What is Ray Allen worth next year?

[BudweiserCeltic]

Restricted free-agency and having only the MLE really ties our hands on which "young talent" we might add. Again, not adding Ray and looking towards the future will have minimal impact at the moment. It would be a different thing if we still had some of our young guys or have someone like Lee in our roster to develop. But we don't. We'll see how the draft goes, and we may luck out. But, if we luck out, maybe a 1 year Ray Allen stint might still be preferable.

But at the moment, adding young talent worth developing is quite slim. So you might be better off trying to contend as well as you can while keeping an eye on building the future. That's Danny's job. If he chooses to put all his eggs in one basket that it will be his problem to solve, but there's no reason why keeping Ray should prevent him from looking towards the future. And again, Ray at a 8-12 million short contract should be still quite attractive to some and it might just land us the young talent you're looking to develop.

Just saying that it's not quite clear that not signing Ray Allen is actually the best move one can make even if your sole motivation is positioning yourself for the future.

[Who]

I was thinking about the Spurs the other day and what possibilities they have to improve their team.

I was comparing Ray Allen's situation this year to Richard Jefferson's expiring contract next season ... and I was looking at what type of incentives the Spurs could add to a trade. Players like DeJuan Blair and George Hill. The draft rights to Tiago Splitter. As well as future draft picks.

Those young players give San Antonio so much more flexibility in the trade market + in choosing how they rebuild their team.

The Celtics have one, possibly two, foundation blocks to their team down the road in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. Outside of those guys, the roster is bare. No other players that may be key rotation players for that team, or possibly more. No guys that can be used as incentives in a trade when coupled with expiring contracts.

If the Celtics sign Ray Allen + best veteran talent with their MLE ... how different is their situation going to be from this season? In 2010/11? In 2011/12? And from 2012 forwards? Are they going to have enough young assets to create promising trade packages? Are they going to have young players that can play alongside Perk + Rondo?

[Who]

Just saying that it's not quite clear that not signing Ray Allen is actually the best move one can make even if your sole motivation is positioning yourself for the future.

Agreed

[wdleehi]

It really depends on how the rest of the season and post season goes.


But no matter what, would not sign him past two years. 

[BudweiserCeltic]

I was thinking about the Spurs the other day and what possibilities they have to improve their team.

I was comparing Ray Allen's situation this year to Richard Jefferson's expiring contract next season ... and I was looking at what type of incentives the Spurs could add to a trade. Players like DeJuan Blair and George Hill. The draft rights to Tiago Splitter. As well as future draft picks.

Those young players give San Antonio so much more flexibility in the trade market + in choosing how they rebuild their team.

The Celtics have one, possibly two, foundation blocks to their team down the road in Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. Outside of those guys, the roster is bare. No other players that may be key rotation players for that team, or possibly more. No guys that can be used as incentives in a trade when coupled with expiring contracts.

If the Celtics sign Ray Allen + best veteran talent with their MLE ... how different is their situation going to be from this season? In 2010/11? In 2011/12? And from 2012 forwards? Are they going to have enough young assets to create promising trade packages? Are they going to have young players that can play alongside Perk + Rondo?

And if we don't sign Ray Allen, how does that improve on us getting young talent? It really doesn't much. That's why I say the impact will be quite minimal, so you're better off trying to content with the amount of talent we have in my opinion.

As you say, we're currently depleted. And we don't have to go for a full-on veteran with the MLE. We just got Daniels with the bi-annual, and he's a pretty young guy. In fact, I really do think that Danny is going to look for young people regardless of Allen being here or not. Of course, if a veteran that one can't just pass on for the money comes along, you take it, but I think Danny will be looking young regardless at the moment. He started the movement by going after Nate and trying to trade Ray for younger pieces, so Danny has that in mind.

So I think you can do both in my opinion.

I think the key in all of this is 1-2 year contracts regardless. In two years we'll be in a great position to retool, so I'm really not worried about starting the process just now.

[jambr380]

I guess I am with everyone else who says he should get between 8-10 mill at two years. We still have another competitive team next year and the year after we will have some killer expirings in KG, Ray, and Sheed and we can really retool then if we want to. I think a third year for Ray is out of the question.

[Fafnir]

It really depends on how the rest of the season and post season goes.


But no matter what, would not sign him past two years. 

Yeah I don't want to see the team committing salary beyond KG's deal.

[ssspence]

as noted it depends on the rets of the year, but I'd bet they offer him a one year deal with an option considering the pending CBA...

[Fafnir]

as noted it depends on the rets of the year, but I'd bet they offer him a one year deal with an option considering the pending CBA...

If they really believe there will be a lockout, I think they'll offer him a second year.

[ssspence]

as noted it depends on the rets of the year, but I'd bet they offer him a one year deal with an option considering the pending CBA...

If they really believe there will be a lockout, I think they'll offer him a second year.

is it a given that if there's a lockout, the players will not be paid on existing contracts? i believe a court ruled this in the owners favor during the last one?

[Fafnir]

as noted it depends on the rets of the year, but I'd bet they offer him a one year deal with an option considering the pending CBA...

If they really believe there will be a lockout, I think they'll offer him a second year.

is it a given that if there's a lockout, the players will not be paid on existing contracts? i believe a court ruled this in the owners favor during the last one?

Yes, if there is a lockout they don't have to pay the players.

[P2]

At age 35 (!), he is worth not a penny more than the MLE, and I will be disappointed if he gets $20M for 3 years.

[PLamb]

If we sign Ray Allen next year, big if there, it should be on a two year deal with the 2nd year being partially guaranteed but easily guaranteed fully through attaining certain goals in the first year

The contract as a whole shouldn't be more than $12-14 million for the 2 years

But what I would do is negotiate with him during the off season, let the money flow elsewhere for a while and when teams have used their cap space do a sign and trade with Ray to get some talent

Of course Ray is pretty smart and will probably just go sign elsewhere if he sees Boston dragging their feet though

[ssspence]

If we sign Ray Allen next year, big if there, it should be on a two year deal with the 2nd year being partially guaranteed but easily guaranteed fully through attaining certain goals in the first year

The contract as a whole shouldn't be more than $12-14 million for the 2 years

But what I would do is negotiate with him during the off season, let the money flow elsewhere for a while and when teams have used their cap space do a sign and trade with Ray to get some talent

Of course Ray is pretty smart and will probably just go sign elsewhere if he sees Boston dragging their feet though

I see Ray taking a pretty serious discount to sign with Boston, particularly if we offer him more than a year. Who is going to pay Ray $8-10mil a year for more than one year? Which team?

[Brendan]

I'd go three years on a lower contract if need be. Getting him at 7 makes sense - and I think he can instantly be rejuvenated by moving to the bench and playing less minutes. I actually think the ideal move might be moving Pierce to the bench using him as a super 6th man.

Anyways even in rebuild mode - Ray Allen at 6-10 range is a good cnotract. Plenty of teams will be in a situation where (assuming the C's are done trying to contend) a Ray Allen could put them over the top.  Basically old Pierce and old Ray Allen could be the billionaire's version of Posey and House on the 2008 team.

Let's say things fall apart next year, KG is not playing - etc. You could push Pierce in the kind of deal people suggested for Ray Allen (btw - I'd hate this with my heart, but just for thought exp.) Then you could move Ray Allen and Sheed or Ray Allen and Robinson (if they resign him for 4.. Ray + Sheed is a managable trade at about 15 million annual, with a 1.5 years of sheed and 1.5 - 2.5 years of Ray Allen (and a half year lockout.)

You'd only have KG, Rondo (and presumably Perk.) Assuming KG recovers - he might even take a cheap buyout to go somewhere that matters after everyone is dumped. You'd tank the rest of the season in 2011 - and hope to get something good in the draft. Plus you'd be way under the cap even with holds etc. Not sure who the free agents are that season.

I think its pretty unlikely Ray goes elsewhere - he can pretty much only hope to get the MLE, so the list of places he'd go is probably only contenders with the MLE to spare.