If you are what you are.....

[Spilling Green Dye]

Nickagenta,

Do you really think that if the Celtics played a .500 team in the playoffs, they would only go .500 themselves against that team.  I personally don't think so.

Say what you will about past performances, but none of us know exactly what we'll see in the playoffs from the Celtics. And if you guys are so certain, then by all means go to Vegas and make a living.

[jdpapa3]

Starters seem to be pretty good when you look at +/- data against playoff teams.

How the starters +/- looked against playoff teams:
Cleveland: even
Utah: huge plus
Phoenix: moderate plus
Atlanta: huge neg.
Magic: huge neg.
Spurs: huge plus
OKC: huge plus
Bucks: huge plus
Magic: even
Portland: even
Atlanta: moderate plus
Lakers: even
Miami: moderate plus
Orlando: moderate neg.
Portland: huge plus
Denver: huge neg.
Cavs: moderate neg.
Charlotte: huge plus
Bucks: moderate neg.
Cavs: even
Mavs: huge plus
Utah: huge neg
Denver: huge plus
Thunder: even (refs:huge egos)

Even: 6, Huge plus: 8, Huge neg: 4, moderate plus: 3, moderate negative: 3

Games against playoff teams. Didn't include the pre-Jackson Bobcats, the Raptors because they are complete posers, lakers w/no Kobe or any games where the starting 5 was not in tact. My requisites might've changed mid-looking it up. I did it for fun mostly  . Probably forgot a few teams or missed a few games so take it with a 1 lb bag of salt.

Concerning: lack of success against the Magic, lack of success of the bench, lack of closing these games out against the playoff teams, went 11-13 in these games(very concerning)

Signs of encouragement: bench minutes will dwindle down in playoff time and Rondo, Pierce, KG, Ray will be racking up 38+ per contest and hopefully the bench guys look a lot better when paired next to actual talent, look to be even against the true contenders of the league: LAL, Orl, Cleveland, Denver, Dallas, utah, but thats objective, road success and the fact that the Garden will wake up again in 3 weeks

Overall, I'd put us down as 3rd most likely to make it out of the East. Cleveland heavy favorites, but Shaq slows them down both statistically and literally. Orlando will be a tough out, but it's hard for me to fear them when you consider we took them to 7 w/no KG.

Go C's.

[vinnie]

  I think it's hard to get a read on these guys because they're (supposedly) trying to get ready for the playoffs and not going all out to win games. We, on the other hand, are using the results of the games to judge if they're ready for the playoffs. Doc seems to be pretty happy with how the team's doing, and he doesn't have much of a reason to lie about it.

So how is the way they have been playing getting this team ready for the playoffs?

[Reyquila]

Comfortable wins? How many of those have we had this year and NOW, suddenly we should get 6 comfortable wins out of the remaining 7 games? Explain that to me please.

[Who]

Next seven games

• Cleveland
• at New York
• at Toronto
• Washington
• at Milwaukee
• at Chicago
• Milwaukee

Out of their final seven games, Boston should win five or six games. Likely loss to Cleveland and possibly splitting the pair of games against Milwaukee. The four other games should be comfortable wins.

At that point, the Celtics have finished the season winning 11 or 12 of their final 17 games and 15 or 16 of their final 24.

On another note ... here is Atlanta's schedule

• Just finished beating Detroit
• at Charlotte
• at Detroit
• Toronto
• at Washington
• at Milwaukee
• Cleveland

Their schedule is very similar to the Celtics. One very tough opponent in the Cleveland Cavaliers, although that is the final game of the season and Cleveland may choose to rest some of their stars, and, two games which are somewhat difficult against the Bucks and Bobcats. Then four games that should be comfortable wins - one of which they just got tonight.

The Hawks already had a one game lead over the Celtics and given the almost identical difficulty of the two team's remaining schedules ... Atlanta should be able to hold on and claim that third spot which means Boston would have Cleveland in the second round of the playoffs.

Boston does own the tiebreaker so they only need the Hawks to slip up once and then punish them for it. More likely it goes the other way though.

[looseball]

I think Nick makes a very good point in his OP (TP) and I think the lynch-pin of that argument is that they have been 7-7 since everyone has been healthy and in their roles.  While not a tremendous amount of games, I think that 12% of the season is a large enough sample size to conclude that have played at a very average level.

I heard that they would turn it one down the stretch when everyone was healthy, and they haven't. So, I have a very hard time believing that once the post-season starts their going to rebound, run the floor, not settle for jump shots and play 48 minutes of defense.  

The reason for my pessimism is that when I watch this team I see a group of guys that do not have their legs under them. I think age, injury and general fitness has killed this team's endurance.  A team that does not run, slash, rebound or play defense throughout the game, is a team that is out of shape. Personally I do not think it is a lack of heart or hustle, rather a lack of legs.  The biggest indicator of this may be second half performances.  Often they come out and play hard in the first half and go into the break with a strong lead. But in the second half they come out and they are tight, they become a jump shooting team and they take possessions off on defense.  IMO the tired legs stiffen up and sap the endurance.

To an extent I have to blame this on Danny and Doc.  Their focus on pampering the vets (ie fewer practices) is part of the root problem.  I think they worried about the mileage at the expense of the maintainence.  It's like letting and old car sit.  If you do not run i,t it may not turn over. But if you take it out too much, you are going to need to repair it.  It is a horrible metaphor, but as the owner of a 1992 Camry (210,000 mi) it was the first thing that came to mind.

Having watched Paul and KG since they have come into the league, I have a hard time believing that any team they are on would dog it.  They are both true competitors and spent most of their careers playing their hearts out for terrible teams.  I just cannot see those two guys resting on their laurels and playing half-assed.  Yes there are guys in the locker room who are notorious for it, but those two are the leaders and the team should take their personality.  I honestly do not think it is a lack of effort.  Unfortunately, it is a lack of physical ability to make good on the effort.

Yet, so many want to increase these old-guys-with-tired-legs minutes in the playoffs.  I say less is more. 

[kenmaine]

Their real problem is that KG does not play stifling defense like he once did.  He used to cover the whole lane and the corners as well.  I never understood how Thibodeau's D worked but it really worked because of KG - the KG of 2 years ago.  Their D is no longer there and it magnifies all of the other weaknesses.

TP-
You nailed it.
If KG can play at close to his ability, then anything is possible.
As far as the team as a whole- my eyes tell me that they're playing much better lately than a few weeks ago. Hasn't really translated into a winning streak, which is a bit frustrating, but I don't think the situation is hopeless.

[jdpapa3]

Their real problem is that KG does not play stifling defense like he once did.  He used to cover the whole lane and the corners as well.  I never understood how Thibodeau's D worked but it really worked because of KG - the KG of 2 years ago.  Their D is no longer there and it magnifies all of the other weaknesses.

TP-
You nailed it.
 

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/john_schuhmann/04/01/numbers.game.all.defense/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1

[Fafnir]

Their real problem is that KG does not play stifling defense like he once did.  He used to cover the whole lane and the corners as well.  I never understood how Thibodeau's D worked but it really worked because of KG - the KG of 2 years ago.  Their D is no longer there and it magnifies all of the other weaknesses.

TP-
You nailed it.
 

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/john_schuhmann/04/01/numbers.game.all.defense/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1

Garnett's decline offensively has been an issue though. Though Pierce and Ray have declined more in my eyes.

[jdpapa3]

Their real problem is that KG does not play stifling defense like he once did.  He used to cover the whole lane and the corners as well.  I never understood how Thibodeau's D worked but it really worked because of KG - the KG of 2 years ago.  Their D is no longer there and it magnifies all of the other weaknesses.

TP-
You nailed it.
 

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/features/john_schuhmann/04/01/numbers.game.all.defense/index.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1

Garnett's decline offensively has been an issue though. Though Pierce and Ray have declined more in my eyes.

Definitely has been. Can no longer expect him to attack mismatches on offense consistently. I think Rondo's offensive improvement has been equal to or greater than Ticket's offensive decline.

Pierce and Ray seem to be getting different looks than they got in the past. Ray's 2's have improved and Pierce's 3's have. Kind of weird and unexpected if you ask me, but both are still very effective. I'd take Ray 09 offensively over Ray 07. Pierce has started to show capability of taking over games and I'd be very excited about this team if he had just hit that [dang] iso at the end of the Houston game.

[PosImpos]

Hey guys, New Jersey is 4-2 in their past 6 games.

That's a 54 win pace!

[Andy Jick]

this thread conjured up a certain image in my mind (sorry, couldn't help myself)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cDAq5tyfk9E

[LB3533]

Offensively, the only issues I see from the Big 3 are:

KG = lack of lift on his alley oops

Ray = decline in 3 point shooting

Pierce = lack of calls (respect) from refs (Not Paul's fault)

Every other problems like in the defense, poor rebounding and turnovers.

If we could maintain our elite defense and fix either the rebounding or the turnovers we'd be title contenders for certain.

But for some games all 3 of those elements are god awful and we are playing too high a pace for our offense to sustain.

[jdpapa3]

Season-long, I feel like the problem has been the offense. The offense finally looks like it's running with some fluidity and the defense has taken a step back in the past few games. Gotta get both things working. And the defensive rebounding lapses we have suffered at times looks like poor effort and focus. Poor offensive rebounding can be attributed to coaching philosophy based off of Doc's quotes on the subject.

[D Dub]

We're not nearly as in-tune as we were in 2008.  Paul and KG have regressed, but Rondo has made huge progress, and Perk too.  I don't think that's a net gain, but I also feel that Cleveland and Orlando also have weaker teams than in years past.  Atlanta scares me, but they too have a pretty glaring holes on the bench - they really only play 6 or 7 guys.

If this team tightens up the defense and rebounding, and if they can get consistent play from Rondo - they can still win a title this year. 

I feel Rajon is the key, he's got to stay aggressive and hit FT's late in games for us to win a close series.  Last night was a good case of him ruling the entire game, and then disappearing late.