Author Topic: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)  (Read 12737 times)

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Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #60 on: April 23, 2010, 12:49:41 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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Thanks for the TP mmbaby, appreciate it, agree with you also re the weight issue, that's the million dollar question to me, all the other tools are there. The weight change would go along ways towards solving maybe his biggest physical limitation by giving him just enough more quickness and lift to solve his current aroudn the rim issues.

This has been a great, intersting post and read, TP for te original poster again.

I have another question and then another proposition/pojection that I'd be interested to hear the feed back from people on.

1. The question:

I like stats and all that and they obviously have merit and have a place in the game. However, I also think they are overrated in judging a player's importance to the team.

Thee is a big difference betwen great players and winners; between hard working guys and guys with big heart.
I think Baby is a winner with a big heart. He emotionally lives for the big games and his heart is always on the floor. I put my money with those types of players because they'll never give up.

I like Bosh but I'd much rather have Horford.
I like Chris Paul but I'd much rather have Rondo
I like "the idea" of Bynum but I'd much rather have Perkins, or Bogut.
I like Carmelo but I'd much rather have Durant
I like Kobe's game but I'd much rather have Lebron

Michael Cooper, Maxwell, DJ, Fisher, AC Green, Rambis, Paul Silas.

My Point is, stats are great but they tell you everything you need to know about a player, at all. Amd most importantly they don't tell you anything about the guy's heart and mentality.

Second point is, Baby has limits, like Unseld, Dantley, Barkeley, etc. Can he overcome them is the only question.

Short answer is anything is posible to get around: Sneakiness around the rim, left and right hands, weight loss, etc...

Leads to proposition / projection statement:
Sorry but I'm giving myself a little credit here on this..

1. Way back when Perk was just a pudgy lad, you could still see what his heart and what his mentality was. I argued at that time on this board that Perk would eventually settle in at around 12 points, 8 boards and 2-3 blocks a night. I defended that statement and took a massive beating over it.

Today Perks numbers are 10.5, 6 and 1.5 in.....25 minutes/night

2. I watched Rondo play limited minutes at the end of his rookie year and posted he was a game changing player. Also took a amssive beating. He's doing ok now.

Both Rondo and Perk had to overcome significatn shortcomings to be starters on NBA championship team.

3. I see Baby sort of in between Rondo and Perk; he's more developed than Perk was and less developed than Rondo was as far as pure skills at their given positions.

My point is, I'm less concerend with wehere Baby is right now than where I think he might be able to go.

My thoughts are:
1. It's there for him to take. It's up to him if he watns it. He has all the tools. He only needs to learn how to create more space around the rim for his shot using the width of his body, lose about 20-30 pounds, adn develop very reliable left and right hand baby hooks and by doing so be able touse the rim to create up and under space as well.

I project that "IF HE CAN ACCOMPLISH THESE THINGS", he could eventually settle with the following numbers on a contending team:

20+ points a night
10+ boards a night
3-4 assists per night
1-2 blocks a night
1-2 steals a night

If he doesnt' accomplish the above things and sort of stagnates, he will remain what he is right now.

His progression thus far suggests he is more likely to achieve it than not.

Remember, it took Perkins almost 6 years.

Where will baby be in year 5 and year 6?

That is the question.
   



 

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #61 on: April 23, 2010, 01:00:43 PM »

Offline Mr October

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Davis's short arms, short height (for a PF) are always going to hold him back, no matter how much weight he looses.

If he were to get in the best shape possible, I think his ceiling is Anthony Mason / Carlos Boozer.

So far his weight issue is still only slowly being improved. I wish the best for him and his potential - but ultimately think he is what he is - a nice high energy role player on a contender's bench.

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #62 on: April 23, 2010, 01:01:07 PM »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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I project that "IF HE CAN ACCOMPLISH THESE THINGS", he could eventually settle with the following numbers on a contending team:

20+ points a night
10+ boards a night
3-4 assists per night
1-2 blocks a night
1-2 steals a night

If he doesnt' accomplish the above things and sort of stagnates, he will remain what he is right now.
 

The number of current NBA players with the above stats?  Zero.  There are very few players in the NBA that average 20/10, and those who do or come close (Bosh, Randolph, Lee, Boozer) generally aren't defensive forces (and thus don't have the blocks).

I agree that BBD has some potential, but I just can't see him reaching the upper echelon of NBA big men.

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Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #63 on: April 23, 2010, 01:01:44 PM »

Offline mmbaby

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Thanks for the TP mmbaby, appreciate it, agree with you also re the weight issue, that's the million dollar question to me, all the other tools are there. The weight change would go along ways towards solving maybe his biggest physical limitation by giving him just enough more quickness and lift to solve his current aroudn the rim issues.

This has been a great, intersting post and read, TP for te original poster again.

I have another question and then another proposition/pojection that I'd be interested to hear the feed back from people on.

1. The question:

I like stats and all that and they obviously have merit and have a place in the game. However, I also think they are overrated in judging a player's importance to the team.

Thee is a big difference betwen great players and winners; between hard working guys and guys with big heart.
I think Baby is a winner with a big heart. He emotionally lives for the big games and his heart is always on the floor. I put my money with those types of players because they'll never give up.

I like Bosh but I'd much rather have Horford.
I like Chris Paul but I'd much rather have Rondo
I like "the idea" of Bynum but I'd much rather have Perkins, or Bogut.
I like Carmelo but I'd much rather have Durant
I like Kobe's game but I'd much rather have Lebron

Michael Cooper, Maxwell, DJ, Fisher, AC Green, Rambis, Paul Silas.

My Point is, stats are great but they tell you everything you need to know about a player, at all. Amd most importantly they don't tell you anything about the guy's heart and mentality.

Second point is, Baby has limits, like Unseld, Dantley, Barkeley, etc. Can he overcome them is the only question.

Short answer is anything is posible to get around: Sneakiness around the rim, left and right hands, weight loss, etc...

Leads to proposition / projection statement:
Sorry but I'm giving myself a little credit here on this..

1. Way back when Perk was just a pudgy lad, you could still see what his heart and what his mentality was. I argued at that time on this board that Perk would eventually settle in at around 12 points, 8 boards and 2-3 blocks a night. I defended that statement and took a massive beating over it.

Today Perks numbers are 10.5, 6 and 1.5 in.....25 minutes/night

2. I watched Rondo play limited minutes at the end of his rookie year and posted he was a game changing player. Also took a amssive beating. He's doing ok now.

Both Rondo and Perk had to overcome significatn shortcomings to be starters on NBA championship team.

3. I see Baby sort of in between Rondo and Perk; he's more developed than Perk was and less developed than Rondo was as far as pure skills at their given positions.

My point is, I'm less concerend with wehere Baby is right now than where I think he might be able to go.

My thoughts are:
1. It's there for him to take. It's up to him if he watns it. He has all the tools. He only needs to learn how to create more space around the rim for his shot using the width of his body, lose about 20-30 pounds, adn develop very reliable left and right hand baby hooks and by doing so be able touse the rim to create up and under space as well.

I project that "IF HE CAN ACCOMPLISH THESE THINGS", he could eventually settle with the following numbers on a contending team:

20+ points a night
10+ boards a night
3-4 assists per night
1-2 blocks a night
1-2 steals a night

If he doesnt' accomplish the above things and sort of stagnates, he will remain what he is right now.

His progression thus far suggests he is more likely to achieve it than not.

Remember, it took Perkins almost 6 years.

Where will baby be in year 5 and year 6?

That is the question.

Once again, Scoobydoo, great post! And great predictions. And another TP.

I so totally agree that the stat numbers never show a true picture. They are somewhat of a 'guide' but don't take into account so many important aspects of how a player effects a team and how a player effects a team win.

And really appreciate your intelligent articulation of the reality of the game

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #64 on: April 23, 2010, 01:13:04 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I project that "IF HE CAN ACCOMPLISH THESE THINGS", he could eventually settle with the following numbers on a contending team:

20+ points a night
10+ boards a night
3-4 assists per night
1-2 blocks a night
1-2 steals a night

If he doesnt' accomplish the above things and sort of stagnates, he will remain what he is right now.
 

The number of current NBA players with the above stats?  Zero.  There are very few players in the NBA that average 20/10, and those who do or come close (Bosh, Randolph, Lee, Boozer) generally aren't defensive forces (and thus don't have the blocks).

I agree that BBD has some potential, but I just can't see him reaching the upper echelon of NBA big men.


So if baby does everything right, he can become Hakeem #2. I'm with Roy on this one.

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #65 on: April 23, 2010, 01:28:30 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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I project that "IF HE CAN ACCOMPLISH THESE THINGS", he could eventually settle with the following numbers on a contending team:

20+ points a night
10+ boards a night
3-4 assists per night
1-2 blocks a night
1-2 steals a night

If he doesnt' accomplish the above things and sort of stagnates, he will remain what he is right now.
 

The number of current NBA players with the above stats?  Zero.  There are very few players in the NBA that average 20/10, and those who do or come close (Bosh, Randolph, Lee, Boozer) generally aren't defensive forces (and thus don't have the blocks).

I agree that BBD has some potential, but I just can't see him reaching the upper echelon of NBA big men.
Those numbers are a few assists shy of KG's career averages.

Do you really think BBD can become as good as KG was/is?

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #66 on: April 23, 2010, 01:38:06 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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I would say a ceiling for him as a starter would be the following:

17 pts(although this might even be higher)
8 rbs
3 assists
1 stl

6 shots blocked (still wouldn't care)

Now if you think those numbers are good enough at the starting PF position then you have a nice 3/4.  Just think the C's starting PF currently averages 14/7...

Just as a reminder:

BBD 16/6 last playoffs
Little Fockers 1.5/10
Gulliver's Travels 1/10
Grown Ups -20/10
Tron Legacy 6.5/10

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #67 on: April 23, 2010, 01:43:11 PM »

Offline Chris

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I would say a ceiling for him as a starter would be the following:

17 pts(although this might even be higher)
8 rbs
3 assists
1 stl

6 shots blocked (still wouldn't care)

Now if you think those numbers are good enough at the starting PF position then you have a nice 3/4.  Just think the C's starting PF currently averages 14/7...

I think the rebound and points number is a little high, but its not completely unreasonable.  The thing is, numbers are decieving.

I think Davis could absolutely be an NBA starter along the lines of Kenny Thomas, Ryan Gomes, Reggie Evans, or any other role player that is pushed into the starting role by lack of competition. 

The key with Davis, or any other player like him, is that yes, he is good enough to start in the NBA.  However, if he is your starter, it most likely means that your team is not very good.

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #68 on: April 23, 2010, 01:47:05 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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I would say a ceiling for him as a starter would be the following:

17 pts(although this might even be higher)
8 rbs
3 assists
1 stl

6 shots blocked (still wouldn't care)

Now if you think those numbers are good enough at the starting PF position then you have a nice 3/4.  Just think the C's starting PF currently averages 14/7...

I think the rebound and points number is a little high, but its not completely unreasonable.  The thing is, numbers are decieving.

I think Davis could absolutely be an NBA starter along the lines of Kenny Thomas, Ryan Gomes, Reggie Evans, or any other role player that is pushed into the starting role by lack of competition. 

The key with Davis, or any other player like him, is that yes, he is good enough to start in the NBA.  However, if he is your starter, it most likely means that your team is not very good.

I consider him a much better player than those 3 (reggie evans ???) but, you may be right those numbers don't scream great starting lineup.  I appreciate him for what he is and don't get into the what I wish he was. 
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Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #69 on: April 23, 2010, 01:48:38 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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Points well taken and thanks for the feed back. I admit to being the ultimate optimist and also agree you are probably all right that he may never reach those stats.

But he averaged what, 15 & 8 last year in his second season in the league in the playoffs. He put up 23 & 8 in game two.

So...maybe not those numbers I stated but if, in season two, after minimal playing time his rookie season, he steps into the starting lineup last 3rd of the season and playoffs and averages 15.5 and 8 boards a game when it matters...

Is it then that inconceivable to think that with:

1. Less weight, more quickness, lift and overall speed
2. Better understanding how to use his body( elbows and shoulders) to create space.
3. locks down left and right hand space creating baby hooks that work well over larger players for a play of any size...and help you use the rim as well
4. 2-3 more years of learning and dedicating work on his game
5. More playing time...

That he might be able to go from averaging 16 and 8 to 18 or 20 and a couple more boards? ...occasionally hit you with 25+ points per night games and 10+ boards per night.

I think you have me on assists and blocks, so maybe he averages 1 block and a couple of assists...

But is 3-4 more points a game and another board or two a night a resonable prgression from your year two numbers to your year 5 or six numbers?




Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #70 on: April 23, 2010, 01:54:56 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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Re Birdbrain and Chris comments and whetehr it's a good team or not, it depends on team structure. If your go to guys for points are at the SF and Off guard and Rondo at the point. The main job for Perk and Baby would be to physically dominate the paint, a job they are well suited for.

Look, Ideally I'd like to keep Perkins at Center and put a long decent scoring PF next to him.

I just think Baby might suprise people with exactly how effective he can be if he accomplishes the things he would need to to reach his full potential.

I do agree with Chris, I see Baby with an overall higher skill level than Thomas, Gomes or Evans, he is a rare Body type, which in itself is a mjor asset, especially in the playoffs.

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #71 on: April 23, 2010, 02:43:54 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I think when people throw projected numbers out there, they really underestimate how hard it is to reach certain levels. Yeah, anybody can hit any scoring/rebounding mark in a given game, but you have to be special to AVERAGE such numbers.

People throw out "20 and 10 guy" as if most talented starting forwards hit that level each year.

As a point of reference, Perk (a very good rebounder) was at 7.6 rpg. 8.0 rpg for a season would tied for 23rd most rpg in the league this year. Pierce was our leader with 18.3, while our second scorer (allen) was at 16.3. 17 ppg would be 39th in the league. To do both at the same time is even harder. To expect Davis to be a better rebounder than Perk was this year and better scorer than Ray Allen was this year for a full season is very difficult.


For example. Make a list of 20/10 guys in your head.














Now, Here were the 20/10 guys for '09-'10:

Bosh
Lee
Randolph


Now make a list of people you think must have hit 17pts, 8rbs.








Ready? Here it is:
Randolph
Lee
Bosh
Duncan
Gerald Wallace
Boozer
Dwight
Kaman
Al Jefferson
Amare
Brook Lopez
Aldridge



That's it. Could Davis duplicate those numbers for a whole season? Possible. But highly unlikely at this point.

Just for fun:

Players with 17pts/8rbs/3assts for '09-'10:

Duncan, Boozer, Lee.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2010, 02:49:26 PM by Fan from VT »

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #72 on: April 23, 2010, 03:09:47 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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I think when people throw projected numbers out there, they really underestimate how hard it is to reach certain levels. Yeah, anybody can hit any scoring/rebounding mark in a given game, but you have to be special to AVERAGE such numbers.

People throw out "20 and 10 guy" as if most talented starting forwards hit that level each year.

As a point of reference, Perk (a very good rebounder) was at 7.6 rpg. 8.0 rpg for a season would tied for 23rd most rpg in the league this year. Pierce was our leader with 18.3, while our second scorer (allen) was at 16.3. 17 ppg would be 39th in the league. To do both at the same time is even harder. To expect Davis to be a better rebounder than Perk was this year and better scorer than Ray Allen was this year for a full season is very difficult.


For example. Make a list of 20/10 guys in your head.














Now, Here were the 20/10 guys for '09-'10:

Bosh
Lee
Randolph


Now make a list of people you think must have hit 17pts, 8rbs.








Ready? Here it is:
Randolph
Lee
Bosh
Duncan
Gerald Wallace
Boozer
Dwight
Kaman
Al Jefferson
Amare
Brook Lopez
Aldridge



That's it. Could Davis duplicate those numbers for a whole season? Possible. But highly unlikely at this point.

Just for fun:

Players with 17pts/8rbs/3assts for '09-'10:

Duncan, Boozer, Lee.

Of course the caveat to your point is Perk only plays 30 min a game and I would suspect BBD to average at least mid 30's if he was the starter. 

I'm shocked that Lee actually averages 3 assists. 

I do agree with your overall point though that anyone can get those numbers on a given night but, to expect them to average it over a season is pushing it. 
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Gulliver's Travels 1/10
Grown Ups -20/10
Tron Legacy 6.5/10

Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #73 on: April 23, 2010, 03:20:19 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Here are the starting power forwards for the other playoff teams this year.  Which ones are better than BBD?  Or, to make a smaller list, which ones are worse?

Denver - Kenyon Martin
Utah - Carlos Boozer
San Antonio - Tim Duncan
Dallas - Dirk Nowitzki
Portland  LaMarcus Aldridge
Phoenix - Amare Stoudemire
LA Lakers - Pau Gasol
Oklahoma City - Jeff Green
Cleveland - Antawn Jamison
Chicago - Taj Gibson
Charlotte - Boris Diaw
Orlando - Rashard Lewis
Milwaukee - Luc Richard Mbah a Moute
Atlanta - Josh Smith
Miami - Michael Beasley
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Re: The Real Question We Should Be Asking (Can BBD be future starter?)
« Reply #74 on: April 23, 2010, 06:58:23 PM »

Offline ScoobyDoo

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I see your point Fan from VT re the number of guys who "actually" average those numbers. It's a very small list.

I also understand the issue of the problem with throwing out projections; it is a much diffeent scenario to put those numbers up over an extended period VS. a single game as Baby did in Game 2. I agree.

As a counter point/question to the above two statments, could we:

1. Acknowledge that Big Baby, over the course of the last 3rd of the 2009 season and the playoffs roughly averaged 16 points, 6 rebounds nearly 2 assists and 1.5 steals per game in an average of 36 minutes a night? In his "second" season in the league.... in the playoffs as well, when it matters most...

2. If this fact has been established, then if he improves at all, is it really an "unfair projection" or a "problematic projection" to say that with additional improvement and maturity over the next 2-3 seasons that the same person who accomplished the numbers above over 20-30+ games in 2009, has an outside chance of imcreasing those totals from:

16 points per night to 20 per night? add a few more baskets?
6 rebounds a night to 8 or 9 boards a night?
2 assist per night to 3?
1.5 steals a night to 2?

I'm not tryign to be argumentative but I don't see where that type of optimistic projection, based on a verified past performance, is an unrealistic leap.

I actually think it's a very logical expectation and that is without even considering possible significant body change via weight.