Feeling the Pulse of the Series: Gut Prediction

[Toine43]

"The importance of Game 5" thread got me thinking about this. Usually I'm terrible with this sort of thing, but so far in these playoffs I feel like I've been anticipating exactly what's going to happen to the Cs, starting with the easy disposal of the Heat, and then after game 1 I was pretty convinced that the Celts would win game 2 and Cleveland would take one of two in Boston (I know not exactly daring predictions).

Anyway, here's what I'm thinking now. I just have a strong gut feeling that game 5 is of the utmost importance. The reason I say that is that I think the Cavs will take game 6 in Boston no matter what. I say both teams come out jacked for game 5, and it's tight 'till the end. If Cleveland pulls game 5 out, a bad combo of Cleveland smelling blood and Boston pressing too hard and rediscovering the problems that have nagged them all year will lead to a 10-15 point Cleveland victory in game 6.

If Boston wins game 5, I'd see Cleveland having the sense of urgency to strike back in game 6 and perhaps win a tantalizingly close affair. That would send it back to Cleveland, where I think Boston would be p---ed enough and have enough resolve to win in a game 7. My main point - Cleveland needs to shut the door now if it wants to win the series, and if they do then things will spiral out of control real quickly for the Celtics. Otherwise, the Cs will have enough of that championship moxie to prevail.

The question then becomes, who takes game 5? My answer - I have absolutely no idea!

What do think of alternate paths to the end of the series forecasting, though? Make sense? Somehow I just think that the inconsistency of Boston all year, which would usually make predictions tougher, is making it really easy for me to guess how they're going to react to different situations.

[yoursweatersux]

"The importance of Game 5" thread got me thinking about this. Usually I'm terrible with this sort of thing, but so far in these playoffs I feel like I've been anticipating exactly what's going to happen to the Cs, starting with the easy disposal of the Heat, and then after game 1 I was pretty convinced that the Celts would win game 2 and Cleveland would take one of two in Boston (I know not exactly daring predictions).

Anyway, here's what I'm thinking now. I just have a strong gut feeling that game 5 is of the utmost importance. The reason I say that is that I think the Cavs will take game 6 in Boston no matter what. I say both teams come out jacked for game 5, and it's tight 'till the end. If Cleveland pulls game 5 out, a bad combo of Cleveland smelling blood and Boston pressing too hard and rediscovering the problems that have nagged them all year will lead to a 10-15 point Cleveland victory in game 6.

If Boston wins game 5, I'd see Cleveland having the sense of urgency to strike back in game 6 and perhaps win a tantalizingly close affair. That would send it back to Cleveland, where I think Boston would be peeved enough and have enough resolve to win in a game 7. My main point - Cleveland needs to shut the door now if it wants to win the series, and if they do then things will spiral out of control real quickly for the Celtics. Otherwise, the Cs will have enough of that championship moxie to prevail.

The question then becomes, who takes game 5? My answer - I have absolutely no idea!

What do think of alternate paths to the end of the series forecasting, though? Make sense? Somehow I just think that the inconsistency of Boston all year, which would usually make predictions tougher, is making it really easy for me to guess how they're going to react to different situations.

I actually see it exactly the same way. I was just talking to one of my friends about this when I said whoever wins game 5 wins the series. Here's hoping we win that one!

[rav123]

Makes sense. But I think whoever wins Game 5 will lose Game 6 but win Game 7 and the series. Either way, this next game will be the big one.

[Donoghus]

Whoever wins Game 5 is winning the series. 

I'm almost entirely convinced of that.

This is probably the biggest single game of the New Three era. 

[Evantime34]

This series is going 7. If the Cavs win game 5 we win game 6 and vise versa. Get ready for a showdown.

[angryguy77]

Whoever wins Game 5 is winning the series. 

I'm almost entirely convinced of that.

This is probably the biggest single game of the New Three era. 

I agree, game 5 is the series imo. We adjusted to them after game 3 and if we handle the changes they throw at us in game 5, I don't believe they will have another answer for us.
They will key in on rondo again and if that doens't work, they will not stop us.

I feel good about the next game. I think we take it. I believe this is the game paul gets going.

[Who]

I don't think game five is a must win game.

I thought game two was and game four became one due to the game three loss ... but I don't see game five as a pivotal tie.

I think both of these teams are capable of winning game six + game seven after losing a game five. Especially given the nature of the series so far with both teams winning on each others home court.

[fugazzi24]

My gut feeling is this, the Celtics Must Win Game 5 and 6 to win this series. 

Yes, they MUST win game 5 and 6!

If we split and end up going back to Cleavland for game 7 the chances of us winning are very small.  Game 7 in Cleavland with the way this series had been offciated would be a joke. 

Lebron would be able to foul everyone anytime he wanted, not dribble and run to the basket and not be touched when going for a rebound.  We would basically have to play 10 ft off him at all times or he would foul our entire team out.

Is it possible we could still win a game 7 in Cleavland, absolutely but we would need a stellar shooting performance from Pirece and Allen because Cleavland would live at the line.

[slamtheking]

My gut feeling is this, the Celtics Must Win Game 5 and 6 to win this series. 

Yes, they MUST win game 5 and 6!

If we split and end up going back to Cleavland for game 7 the chances of us winning are very small.  Game 7 in Cleavland with the way this series had been offciated would be a joke. 

Lebron would be able to foul everyone anytime he wanted, not dribble and run to the basket and not be touched when going for a rebound.  We would basically have to play 10 ft off him at all times or he would foul our entire team out.

Is it possible we could still win a game 7 in Cleavland, absolutely but we would need a stellar shooting performance from Pirece and Allen because Cleavland would live at the line.

that's my gut feeling as well and a very realistic appraisal of the situation.  The C's best chance to finish off the Cavs is to take the next 2 games.  I think they'll be playing 5 on 8 in a game 7 in Cleveland. 

I don't see Cle taking this in 6.  after the fiasco of game 3, I think the C's will move heaven and earth not to lose this series on their home court if Cle takes game 5.

[Q_FBE]

I dunno. Perhaps I see a combination of the 1974 Finals where the road team won 5 of 7 games and 1984 finals where Boston lost the 1st game at home, got blown out by the Lakers in the 3rd game and then squeaked out two close games in two and four before Ole Larry willed them to victory in Games 5 and 7.

Either way both series ended favorably for Boston!

Perhaps Rondo wills them to victory or if Lebron guards Rondo as I suspect he will, that will create openings for Pierce, Garnett, or Ray (Tony?) Allen to take advantage of.

Either way, after Friday night, I am glad we are back in The Debate.

[Moranis]

I think they'll be playing 5 on 8 in a game 7 in Cleveland. 

enough with this crap.  Give it a rest already.  Turn off the koolaid, put down the hate glasses, and just stop with this crap.  You are the reason Boston fans are hated.  No one is out to get the Celtics, the refs aren't on the Cavs side.  If the Cavs win game 7, it is because the Cavs are a better team, with the best player, and are playing at home. 

Just stop with the insanity.

[BballTim]

I don't think game five is a must win game.

I thought game two was and game four became one due to the game three loss ... but I don't see game five as a pivotal tie.

I think both of these teams are capable of winning game six + game seven after losing a game five. Especially given the nature of the series so far with both teams winning on each others home court.

  I think if we win game 5 there's a better chance that Cleveland folds than us folding if we lose game 5. I think the pressure goes up on them significantly.

[slamtheking]

I think they'll be playing 5 on 8 in a game 7 in Cleveland. 

enough with this crap.  Give it a rest already.  Turn off the koolaid, put down the hate glasses, and just stop with this crap.  You are the reason Boston fans are hated.  No one is out to get the Celtics, the refs aren't on the Cavs side.  If the Cavs win game 7, it is because the Cavs are a better team, with the best player, and are playing at home. 

Just stop with the insanity.

dude, if you're even suggesting for one second that the officiating hasn't been lopsided in Cleveland's favor for the majority of this series, you're the one that need to adjust the glasses you're wearing. I said nothing about refs out to get the C's -- your words, not mine.  I simply stated the obvious that the Cavs were getting blatantly lopsided officiating in their favor.

Go watch games 1 and 2 again and tell me the C's got a fair shake. 

as for last night's game, that was still a badly officiated game but more evenly distributed in terms of bad calls for both teams.  Chronic bad officiating is inexcusable in a professional sport but when it's evenly bad for both teams, it's tolerable becuase it passes for fair play.

just for good measure, mark my words, IF this gets to game 7, Bron will NOT have 3 fouls called on him like he did last night.  No matter what he does on the court, he will not get more than 1 foul in that game and it will have to be extremely blatant for the refs to call it. 

Cle very well may beat the C's based on their level of play like in game 3 where they'd win regardless of the officiating (and for the record, officials were not an issue in that game or last night for that matter) but rest assured, if it's a fairly close game, C's will be fighting 5 on 8 that night.  Feel free to check back here after that game and call me on it if I'm wrong. 

[wahz]

Im afraid that since we have now won the two key must win games that this is setting up a loss in game 5 and a showdown in game 7. We are probably even MORE likely to win game 7 than game 5.

[FatjohnReturns]

Celtics in 6. Cleveland is one more loss away, from falling apart mentally.