Danny Ainge's job performance since the 2007 off season

[Brendan]

WARNING: a lot of posts while I wrote this novel below, so I am a bit redundant.

The context of the whole DA evaluation since he got KG and Ray should be seen in how he filled the three main roles: backup big, backup wing, backup PG. Since we won in 2008, we give him a pass. But he really could have done himself a favor signing Posey for three years at the time, we'd be in Posey's final year now and would not have had to think about that spot since.

1. I don't think Nate has done a bad job. His role is to backup Rondo, and as expected we've shortened the bench in playoffs and really TA has seen almost all the bench minutes at 1/2/3 with Finley. The reason is they are more useful in this series and are playing better. If Rondo misses a game, I'll be thankful to have Nate over Eddie House.

2. I think not getting Chris Anderson was a huge deal. I have to think he could have been gotten with an aggressive push, a three year MLE. Having a big rotation of Perk / Anderson at C and BBD / Powe at PF would have been huge. You cannot overstate how much better Anderson is than Miki Moore, PO'B, and Sheed. As an added bonus he'd be going into his final year, instead of having two more. Instead they danced around with Maggette and Posey.

3. I do give minus points for DA resigning Tony Allen, and drafting JR and Walker, and then having a coach that played none of them and instead relied on House as his primary backup wing. (Read that again and say ugh to yourself.) I think primary wing/guard backups of Tony Allen and looking for a midseason pickup to augment (altho Marbury didn't work) wasn't a bad plan. Just something the coach of the team wouldn't go for. It's DA's team and coach - not having them on same page hurts.

4. They could have gone after Grant Hill first with the MLE and then chased big men left on the market (or waited in season to resign one.) Would they have been worse if the big rotation had been Perk / Sheldon and KG / BBD / Scal? Resigned Powe and hoped to get a boost mid season?

In summary - I think he never got a big move to secure some talented depth and consistency. I guess big man didn't look like a big issue with Perk, BBD, and Powe around KG, but that's been the nagging problem more than the wings in my mind. In the playoffs Pierce, Allen, and Rondo play enough minutes that the wing roll is really reduced. What DA failed to do is get a wing that Doc trusted enough to play consistently during the regular season for 2008/9.

Here's my hypothetical:

DA signs Posey to a max MLE deal for three years in 2007. (Assume no 'I got my money, now I'm lazy' type drop off, Posey being on a one year deal may have kept him motivated.) In 2009/10 he'd be our Finley, older three point shooter second wing. In 2008 he signs Anderson as the fourth big with a three year MLE type deal. Resigns House and Allen. Sells his first round pick (instead of drafting JR) and buys Walker.

Perk / Anderson / BBD
KG / Powe / Scal
Pierce / Posey / Walker
Allen / Allen
Rondo / House / (Marbury at mid season)

This team doesn't get by CLE without KG (probably) but gets by ORL. Don't forget that Powe went out against CHI - the team DA had that year probably gets by ORL if Powe doesn't get a flat tire.

The big payoff is this year, coming into the season they'd have:

Perk / Anderson
KG / BBD / Scal (assume Powe still gets hurt, etc.)
Pierce / Posey / Walker
Allen / Allen
Rondo / House

Instead of adding Rasheed for 2011 and 2012, they can play out the string with about the same team and a lot more flexibility. How much better is a team with Anderson instead of Sheed? Hard to say. With a bigger wing that could shoot in Posey, they'd have had more options in who to bring in as the backup guard.

At the end of the day - that's probably not enough to change the fortune of the team. I think they spend a little more money on salaries up to this point, but without the bad Sheed deal. They probably also get a few more home playoff games. And that's DA's real challenge. He can't effect the team much without taking out one of the starters - and doing that will almost certainly make the team worst before it gets better. I'd give him a B for everything since KG was picked up, since 2007, maybe a B-. Not sure that was a way for him to get an A.

[jdpapa3]

You can't say the staff completely botched the Chris Andersen situation. The guy admits that he came into a workout out of shape. For a team that had just gone through the Sebastian Telfair gun situation and Wyc freaking out, do you really want to take a risk on a past drug addict that didn't even get into shape for quite possibly the biggest summer of his life?

Sheed looks bad now, but I can see where he's coming from on the signing. Shooting generally doesn't just leave a player, but it has for him. Shaq had just got traded to our biggest competitor, you're looking at Dwight in Orlando , and KG had just come off of knee surgery. It looked like signing Sheed gave us a fighter's chance if Perkins went down.

Daniels was worth the risk of the LLE. He is an injury prone player that is pretty good when healthy. And he got hurt. I simply don't see many other options that signed for low money like this in the summer.

And not for nothing, but we might be sipping the Danny Kool-aid a bit more if Bill Walker had received a fighting chance. Doc kinda looked foolish when he made the statement that he didn't know Bill could shoot.

[jdpapa3]

But Brendan, Posey had an offer for 4 years. I swear I remember reading that we upped our offer to the MLE for 3 years, but Posey sided with the extra year.

[BballTim]

WARNING: a lot of posts while I wrote this novel below, so I am a bit redundant.

The context of the whole DA evaluation since he got KG and Ray should be seen in how he filled the three main roles: backup big, backup wing, backup PG. Since we won in 2008, we give him a pass. But he really could have done himself a favor signing Posey for three years at the time, we'd be in Posey's final year now and would not have had to think about that spot since.

1. I don't think Nate has done a bad job. His role is to backup Rondo, and as expected we've shortened the bench in playoffs and really TA has seen almost all the bench minutes at 1/2/3 with Finley. The reason is they are more useful in this series and are playing better. If Rondo misses a game, I'll be thankful to have Nate over Eddie House.

2. I think not getting Chris Anderson was a huge deal. I have to think he could have been gotten with an aggressive push, a three year MLE. Having a big rotation of Perk / Anderson at C and BBD / Powe at PF would have been huge. You cannot overstate how much better Anderson is than Miki Moore, PO'B, and Sheed. As an added bonus he'd be going into his final year, instead of having two more. Instead they danced around with Maggette and Posey.

3. I do give minus points for DA resigning Tony Allen, and drafting JR and Walker, and then having a coach that played none of them and instead relied on House as his primary backup wing. (Read that again and say ugh to yourself.) I think primary wing/guard backups of Tony Allen and looking for a midseason pickup to augment (altho Marbury didn't work) wasn't a bad plan. Just something the coach of the team wouldn't go for. It's DA's team and coach - not having them on same page hurts.

4. They could have gone after Grant Hill first with the MLE and then chased big men left on the market (or waited in season to resign one.) Would they have been worse if the big rotation had been Perk / Sheldon and KG / BBD / Scal? Resigned Powe and hoped to get a boost mid season?

In summary - I think he never got a big move to secure some talented depth and consistency. I guess big man didn't look like a big issue with Perk, BBD, and Powe around KG, but that's been the nagging problem more than the wings in my mind. In the playoffs Pierce, Allen, and Rondo play enough minutes that the wing roll is really reduced. What DA failed to do is get a wing that Doc trusted enough to play consistently during the regular season for 2008/9.

Here's my hypothetical:

DA signs Posey to a max MLE deal for three years in 2007. (Assume no 'I got my money, now I'm lazy' type drop off, Posey being on a one year deal may have kept him motivated.) In 2009/10 he'd be our Finley, older three point shooter second wing. In 2008 he signs Anderson as the fourth big with a three year MLE type deal. Resigns House and Allen. Sells his first round pick (instead of drafting JR) and buys Walker.

Perk / Anderson / BBD
KG / Powe / Scal
Pierce / Posey / Walker
Allen / Allen
Rondo / House / (Marbury at mid season)

This team doesn't get by CLE without KG (probably) but gets by ORL. Don't forget that Powe went out against CHI - the team DA had that year probably gets by ORL if Powe doesn't get a flat tire.

The big payoff is this year, coming into the season they'd have:

Perk / Anderson
KG / BBD / Scal (assume Powe still gets hurt, etc.)
Pierce / Posey / Walker
Allen / Allen
Rondo / House

Instead of adding Rasheed for 2011 and 2012, they can play out the string with about the same team and a lot more flexibility. How much better is a team with Anderson instead of Sheed? Hard to say. With a bigger wing that could shoot in Posey, they'd have had more options in who to bring in as the backup guard.

At the end of the day - that's probably not enough to change the fortune of the team. I think they spend a little more money on salaries up to this point, but without the bad Sheed deal. They probably also get a few more home playoff games. And that's DA's real challenge. He can't effect the team much without taking out one of the starters - and doing that will almost certainly make the team worst before it gets better. I'd give him a B for everything since KG was picked up, since 2007, maybe a B-. Not sure that was a way for him to get an A.

  This is all 20-20 hindsight. You're saying Danny should have offered Posey and Birdman contracts that were wildly higher than anyone else in the league was going to offer them. Posey was sitting around unsigned well over a month into the FA period. Birdman was, I seem to recall, clearly outplayed by Baby during his tryout and signed something like a 1 year min deal with Denver.

[ScoobyDoo]

Well, this is a great post, TP to Nick. I have been one of Ainge's biggest supporters. He blew it up when he came in and traded Antoine ( something that should have been done immediately after Pierce was drafted in my opinion).

Had we landed Durant ( it was against the odds that we didn't ) Danny would be looking like a genius right now.

Perkins / Jefferson / Durant / Pierce / Rondo
DWest / Gomes and a couple free agent mid elvel signings?
Sick.

But we didn't get Durant. He trades for Ray adn KG. Very nice bounce back. Sings, PJ, Posey and Cassell. Drafts Baby, Powe, etc...

Awsome team, first title in 20+ years.

Then...

2008 off season: unmitigated disaster. YOU DO NOT BUILD A ROLLS ROYCE ( OUR STARTERS ) THEN PUT BICYCLE TIRES ON IT ( THE BENCH)
No legit back up point, center or SF. Not signing Birdman, disaster choice. Would've been perfect here.

Ainge completely stripped our bench and then said, I'm driving the starters into the ground, go get me another title. Moronic.

Peronsally, I would have put Posey with the big three and let them run. Posey got overweight in NO, here with KG, I'd bet he had a few more good years of D and threes. Re-sign Eddie and TAllen with their bird rights. Both would've have come back for the same they are getting now.
KG getting injured changed everything...but we were on fumes from day one...of this season based on pathetic off season moves.

2009 off season:

Theoretically, looks great on paper.
Rasheed, Daniels, Sheldon, and Nate...
Problem is, what made out team go, was it's toughness. Rasheed and Daniels arent' tough.

We would have been siginificatnly better had we singed Matt Barnes behind Pierce and Kurt Thomas behind Perkins. Those are smaller, less flashy moves that would have dramatically improved us this year. If not those two guys, then two other guys in the Powe, PJ mold.

Another midn boggling misstep to me...in Rondo's three years, Ainge has been unable to find a legit consistent back up for him. This is beyojd belief to me. Any mid road vet point would love to come here for average money. Three years, no permanent back up point?

All this being said, if this team wins it ( which I think it should based on the roster) if that roster actually perfoms up to the level it is truly capable of) and they are capable of crushing even all the best teams...Aing ewill have gotten us two rings in three years. Not bad...

This roster should be steam rolling everyone so I'm not going to knock Ainge on this years' roster too much. It's up to them to take it, he's given them the guns. Even Sheed, if Doc would plant him on the post...
  

[Spilling Green Dye]

Nick, I used to agree with you a lot before, but lately I find it harder and harder to.  Before the playoffs began you started a large number of threads with the underlying "doom and gloom" feel to them about how this team is done and won't do anything in the playoffs.  In fact, I can't recall the last thread you started that had a feeling of (good) excitement in it.

Yes, Danny has a big offseason coming up. 

Yes he didn't do a great job during the offseason after the championship, but as it turns out it would have been a waste to anyway (with KG's injury).

This past offseason I give him an grade of 'A'.  He filled all of the necessary positions with as much quality as could be afforded.  And he didn't do it at the expense of the future.

Rasheed or Daniels' play is no reflection on Danny. Its a reflection on Rasheed, Daniels, and the coaching staff. 

I had been a proponent of trading Ray during the offseason, as were you.  Turns out that we were wrong.  While the Celtics may not win a championship this year, I think it is safe to say that they stand as good of a chance as any of the top 4 teams... and most every other fan base would kill to say that and be in this position.  Therefore, you and I were wrong about the 'Trade Ray' motto, and Danny has outsmarted us again. 

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to get ready to watch a fun game and be thankful for all that the Celtic organization and players have done to put the team in this position. 

[jdpapa3]

Peronsally, I would have put Posey with the big three and let them run. Posey got overweight in NO, here with KG, I'd bet he had a few more good years of D and threes.
  

Why isn't this the case with Rasheed then?

[Who]

2007/08

(1) James Posey was an excellent signing.

(2) Eddie House was a very good signing. I didn't like it at the time but I was wrong. House was a capable backup point guard and a valuable cog in the Celtics' machine.

(3) Filling out the rest of that title team's bench? Yeah, Ainge did a very good job. He took a risky play waiting for midseason which I did not like -- but I also cannot remember which players were available for the minimum late in the summer so I can't criticize that -- but it paid off bringing in valuable contributors like PJ Brown and Sam Cassell.

2008/09

(4) Not re-signing Posey ... I thought that was a bad decision but I wouldn't crucify Ainge for that. It seriously weakened the 2008/09 team but left the team better positioned for future seasons.

(5) Drafting JR Giddens -- solid pick. No complaints. He wasn't my first choice but he was a good one.

(6) Free agency decisions after Posey left -- limited options and Ainge did about as well as he could do given the situation. I liked his choices for the most part.

(7) Filling out the bench? A little weak here, didn't get enough depth on the wing and it was costly for the team. Otherwise, a good job.

2009/10

[8] Signed Rasheed Wallace to a three year deal -- very bad move

(9) Signed Marquis Daniels to a one year $2 million deal, excellent move

(10) Filling out the bench? A poor job this time around. Not enough shooters in the supporting cast. Not enough athleticism. Not enough depth on the wing, again.

Over Three Years

(11) Failed to bring in any young talent, any players who could be part of the Celtics for the next several years

Judgement

I thought Danny has done a solid job considering the circumstances. Not exceptional, not bad, solid. A C+.

#1 Circumstance -- Limited avenues to acquiring young talent (one first round pick + no better MLE options in 2007 and he did fine in 2008 + limited trade options).

#2 Circumstance -- Also, given the nature of the Celtics salary cap after acquiring the Big Three ... there was always going to be a lot of roster turnover + scrimping and saving for quality minimum contract signings in free agency to build quality depth.

[Brendan]

But Brendan, Posey had an offer for 4 years. I swear I remember reading that we upped our offer to the MLE for 3 years, but Posey sided with the extra year.

In 2008, I'm saying in 2007 he probably could have got Posey to sign for more than one year.

[Mr October]

Also, I read somewhere that he offered Anderson a deal but Chris wanted to go back to Denver.

I've never read that Danny offered a contract, and I've followed this story fairly closely.  I remember Andersen saying that he'd be interested in Boston around the time of his workout here, and I read that Andersen said that he was glad he signed with Denver several months after he signed his contract, but I've never seen him say "Boston offered me a deal, but I turned it down".

You are right, Andersen was never offered a contract.  He wanted to come here and was dissapointed that Danny chose POB instead.

Easily Ainge's biggest failure that we know of in the big 3 era. ...perhaps the only big failure in this era.

choosing POB over Andersen is definitely a poor decision in hindsight but I hardly think it qualifies as "biggest failure".
I think "failure" is a bit strong to apply to a 5th big man option.  Even then, it's hardly his biggest mistake.  I'd consider the lack of a good replacement for Posey to be the biggest mistake.

My point being that if Andersen was Ainge's biggest failure, then he has done a pretty darn good job.

The trick with Posey was money and available alternatives. Posey was way underpaid when the C's signed him in 2007. Then in 2008, he wanted compensation. Even in the 2nd year of his 4 year deal with New Orleans, he is clearly viewed as over paid. He was on his last legs when we had him, and he was great. Now he is over 30 and the minutes are catching up with him. In his 2nd year in New Orleans, he is shooting 36 % from the field.

As for alternatives, who should the C's have gotten? Who was available? Not much. Tony Allen was chosen in 2008, and the alternates were other 9th or 10th-men types. IN 2009, the C's heavily persued Grant Hill, but he chose to stay with Nash in Phoenix.

Posey was essentially irreplaceable - even modern Posey couldn't replace 2007-08 Posey.   ...I don't blame that on Ainge.

Keeping that in mind the combo of TOny Allen, Finely and Daniels have done/are doing an adequate job.

[Brendan]

  This is all 20-20 hindsight. You're saying Danny should have offered Posey and Birdman contracts that were wildly higher than anyone else in the league was going to offer them. Posey was sitting around unsigned well over a month into the FA period. Birdman was, I seem to recall, clearly outplayed by Baby during his tryout and signed something like a 1 year min deal with Denver.

I agree in 2007 he would have been overpaying for Posey some, but in 2008 he would have been getting Posey on a two year MLE deal (which is what he wanted.)

Ditto for Birdman - it would have been a risk to sign him to a multi year deal, but actually I think we could have got him using PART of the MLE not all, sorry if that's not clear.

And yes its hindsight, but so what? That's a big part of how I evaluate front office, coaches, and players. In hindsight DA could have been a bit more strategic. In hindsight he got us a championship in 2008 (I mean if they lose in 7 to LAL do you feel the same about DA? But that would be in hindsight.)

I never tactically disagreed with any of those moves, except Birdman. But on the whole you have to admit there have been some places more strategic approach would have worked. Anyways, like I said even executing flawlessly, the team probably doesn't have a much different record or result in 2009 or 2010, so I gave him a B-, but think the best he could have done is a B+. I just don't see the ability for getting an A, given where he was after the KG trade in terms of roster, draft picks, salary, etc. That's not a knock, sometimes when you are in premed - orgchem takes up all your time and the best you can do in freshman lit is a B.

[JSD]

2007/08

(1) James Posey was an excellent signing.

(2) Eddie House was a very good signing. I didn't like it at the time but I was wrong. House was a capable backup point guard and a valuable cog in the Celtics' machine.

(3) Filling out the rest of that title team's bench? Yeah, Ainge did a very good job. He took a risky play waiting for midseason which I did not like -- but I also cannot remember which players were available for the minimum late in the summer so I can't criticize that -- but it paid off bringing in valuable contributors like PJ Brown and Sam Cassell.

2008/09

(4) Not re-signing Posey ... I thought that was a bad decision but I wouldn't crucify Ainge for that. It seriously weakened the 2008/09 team but left the team better positioned for future seasons.

(5) Drafting JR Giddens -- solid pick. No complaints. He wasn't my first choice but he was a good one.

(6) Free agency decisions after Posey left -- limited options and Ainge did about as well as he could do given the situation. I liked his choices for the most part.

(7) Filling out the bench? A little weak here, didn't get enough depth on the wing and it was costly for the team. Otherwise, a good job.

2009/10

[8] Signed Rasheed Wallace to a three year deal -- very bad move

(9) Signed Marquis Daniels to a one year $2 million deal, excellent move

(10) Filling out the bench? A poor job this time around. Not enough shooters in the supporting cast. Not enough athleticism. Not enough depth on the wing, again.

Over Three Years

(11) Failed to bring in any young talent, any players who could be part of the Celtics for the next several years

Judgement

I thought Danny has done a solid job considering the circumstances. Not exceptional, not bad, solid. A C+.

#1 Circumstance -- Limited avenues to acquiring young talent (one first round pick + no better MLE options in 2007 and he did fine in 2008 + limited trade options).

#2 Circumstance -- Also, given the nature of the Celtics salary cap after acquiring the Big Three ... there was always going to be a lot of roster turnover + scrimping and saving for quality minimum contract signings in free agency to build quality depth.

Bill Walker has a little game and could have a decent career in this league. The thing about the young guys, the Celtics didn't have the luxury of observing growing pains as they did in the years prior to KG and Ray arriving. I don't think it's Ainge missing as much as it was the rookies not getting an opportunity to grow.

Well put together post, WHO

[Casperian]

I´m confused. Yesterday, people said it was too early to judge wether Rasheed is a bust or not. Today, some of the same people grade Danny´s body of work over the last three years.

[Mr October]

But Brendan, Posey had an offer for 4 years. I swear I remember reading that we upped our offer to the MLE for 3 years, but Posey sided with the extra year.

In 2008, I'm saying in 2007 he probably could have got Posey to sign for more than one year.

The C's didn't have enough money in 2007 to give Posey a big deal. Posey signed at a severe discount in 2007 for all that Boston had left to offer (about 3.2 million), with the intent to opt out and get paid in 2008.

[Brendan]

I thought Danny has done a solid job considering the circumstances. Not exceptional, not bad, solid. A C+.

I pretty much agree with this. You skipped buying Bill Walker which was a good move in and of itself, but you have to wonder if having JR, Walker, and Tony Allen (and Daniels this year) was too much of not enough good thing. I can't remember were you against Sheed at the time? I remember you raising serious concerns about his declining athleticism.