Celtics' Situation vs The Heat's a Few Years Back

[Redz]

I was just looking at the "Blow Up the C's" thread (or threads) and started thinking that the only thing that makes this scenario different from the Heat's in 2007-2008 is that the Celts a little bit better, and they're the team I root for.

I'm not advocating a "blow up", but the situations do have similarities.  The championship Heat team was brought to elite status suddenly with the trade for Shaq.  Yes, they did make it to the Conference Finals with an overachieving, and likable, team, but they were nowhere near a championship team as they were constituted.  The year following their Tite they were swept out of the first round by the Bulls.  The next year the bottom fell out and Shaq was sent packing to Phoenix.

Compare the situation to the Celtics.

First Year:  Drastic changes with super stars added and an instant championship.

2nd Year:  Banged up.  2nd round elimination.

3rd Year:  Bottom falling out?  Blow up the team?

I think the Celtics have been better teams than any of the Heat teams at any stage of the process, but the end results may end up mirroring each other.

Oh...and then there's that James Posey part too. 

[PosImpos]

I was just looking at the "Blow Up the C's" thread (or threads) and started thinking that the only thing that makes this scenario different from the Heat's in 2007-2008 is that the Celts a little bit better, and they're the team I root for.

I'm not advocating a "blow up", but the situations do have similarities.  The championship Heat team was brought to elite status suddenly with the trade for Shaq.  Yes, they did make it to the Conference Finals with an overachieving, and likable, team, but they were nowhere near a championship team as they were constituted.  The year following their Tite they were swept out of the first round by the Bulls.  The next year the bottom fell out and Shaq was sent packing to Phoenix.

Compare the situation to the Celtics.

First Year:  Drastic changes with super stars added and an instant championship.

2nd Year:  Banged up.  2nd round elimination.

3rd Year:  Bottom falling out?  Blow up the team?

I think the Celtics have been better teams than any of the Heat teams at any stage of the process, but the end results may end up mirroring each other.

Oh...and then there's that James Posey part too. 

Even if your comparison is valid and the C's are following a similar trajectory, I don't think we have the luxury of following their game plan.  The Heat have set themselves up to retain Wade and then sign some free agents this summer, instantly putting them back into contention. 

We don't have a young superstar, and we're not a hot free agent destination, so we can't just set ourselves up to have a huge summer in free agency.  Our only way to rebuild will be through the draft or smart trades for young talent.  Danny's gonna have to be very smart / crafty and have a good eye for talent that other people don't see. 

[Redz]

I was just looking at the "Blow Up the C's" thread (or threads) and started thinking that the only thing that makes this scenario different from the Heat's in 2007-2008 is that the Celts a little bit better, and they're the team I root for.

I'm not advocating a "blow up", but the situations do have similarities.  The championship Heat team was brought to elite status suddenly with the trade for Shaq.  Yes, they did make it to the Conference Finals with an overachieving, and likable, team, but they were nowhere near a championship team as they were constituted.  The year following their Tite they were swept out of the first round by the Bulls.  The next year the bottom fell out and Shaq was sent packing to Phoenix.

Compare the situation to the Celtics.

First Year:  Drastic changes with super stars added and an instant championship.

2nd Year:  Banged up.  2nd round elimination.

3rd Year:  Bottom falling out?  Blow up the team?

I think the Celtics have been better teams than any of the Heat teams at any stage of the process, but the end results may end up mirroring each other.

Oh...and then there's that James Posey part too. 

Even if your comparison is valid and the C's are following a similar trajectory, I don't think we have the luxury of following their game plan.  The Heat have set themselves up to retain Wade and then sign some free agents this summer, instantly putting them back into contention. 

We don't have a young superstar, and we're not a hot free agent destination, so we can't just set ourselves up to have a huge summer in free agency.  Our only way to rebuild will be through the draft or smart trades for young talent.  Danny's gonna have to be very smart / crafty and have a good eye for talent that other people don't see. 

Yeh, it's a loose thread tying the two, but I was thinking more of a trajectory sort of view, than a logistical one.

[Who]

I don't think the Celtics blow this up until 2012. Nor should they.

This team is too close to another title. Shouldn't be discarded.

[Redz]

I don't think the Celtics blow this up until 2012. Nor should they.

This team is too close to another title. Shouldn't be discarded.

I agree who, I was just trying to think of a precedent of something similar happening.

[Mr October]

I don't think the Celtics blow this up until 2012. Nor should they.

This team is too close to another title. Shouldn't be discarded.

Agreed. Until KG's 21 million comes off the books in 2012, the Celtics can't 'blow things up'. During the interim the C's should keep riding this team out, with tweaks here and there.

The present should only be blown up if you can land the next great big man, and i dont see that happening just yet.

[Who]

I don't think the Celtics blow this up until 2012. Nor should they.

This team is too close to another title. Shouldn't be discarded.

I agree who, I was just trying to think of a precedent of something similar happening.

Miami benefited greatly from playing terrible basketball the season after they lost to the Bulls in the first round. The year they won only 15 games. That horrific period created opportunities both with their high lottery pick + making it easier in deciding it was time to blow up their roster and to try to rebuild through free agency (since they had no trade assets, their only other method of acquiring talent was free agency).

The Celtics don't have that type of clear answer and I'm doubtful that they ever will. I expect more of a gradual decline where Boston goes from contending for a title to mediocrity. Then arrives the summer of 2012 and if all is well the Celtics should try retooling on the run then.

No drastic rebuilding process ... but also no opportunities to build another contender as good as Miami had with Wade + high lottery pick + free agency opportunities.

It's going to be harder for Boston because it won't get as ugly as it did for Miami. That is why the situations are different.

[dlpin]

I don't think the Celtics blow this up until 2012. Nor should they.

This team is too close to another title. Shouldn't be discarded.

I agree completely. And even if we're not close to another title, it's too late to blow it up for this year's draft and free agent class, and there isn't anyone of note either in the draft in 2011 or in free agency. 2012 is the next big free agency summer, with Durant, Horford, and so on.

[Who]

Rajon Rondo and Perkins give the Celtics a youthful foundation to work off of once the Big Three depart.

Also, because while Rondo and Perk are good building blocks they simply aren't as good as an MVP talent like Kobe Bryant (Lakers post Shaq) or Dwyane Wade (Miami after Shaq).

That makes this squad's rebuilding process different to just about every recent title winning side (last 20 years -- Lakers, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, Lakers, Heat, Celtics, Lakers).

There are no good comparisons vs other title winning sides. It might be better to look at contenders who failed to win a title. That might supply more ideas + better comparisons.

[greg683x]

the heat also lucked out by having someone take shaq off their hands,  I don't think there's anyone who would want to take on the rest of KGs contract.

[rondohondo]

the heat also lucked out by having someone take shaq off their hands,  I don't think there's anyone who would want to take on the rest of KGs contract.

maybe not KG ,but PP  + Rasheed could easily be moved. Let Ray's contract expire and get expiring and picks or young players with good potential for PP + Sheed. C's would have just about enough to add a max player.

[PosImpos]

Rajon Rondo and Perkins give the Celtics a youthful foundation to work off of once the Big Three depart.

Also, because while Rondo and Perk are good building blocks they simply aren't as good as an MVP talent like Kobe Bryant (Lakers post Shaq) or Dwyane Wade (Miami after Shaq).

That makes this squad's rebuilding process different to just about every recent title winning side (last 20 years -- Lakers, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, Lakers, Heat, Celtics, Lakers).

There are no good comparisons vs other title winning sides. It might be better to look at contenders who failed to win a title. That might supply more ideas + better comparisons.

The main problem for us is most of the time the team that wins the title has a MVP caliber superstar, as you pointed out.  We only sort of had one of those when we won it all; it was more like 3 used-to-be superstars still playing at a very high level on a team with good pieces around them playing very good team basketball.

By 2012, those 3 used-to-be superstars won't even be All-Star caliber anymore; they may not even be starter level players.  It's hard to say.  Our rebuilding process will have to center around two players who were complementary players in '08 when we won it all, and that's what makes it so difficult for us moving forward.

The Pistons are probably the best comparison, and we all have seen how awful a job Dumars has done with that so far.

[Who]

(1) New York with Houston + Sprewell + Camby after Patrick Ewing

(2) Indiana after Smits + Davis + Jackson + Mullin (Jermaine + Artest)

(3) Utah with Kirilenko after Stockton + Malone

(4) Miami after Alonzo/Hardaway and Co. left

(5) Seattle after Gary Payton + Vin Baker

-------------------------------------------------

Indiana traded away their old talent for younger prospects and grew into another contender. Traded Antonio Davis for a lottery pick that became Jonthan Bender. Traded Dale Davis for Jermaine O'Neal. Trade Jalen Rose for Artest, Mercer and Miller. Drafted Tinsley late in the first. Drafted Harrington late in the first prior to rebuilding. Acquired Foster (draft? Warriors pick? I forget)

Utah tried to retool on the run by gaining cap space and then going out and signing Boozer + Okur to go along with Kirilenko. They also had one bad season (26 wins) in between that earned them Deron Williams (their best player today).

Miami suffered through two poor seasons and got Butler + Wade in the draft. Then signed Odom. Then engineered a trade for Shaq to turn them into a contender.

New York kept their building blocks. Never grew cap space. Traded away Ewing, got unlucky with the McDyess injury, and didn't get much out of their draft picks. Their rebuilding process never got off the ground. Then they went for a risky building through trades without rebuilding strategy which backfired.

Seattle traded an old star (Payton) for a young star (Ray) to combine with another young start (Rashard Lewis) and built an outside contender for a title. Then made some bad decisions and broke up their contender.

Most of the other teams I can think of went through a full rebuilding process, or close to it, where they became a very poor team and rebuilt their roster through the draft.

[Who]

the heat also lucked out by having someone take shaq off their hands,  I don't think there's anyone who would want to take on the rest of KGs contract.

maybe not KG ,but PP  + Rasheed could easily be moved. Let Ray's contract expire and get expiring and picks or young players with good potential for PP + Sheed. C's would have just about enough to add a max player.

Agreed, the Heat did what the Celtics could do and that's to trade away their old star to contender for an expiring contracts or near expiring contract (2011).

Shaq had two and a half seasons left on his deal like Garnett does. And Marion had one a half seasons on his deal (like Richard Jefferson does).

I think the Celtics could trade Garnett to a contender. Cleveland and San Antonio would both be interested. Dallas would be tempted also.

[Who]

The Pistons are probably the best comparison, and we all have seen how awful a job Dumars has done with that so far.

I think I was too quick to rule out the Bad Boys -- although that was not a smooth rebuilding process -- I was thinking of Isiah, Laimbeer and Mahorn ... but they still had Joe Dumars and Dennis Rodman when their window ended in 1991 or 1992. You could argue that is somewhat comparable to having a Rondo + Perkins.

Then the Pistons traded Rodman for a perceived star (Elliott) which didn't work out ... and were unable to make any big moves in free agency or other trades (solid acquisitions but no big names). Instead, they had to rebuild through the draft with Lindsey Hunter + Allan Houston + Grant Hill + Theo Ratliff. Then acquired Otis Thorpe.

Their franchise didn't take off in the right direction again until they landed Grant Hill. That MVP type player.