Ray Allen's three point shooting

[PLamb]

Is it now safe to say that Ray Allen's three point shot problems are no longer just a slump?

Is it now safe to start questioning that Ray's three point shot might be showing signs of age?

Is it now safe to start thinking that Ray Allen's days of close to or over 40% shooting from three point range could be over?

I have brought this up before about the rapid decline of shooting guards as they age and two things are ALWAYS the first to go, defense and long distance shooting

Well Ray has never been a great defender and there have been flashes of really good defense from Ray but overall his defense is about what it has been or maybe slightly worse

But it's time to face facts here, Ray Allen's three point shot is seriously struggling this year

Let's take a look at the numbers:

October:        8-17   .471
November: 14-56   .250
December: 30-76   .395
January:      22-69   .319
February:    23-65   .354
March:           8-24   .333

Total:      105-307   .342


Just so that everyone has the facts in front of them here are Ray's three point percentages for his career

96-97   .393
97-98   .364
98-99   .356
99-00   .423
00-01   .433
01-02   .434
02-03   .377
03-04   .392
04-05   .376
05-06   .412
06-07   .372
07-08   .398
08-09   .409
09-10   .342

This year's numbers are the worst he has ever shot from three point range and they come at a time when he is completely healthy and playing with more weapons than he has ever played with in his entire career making defenses keying only on stopping him difficult to do

His numbers this year are now a full 5 percentage points below his career average

And if you have watched him shoot this year it's clear he has been way off often not only short and long but just off target which he has almost never been in his career

I know, not news everyone wants to be hearing during these tough times but maybe if Danny doesn't re-sign Ray this off season, this could be a reason why

The signs are there

Age may just be setting in because I don't think we can call this a slump any more

[Drucci]

I don't know, it seems to me that Ray is more streaky than before. Maybe a quick statistical research would confirm my thoughts (or deny them) but I have the impression that there are games where Ray can't miss from three and others where he can't make any three pointer (like against Memphis).

For example, Ray went 4/6 from three against Washington and 0/6 against Memphis while, basically, all the shots he took from there were equivalent (and almost all wide open).

And what strikes me too is that when Ray has a game where he can't miss a shot from midrange, he is struggling from three, and vice versa.

I think he is starting to decline but not as much as you claim he is. Obviously next season will be worse in terms of 3FG% but this season his 3 point game has not fallen that much.

[Roy Hobbs]

I'm not sure what it is with Ray.  I agree with Drucci that he seems to go through longer streaks than in the past.  I'm not sure if that's physical or mental.  I don't think he's "lost" his shot, and wouldn't be surprised to see him around 37% - 40% next season.  However, this year has been all over the place.

[Greenbean]

Maybe Ray's days of playing 35+ minutes AND being a great 3pt shooter are over. Maybe it's time to reduce minutes and become a deadly 6th man.

[papa shuttlesworth]

First, I think that Ray's shooting has been off this year and it could be a sign of age catching up to him, but a few weeks of hot shooting will bring up his average to a more respectable number (although still off from his career average).

Sorry to mix sports, but here are Kevin Youkilis' batting averages:

2007 - Pre All-Star .328, Post All-Star .238, Season .288
2008 - Pre All-Star .314, Post All-Star .310, Season .312
2009 - Pre All-Star .298, Post All-Star .314, Season .305

From this we can see a few things:
1) Only in 2008 was his average at any point in time consistent with his historic average
2) Sometimes he is on a tear, other times he stinks, but he always averages out to be decent
3) Sometimes he gets hot in the beginning of the season, sometimes at the end.

I think you could look at any shooter in the NBA and find similar patterns.

Ray Allen has always had hot months and cold months, but has historically been very consistent (and good).  Without having watched all his games in Milwaukee and Seattle, it is easy to just look at his season average and not realize that there were months where he was way way off (up or down) from that average.

Regression to the mean!

[ManUp]

I've been saying this for almost the entire season. Sure he's been shooting a lot better lately, but I'm not quite sure it's something he can maintain. It's great that he's been so effective going to the basket, but his real value with us is and always has been his shooting. Also Ray was a much better shooter before he joined the Celtics than he is now. Back then there's no way he would be shooting below 40% with the quality of looks hes getting now.

[papa shuttlesworth]

No, I agree with you.  I just wanted to use some numbers and show that it is not the end of the world.  A few 4/4 from 3 games and his percentage will be more respectable.  Did it a few times last spring.

I think as he (or players in general) gets older the hot and cold streaks get longer and longer and may last as much season.



Either that or it is Rasheed's fault.

[PLamb]

No, I agree with you.  I just wanted to use some numbers and show that it is not the end of the world.  A few 4/4 from 3 games and his percentage will be more respectable.  Did it a few times last spring.

I think as he (or players in general) gets older the hot and cold streaks get longer and longer and may last as much season.



Either that or it is Rasheed's fault.

Just so that we are clear with just how off his three point shooting percentage is, Ray Allen would need to make 28 straight three pointers just to get his career three point percentage where it was when the season started

We aren't talking a couple of 4 for 4 nights and he'll be okay

Over three quarters of the season is over

This isn't like baseball where after the All-Star break you still have 300 ABs

This is like baseball where you are in very late August and it will take an unbelievable streak of over two weeks of hitting over .400 just to get your batting average up 10-15 points

[CelticG1]

If he goes through a little streak of hot 3 point shooting won't those numbers jump up a bit? If this was the end of the season you'd have a better point but it's not so you can't really say this yet. I'm sure Ray has been shooting poorly up to this point in the season in other years as well. He's not a 2-5 3 point shooter every game. He's a 5-5 0-6 3-9 kind of 3 point shooter.

Even if Ray has a career worst 3 point shooting this year it would have to be real low for me to think that he is not an elite shooter anymore. Isn't he like in the top 5 for 2 point fg percentage this year?

[PLamb]

If he goes through a little streak of hot 3 point shooting won't those numbers jump up a bit? If this was the end of the season you'd have a better point but it's not so you can't really say this yet. I'm sure Ray has been shooting poorly up to this point in the season in other years as well. He's not a 2-5 3 point shooter every game. He's a 5-5 0-6 3-9 kind of 3 point shooter.

Even if Ray has a career worst 3 point shooting this year it would have to be real low for me to think that he is not an elite shooter anymore. Isn't he like in the top 5 for 2 point fg percentage this year?

I never once said he wasn't an elite shooter or was falling off in his two point shooting

Not once

His true shooting percentage is as good as it has ever been as currently it's his third highest he's had in the last 8 years

As a matter of fact I argued for Ray still being a great shooter in another thread when someone said he wasn't anymore

But his three point shooting and lack of accuracy shows a decrease in his range and when so much of his shot is predicated upon his legs, if the legs are whats going, the shot might never come back

Remember how he went from unreal shooter in the Chicago series last year to horrible against Orlando, it was because he "tweaked" his hamstring

If his legs aren't right, Ray's long distance shooting isn't right and if Ray's long distance shooting isn't as deadly, it causes problems for the Celtics spacing and their offensive efficacy as a whole


As a what the hell let's see what happens if, Ray Allen averages around 400 three point attempts a year

He has a little over a month left so let's say he gets to shoot another 93 three pointers this year and gets to 400

To get to 37% shooting for the year which is still seriously below his career average of 39.5% Ray would need to make 43 of 93 three pointers or shoot 46.2% on threes the rest of the year

Over the last nine years Ray has shot over 46.2% in a month 5 times

Can he do it....yes

Is it rare....yes

And if he does it what does that do to his yearly three point shooting numbers...it makes them less bad is all

37% shooting from three point range for Ray Allen is not good and again to do that he has to do something he's only done 5 times over the last 9 years

[housecall]

Ray is a rhythm shooter...the team's offense hasn't exactly allowed him to develop it for long periods this season.

[PLamb]

Ray's shooting is based a lot of rhythm...i feel this season's slippage of his three point shooting is due to the team's offense not clinking with the same rhythm as in the past.He had developed a rhythm with KG,Paul,Rondo and Perk in 07-2008 & this past season.The Big 3 hasn't been on the court together for long enough stretches for him to get on track the way he has in the past seasons.I don't feel age is the primary reason.   

This quintet has played almost 50 games together this year and a bunch more in seasons past

If he can't get into a rhythm in 50 games playing with guys he's been playing with regularly for 2 1/2 years, he isn't going to

I think the rhythm argument is just wrong

[housecall]

Ray's shooting is based a lot of rhythm...i feel this season's slippage of his three point shooting is due to the team's offense not clinking with the same rhythm as in the past.He had developed a rhythm with KG,Paul,Rondo and Perk in 07-2008 & this past season.The Big 3 hasn't been on the court together for long enough stretches for him to get on track the way he has in the past seasons.I don't feel age is the primary reason.   

This quintet has played almost 50 games together this year and a bunch more in seasons past

If he can't get into a rhythm in 50 games playing with guys he's been playing with regularly for 2 1/2 years, he isn't going to

I think the rhythm argument is just wrong

Ray,KG and Pierce have played 50games together this season but it hasn't been an offense with a lot of smooth flow to it either ...also i didn't say anything about last couple seasons being a problem.I thought he did alright the last few seasons.

Also,if you have played basketball yourself,you know there are players that play much better when they are in a rhythm,and Ray is one of those players.

[fanofgreen]

As far as Ray and his 3pt numbers, no doubt age may be playing a factor, but I definetly do not thing its the only factor, or even the biggest factor.

In regards to Rays numbers over his career, remember, he was the #1 guy on those Miluakee and Seattle team, so he had the ball in his hands probably 2x 0r 3x as much as he has had now as a celtic.

So he always had a feel for the ball, the entire game, which is critical for a scorer. And even more critical for a scorer who is a shooter.  (ex. a scorer=AI) (a shooter=Kapono) (a scorer who is a shooter=Ray Ray)

I see the numbers and all, but my thing is, its no secret, or surprise the most people see and believe that Ray Allen has been the most consistent of the Big 3, over the past 3 years, till now.

So I'm almost wondering, if Ray's "streaky shooting" being a topic of concern,  is more of a result of Paul and KG's decline,Thus Ray Allens game is now sticking out, more than ever before  and less of Ray all of a sudden being very streaky.

To me Ray has been consistent since he's been in Green. and by consistent I mean; he's always gone thru stretches of being streaky and his play has seemed to be at a similar level each year...

Ex.
Ray making the All-Star team for the last 3 years wouldn't raise any eyebrows.

Paul Pierce making the All-Star team the last 3 years wouldn't raise any eyebrows, but questions might arise about this years trip to dallas.

KG making the All-star team the last 3 years, the last 2 years would defintely raise a few eyebrows. (of course one was due to injury)

So I think Ray Allens isn't necessarily dropping off on a steep decline, but I think he is more noticeable now, because those around him (pp-kg) are declining at a faster rate than Ray.

[Boris Badenov]

I find this very informative. Here are Ray's 3 point shooting percentages based on rest:

0 days  27.5%
1 day   35.7%
2 days  34.3%
3+ days 38.7%

In fact, there is a pretty clear pattern with his shooting and energy numbers:

         FG%    FT%    SPG   BPG  
0 days  44.3%   81%   0.62   0.15
1 day   46.7%   91%   0.71   0.29
2 days  50.0%   89%   1.17   0.33
3+ days 51.2%  100%   1.00   0.43

Despite this, he still averages 36 minutes on back-to-backs (and all other games). I'd like to see his numbers by quarter in the back to backs - if they are lower at the end of games, the solution seems simple: play him less, especially in back to backs!