of the players each played with

Dominique Wilkins:

Doc Rivers
Kevin Willis
Eddie Johnson
Spud Webb
Tree Rollins
Moses Malone
Cliff Levingston
Randy Wittman

Vince Carter:

Antonio Davis
Morris Peterson
Alvin Williams
Voshon Leonard
Donyell Marshall
Chris Bosh
Jalen Rose

I don't know about you guys but I would much rather go to war and try to win ball games with the guys Dominique played with than those Vince Carter played with when they were in their primes.

  You left Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson off of the list.

I considered Vince past his "heyday" once he left Toronto

[BballTim]

Being fair in our discussion of Vinsanity versus th Human Highlight Film's HOF viability during their heydays here is a list of the players each played with

Dominique Wilkins:

Doc Rivers
Kevin Willis
Eddie Johnson
Spud Webb
Tree Rollins
Moses Malone
Cliff Levingston
Randy Wittman

Vince Carter:

Antonio Davis
Morris Peterson
Alvin Williams
Voshon Leonard
Donyell Marshall
Chris Bosh
Jalen Rose

I don't know about you guys but I would much rather go to war and try to win ball games with the guys Dominique played with than those Vince Carter played with when they were in their primes.

  You left Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson off of the list.

I considered Vince past his "heyday" once he left Toronto

  His years on the Nets should have been his prime, and his numbers aren't that much worse than those Raptor years. But it says a lot about Vince's career if people think that his "heyday" ended when he was 25 or 26. In terms of HOF potential, that's pretty [dang]ing.

[KungPoweChicken]

Honestly, I haven't read this whole thread, so if someone has said this already, please forgive me. But, Paul Pierce, thus far, playing his whole career for one team is HUGE in my opinion. I know the so-called experts don't factor stuff like that in. But, in my book, there is nothing better and more hall of fame worthy than that.


Furthermore, didn't Vince quit on his team in Toronto? Paul never did that. Pierce also led a pathetic C's team to the eastern conference finals (something Vince couldn't do when he was manning up alone in Canada).



But, on the whole, I think you're right. Their stats are comparable. But the biggest difference is that Pierce won his championship, while he was the captain and still "the man," after years of enduring and toughing it out in Boston, when he could have demanded a trade (Vince style). That's what made Paul's title, as we all know, so sweet. Vince is just hopping ship trying to not be known like his cousin.

[nickagneta]

Being fair in our discussion of Vinsanity versus th Human Highlight Film's HOF viability during their heydays here is a list of the players each played with

Dominique Wilkins:

Doc Rivers
Kevin Willis
Eddie Johnson
Spud Webb
Tree Rollins
Moses Malone
Cliff Levingston
Randy Wittman

Vince Carter:

Antonio Davis
Morris Peterson
Alvin Williams
Voshon Leonard
Donyell Marshall
Chris Bosh
Jalen Rose

I don't know about you guys but I would much rather go to war and try to win ball games with the guys Dominique played with than those Vince Carter played with when they were in their primes.

  You left Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson off of the list.

I considered Vince past his "heyday" once he left Toronto

  His years on the Nets should have been his prime, and his numbers aren't that much worse than those Raptor years. But it says a lot about Vince's career if people think that his "heyday" ended when he was 25 or 26. In terms of HOF potential, that's pretty danging.

I agree. And the reason why I cut his heyday off there is because of his admission of tanking in Toronto to get traded to New Jersey. After that, I could take anything he did as a player into consideration as being in his prime because, and this is just me, if I feel a player may not be giving it his all for some particular reason, he is now on the downside of his career. Having watched him in NJ, there's just no convincing me that he wasn't doing the same thing there for periods of time. And if he was, then I consider him past his peak heyday.

[Tai]

Just off stats, he probably gets in, maybe not as a 1st ballot but eventually; people wanna say if you have to think about it, someone's not a HOFer, but the way I see it, that just means he's not 1st ballot.  I'm sure the voters that be have had to "think" about a HOF nominee before that they eventually voted for.

Truth of the matter is, 20 PPG for 10 straight years (before this one) on at least 40% shooting each year and at least 35% from 3-pt land in all but 2 of those years WITH how popular he is will be hard to turn down completely for eventual HoF status. Like it's been mentioned before, that adds up to roughly 20k career points on pretty decent shooting, and as someone else also pointed out, not many guys with that many career points are left out of the HoF.

Using what I said before, I did have to think about it, I did have to look up those stats, so he's probably not 1st ballot. But, he'll get in, I believe.

[colincb]

So who's a current HoF among active players?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

This is basketball referrence's list based on data mining how the HoF has selected players in the past. I think the list has solid locks until the 12th selection, which happens to be Vince Carter.

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072

12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

Of this list I think Pau Gasol and Nash are shoe ins (international guys), but none of the rest will make it currently. Obviously young guys like Melo/Howard have a lot of time to get there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

The model's assumption is that anyone above .5 should be in and anyone below would be out. It was 96.5% accurate on the pool of players used to test it.



http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

No one with as high a score as VC has not made it. The highest score that isn't in the HOF is Jo Jo White at .82. Just eyeballing the chart, it appears that below .8 becomes more problematical and I'd expect that other factors would weigh in (especially for Nash). VC was certainly a spectacular offensive player, but I think he has a pretty bad reputation because of the way he left Toronto, his perceived selfishness, and his lackadaisical attitude toward defense. My gut says he needs to play well from now on out with ORL to get in because of these negative perceptions despite his offensive accomplishments.

BTW, according to the model, the Big 3 are all locks.

[PosImpos]

So who's a current HoF among active players?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_active.html

This is basketball referrence's list based on data mining how the HoF has selected players in the past. I think the list has solid locks until the 12th selection, which happens to be Vince Carter.

1. Shaquille O'Neal 1.0000
2. Kobe Bryant 0.9999
3. Tim Duncan 0.9998
4. Allen Iverson 0.9977
5. Kevin Garnett 0.9971
6. LeBron James 0.9801
7. Dwyane Wade 0.9758
8. Paul Pierce 0.9535
9. Dirk Nowitzki 0.9105
10. Jason Kidd 0.9073
11. Ray Allen 0.9072

12. Vince Carter 0.8662
13. Tracy McGrady 0.7476
14. Tony Parker 0.5183
15. Grant Hill 0.4794
16. Gilbert Arenas 0.4569
17. Chris Bosh 0.4305
18. Amare Stoudemire 0.4246
19. Carmelo Anthony 0.4078
20. Steve Nash 0.3654
21. Dwight Howard 0.2877
22. Pau Gasol 0.2361
23. Chauncey Billups 0.2162
24. Shawn Marion 0.2111
25. Elton Brand 0.1586
26. Antawn Jamison 0.0861
27. Carlos Boozer 0.0842

Of this list I think Pau Gasol and Nash are shoe ins (international guys), but none of the rest will make it currently. Obviously young guys like Melo/Howard have a lot of time to get there.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/hof_prob.html

The model's assumption is that anyone above .5 should be in and anyone below would be out. It was 96.5% accurate on the pool of players used to test it.



http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/hof_prob_career.html

No one with as high a score as VC has not made it. The highest score that isn't in the HOF is Jo Jo White at .82. Just eyeballing the chart, it appears that below .8 becomes more problematical and I'd expect that other factors would weigh in (especially for Nash). VC was certainly a spectacular offensive player, but I think he has a pretty bad reputation because of the way he left Toronto, his perceived selfishness, and his lackadaisical attitude toward defense. My gut says he needs to play well from now on out with ORL to get in because of these negative perceptions despite his offensive accomplishments.

BTW, according to the model, the Big 3 are all locks.

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

[Fafnir]

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

Both will also have a leg up because they're foreign borne players. Though being primarily NBA players might temper that effect some.

[Edgar]

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

Both will also have a leg up because they're foreign borne players. Though being primarily NBA players might temper that effect some.

i know is nba hof but sabonis deserves in too

[GreenFaith1819]

I would argue Tony Parker gets in, too, because of his contributions to three championship teams including Finals MVP.

I have a feeling Manu will eventually get in as well.

Both will also have a leg up because they're foreign borne players. Though being primarily NBA players might temper that effect some.

i know is nba hof but sabonis deserves in too

Definitely Sabonis - Youtube tells the story.

One of the Best Passing Big Men - ever.

[GreenFaith1819]

Now, obviously this won't happen because the Celtics are just too good (tongue in cheek, tongue in cheek), but here's a hypothetical:

Vince Carter comes up big in the next two rounds and leads his team to an NBA Championship.  He wins Finals MVP.

Does he become a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame?

Actually, I would say yes.  If you look at his career stats, they are very comparable to Paul Pierce's stats.  Indeed, they're practically identical.  The only major difference in their resumes is that Pierce has led his team to a title (although with a lot of help), and Vince hasn't had any significant post-season success.  With a title on his resume, and especially a Finals MVP, I'd say Vince would be considered a future HoFer.  To put it simply, if Pierce is considered a future inductee, under those circumstances Vince would have to be as well.

What do you think?

Under your parameters, I'd say Yes. if ORL beats us, then play LA, first of all they'd better win.

All this being said - Yes Vince Carter would make it into the Hall of Fame. He would be the biggest addition to ORL and to me he would be the one who puts them over the top.

The man has improved his FG% this season, too. He nearly beat us by himself during that Christmas game. Hit some incredible shots.

But unfortunately that may not happen for him - because of Boston.