the two busts there are banks and gerald the other guys are either late first or secound round.. tell me how many secound rounders actually make it?
Hey, I love having a dialogue with a skeptic, but please, offer something to the discussion, okay? Let me ask you a question:
What would you look for in a second round pick?
I think that needs to be answered before answering how/why they do or don't stick.
a useful rotation player
That would be nice. Practically speaking, it isn't really a viable answer, since whatever player would qualify as a "rotation player" would depend on who else is on the team. also, it is very unlikely to see a second round pick being a rotation guy in their first year (which I take to mean a 15-20 minute/night guy).
But I'll take it to mean that you look for a player that has skills to complement the team that's already there, and not a 1st, second, or third scoring option or a starter, but are looking more for, at best, the 8th or 9th man in the regular rotation, and perhaps someone who could grow into a bigger role-playing role.
I'll stick to the idea of the OP that Doc doesn't use young players, and my suggestion that they don't develop as well as a result.
A good coach puts players in a position to succeed. That's critical for young players. I think getting dumped by one team doesn't exactly turn other teams on, who are developing their own guys and don't have enough roster spots to have too many projects. You pretty much have to make it with the team that drafts you.
You'll see how LA did a great job drafing shooters and bangers/rebounders with their late picks, as almost everyone on the list was one or the other. That makes them ideal complements/role players in the triangle. They were put on the floor and given playing time in situations where they could be expected to succeed (we might call it 'playing within themselves' or whatever). And they did/are.
You'll see how Danny's strategy varied. At first, he was looking for players with "an NBA-level skill", like Banks' on-ball defense, or Brandon Hunter's rebounding. He's gotten away from that, and tried to fill a position, then just went with the best overall player available. I think the "NBA skill" strategy makes more sense at this point in the draft, as LA's experience showed.
He drafted quite a few point guards to fill a need (thay are no longer in the league). What were they expected to do? They were expected to run an NBA offense, mostly. Could they have gotten the ball over halfcourt and given it to Ray or Pierce? Probably. If any of those guys could get the ball over halfcourt, give it to PP or RA, and then wait to shoot and make an open 3, they'd be better than Eddie House. They were not put in a position to succeed by "playing within themselves".
He also drafted guys that were undersized, hustle PF's who fell due to size and injury. Those guys included Gomes and Powe, but also Brandon Hunter.
Hunter got screwed. Our former interim coach finally played him in the Pacer's playoff series when J.O'Neal was pushing us around, and Rick Carlysle ended Hunter's career by calling him a goon. Nobody in the C's organization stood up for him, and he was out of the league. He was, if only by chance, put in a position to succeed, but the organization didn't stick by him.
So I think that while you are correct that not many second rounders stick, I think quite often they are not developed properly, either, and the Celtics are the perfect example of a team that doesn't do a good job developing late picks.
Take Tony Allen: As posted in the "support tony allen thread", he is an above average slasher and defender, and a below average ball handler and shooter. The Celtics decide to make him play backup PG? Dumb. See him in the Lakers' game slashing and defending, and he looked great. If he develops his jump shot, he'll take and make more of those.
But the Celtics havn't given many of these other late round picks the opportunity to develop that TA has received. And Danny's draft strategy has been inconsistent.