Is Marquis Daniels the odd man out when the rotation shortens?

[nickagneta]

Right now, barring foul trouble, this is what Doc Rivers rotations seems to look like. He brings in his bench front court of Rasheed, Marquis and Baby to play with Rondo and Ray for 3 minutes or so at the end of the first quater. Doc then brings in Nate and Finley to play a 5 man bench for 4-6 minutes or so to start the second quarter. Then he puts in his starting front court again to play with the Finley and Nate for a couple minutes before reuniting the starters for the last few minutes of the second quarter. Then everything gets repeated in the second half.

He has kind of gone like this since Michael Finley and Nate Robinson have acclimated themselves to the team 3-4 games ago. It hasn't been set in stone yet but it sure looks like this is a rotation Doc is trying to establish. Honestly, for Doc, given his lack of desire for change, it's been a fairly major move, believe it or not. He seems to be making an honest attempt at integrating starters with bench players and moving away for the large wholesale changes he is known for.

So that got me thinking, sooner or later, come playoff time, Doc Rivers is going to have to shorten his rotation. So who will be the odd man out? believe it or not, to me the man I think he might just sit is Marquis Daniels. Daniels was brought here to be a wing back up that could also serve as the facilitator for the second team with Eddie acting more as the shooting guard and Marquis the ball handling play maker. But with the trade for Nate Robinson, that role for Marquis is now kind of extinct.

Nate does most of the ball handling with the second group and he needs to have the ball in his hands to be most effective as a scorer and as a playmaker for the others. That limits Marquis' role to that of a slasher/post up defensive wing player as he is kind of limited if the offense isn't starting through him or if the offense isn't fast break oriented.

So, because of those limitations and also because of the abundance of pack it in half court defenses the Celtics will see in the playoffs, will Marquis end up sitting while Michael Finley gets minutes as the wing man off the bench?

It makes sense. Finley can get his shot off off the dribble and space the floor because of a very good outside shot and range well past the three point line. Something Marquis just can not do. Finley also has shown a great ability to pick up the defense and his man defense has been pleasantly surprising to me as he seems to hustle and definitely cause problems for his man.

So unless Doc goes with the ten man rotation he's running out there now, I think he's going to HAVE to drop at least one guy so that he can increase the minutes of his starters and when he does, I say, don't be surprised if the man riding pine is Marquis Daniels.

[coco]

I really enjoy having Doc as our coach and probaly gets a pass for life because of the Championship on 2008.  Having said that, when it comes to ratations, I don't think Doc is good at picking/adjusting for a game in hand.  So I hope we play 10 as long as possible because if we force Doc to make a desicion, he'll probably choose the wrong rotation.   

[jdpapa3]

I see what you are talking about and I have been wondering this myself. Pierce and Ray will probably be playing 38 minutes a piece in the playoffs and that only leaves 20 minutes or so for Finley/Daniels or even Robinson, depending on the opposing team.

Finley's defense has also surprised me. He was even able to stay with the young legs of Budinger last night on an isolation. Chase couldn't burn him. This might turn into a case of "what does the team need?" or "who's hot lately?" Daniels is better at getting to the rim and the team might need that in a particular game. Or if teams are packing it in because we are missing everything from the outside, Fin is a good option to keep them honest.

A pretty good player is going to be left out and I'm glad I'm not the guy who has to make that decision. 

[BudweiserCeltic]

The rotations won't be shortened as much as you think it'll be shortened. All 5 "main" subs will play right off the bat. If one or another start sucking for one reason or another, then they'll find themselves in the bench more often than not. I very much doubt there's a game plan to just come and shorten the rotation because I'm pretty sure Doc wants to use all 5 of the bench guys.

It has been pretty much this way for the past 2 seasons during the playoffs. Exceptions were Eddie House and Tony Allen. The later pretty much because of injuries late in the season while the former with his lack of height and ball-handling skills made it difficult to just play him in certain match-ups/situations ahead of a PG who can actually handle the ball. I don't see that being a problem this year, other than with Nate getting abused for his shortness, but he has ball-handling going for him.

In all, I think a lot has to happen for the 5 bench guys not to get minutes I think. I think Nate has the shortest leash though.

[Kiorrik]

I just hope he doesn't play starters for the whole first half, in any game.

It's obvious that what we lack is consistent energy and mister Spark-plug and co can actually deliver this. We need Doc to keep rotating, and not overplay the starters. That's all I'm worried about.

[BballTim]

The rotations won't be shortened as much as you think it'll be shortened. All 5 "main" subs will play right off the bat. If one or another start sucking for one reason or another, then they'll find themselves in the bench more often than not. I very much doubt there's a game plan to just come and shorten the rotation because I'm pretty sure Doc wants to use all 5 of the bench guys.

It has been pretty much this way for the past 2 seasons during the playoffs. Exceptions were Eddie House and Tony Allen. The later pretty much because of injuries late in the season while the former with his lack of height and ball-handling skills made it difficult to just play him in certain match-ups/situations ahead of a PG who can actually handle the ball. I don't see that being a problem this year, other than with Nate getting abused for his shortness, but he has ball-handling going for him.

In all, I think a lot has to happen for the 5 bench guys not to get minutes I think. I think Nate has the shortest leash though.

  He's generally gone with an 8+ man rotation, with the "+" being the 2nd big that gets 8-9 minutes a game. It's hard to say whether it's by design or necessity.

  As for Marquis, it's hard to say what his role is. I don't think Nate is a great playmaker, and he won't be able to stay on the court long if everyone's able to post him up.

[looseball]

I don't agree with shortening the rotations at all.  They play best when a lot of guys play a lot of minutes.  They keep the pressure on the other teams for longer periods this way.

I think the older guys give better production when they play shorter minutes, as they can only go all out at both ends of the court in spurts now.  If asked to play more minutes in the playoffs, they'll only coast.  And that's what causes them to lose the momentum, and they have serious problems regaining it once they have lost it.

[jdub1660]

The only person I see snubbed here is Tony Allen. He's played great most of the year, but b/c Finley can shoot and Quis can do a little of everything, that leaves out TA.

Rondo - Nate
Ray - Finley
Pierce - Quis
KG - BBD
Perk - Sheed

Sheldon and Tony left for garbage time. Scal and Landry IA

[snively]

I certainly haven't been a fan of Marquis this season, especially at the 3.  The Baby-Sheed-Daniels frontcourt is terrible on the boards and Quis's high-efficiency offense is too low-impact to keep the 40%ish shooters from taking the vast majority of the shots.  

Finley's an equally poor rebounder, but if he can continue to shoot so well, than he can at least help re-orient the offense in a healthy direction.  Still, he's far, far from ideal as the 1st wing off the bench

If Nate can get a hold of the offense, I'd prefer playing TA over Daniels.  

[2short]

I had posted something before on if doc was going to continue playing the "2nd line" and try to wear teams down.
I think if the rotation shortens there will be guys losing minutes whereas I'd like to see doc doing situational subbing, outside shooting finley, defending sg tony etc.  BUT imo daniels is definately not going to be the odd man out.  
Marquis doesn't have the outside shot but he adds so much to the team.  Good defender, underrated imo, passer, mid range game etc.  Finley I have been impressed with but don't see him getting too many minutes, I feel doc has been giving him extra minutes to be acclimated asap to offense.  Tony while playing good will probably platoon with finley unless its for defending wade etc.  Tony 6'6" would be a different story but he's what 6'4"?  Nate should be getting 10 minutes or so as pg.

In a perfect world come playoffs if we need outside shooting finley will get the extra minutes, help defending lebron is marquis, defending wade tony etc

[Jon]

I think the reality of the situation is that the minutes will be shortened.  And that's probably the right move.  The best players really should be playing the maximum amount of minutes they can sustain a high level of play.  

That said, I don't think Daniels will be the one to sit by any stretch of the imagination.  I get what Nick said about his skill-set; however, I don't think that matters all that much.  Doc still shows a clear preference to him (as he played more minutes last night than Fin or Nate).  Moreover, when it comes down to pure talent, the three best players on our bench are Wallace, Daniels, and Robinson.  While Daniels doesn't shoot well, the other two do.  Thus, it's likely, in an 8-man rotation, that he'd pretty much always be on the court with 2-3 great shooters, and many times up to 4 (say a Robinson, Allen, Daniels, KG, Wallace lineup).  

[BudweiserCeltic]

The rotations won't be shortened as much as you think it'll be shortened. All 5 "main" subs will play right off the bat. If one or another start sucking for one reason or another, then they'll find themselves in the bench more often than not. I very much doubt there's a game plan to just come and shorten the rotation because I'm pretty sure Doc wants to use all 5 of the bench guys.

It has been pretty much this way for the past 2 seasons during the playoffs. Exceptions were Eddie House and Tony Allen. The later pretty much because of injuries late in the season while the former with his lack of height and ball-handling skills made it difficult to just play him in certain match-ups/situations ahead of a PG who can actually handle the ball. I don't see that being a problem this year, other than with Nate getting abused for his shortness, but he has ball-handling going for him.

In all, I think a lot has to happen for the 5 bench guys not to get minutes I think. I think Nate has the shortest leash though.

  He's generally gone with an 8+ man rotation, with the "+" being the 2nd big that gets 8-9 minutes a game. It's hard to say whether it's by design or necessity.

  As for Marquis, it's hard to say what his role is. I don't think Nate is a great playmaker, and he won't be able to stay on the court long if everyone's able to post him up.

Not early on. He starts off going with his full bench cycles or with 4 subs at the very least, until they start sucking.

In 2008, it was Davis and Powe dropping the ball so Doc was forced to play a 3 man rotation with Brown during crucial games during the playoffs. But early on we saw Cassell, Posey, Davis or Powe, and Brown getting in there, and I would think he had given TA a bit more playing time if he hadn't been injured right before the playoffs started. Davis and Powe were inconsistent so they were dropped off, and Cassell got replaced by House.

In 2007, it's a bit trickier because of all the injuries, but no doubt if we were full on, we'd see Garnett starting, and all of House, Marbury, TA, Powe, and Davis getting minutes early on.

But what we did see was Moore getting minutes early on until he exhausted his chances.

So in all, I just can't envision Doc not giving all these guys chances early on before he settles into a rotation, and given that most if not all of these guys are veterans, they should get plenty of chances. And if one isn't showing up, I don't think Doc would hesitate much to insert TA. So really I don't think we'll see much of short rotations in my opinion other than if a series takes a turn for the worse or in crucial games.

But yeah, I agree with your 8+ idea of those 1 or 2 extra guys coming afterward for shorter stints as needed (probably Finley and Baby in this case). Though I think Rondo will be seeing the most playing time so that might eat up into Nate's playing time.

[Mr October]

I think the C's will have a 5 man bench in the playoffs. KG and Pierce wont be able to handle high minutes - they'd burnout.

Maybe something like this:

Rondo - 36, Robinson - 12
Allen - 36, Finley - 14
Pierce - 35, Daniels - 12
Garnett - 32, Davis - 12
Perkins - 30, Wallace - 21

(this is taking into account foul trouble)

The bench has been great lately, and i'd like to keep seeing them all play - mixed and matched with the starters.

[looseball]

I see what you are talking about and I have been wondering this myself. Pierce and Ray will probably be playing 38 minutes a piece in the playoffs and that only leaves 20 minutes or so for Finley/Daniels or even Robinson, depending on the opposing team.

If Pierce and Ray are playing 38 minutes, I see them resting (on the court) for at least 8 of those minutes.

[Who]

Michael Finley would be the weakest rotation regular on any of the top four teams in the Eastern Conference.