Author Topic: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list  (Read 17754 times)

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Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« on: February 09, 2010, 12:42:03 PM »

Offline ssspence

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It's on insider, but thought I'd post this along with a couple of highlights since it discusses players and a GM that's talked about here frequently:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-100209

Here are a few clips:

Overrated: Kirk Hinrich

I get about 20 e-mail questions a day about Hinrich, which might make sense if he had made a basket at any time in the last month. He is making more than $9 million this season and is shooting 37.7 percent, leaving me scratching my head wondering why fans of other teams still clamor for him.

It's not like this season is some dramatic outlier -- he's shot 41.3 percent for his career. His PERs the past three seasons are 13.41, 13.97 and 10.24, and, I repeat, he makes an average salary of $9 million a year -- not just this year, but next year, and the year after that, when he's 31. Sure, he's an accomplished wing defender, and that has value. But do you really want to kill your team's cap/tax situation by paying this guy star money to shoot bricks and play defense when similar players can be found for a fraction of the price?

Overrated: Monta Ellis

Ellis is almost the perfect prototype of an overrated player: He's a low-efficiency player who plays a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, so he ends up with gaudy per-game averages even though he's not advancing his team's cause much.

For starters, take the air out of his Golden State-generated stats and you're dealing with a much less impressive résumé. Ellis averages 26.2 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league and at first glance seems very impressive. But once you adjust for his league-leading 41.7 minutes per game and the hyper pace the Warriors play at, his scoring numbers look much more ordinary. On a per-minute basis, he's not even the best scorer on his own team -- that would be Corey Maggette.

Moreover, if you look at pace-adjusted points per minute, Ellis isn't 6th ... or even 16th. He ranks a mere 18th, placing behind former teammates Jamal Crawford and Al Harrington, among others.

Meanwhile, his efficiency numbers are brutal. Ellis ranks in the bottom half of shooting guards in true shooting percentage, but what's worse is that he doesn't create offense for others. Among shooting guards who have played at least 1,000 minutes, only one -- Denver's J.R. Smith -- has a worse pure point rating than Ellis.

I point out Ellis' startlingly poor offensive efficiency because it's of more than merely academic interest. I'm still dreading he'll be chosen as an All-Star sub (if his own knee injury suffered Monday night isn't serious) since about half of the Western Conference team seems to be on the verge of pulling out of the game, and the lure of the scoring average may be too much for the commissioner to resist.

(That said, an equally awful choice would be Houston's Aaron Brooks, and I've heard as much momentum for picking him as for taking Ellis. Baron Davis is still miles better than both of them even while taking every third night off; he's the obvious choice here. Unfortunately, the league may be reluctant to take a second Clipper, meaning the botched Kaman pick will lead to an equally idiotic outcome in the backcourt.)

Overrated: Joe Dumars

Let's look ourselves in the mirror, fellow media members: We've all given the guy a free pass because of his amazing run to six straight conference finals and blithely ignored the fact that he's screwed up a hundred ways from Tuesday since he decided to whack Flip Saunders after the 2008 conference finals.

Check out the résumé and find me a correct decision. Just one. Fire Saunders? Wrong. Hire Michael Curry? Wrong. Trade Chauncey Billups? Wrong. Extend Richard Hamilton? Wrong. Sign Kwame Brown? Wrong. Go after Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva? Wrong again.

In two years, the Pistons have gone from one of the best teams in basketball to among the worst. They stink, they're capped out, and they don't have much in the way of young talent; for all we know, in two years they're going to be the Pittsburgh Pisces or the Seattle Grunge or something. If Isiah Thomas or Rob Babcock had done this, we'd have buried them alive by now, so it's only fair for us to point out that regardless of his previous track record, Dumars is on a two-year losing streak of McHalian proportions.
Mike

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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2010, 12:43:41 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Wow.

For once, I think I agree with Hollinger on all three accounts here.


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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2010, 12:45:32 PM »

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Who is on Hollinger's underrated list?

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2010, 12:56:52 PM »

Offline PLamb

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Who is on Hollinger's underrated list?
Steve Nash at 35 years old

Nazr Mohammed

Andrew Bogut

Andrei Kirilenko
Pick 2 Knicks

PG: George Hill, Ty Lawson
SG: Ray Allen, Anthony Parker, Quentin Richardson
SF: Grant Hill, Matt Barnes, D
PF: Zach Randolph, Kenyon Martin, Jon Brockman, Dante Cunningham
C:  Nene Hilario,   Own rights: Nikola Pekovic IR: Kyle Weaver

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2010, 12:57:27 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Underrated: The Revival of AK-47

When we talk about players who merit consideration for one of the several All-Star spots likely to come open in the Western Conference, I'm surprised Andrei Kirilenko hasn't received more attention. Right now, his bad haircut is getting more airtime than his stellar play, and that's unfortunate.

One of the big reasons behind Utah's recent change in the standings, and in particular the Jazz's improved defensive play, is that Kirilenko has suddenly reverted to his mid-2000s form. Over the past eight games, he's averaging 18.6 points per game and shooting a scalding 72.1 percent from the floor.

That's impressive enough, but what's really notable is how he's filling out the rest of the stat sheet with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks per game. It's a throwback to his "5x5" days, except now he's hitting midrange jumpers consistently. Kirilenko's impact has been notable on D, too -- Utah gives up 6.8 points fewer per 100 possessions with him on the court.

As a result, he's been more than able to offset Utah's other issues on the wings -- the nondevelopment of Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles, for instance, or the injury to Kyle Korver -- and provide a reliable wingman for the Deron Williams-Carlos Boozer star tandem.

Underrated: Nazr Mohammed

I'm going to keep talking about this 'til I'm blue in the face because nobody else seems to be catching on to Mohammed's dramatic career turnaround this season. Yes, Cap'n Jack has made an impact; yes, coach Larry Brown has these guys defending like never before; and yes, Gerald Wallace is showing the full arsenal now that he's finally staying healthy.

But I would argue Mohammed is a bigger story than those other guys, and absolutely nobody is talking about him. He was left for dead at the end of the bench last season, and this season he's been killing. The Bobcats lost Tyson Chandler and immediately embarked on a winning streak because Mohammed started channeling Dave Cowens -- how about 23 and 17 against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, or the fact he's averaging 20.2 points and 12.0 boards per 40 minutes, or that he's shooting 57.3 percent from the field?

Mohammed has been playing only 20-25 minutes a game, which has kept his numbers down and prevented more people from noticing him. While I don't think he's quite this good, I've always believed him to be underrated because of his knack on the boards and ugly-but-effective 10-to-12-foot jumper.

Underrated: Andrew Bogut

Well, let's put it this way: He's been better than Chris Kaman. I left him off my All-Star team, but I think he may have moved past New York's David Lee in the competition to be chosen as a sub. Milwaukee is making a legitimate push to squeeze into the postseason -- my projections have them finishing 42-40 -- which would be a huge development for a team that was thought to be about half a notch above New Jersey before the season started.

Bogut is an underrated key at both ends. Offensively, he's become a go-to guy for the Bucks, thanks to an improving series of jump-hook moves in the lane; he averages 19.7 points per 40 minutes, with reasonable efficiency, and has dramatically cut his turnover rate from last season's unacceptably high levels. He's even making foul shots once in a while, converting a career-best 64.0 percent.

Meanwhile, he's been a key to the Bucks' defense despite an inability to challenge shots at the rim. Bogut specializes in taking charges and plays physical post defense, helping the Bucks rank eighth in the NBA in defensive efficiency despite the fairly limited defensive assets on the Milwaukee roster.
Mike

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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2010, 12:59:22 PM »

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A good list

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2010, 01:00:46 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I gotta offer my mea culpa on Bogut.  I was wrong about him.

When he signed that extension last year, I thought he was overpaid but looking at his progress and his play of this year, I think the Bucks were right and I was wrong. 

Kid's playing real well.


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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2010, 01:01:55 PM »

Offline ToppersBsktball10

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Great overrated list.

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2010, 01:02:24 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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Makes sense that every person he has overrated is in fact underrated.  Although I'm not sure anyone that knows the game overrates joe dumars.  Those that don't do though.

How this dimwit keeps a job is beyond me.  It must be all the PER zombies.
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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2010, 01:05:09 PM »

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I gotta offer my mea culpa on Bogut.  I was wrong about him.

When he signed that extension last year, I thought he was overpaid but looking at his progress and his play of this year, I think the Bucks were right and I was wrong. 

Kid's playing real well.
Oh, me too. I criticized that deal too, mainly because of his defense which I didn't like at the time ... but he's proven me wrong.

Bogut has become a very talented defensive player. I never thought that would happen. His improvement under Scott Skiles has been impressive. He's playing very good basketball.

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #10 on: February 09, 2010, 01:06:19 PM »

Offline sk7326

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Makes sense that every person he was overrated is in fact underrated.

Monta Ellis is scary overrated ... an unconscious gunner playing the point on the most selfish team in the league ... given his ghastly shooting percentage, he's a poor man Allen Iverson at his peak without the force of personality.  

AK-47 and Josh Smith have been underrated the way 2006 Shawn Marion was.  Fans clamor for team guys who do all the "little things", do not need the ball to be effective and defend the heck out of their position.  Sure enough we get those players and fans and conference coaches totally forget to honor them, let alone think of them as truly elite.

Hinrich is a decent defender who cannot shoot ... Ime Udoka does that for 1/13 of the price

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2010, 01:06:43 PM »

Offline ssspence

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Makes sense that every person he has overrated is in fact underrated.  Although I'm not sure anyone that knows the game overrates joe dumars.  Those that don't do though.

How this dimwit keeps a job is beyond me.  It must be all the PER zombies.

Did you go to grade school with Monta Ellis or something?
Mike

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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2010, 01:08:24 PM »

Offline sk7326

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Makes sense that every person he has overrated is in fact underrated.  Although I'm not sure anyone that knows the game overrates joe dumars.  Those that don't do though.

How this dimwit keeps a job is beyond me.  It must be all the PER zombies.

I too am impressed at all of Monta Ellis' 6 for 22 games.  Jolly good.

Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2010, 01:11:58 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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Makes sense that every person he was overrated is in fact underrated.

Monta Ellis is scary overrated ... an unconscious gunner playing the point on the most selfish team in the league ... given his ghastly shooting percentage, he's a poor man Allen Iverson at his peak without the force of personality.  

AK-47 and Josh Smith have been underrated the way 2006 Shawn Marion was.  Fans clamor for team guys who do all the "little things", do not need the ball to be effective and defend the heck out of their position.  Sure enough we get those players and fans and conference coaches totally forget to honor them, let alone think of them as truly elite.

Hinrich is a decent defender who cannot shoot ... Ime Udoka does that for 1/13 of the price


You are so wrong about Ellis and I won't waste my time to explain it to you.  Stick with FG% and Per. 

Josh Smith and AK-47 (stupid name) aren't underrated either.  Everyone who knows the game that doesn't use per as the reasoning knows they are good.

Hinrich might be slightly overpaid but, a much better player than you believe if you think he's comparable to Udoka who know one wants. 

« Last Edit: February 09, 2010, 01:17:24 PM by Birdbrain »
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Re: Hollinger's Overrated / Underrated list
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2010, 01:13:13 PM »

Offline Birdbrain

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Makes sense that every person he has overrated is in fact underrated.  Although I'm not sure anyone that knows the game overrates joe dumars.  Those that don't do though.

How this dimwit keeps a job is beyond me.  It must be all the PER zombies.

Did you go to grade school with Monta Ellis or something?

No I actually what games and understand them and rarely if ever use some stupid made up stat as reasoning.
Little Fockers 1.5/10
Gulliver's Travels 1/10
Grown Ups -20/10
Tron Legacy 6.5/10