Shocked

[Jon]

Whether this PP injury ends up being serious or not, I have to say, I'm absolutely shocked about how eager some people are to blow up this whole thing.  While I'm not about to make any guarantees about this current team winning another title and while I'm getting anxious about the core group's age, I also think people need to step back and truly appreciate how hard it is to win an NBA title.

The fact of the matter is that except in the very rare fluke year (like the '04 Pistons or the '79 Sonics), you need a top 5 player in the league to win a title with a very strong supporting cast.  The trick of course is getting one of these top 5 players on your team.  Unfortunately, it's not so easy. 

So what does that mean?

1) Ainge's notion that trading the Big Three 1988 would've done wonders for the C's is likely a crock of crap.  First of all, even had everything gone right, they likely wouldn't have been good enough to beat Isaiah's Pistons or MJ's Bulls.  Second, and more importantly, this notion that trading fading superstars for young players = success is terribly flawed.  Look at the 1988 draft for instance:

1. Danny Manning
2. Rik Smits
3. Charles Smith
4. Chris Morris
5. Mitch Richmond
6. Hersey Hawkins
7. Tim Perry
8. Rex Chapman
9. Rony Seikaly
10. Willie Anderson
(and #11 was Will Perdue!) 

2) Which of course leads to my next point, trading the current Big Three by no means guarantees success.  Likely we'll get some overpaid, borderline All Star who will financially weigh us down in the future and/or a pick that likely won't be much more than some of the stellar names above. 

I hate to say it, but even the bestlaid rebuilding plans usually don't work.  Look at Malone's Jazz, Barkley's Suns, Ewing's Knicks, Reggie's Pacers, Dirk's Mavs, Webber's Kings, and Nash's Suns.  Sure, some of those teams made some questionable moves, but the biggest "mistake" any of GM's made was not getting lucky enough to land Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, Bryant, or Shaq.  And it was luck. 

So while we can certainly make arguments about ways to improve the current team that may involve trades, I wouldn't be overly anxious to blow this thing up.  We're going to have to get extremely lucky with either

A) Rondo becoming a Nash-like force
B) getting extremely lucky in the draft
C) getting extremely lucky in free agency/trade

to even sniff being as good as we are now in the next 5-10 years. 

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TP.

To be honest, I'm not sure whether I believe that the older, wiser Danny the GM would be as quick to pull such a thing as the young, smart-mouthed Danny the player would.  He had only played for the C's with Bird, and really had no idea how hard building a contender is/was.  All the breaks have to go in your favor, drafting the player that eventually turns out to be the right guy (who didn't turn out to be Greg Oden), right mix, and, as we now all know, health.  I think more GM's, including Danny, don't pull a trade of a major player unless they are convinced the team wouldn't even make the playoffs, and for years to come.  The 88-89 team barely squeaked in, but the next few years were actually pretty good.

Maybe some teams are favored more than others, but it's always a long shot.

[BASS_THUMPER]

which brings up the point..

ya need a big 12....not a big three..

the weight needs to be on the whole team not jus 3 playas


so cool how far we made it without kev last playoffs...we got talent doc needs to use it now and get them ready

[rondohondo]

Whether this PP injury ends up being serious or not, I have to say, I'm absolutely shocked about how eager some people are to blow up this whole thing.  While I'm not about to make any guarantees about this current team winning another title and while I'm getting anxious about the core group's age, I also think people need to step back and truly appreciate how hard it is to win an NBA title.

The fact of the matter is that except in the very rare fluke year (like the '04 Pistons or the '79 Sonics), you need a top 5 player in the league to win a title with a very strong supporting cast.  The trick of course is getting one of these top 5 players on your team.  Unfortunately, it's not so easy. 

So what does that mean?

1) Ainge's notion that trading the Big Three 1988 would've done wonders for the C's is likely a crock of crap.  First of all, even had everything gone right, they likely wouldn't have been good enough to beat Isaiah's Pistons or MJ's Bulls.  Second, and more importantly, this notion that trading fading superstars for young players = success is terribly flawed.  Look at the 1988 draft for instance:

1. Danny Manning
2. Rik Smits
3. Charles Smith
4. Chris Morris
5. Mitch Richmond
6. Hersey Hawkins
7. Tim Perry
8. Rex Chapman
9. Rony Seikaly
10. Willie Anderson
(and #11 was Will Perdue!) 

2) Which of course leads to my next point, trading the current Big Three by no means guarantees success.  Likely we'll get some overpaid, borderline All Star who will financially weigh us down in the future and/or a pick that likely won't be much more than some of the stellar names above. 

I hate to say it, but even the bestlaid rebuilding plans usually don't work.  Look at Malone's Jazz, Barkley's Suns, Ewing's Knicks, Reggie's Pacers, Dirk's Mavs, Webber's Kings, and Nash's Suns.  Sure, some of those teams made some questionable moves, but the biggest "mistake" any of GM's made was not getting lucky enough to land Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, Bryant, or Shaq.  And it was luck. 

So while we can certainly make arguments about ways to improve the current team that may involve trades, I wouldn't be overly anxious to blow this thing up.  We're going to have to get extremely lucky with either

A) Rondo becoming a Nash-like force
B) getting extremely lucky in the draft
C) getting extremely lucky in free agency/trade

to even sniff being as good as we are now in the next 5-10 years. 

well I am going to respond because I feel a lot of this thread is directed at me because I made the thread "if PP is done for the year,trade KG and Sheed for expiring contracts"

Like I said over and over again I want the C's to be totally healthy so they can go for #18 this year, BUT if he is done for the year our window is slammed shut it's as simple as that.

We knew when the Big 3 were put together that we would have a 3 year window to go for a championship and this is now year 3.  If PP is done for te year why wouldn't we blow it up? So we can get booted in the 2nd round and grow a year old with a gimpy KG and PP coming back from a 2nd broken foot in the past 4 years?

You have to trade KG and Sheed for expirings if you know PP is done this year in my opinion. KG is on a fast decline and his leg isn't going to get better with just rest. He has played 40000+ mins already in his career. That's more than Ewing for his career,Barkley and just about any other hall of famer .I think he is top 20 all time in mins played.

[cdif911]

which brings up the point..

ya need a big 12....not a big three..

the weight needs to be on the whole team not jus 3 playas


so cool how far we made it without kev last playoffs...we got talent doc needs to use it now and get them ready

not a big 12, a solid 8, but you do need at least 2 superstars to win it in this league, or 1 super and 2 or 3 very solid all-star calibre guys

a team of 12 tony allen level players (or pick any other average NBAer) doesn't win it

[ScoobyDoo]

Yes, nice post and TP again for you. I actually think we are fine with the current big three and will be for another year of two as well with two asteriks:

1. That KG remains realtively healthy
2. That we do address getting a decent off guard to start for Ray and hopefully bring him off the bench a la Michael Finley ended up doing. Ray would have huge value here.

What bothers me more is that Ainge has not, in my opinion, done the best job he could have in supporting the Rolls Royce ( Perk, KG, Pierce, Ray and Rondo) he put together with the supporting cast they deserve, IMHO.

With a Vet team you have to stack your bench with the right role players who can play some serious minutes when needed to keep the Vets fresh.

In 2008, Ainge did a decent job. Powe / Posey / PJ / Cassell

2009? You win a championship and then Ainge just killed the team as far as I'm concerned. That is, unless you think Mikki Moore at back up center / TA and Scal at back up SF / TA at back up off guard and House at back up point is a good bench. The only bakc ups that were true position players coming off our bench were Powe and baby backing up KG. That siad they were both undersized.

The other poistions? Mikki Moore? TA too small at SF and Scal too slow. TA not enough at back up off guard and House is an off guard tryign to play point...

This year? yet again no legit back up for Rondo ( three years running now) and no legit back up for Pierce ( two years running now )...

Don't buy a Rolls Royce (starting five) and then put bicycle tires ( bench) on it!! We were dominant in 2008 becasue of the bench.

2010
I actually like Sheed. He's a legit big bodied 7 fotter with some skills. Doc needs to pant his but on the post though.

I like Marquis behind Ray and though I miss Powe's toughness, I am ok with Baby and Shelden. I'd like to see Shelden used though.

However, we still have no back up for Pierce and Rondo. How? Why? What's so difficult? All we need is an Anthony Parker or Johnson type behind Rondo and a Matt Barnes type behind Pierce. Nothing too major. And certainly achievable.

You put a real back up point with the second team and a legit 6'7 6'8 SF behind Pierce and Rondo, tema is dramatically better. Dramatically.

All this being said, we can compete for a title the next two years, no problem if the Vetsd have realtive health AND we stack the bench at each position with good solid role players who are playign in the position they're supposed to. Not Eddie trying to play point or Tony trying to play center or Marquis trying to play SF...

I have not given up on the team and think if we even get this core group healthy ( vets and bench) and have a while to play together heading into the playoffs, we will crush teams, including the Lakers.

But how dominant could we be with a bit better bench management re acquisitions...exponentially.

I think Danny may yet pull a nice trade deadline move and we may not have yet seen the final result with this team.

So I'm not for trading the Vets at all. As mentioned there are no guarantees doing that.

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well I am going to respond because I feel a lot of this thread is directed at me because I made the thread "if PP is done for the year,trade KG and Sheed for expiring contracts"

Like I said over and over again I want the C's to be totally healthy so they can go for #18 this year, BUT if he is done for the year our window is slammed shut it's as simple as that.

We knew when the Big 3 were put together that we would have a 3 year window to go for a championship and this is now year 3.  If PP is done for te year why wouldn't we blow it up? So we can get booted in the 2nd round and grow a year old with a gimpy KG and PP coming back from a 2nd broken foot in the past 4 years?

You have to trade KG and Sheed for expirings if you know PP is done this year in my opinion. KG is on a fast decline and his leg isn't going to get better with just rest. He has played 40000+ mins already in his career. That's more than Ewing for his career,Barkley and just about any other hall of famer .I think he is top 20 all time in mins played.

Got to disagree, while I maintain my position on the fence that if the right deal is out there, you do it.

I'll use the 1988 example.  Bird went out for the season, and we limped into the playoffs with no legit shot to win it all.  We were a pretty good team for the next couple of years anyway, while developing the young talent that included Reggie Lewis.  If we would've been able to pick up playoff ready veterans to come off the bench instead of young not-ready players (like Brian Shaw et. al.), we're contenders those years instead of 2nd round exits.

So there is hope, even if the worst is true and PP's year were done (hope not).  If we do nothing this year, sign Ray Allan to be 6th man, and use the MLE to get a solid starter to take his spot, then we're right back in it next year.

Blowing up this year would set up a bunch of trades like when Danny started by trading Antoine for spare parts to get draft picks.  We end up sucking for 5 years, waiting for contracts to expire and draft picks to develop.

Do the right deal, I say, but don't blow up everything.  It ain't that bad.

[Andy Jick]

i think danny is still somewhat bitter that he was the one Red traded (Pinckney & Kleine deal) to get front court help.

going back in time there were 2 prominent rumors surrounding the celtics around 1988 (or so): McHale for Mark Aguirre ... and Parish for Michael Cage & Xavier McDaniel (and not the washed-up version we had in the mid-90's).  Would either of those deals helped?  Who knows.  The Seattle deal was tempting because Cage was a GREAT rebounder and watching the X-man (largely in his prime) playing next to Bird would have been interesting to watch (along with Reggie Lewis - wow!).

But it never materialized because Red was loyal...

I believe Danny should trade Ray Allen...but he should not blow the thing up.  In my opinion, blowups don't work...

[Eja117]

I believe Danny should trade Ray Allen...but he should not blow the thing up.  In my opinion, blowups don't work...

True. But neither does running a lame horse (or several old and lame horses) into the ground. 

[Jon]

Whether this PP injury ends up being serious or not, I have to say, I'm absolutely shocked about how eager some people are to blow up this whole thing.  While I'm not about to make any guarantees about this current team winning another title and while I'm getting anxious about the core group's age, I also think people need to step back and truly appreciate how hard it is to win an NBA title.

The fact of the matter is that except in the very rare fluke year (like the '04 Pistons or the '79 Sonics), you need a top 5 player in the league to win a title with a very strong supporting cast.  The trick of course is getting one of these top 5 players on your team.  Unfortunately, it's not so easy. 

So what does that mean?

1) Ainge's notion that trading the Big Three 1988 would've done wonders for the C's is likely a crock of crap.  First of all, even had everything gone right, they likely wouldn't have been good enough to beat Isaiah's Pistons or MJ's Bulls.  Second, and more importantly, this notion that trading fading superstars for young players = success is terribly flawed.  Look at the 1988 draft for instance:

1. Danny Manning
2. Rik Smits
3. Charles Smith
4. Chris Morris
5. Mitch Richmond
6. Hersey Hawkins
7. Tim Perry
8. Rex Chapman
9. Rony Seikaly
10. Willie Anderson
(and #11 was Will Perdue!) 

2) Which of course leads to my next point, trading the current Big Three by no means guarantees success.  Likely we'll get some overpaid, borderline All Star who will financially weigh us down in the future and/or a pick that likely won't be much more than some of the stellar names above. 

I hate to say it, but even the bestlaid rebuilding plans usually don't work.  Look at Malone's Jazz, Barkley's Suns, Ewing's Knicks, Reggie's Pacers, Dirk's Mavs, Webber's Kings, and Nash's Suns.  Sure, some of those teams made some questionable moves, but the biggest "mistake" any of GM's made was not getting lucky enough to land Jordan, Olajuwon, Duncan, Bryant, or Shaq.  And it was luck. 

So while we can certainly make arguments about ways to improve the current team that may involve trades, I wouldn't be overly anxious to blow this thing up.  We're going to have to get extremely lucky with either

A) Rondo becoming a Nash-like force
B) getting extremely lucky in the draft
C) getting extremely lucky in free agency/trade

to even sniff being as good as we are now in the next 5-10 years. 

well I am going to respond because I feel a lot of this thread is directed at me because I made the thread "if PP is done for the year,trade KG and Sheed for expiring contracts"

Like I said over and over again I want the C's to be totally healthy so they can go for #18 this year, BUT if he is done for the year our window is slammed shut it's as simple as that.

We knew when the Big 3 were put together that we would have a 3 year window to go for a championship and this is now year 3.  If PP is done for te year why wouldn't we blow it up? So we can get booted in the 2nd round and grow a year old with a gimpy KG and PP coming back from a 2nd broken foot in the past 4 years?

You have to trade KG and Sheed for expirings if you know PP is done this year in my opinion. KG is on a fast decline and his leg isn't going to get better with just rest. He has played 40000+ mins already in his career. That's more than Ewing for his career,Barkley and just about any other hall of famer .I think he is top 20 all time in mins played.

It wasn't so much directed at you as just all people who seem to be in a rush to move on from what we have now.  While I'm hopeful Ainge can pull off a stunning rebuilding effort at some point, I just hope people realize that almost every attempt to build a contender is a failure (look at the other 29 teams every year) and that even the best laid plans require a lot of luck (would the Spurs have any titles had the not got lucky in '97; would Pitino be the talk of the town in Bosto had things gone the other way?). 

I just think it's very rare in basketball (a league so driven by superstars) to be in a position to say that you're seriously a title contender (not just a top 8 team).  Any team in that position shouldn't be anxious to move on.