rebuilding trade

[Chris]

Honestly, I think it is impossible to know when they are going to be good again.  There are so many variables involved, including the new CBA, which could either set them back further, or give them a leg up, depending on how it works out.  But really, more than anything, luck is going to be the difference between becoming mediocre, and actually building into a contender again.  Whether it is winning the lottery, or a superstar coming on the trade market, right as their assets are reaching their peak value (see: KG trade), they are going to need some luck to go their way. 

Now, that does not mean that Danny can just do whatever he wants.  He needs to put them in position to take advantage.  That is what OKC and Memphis have done.  They have both done excellent jobs of getting the teams into a spot where they have the cap flexibility to prey off other teams that don't, in order to collect assets.  And yes, they got a little lucky as well (especially OKC), but their luck wouldn't have mattered if they didn't make smart decisions with their contracts.

[Greenbean]

Ill tell you one thing, they are due for some luck in the draft. Not that a team can rely on that but sheesh, it's been a while since we really hit a home run.

[Greenbean]

Honestly, I think it is impossible to know when they are going to be good again.  There are so many variables involved, including the new CBA, which could either set them back further, or give them a leg up, depending on how it works out.  But really, more than anything, luck is going to be the difference between becoming mediocre, and actually building into a contender again.  Whether it is winning the lottery, or a superstar coming on the trade market, right as their assets are reaching their peak value (see: KG trade), they are going to need some luck to go their way. 

Now, that does not mean that Danny can just do whatever he wants.  He needs to put them in position to take advantage.  That is what OKC and Memphis have done.  They have both done excellent jobs of getting the teams into a spot where they have the cap flexibility to prey off other teams that don't, in order to collect assets.  And yes, they got a little lucky as well (especially OKC), but their luck wouldn't have mattered if they didn't make smart decisions with their contracts.

Jinx on a luck comment.

[wdleehi]

Ill tell you one thing, they are due for some luck in the draft. Not that a team can rely on that but sheesh, it's been a while since we really hit a home run.

Isn't that the LA Clipper's motto? 


For the past 20 years?  (or is it 30 years.  With the Clippers, who knows)

[Brickowski]

Ill tell you one thing, they are due for some luck in the draft. Not that a team can rely on that but sheesh, it's been a while since we really hit a home run.

Rondo was a home run, especially since they acquired the pick for nothing but cash.

[Greenbean]

Ill tell you one thing, they are due for some luck in the draft. Not that a team can rely on that but sheesh, it's been a while since we really hit a home run.

Isn't that the LA Clipper's motto? 


For the past 20 years?  (or is it 30 years.  With the Clippers, who knows)

Which is why I said "not that a team can rely on luck". It would be nice to get a player out of the draft. Yes Rondo was definitely a home run. Actually where is Phoenix picking this year? Let's buy their pick again to rekindle some luck.

[slamtheking]

Yes, I agree with most of your post, slamtheking.  What they need to do is get bad fast, not slowly.  It's like pulling off adhesive tape.

But will ownership buy into that?  It means that their revenues go South.  The marketing department has invested heavily in establishing the star status of the big three, even though they will never again play like stars. I never though I'd see the day when Garnett was completely dominated by Anderson Varejao.

The other thing you have to avoid is trading your expiring contracts for slightly younger veterans.  That strategy also prolongs the agony, and you never get under the cap. An examply would have been trading Ray for Antawn Jamison.

Lastly, you have to take a chance on flawed players, e.g. high picks who haven't really worked out, e.g. Michael Beasley, or players with character issues, e.g. Delonte West.

And yes, Doc Rivers is not the right coach for a young team. I'd kick Rivers upstairs and hire Bobby Knight if I could.  Or Ben Howland.  Or Lorenzo Romar.

I figured you were going for the "rip the bandaid off" approach.  If that's the way mgmt goes, better to go all in and start as much rebuilding as possible.  I can see the merits in that rather than watch this group of vets go into a freefall decline in KG's last year.

Next year this team is still a playoff team assuming Danny makes the anticipated resigning of Ray, Nate and either TA or Daniels.  I'm not sure that's the way to go anymore though.  As I watch them fade more and more into the pack of mediocre teams, I find myself wanting Danny to get the team into one of two acceptable (to me) states:
* legit championship contender OR
* team with young talent that's improving and providing some basis for optimism for the future.
He's unlikely to get this team back into a contender with the current assets so I'm mentally ready for a move to the other option at this point.  In any event, next year Danny's got to put a team on the floor that will play hard every game instead of this current team's mentality of coasting.  Coasting to the point where it's an excuse for losing is just intolerable.

[buzz]

Well, that scenario worked for the Celtics, but IMHO it is unrealistic to think that any team would give real value for Garnett or Pierce. Other teams have scouts who watch the Celtics.

Sure they would. Especially if we are taking on a bad contract in return.

Teams are bleeding cash right now. See who comes up on the market. We could definitely have a shot at a star player/prospect using a Rondo/Pierce package if we also take on a bad contract or two.

Like Chris Paul/Okafor... or Steph Curry/Maggette/Biedrins.

Teams could be clearing payroll for an impending sale. They could end up with a logjam based on who they get in the lottery. What does Utah do if they end up with John Wall?

Not really disagreeing with your Suck and Draft strategy per se, but there are other ways to get back to the mountaintop.

[Brickowski]

The problem of course is that a season ticket sold in 2011 is more valuable than one sold in 2014.

There are a number of good players 6-10 or better in the middle of this draft, including several international players.  There's this kid Veseley from Partizan Belgrade, Larry Sanders, Solomon Alabi (raw but huge) and so on.  I'd like Stanley Robinson too, if he could only make free throws.

Someone always slips, and as others have noted, Ainge is pretty good at drafting (except when it comes to international players).

[BballTim]

Let me respond to BBallTim: yes, 2015 is just to get decent.

But they are going to be in the toilet after 2012 no matter what they do, unless you think that extending the big three until they are in their late 30's is the way to go.

The Celtics will not make the playoffs in 2010-11 unless it's the 7th or 8th seed, and I hope you enjoy their role as cannon fodder for younger, more athletic teams.

  They'd still be no worse than 4th seed a year from now. And 2015 is very unrealistic. Right now they have Rondo, Perk (if wespend the money on him when we're disassembling the team) and Baby (if anyone views him as an asset). Next summer we'll have a draft pick in the mid 20s. If we let Ray expire the next year we might pick in the mid-late teens. The following year, KG's last, we might have a #10 pick or so.

  So we're going into the 2012-2013 season with Rondo, maybe Perk, a 3rd year player that was drafted in the 20s, a 2nd year player drafted in the teens and a rookie that's top ten or so. You're expecting to be a good team within 2 years starting with that? It's just as likely that we'll win the next two titles. What will happen, given your plan, is a 3-6(+) year at the bottom of the league where we have to hope that we score in the lottery and that there's a franchise player when we do. So that will give us a couple of lottery picks, a couple of decent role players that Danny''s picked up, and Rondo (who we'd probably trade for assets. THEN it will take a few years to become a good team.

  If we let all three of PP/RA/KG go and get nothing in return it will be the ML Carr/Rick Pitino years all over again. Killing off this team to get to the bottom of the league quicker is more enticing to you than it is to me.

[ssspence]

Well, that scenario worked for the Celtics, but IMHO it is unrealistic to think that any team would give real value for Garnett or Pierce. Other teams have scouts who watch the Celtics.

Sure they would. Especially if we are taking on a bad contract in return.

Teams are bleeding cash right now. See who comes up on the market. We could definitely have a shot at a star player/prospect using a Rondo/Pierce package if we also take on a bad contract or two.

Like Chris Paul/Okafor... or Steph Curry/Maggette/Biedrins.

Teams could be clearing payroll for an impending sale. They could end up with a logjam based on who they get in the lottery. What does Utah do if they end up with John Wall?

Not really disagreeing with your Suck and Draft strategy per se, but there are other ways to get back to the mountaintop.

They're two of the highest paid players in the league. Teams that need to cut payroll aren't going to be the trade partners for either Garnett or Pierce.

[mkogav]

I believe Danny's inability to flip Ray at the deadline really set the franchise back. I can't completely blame Danny b/c it takes two or three teams to get a big deal done. If he could have somehow landed Martin, Monte, or Butler then the future wouldn't be looking so bleak.

I believe Houston stole Martin from the Cs b/c they could offer Carl Landry and the Cs only BB & salary dump. That hurts. Both Houston and Boston had side deals with the Knicks to get Tmac to NYC & other assets/salaries lined up. I would have payed big $$$ to be in the Cs warroom on draft day.

Is it realistic that the Cs flip PP this offseason or next season? I would say 'no'. He is a lifetime Celtic and I expect him to sign an extension at some point.

So how does Danny refresh the talent on the Cs roster to a Championship level?

I have no idea. Trade KG? Maybe or maybe Rondo.

I am not sure if Danny believes Rondo is the cornerstone of the next Championship team. If the Cs had landed a young asset, Monte or whoever, at the deadline for Ray then it would be conceivable that they could resign PP, keep KC, and flip Rondo for a star quality player.

As it is, Danny has a difficult job ahead of him. I expect next year to be a complete mess. Ray walks, PP resigns, KG's a shadow of his former self, and Rondo leading the team to a 45 win season.

Mk

[buzz]

They're two of the highest paid players in the league. Teams that need to cut payroll aren't going to be the trade partners for either Garnett or Pierce.

If they are expiring and used to help relieve teams of their own bad contracts as part of the deal, why not?

[Brickowski]

But take back "bad contracts" of young players who still have potential, like Ellis and Biedrins, not guys like Butler and Jamison who are on the wrong side of 30.

I don't know whether or not Rondo will be the cornerstone of the next good Celtics team. He has his strengths and his flaws.  But if he is, you should be looking for players his age or younger, so they can grow up together.

[slamtheking]

They're two of the highest paid players in the league. Teams that need to cut payroll aren't going to be the trade partners for either Garnett or Pierce.

If they are expiring and used to help relieve teams of their own bad contracts as part of the deal, why not?

But if the C's are a team looking for good youth, draft picks and/or cap flexibility, why would they take on another team's bad contracts?  They won't be contenders looking for that missing piece to put them over the top.  They'll be looking for assets, not someone else's crud.