What is Ray Allen worth next year?

[PLamb]

I don't get the reasoning of some people.  Given the cap situation, your choice of a roster spot is Ray Allen signed at something above the MLE for 2-3 years or a vet minimum player.  Using the MLE is independent of that choice.

I do think Ray Allen wants financial security and stability for what he expects to be his last major contract.  If he hits the free agent market, he runs the risk of being forced to sign for the MLE or worse when he could be, at worse, the third-best player on a lot of teams out there.

Hypothetically, let's say his value is $10 million/year for the next two years.  I think Ray Allen would be willing to sign for less (but not an outright insulting offer) to stay in Boston and have a deal done early so that he doesn't have to founder on the market waiting for all the big name players to sign before teams turn to him as Plan C or D.

Here's the thing though, you even state that his market is probably the MLE

So if that is probably the tops what he will see out on the market(which I think is low, I think someone will have some left over cap space above MLE level yet below the max that will give Ray and offer), why should the C's pay more

$10 million a year for a 35 year old SG, a position that history shows will probably have his production fall off precipitously in the very near and foreseeable future at that age, is way too much

[DavorCroatiaFan]

Financial stability? He's earned 139 milions dolars from basketball alone, plus commercials and other deals...He's not jerk like 'Toine. If he wanna play for title, e should settle for 12mil/2years. I love Ray, but at 36 he's not worth more.

[LooseCannon]

Here's the thing though, you even state that his market is probably the MLE

Not quite.  I state that the future is uncertain.  The worst-case scenario is probably a MLE-level contract.  It's not sure if he can get more, but I think he would take a discount from what he might get in order to get a deal with multiple years at above the MLE done early.

So if that is probably the tops what he will see out on the market(which I think is low, I think someone will have some left over cap space above MLE level yet below the max that will give Ray and offer), why should the C's pay more

Sometimes, if you offer a player a reasonable contract, it might encourage him to skip testing the market and seeing what someone else will pay him.  If you have an accurate estimate of what Ray Allen can get as a free agent, it is possible you can sign him to a contract below that by getting an early offer in before he starts talking to other teams.  So the question is, if Danny Ainge wants to re-sign Ray Allen, is he smart enough to guess what sort of offers RA will get and to make an offer that is low enough to give the Celtics a discount from market value but high enough to not come off as an offensive lowball offer? 

I think this is different from Jame Posey or Leon Powe being allowed to leave in that Ray Allen is clearly superior to the alternatives for next year.

$10 million a year for a 35 year old SG, a position that history shows will probably have his production fall off precipitously in the very near and foreseeable future at that age, is way too much

$10 million was a hypothetical figure, just to give a number to work with.  I was originally going to do some actual math, but cut out that section.

I'm not sure what the next CBA will look like, but I think that it probably strategically valuable to structure any new Ray Allen contract to A)minimize luxury tax payments and B) have the last year be an amount that makes him a doable trade for a player signed to a MLE contract plus a player signed to a mid-first round rookie scale contact.  It may be worth it to overpay somewhat on value if it makes his contract a better trade asset.

[billysan]

3 years. 10/8/6 with the third a team option is my prediction.

IMO we will trade KG as an expiring cap space conract and having the contracts expire together will be a moot point anyway. Especially with the condition of the #5 knee.

[Jon]

Ultimately, I don't care what they pay Ray as long as it

a) doesn't compromise their ability to use the MLE

b) doesn't exceed KG's contract (meaning two years)

Other than that, we as fans should probably leave his worth to Danny, Wyc, and Ray.  I mean who cares if he's only worth 6 million and they pay him 10 million if the two issues above are satisfied? 

Ultimately, though I think the C's might ultimately be able to coerce him into some sort of 6-7 million a year contract because I don't think he gets more than the MLE (he may get a larger offer for 1 year by a team that misses out on the big free agents).  However, it may be in the interest of the C's just to offer him 8-9 million as a sign of respect and to avoid any bad feelings that might hold over into next season. 

[dark_lord]

a lot of ray's value will be determined on how he finishes the season and how he performs in the post season.

[Greeny]

I would be glad to see this quiet assassin retire as a Celtic.
He will always be green in my eyes if it is only 3 years.

He is a proven veteran and professional.
100% class.

[BballTim]

If the team drafted Courtney Lee instead of Giddens, he wouldn't have gotten the opportunity to develop like he did in Orlando. He wouldn't have gotten the minutes or the role/responsibilities. Not with Ray Allen around.

Likewise, with Ray here, the team wasn't searching for cheap talent through trades to fill that position. So they missed out on players like Thabo Sefolosha and Arron Afflalo.

Or buying draft picks like the Rockets or the Blazers and trying to find gems late in the first and early in the second round.

If the Celtics sign Ray to a contract, they then commit to doing everything possible to give the Big Three one last shot at a ring. That means signing the player who can offer the most to the team in short window. The best current talent who fits the team. Not the guy who is going to be the best player a few years down the road.

If the Celtics sign Ray + spend their MLE, they will then have reduced cap flexibility. Makes it far less likely that they sign another MLE player the following season. That will be two summers in a row where they'll have passed up an opportunity to add younger talent.

It creates a different dynamic. Keeping Ray vs letting him leave.

  I just don't see a big enough upside from moving on. We're not going to get a high draft pick with Paul/KG/Rajon/Perk and I don't see us getting any real building blocks with the MLE, or by developing a mid-late draft pick in Ray's spot. Unless KG isn't going to improve at all I'd rather try to win a title when he's here and still effective than have a Courtney Lee or a Thabo Sefolosha or an Arron Afflalo on the roster when he's done.