Why the Celtics will beat the Cavs

[nickagneta]

• The total team concept - the Celtics built this team around team defense, unselfishness, ball movement and diversity. Not just one player on this team dominates the ball or the scoring or the defense. On any given night any one of 8 different players can beat you. On most nights, any one of 5 different players will be the star. They have the best starting five in basketball and their core seven man team has already won a championship together by sacrificing their games for the greater good of the team coming before the individual.
• Kevin Garnett's health - KG is as healthy as he has been all year and his game is starting to show it in all areas. He's rebounding better, moving better in the post on help defense and shooting better. The C's go as Rondo goes but they will win in the playoffs only as far as KG takes them and being at his best physically is a great start
• The Pierce/LeBron matchup - no other small forward in the game matchups up on LeBron as well as does Paul Pierce. Pierce's defense overall is severely under rated but where his defense shines is in the playoffs and against the toughest matchups. No other player in the league at the SF position can match up against LeBron physically, defensively and offensively. LeBron CAN NOT play off Pierce on defense and help out because the Captain is so dangerous offensively. Pierce has on a regualr basis shown he can out quick LeBron but at the same time shoot over him as well. Pierce isn't strictly a defensive or offensive player and because of that LeBron HAS to play him one up on both sides of the court and this decreases his overall effectiveness. Numbers wise, Pierce will lose this battle. But what he provides in allowing his team to stay within their concept while disrupting the concepts of Cleveland because LeBron's effectivenss is lessen and he has to stick to his man allows Pierce to win this war.
• Rondo - simply put, when Rondo is playing his playoff brand of basketball like he did against Chicago last year and he did against Miami for most of that series, Cleveland just does not have an answer for him. None of the Cleveland guards can guard him or contain him and he will be a monster on the defensive boards this series.
• Perkins defense against true centers - he is probably one of the best defensive one on one big man post defenders in the league. He can neutralize centers the caliber of Shaq and Howard and others one on one without the assistance of a double team help defender as well as anyone in the league. If he can limit Shaq's while he is in their, that will cause major problems for the Cleveland offensive flow as they try to force teams to double down on Shaq when he is in the game.
• Ray Allen is lighting it up from deep - since March 1st and including the playoffs Ray is shooting 44% from three point land. He's shooting it at a 47% clip from beyond the arc since the playoffs started. And unlike some team's, the Cavs do not have fast, quick, stick to you man defenders that can fight through the screens and run Ray off the three point line. Ray will have a monster series versus the Cavs from outside.
• The Celtics plus defenders at the wing off the bench - Pierce will have to rest or will inevitably get in foul trouble guarding LeBron. It happens to every team. But the Celtics have Daniels and Tony Allen to come of the bench and guard Lebron. Both have physical limitations in guarding LeBron but both are good defenders against LeBron and will make him work for his while Pierce is resting or sitting because of fouls. Do not underestimate how important this will be over the course of a seven game series.
• The Celtics experience and Celtic Pride - Cleveland hasn't won it all. Boston has. Boston's core has been together for 3 years. Cleveland's has been constantly changing. When the going gets rough this familiarity with each other, this championship experience and pedigree and this pride will come into play. It always does.
• Doc Rivers - he's just a better coach than Mike Brown and it will show itself in this series

[reggie35]

I, for one, hope you are right.

[Donoghus]

We have to be able to rebound and limit Cleveland's 2nd chance scoring opportunities.  They can kill you when they get all those extra possessions.  In that sense, Varejao scares me.   They need to know where he is and keep him from the boards.

[BostonIrishGuy]

• The total team concept - the Celtics built this team around team defense, unselfishness, ball movement and diversity. Not just one player on this team dominates the ball or the scoring or the defense. On any given night any one of 8 different players can beat you. On most nights, any one of 5 different players will be the star. They have the best starting five in basketball and their core seven man team has already won a championship together by sacrificing their games for the greater good of the team coming before the individual.
• Kevin Garnett's health - KG is as healthy as he has been all year and his game is starting to show it in all areas. He's rebounding better, moving better in the post on help defense and shooting better. The C's go as Rondo goes but they will win in the playoffs only as far as KG takes them and being at his best physically is a great start
• The Pierce/LeBron matchup - no other small forward in the game matchups up on LeBron as well as does Paul Pierce. Pierce's defense overall is severely under rated but where his defense shines is in the playoffs and against the toughest matchups. No other player in the league at the SF position can match up against LeBron physically, defensively and offensively. LeBron CAN NOT play off Pierce on defense and help out because the Captain is so dangerous offensively. Pierce has on a regualr basis shown he can out quick LeBron but at the same time shoot over him as well. Pierce isn't strictly a defensive or offensive player and because of that LeBron HAS to play him one up on both sides of the court and this decreases his overall effectiveness. Numbers wise, Pierce will lose this battle. But what he provides in allowing his team to stay within their concept while disrupting the concepts of Cleveland because LeBron's effectivenss is lessen and he has to stick to his man allows Pierce to win this war.
• Rondo - simply put, when Rondo is playing his playoff brand of basketball like he did against Chicago last year and he did against Miami for most of that series, Cleveland just does not have an answer for him. None of the Cleveland guards can guard him or contain him and he will be a monster on the defensive boards this series.
• Perkins defense against true centers - he is probably one of the best defensive one on one big man post defenders in the league. He can neutralize centers the caliber of Shaq and Howard and others one on one without the assistance of a double team help defender as well as anyone in the league. If he can limit Shaq's while he is in their, that will cause major problems for the Cleveland offensive flow as they try to force teams to double down on Shaq when he is in the game.
• Ray Allen is lighting it up from deep - since March 1st and including the playoffs Ray is shooting 44% from three point land. He's shooting it at a 47% clip from beyond the arc since the playoffs started. And unlike some team's, the Cavs do not have fast, quick, stick to you man defenders that can fight through the screens and run Ray off the three point line. Ray will have a monster series versus the Cavs from outside.
• The Celtics plus defenders at the wing off the bench - Pierce will have to rest or will inevitably get in foul trouble guarding LeBron. It happens to every team. But the Celtics have Daniels and Tony Allen to come of the bench and guard Lebron. Both have physical limitations in guarding LeBron but both are good defenders against LeBron and will make him work for his while Pierce is resting or sitting because of fouls. Do not underestimate how important this will be over the course of a seven game series.
• The Celtics experience and Celtic Pride - Cleveland hasn't won it all. Boston has. Boston's core has been together for 3 years. Cleveland's has been constantly changing. When the going gets rough this familiarity with each other, this championship experience and pedigree and this pride will come into play. It always does.
• Doc Rivers - he's just a better coach than Mike Brown and it will show itself in this series

Great write up and go C's! I do have some thoughts on this (not to be a downer, but just as objective as I can be) and I decided to add my two cents.  

Yes, he C's seem to have found this "team concept" against Miami rather well. I think they can keep it going against Cleveland, but the thing to keep in mind is the Cavs are a deep team also and have several guys who can step it up (Jamison, Mo Williams, Sideshow Verejao). They do have a chip on their shoulder and have the home court. Certainly an obstacle for our beloved C's.

KG does seem to be playing much better - which is a huge determining factor for this series. I think the combination of KG and Big Baby/TicketSTub/whatever is important in the low post if we are going to win this series. Cleveland has alot of size down low (Shaq, Z, Sideshow Verejao, Jamison, etc) so our bigs must come up big. Another thing that wouldn't hurt is if Sheed finally decides to show up this season - this wouldn't be a bad time for it.

I think Lebron's elbow is just fine and he looks like he's on a mission unfortunately. I don't think Pierce will slow him down much, and I wouldn't doubt it if they don't use Lebron to guard Pierce. I do think Rondo will ABUSE the Cavs backcourt, and the C's must use this to their advantage every single game.

If Ray can keep hitting 3's and the Garden can keep rockin with that Celtic Pride, I'm going to say Celtics win in 6. I say C's will take game one and defend the Garden. GO CELTICS!

[Donoghus]

Gotta steal one in CLE.  That's almost imperative.

[looseball]

• The total team concept - the Celtics built this team around team defense, unselfishness, ball movement and diversity. Not just one player on this team dominates the ball or the scoring or the defense. On any given night any one of 8 different players can beat you. On most nights, any one of 5 different players will be the star. They have the best starting five in basketball and their core seven man team has already won a championship together by sacrificing their games for the greater good of the team coming before the individual.
• Kevin Garnett's health - KG is as healthy as he has been all year and his game is starting to show it in all areas. He's rebounding better, moving better in the post on help defense and shooting better. The C's go as Rondo goes but they will win in the playoffs only as far as KG takes them and being at his best physically is a great start
• The Pierce/LeBron matchup - no other small forward in the game matchups up on LeBron as well as does Paul Pierce. Pierce's defense overall is severely under rated but where his defense shines is in the playoffs and against the toughest matchups. No other player in the league at the SF position can match up against LeBron physically, defensively and offensively. LeBron CAN NOT play off Pierce on defense and help out because the Captain is so dangerous offensively. Pierce has on a regualr basis shown he can out quick LeBron but at the same time shoot over him as well. Pierce isn't strictly a defensive or offensive player and because of that LeBron HAS to play him one up on both sides of the court and this decreases his overall effectiveness. Numbers wise, Pierce will lose this battle. But what he provides in allowing his team to stay within their concept while disrupting the concepts of Cleveland because LeBron's effectivenss is lessen and he has to stick to his man allows Pierce to win this war.
• Rondo - simply put, when Rondo is playing his playoff brand of basketball like he did against Chicago last year and he did against Miami for most of that series, Cleveland just does not have an answer for him. None of the Cleveland guards can guard him or contain him and he will be a monster on the defensive boards this series.
• Perkins defense against true centers - he is probably one of the best defensive one on one big man post defenders in the league. He can neutralize centers the caliber of Shaq and Howard and others one on one without the assistance of a double team help defender as well as anyone in the league. If he can limit Shaq's while he is in their, that will cause major problems for the Cleveland offensive flow as they try to force teams to double down on Shaq when he is in the game.
• Ray Allen is lighting it up from deep - since March 1st and including the playoffs Ray is shooting 44% from three point land. He's shooting it at a 47% clip from beyond the arc since the playoffs started. And unlike some team's, the Cavs do not have fast, quick, stick to you man defenders that can fight through the screens and run Ray off the three point line. Ray will have a monster series versus the Cavs from outside.
• The Celtics plus defenders at the wing off the bench - Pierce will have to rest or will inevitably get in foul trouble guarding LeBron. It happens to every team. But the Celtics have Daniels and Tony Allen to come of the bench and guard Lebron. Both have physical limitations in guarding LeBron but both are good defenders against LeBron and will make him work for his while Pierce is resting or sitting because of fouls. Do not underestimate how important this will be over the course of a seven game series.
• The Celtics experience and Celtic Pride - Cleveland hasn't won it all. Boston has. Boston's core has been together for 3 years. Cleveland's has been constantly changing. When the going gets rough this familiarity with each other, this championship experience and pedigree and this pride will come into play. It always does.
• Doc Rivers - he's just a better coach than Mike Brown and it will show itself in this series

Astute analysis!  (The likes of which you don't find in the local papers.)  TP!

[the_Bird]

Gotta steal one in CLE.  That's almost imperative.

Gonna be mighty difficult to win the series if you don't win at least once on the road, given that they DO have, you know, home court advantage and all... 

[fairweatherfan]

Gotta steal one in CLE.  That's almost imperative.

Definitely - we absolutely need one, and maybe two, wins in their house.

Tall order ahead of us but we can fill it if we play the way we did in stretches against Miami.

[Greenbean]

We have to be able to rebound and limit Cleveland's 2nd chance scoring opportunities.  They can kill you when they get all those extra possessions.  In that sense, Varejao scares me.   They need to know where he is and keep him from the boards.

Totally agree. That is why I was encouraged much of the Miami series to see Pierce and Rondo crashing the boards and really shoring up the defensive rebounding.

Also, awesome write-up Nick! You get a Tommy Heinshon point

[Donoghus]

Gotta steal one in CLE.  That's almost imperative.

Gonna be mighty difficult to win the series if you don't win at least once on the road, given that they DO have, you know, home court advantage and all... 

Guess I should've been more.  Thought it was pretty apparent. Gotta win one of the first two.

Can't go back to BOS down 0-2.

[the_Bird]

The Celtics big men need to keep a body on Sideshow.  As hard as it is to stop LeBron, we can't be letting him get two or three chances each time down the floor.  They need to be keyed in on defensive rebounds, boxing out.  Outside of LeBron, he's the guy who scares me more than anything.

[Witch-King]

Our bench has been almost as good as it can be so far; Tony Allen and Glen Davis are working wonders on the defensive end, and Davis specifically has stepped it up to around where he was this time last year except that now our team as a whole is much deeper.

We have proven to ourselves that we can win games either shooting from the perimiter (see Ray Allen game 2) or even if we are struggling from range (game 1). We can win either at home or on the road and we can even make the clutch shot at the end of games to avoid any unnecessary overtime periods.

As far as the other team's star player is concerned, we were able to contain the Heat even when Dwyane Wade was on fire so it isn't like stopping LeBron and the Cavs is impossible. To me this team has everything it will take to defeat the Cavaliers in the playoffs this season, though we may very well have to take a few away games from them in order to do it...

[Spilling Green Dye]

• The total team concept - the Celtics built this team around team defense, unselfishness, ball movement and diversity. Not just one player on this team dominates the ball or the scoring or the defense. On any given night any one of 8 different players can beat you. On most nights, any one of 5 different players will be the star. They have the best starting five in basketball and their core seven man team has already won a championship together by sacrificing their games for the greater good of the team coming before the individual.
• Kevin Garnett's health - KG is as healthy as he has been all year and his game is starting to show it in all areas. He's rebounding better, moving better in the post on help defense and shooting better. The C's go as Rondo goes but they will win in the playoffs only as far as KG takes them and being at his best physically is a great start
• The Pierce/LeBron matchup - no other small forward in the game matchups up on LeBron as well as does Paul Pierce. Pierce's defense overall is severely under rated but where his defense shines is in the playoffs and against the toughest matchups. No other player in the league at the SF position can match up against LeBron physically, defensively and offensively. LeBron CAN NOT play off Pierce on defense and help out because the Captain is so dangerous offensively. Pierce has on a regualr basis shown he can out quick LeBron but at the same time shoot over him as well. Pierce isn't strictly a defensive or offensive player and because of that LeBron HAS to play him one up on both sides of the court and this decreases his overall effectiveness. Numbers wise, Pierce will lose this battle. But what he provides in allowing his team to stay within their concept while disrupting the concepts of Cleveland because LeBron's effectivenss is lessen and he has to stick to his man allows Pierce to win this war.
• Rondo - simply put, when Rondo is playing his playoff brand of basketball like he did against Chicago last year and he did against Miami for most of that series, Cleveland just does not have an answer for him. None of the Cleveland guards can guard him or contain him and he will be a monster on the defensive boards this series.
• Perkins defense against true centers - he is probably one of the best defensive one on one big man post defenders in the league. He can neutralize centers the caliber of Shaq and Howard and others one on one without the assistance of a double team help defender as well as anyone in the league. If he can limit Shaq's while he is in their, that will cause major problems for the Cleveland offensive flow as they try to force teams to double down on Shaq when he is in the game.
• Ray Allen is lighting it up from deep - since March 1st and including the playoffs Ray is shooting 44% from three point land. He's shooting it at a 47% clip from beyond the arc since the playoffs started. And unlike some team's, the Cavs do not have fast, quick, stick to you man defenders that can fight through the screens and run Ray off the three point line. Ray will have a monster series versus the Cavs from outside.
• The Celtics plus defenders at the wing off the bench - Pierce will have to rest or will inevitably get in foul trouble guarding LeBron. It happens to every team. But the Celtics have Daniels and Tony Allen to come of the bench and guard Lebron. Both have physical limitations in guarding LeBron but both are good defenders against LeBron and will make him work for his while Pierce is resting or sitting because of fouls. Do not underestimate how important this will be over the course of a seven game series.
• The Celtics experience and Celtic Pride - Cleveland hasn't won it all. Boston has. Boston's core has been together for 3 years. Cleveland's has been constantly changing. When the going gets rough this familiarity with each other, this championship experience and pedigree and this pride will come into play. It always does.
• Doc Rivers - he's just a better coach than Mike Brown and it will show itself in this series

TP for everything about this thread.  As I was reading it I kept thinking "Oh I'll add this to the list", but then I'd see you mention it later.  I really don't have anything new to add, but I like the following differences from the last time we played them in the playoffs:

-Rondo is better than before.
-Ray Allen really can't perform any worse against the Cavs than he did 2 years ago against them.  And he's looking great, so this could be a huge plus for the Celtics.
-The pressure this time is all on the Cavs, whereas last time it was mostly on the Celtics.  If the game gets close or the Cavs are behind, I'm hoping that they implode from the pressure!

I'm not particularly sure we have the coaching edge, with the exception of the 4th quarter.  I am hoping that Doc doesn't always play the reaction game, but instead occasionally tries to force the Cavs to play to the Celtic's lineup.  

[Mr October]

The Celtics and Cavs are built to knock each other out. They match up very well against each other (including many of the reasons in the OP).

I expect both teams to play hard on both ends, have their successes and have their struggles. But the bottom line in my mind is really one thing:

Rebounds.

The team that controls the boards will win the series. Admittedly the advantage goes to Cleveland on this. But the re-charged playoff C's are a different animal, and they will need to at least hold their own on the glass. If they do, I think they have a great shot at taking the Cavs out.

[MMacOH]

Some comments:  Rondo - The Cavs are going to force Rondo into being a jump shooter.  That will most likely mean Parker or Moon will be covering him (unless Mo actually winds up staying in front of him), using their size against him.  The Cavs guards will just go under the pick and roll and let Rondo shoot jumpers all day long.  Look at how the Cavs defended Rose.  They forced him to take a lot of shots to get his points and really limited his drives to the hoop (outside of game 4). 

Pierce - Sorry, when the Celtics played the Cavs in the playoffs last Pierce relied on Posey to cover Lebron to save his stamina for 7 games.  There's a reason Lebron averages almost 40 pts/game against the C's.  Lebron has a huge advantage over Paul.  Pierce will limit Lebron's help defense, which will help the Celtics.

Team - The Cavs play as a team, they just know who should be the focus.  Guys can step up when Lebron's shot is off and he is facilitating (like last night).  Jamison, Shaq and Delonte all picked up the slack last night.

KG, Ray Allen and Doc -  I think these are guys are the keys to the Celtics success.  The Cavs are going to make KG work much harder on the defensive end than the Heat.  KG will be chasing Jamison, AV and Hickson all over the floor.  This won't be like guarding Beasley who was lost more of than not.  Ray is going to get a lot of good looks in this series.  He needs to knock them down.  And Doc is definitely better than Mike Brown.

I will be interested to see how the C's will handle the Cavs smaller lineups.  They have a had a pretty hard time dealing with the Cavs quickness and athleticism when they have either Hickson or AV at the 5. 

The Jamison trade for the Cavs was huge.  He can be on the floor when lebron is sitting and give the Cavs a legitimate 3.  This was not the case the last time these teams met in the playoffs.  Lebron either had to play too many minutes or the Celtics had the luxury of having Sasha Pavlovic at the 3.