We Have a Model For What May Happen In Boston

[Brickowski]

I give you the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons.

This is what happens when

(1) you hang on to aging stars for too long (Hamilton, Prince)
(2) Let key players go for nothing instead of trading them first (Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess)
(3) trade away your key playmaker for an aging player with a big expiring contract (Billups for Iverson),
(4) and then use the resulting cap space to make dumb free agent signings simply because you can.

After winning a title a few short years ago, the Pistons are no longer relevant.  Hopefully Ainge has learned from Dumars' mistakes, but you never know.




 

[ssspence]

I've got you on 1,2 and 4. Where do you see 3 showing up on the Cs?

[Who]

Detroit's main problems:

(1) Wanting to retain part of the old team to teach the new guys and thus limiting their flexibility to make changes.
(2) A lack of patience in rebuilding. Settling for pieces that weren't good enough in 2009 instead of waiting for 2010. Unwilling to take one on the chin for the greater good.
(3) Poor choices in free agency

[Chris]

I think this is a bit of a stretch, but it is a great example of complete mismanagement of a team that was in decent shape.  

Between the extensions of players on the downside (rip), shortsighted trades (Billups), and reactionary free agent signings (Villanueva...I think Gordon could end up decent), this team was run into the ground.

I like to think Danny will be smarter than this.  He understands the value of legit stars, and keeping flexibility, so you can go after legit stars when they come available.  

This is why I think Danny is going to err on the side of letting contracts expire, rather than taking on bad contracts (or resigning guys for more than they are worth).

I think its nearly impossible to avoid having a few down seasons, but the goal should be avoiding extending the lean years more than you need to.  And unfortunately for Detroit, I think that is what they have done.

[ssspence]

Detroit's main problems:

(1) Wanting to retain part of the old team to teach the new guys and thus limiting their flexibility to make changes.
(2) A lack of patience in rebuilding. Settling for pieces that weren't good enough in 2009 instead of waiting for 2010. Unwilling to take one on the chin for the greater good.
(3) Poor choices in free agency

Let's not forget two key items:

1) Drafting Darko;

2) Hamilton's contract.

What on earth was Joe Dumars thinking with Hamilton's contract extension, especially considering his desire to sign Gordon? It's inexplicable. He literally looked an asset in the face and made that asset untradable for no logically reason whatsoever.

Dumars is an enormously overrated GM. 

[sk7326]

I give you the 2009-2010 Detroit Pistons.

This is what happens when

(1) you hang on to aging stars for too long (Hamilton, Prince)
(2) Let key players go for nothing instead of trading them first (Rasheed Wallace, Antonio McDyess)
(3) trade away your key playmaker for an aging player with a big expiring contract (Billups for Iverson),
(4) and then use the resulting cap space to make dumb free agent signings simply because you can.

After winning a title a few short years ago, the Pistons are no longer relevant.  Hopefully Ainge has learned from Dumars' mistakes, but you never know.




 

If we could get to 6 straight conference finals - that would have been a spectacular run.  Really, this was a Faustian bargain, we knew it in 2007.  But it won a title, and it made the Celtics relevant again - and it probably helps them be a target for good players again.  

Really the key is 2012, when KG's deal runs out.  Have to be careful about letting deals go past that.  Rondo's was a sensible obvious exception, and if they re-up Perk, he will also be a fair exception.  Basically how the Spurs roll, where all their deals are tied in length to Duncan's.

In the meantime, they have Allen's expiring to move - but only if they can get a legitimate part for it.  Otherwise, better of filling in the edges and working with Ray.  His quickness is not there anymore, but his virtue (shooting) is something that generally ages very well compared to other basketball skills.  You know how it goes, be tall, be a good shooter, be a good passer, there is a chance there will always be some work out there.  

[WeMadeIt17]

What we can do is trade one of our aging stars (cough cough Ray Allen Cough Cough) for a younger stud and can keep these times rolling. We will end up like Detroit if we keep Ray as our starter for this year and next.

[BballTim]

  We're not entirely the same as their entire core was aging. We have Rondo and Perk. They literally needed to flip their entire lineup, we only need to flip a couple of them.

[crownsy]

What we can do is trade one of our aging stars (cough cough Ray Allen Cough Cough) for a younger stud and can keep these times rolling. We will end up like Detroit if we keep Ray as our starter for this year and next.

I bet danny would do that, if it ever came up.

In reality, teams rarely, if ever, trade young players (i.e Studs) for expiring contracts and nothing else.

Those trades send back decent players, at best, who amount to the contract taken on.

That, to me, is the huge downfall of all the CBlog trade proposals. They place an unrealistic value on ray's expiring deal and how willing teams are to bend over backwards to take ray allen from us.

It is very tradable, but not for the pie in the sky scenarios I see posted that have ray's contract netting us a sub- 30 year old star.

[ssspence]

What we can do is trade one of our aging stars (cough cough Ray Allen Cough Cough) for a younger stud and can keep these times rolling. We will end up like Detroit if we keep Ray as our starter for this year and next.

I bet danny would do that, if it ever came up.

In reality, teams rarely, if ever, trade young players (i.e Studs) for expiring contracts and nothing else.

Those trades send back decent players, at best, who amount to the contract taken on.

That, to me, is the huge downfall of all the CBlog trade proposals. They place an unrealistic value on ray's expiring deal and how willing teams are to bend over backwards to take ray allen from us.

It is very tradable, but not for the pie in the sky scenarios I see posted that have ray's contract netting us a sub- 30 year old star.

well said. proposals for a legit top player need to include one or two of the following besides expiring contract(s):

1) taking back a very bad contract;
2) giving up good young talent on rookie-scale contracts (we currently have zero of these players);
3) giving up picks.

Use the Pau Gasol trade as the best case scenario without including a bad contract -- if I remember correctly, the Lakers gave up an expiring contract, two 1st round picks, Marc Gasol (a 1st round talent) and Crittendon, who at the time was a 1st round pick with some promise.

Considering the lack of young talent on the Cs, they'll have to take a bad contract and give up picks to get a player like Iggy or Martin, if they're lucky. 

[fanofgreen]

What we can do is trade one of our aging stars (cough cough Ray Allen Cough Cough) for a younger stud and can keep these times rolling. We will end up like Detroit if we keep Ray as our starter for this year and next.

Who is that young stud??

[WeMadeIt17]

What we can do is trade one of our aging stars (cough cough Ray Allen Cough Cough) for a younger stud and can keep these times rolling. We will end up like Detroit if we keep Ray as our starter for this year and next.

Who is that young stud??

Kevin Martin.. Andre Iguodala.. You know one of those young guys.

[Andy Jick]

thankfully, though,  we don't have that moronic public address announcer from detroit...  if danny decides to trade for him that's where i draw the line...

[JSD]

I'd say it's more of model for what not to do in the NBA.

[Brickowski]

Hey, the Pistons had young "studs" like Rodney Stuckey and Jason Maxiel.

It's never pretty when you have to break up an aging team that used to be good.  But the lessons seem to be:

1. It's better to trade players a year too early than a year too late. Always trade older players for younger players, never for another older player.

2. Cap space is overrated.  It doesn't make baskets for you, and if you're team is crappy, you have to overpay for second tier FA's, because none of the others will come to play for you.

3. Never underestimate the value of a good point guard.

4. Rebuilding on the fly doesn't work.  You need at least one trip to the lottery (and you need to draft well when you get there) in order to start climbing back up.