the Paul Pierce opt out option

[Jeff]

someone mentioned to me this morning that they heard Tanguay on the radio this AM talking about the Celtics having a dream to sign Joe Johnson.  The gist was that Pierce would opt out, wait for the team to sign JJ and then sign as a FA

he tossed around a number of being 16M under the cap to get the JJ deal done - but I don't see how that's possible - even with Ray and Paul coming off the books

some issues:

1. It depends on what the cap is set at, but I thought I heard it would be around 55M at best.  even if we renounce all our free agents, the salaries would be 41.8M with Pierce opting out.  That cap number is critical to finding out how much we'd have to offer.

2. to convince Paul to opt out, you would have to guarantee him more money than what he'd be opting out for (plus maybe what he thinks he'd be worth on his next contract) - even if you give him the MLE for the max number of years, I don't see that making up for turning down 21M in one year

I think Roy Hobbes might have done the math on this already but I can't find it and I'm sure the numbers have changed now that Rondo has his extension

[wdleehi]

See here.


http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=34768.msg670104;topicseen#new

[Roy Hobbs]

It can't happen.   In order to create space for JJ, we'd need to renounce Pierce, or sign him to a bargain-basement contract.

Here's what I wrote in the FAQ:

5) Do we have any chance of signing Lebron or any other big free agents from the Class of 2010?

See above.  The only way we realistically could gain cap space is if Paul Pierce opted out of his contract, and immediately signed with the Celtics for a vastly reduced amount.  (An immediate signing is necessary to eliminate his cap hold).  Working under the overly generous projection of a $60 million cap in 2010, we could gain approximately $25 million in cap space if Pierce re-signed for a minimum salary.  That would be enough to sign Lebron to a max salary deal (which would have a starting salary of between $18 and $19 million per season).

I'll allow people to judge for themselves how likely all of the above is.

UPDATE:  With the signing of Rasheed and BBD, it will be practically impossible to sign a max free agent with cap space, even if Pierce opts out and leaves the team.

After cap holds, etc., our salary cap will be at approximately $40 million in 2010, even if Pierce opts out.  Right now, the salary cap for next season is projected to be between $50.4 million and $53.6.  That means that, if Pierce opts out, we'll have between $10.5 million and $13.7 million to spend on free agents.  That's not enough for a max contract.

[Jeff]

so if he opts out, and we renounce him, is it still possible to sign him (regardless of amount) after we sign someone else?

[Roy Hobbs]

so if he opts out, and we renounce him, is it still possible to sign him (regardless of amount) after we sign someone else?

Not using Bird rights.  We could sign him to a minimum contract, or with any cap space we have.

(Note:  if we have cap space, we also couldn't use the MLE, etc.)

[Jeff]

got it, thanks

[jdpapa3]

I remember Wyc saying around draft time that there was a possible move on the table that would give us 2010 cap space, but I'm pretty sure that was out the window when we signed Rasheed/Baby. I think that move would've required renouncing Ray, trading Perk and Rondo, and the Pierce opt out/re-sign to less money over more years thing. Would've been ambitious to say the least, and still very reliant on the cap number that hasn't been seen yet.

[LarBrd33]

the cap next year is 57.7... if we let Ray walk and Pierce opted out, we'd have 41.7 mil committed.

That's leaves 16 mil to sign a max player (i am assuming we'd renounce Pierce), but then I think we could only offer Pierce the vet minimum.   Would we even be able to give him the MLE in that scenario? 

It would be more possible if we didn't commit 9 mil a year to Baby and Sheed.

[LarBrd33]

maybe it's possible if we do some complicated sign-and-trade, but I doubt it.

[Chris]

I remember Wyc saying around draft time that there was a possible move on the table that would give us 2010 cap space, but I'm pretty sure that was out the window when we signed Rasheed/Baby. I think that move would've required renouncing Ray, trading Perk and Rondo, and the Pierce opt out/re-sign to less money over more years thing. Would've been ambitious to say the least, and still very reliant on the cap number that hasn't been seen yet.

Yeah, there was an outside chance before the signed Wallace, Baby, and Rondo, but now that is an extra $19 million on the books next season. 

the cap next year is 57.7... if we let Ray walk and Pierce opted out, we'd have 41.7 mil committed.

That's leaves 16 mil to sign a max player (i am assuming we'd renounce Pierce), but then I think we could only offer Pierce the vet minimum.   Would we even be able to give him the MLE in that scenario? 

It would be more possible if we didn't commit 9 mil a year to Baby and Sheed.

No MLE.  And it sounds like the cap will be significantly lower than $57 million.

[LarBrd33]

Chris you're right.  57.7 was this year's cap.