My Trade Deadline Rant

[jdpapa3]

I have seen a lot of people that would like to trade our pupu platter of bench fodder and expiring contracts for players like Maggette and Hinrich.

-The issue with this is that we have 64 million tied up to Perk, Pierce, Sheed, KG, Rondo, and Davis.
-That is only 6 players. Then you add a player like Maggette or Hinrich that make about 9 million per year.
-Boom. You are at 73 million already.
-That is before you even re-up Ray, which you will probably have to do to stay at contender level. Add 8 for Ray and there's 81 million for 8 guys.
-5 more guys on minimum contracts? What about our first round pick? That is a lot of money for the owners and it's not my money so I don't know how rough it is to keep reaching in the pocket. You can definitely say good-bye to a MLE player. Paying dollar for dollar tax on this is expensive!

Here's the thing: it won't just be like that for this offseason. It will be the same for the next 1 or 2 seasons after that, depending on the guy.

Pierce could decline the option and sign for less money over more years, but the cap number will still be very high.

Something that seems to be common on the mediocre teams in this league is paying "good" players in the 8-10 million dollar range. It's tough to be a contender when you have Ben Gordon for 10 a year, or Hedo for 10 a year, and I could go on an on. These guys aren't all stars and Hinrich and Maggette are NOT ALL STARS.

Look at the top tier of the league that doesn't have Lebron(league of his own). We have 3 max contract all stars, LA has 2 max contract guys, SA has max guys, Orl has Dwight and Vince.

We can't constrict ourselves with overpaid role players. That is a perfect way to make us linger in mediocrity after the big boys decline.

[Change]

This is why everyone should be glad Ainge is the GM. He doesn't overpay 'role players' Example James Posey. Hornets now stuck with over priced 'role player'. Its doesn't make sense to cripple the franchise with Corey Maggette contract. It doesn't matter who they throw in the deal. In a year or two Celtics will regret it.

[Drucci]

Great post jdpapa, TP.

I admit I have been caught in the "trade our expirings for this guy and his terrible contract because we desperately need some punch off the bench" while I was being against these ideas at first.

The ideal scenario would be to get a player like Raja Bell who can contribute a lot to our team this season - assuming he comes back from injury in time and healthy - and whose contract expires this summer.

However it's highly unlikely that we could get that kind of ideal player, who is a perfect fit for us both in terms of basketball and long-term financial plans.

I still feel that we need a last piece to our current roster, assuming we have all our players healthy. We definitely need a two or three who can defend on opposing stars and hit shots.

That's why a player like Hinrich, I think, would fit with us, even with his bad contract, because he fulfills a need at two spots for us : point guard and guard, while Marquis can handle the wing.

Roy, or someone whith knowledege of the salary cap, please correct me if I'm wrong but I think the following scenario works financially :

Let's say we trade our expirings of TA, Scal, Walker and JR for Hinrich. We add 9 million dollars to our payroll for the next 3 years (actually, Hinrich's contract value decrases every year but whatever). Then we re-sign Ray for a 8 million $ deal for two years.

We still have the MLE, that we can use either on Marquis only, or split on Marquis and Eddie in the best case scenario. Re-sign Shelden for the minimum too.

Then, by adding "only" 9 million in the payroll, you have a roster of
Rondo/House
Ray/Hinrich
Pierce/Marquis
KG/BBD/Shelden
Perk/Sheed

That's a really good core for the future, and Hinrich's contract is not that bad since he fills two needs. Thus, some "bad contracts" for role players can be really attractive and useful for us, even for long term considerations, in my opinion.

But I agree with your point that Danny should be very cautious if he acquires a good bench player who helps us now and in the future, financially speaking - but it's really hard to find such a player, that's why I think a guy like Hinrich is a good compromise.

[jambr380]

This is why everyone should be glad Ainge is the GM. He doesn't overpay 'role players' Example James Posey. Hornets now stuck with over priced 'role player'. Its doesn't make sense to cripple the franchise with Corey Maggette contract. It doesn't matter who they throw in the deal. In a year or two Celtics will regret it.

You mean he doesn't overpay 'role players' anymore. Ainge was a pretty useless gm up until the Ray/Garnett deals. Before that magical offseason, we were the laughing stock of the NBA- the LaFrentz and Wally trades were two of the most hampering contracts a franchise could have traded for. We were stuck in mediocrity after the Antoine/Paul years. I think Danny has learned, but let's not fool ourselves. He really wanted Iverson, thought Telfair was the next star pg for this team, and who knows how close he was to trading Paul when he was at his lowest?

Who really knows what is best for this franchise? If we can get a player like Monta, we probably should go for it. If we can get a player like Iguodala, we should definitely go for it. I want a championship team again, but I will settle for a competitive team until the next one comes along.

[jdpapa3]

This is why everyone should be glad Ainge is the GM. He doesn't overpay 'role players' Example James Posey. Hornets now stuck with over priced 'role player'. Its doesn't make sense to cripple the franchise with Corey Maggette contract. It doesn't matter who they throw in the deal. In a year or two Celtics will regret it.

You mean he doesn't overpay 'role players' anymore. Ainge was a pretty useless gm up until the Ray/Garnett deals. Before that magical offseason, we were the laughing stock of the NBA- the LaFrentz and Wally trades were two of the most hampering contracts a franchise could have traded for. We were stuck in mediocrity after the Antoine/Paul years. I think Danny has learned, but let's not fool ourselves. He really wanted Iverson, thought Telfair was the next star pg for this team, and who knows how close he was to trading Paul when he was at his lowest?

Who really knows what is best for this franchise? If we can get a player like Monta, we probably should go for it. If we can get a player like Iguodala, we should definitely go for it. I want a championship team again, but I will settle for a competitive team until the next one comes along.

That's being extremely unfair to Danny. He inherited a terrible roster with only one legitimate piece to the future. He never actually got Iverson, so it's unclear whether he truly wanted him.

And Lafrentz and Wally were lateral moves. To say they were hampering the team is just having an uninformed opinion.

[jdpapa3]

It's also funny to call him useless when he had the best assets in the league to acquire TWO franchise type players in the same summer and STILL managed to hang onto one of the best under 23 players in the entire league and a top 10 player in the league.

[More Banners]

Great topic, and solid post.  Thanks.

As I was reading, I thought about how these bad contracts came to be.  I mean, it probably seemed like a good idea at the time, right?  There seem to be a few ways:

1)  Signing a free agent.  The normal way to do this is to be the highest bidder, meaning, one team pays more than any other team is able or willing to.  How would you trade that contract later when nobody else would pay it in the first place?  Danny set out to avoid this at first, choosing to build through the draft, then hope to get bargain FA's to finish off a contender.  It sort of worked.

2)  Role players from successful teams tend to get overpaid.  (Note:  this is what Daniels is hoping for, I think).  Sometimes, though, teams overpay their own guys to keep the mojo going, when they really shouldn't.  Like Jeff Foster in Indiana, or the tall guy in Cleveland.  Usually these guys are proven contributors that make it easier for the stars to do their job (they make few mistakes, play hard, good spacing and rotations, etc.)

3) Long term MLE deals, with raises, made more expensive by a trade kicker than happens along the way.  (See:  Mark Blount)  These deals probably seemed like fine mid-level money for quality role players at first, but look pretty dumb in years 4 and 5.

Only some of these end up being in that 10 million range as a bad deal.  Some are worth it, and the signing team was lucky the player didn't hold out for the max or try to get overpaid elsewhere.  Rondo will (hopefully) be in this category.  So are players like Ellis and Big Al, who could have tried to take advantage of 'Sota, which wouldn't have been hard to do.

Guaranteed contracts are risky business...but only for the owners.

[jambr380]

It's also funny to call him useless when he had the best assets in the league to acquire TWO franchise type players in the same summer and STILL managed to hang onto one of the best under 23 players in the entire league and a top 10 player in the league.

Hey, I am all about Danny nowadays. I think he has done an excellent job as of late and has become one of the premier gms in the game. Raef and Wally weren't lateral moves at all. He traded for more years/more money in players that everybody knew were injury prone and were making wayyyy too much money. Both moves, in my opinion, were panic moves to get rid of Antoine and Blount.

Danny deserves all of the credit in the world from the offseason of 06 and on. When he picked up Rondo and traded Raef for Theo, you finally could see the wheels turning. He just did things that were completely mindboggling when he began his tenure.

[jdpapa3]

He got 1st round picks from Dallas for the Walker trade. Turned into assets that later acquired Ray Allen/Rondo.

Wally Z for Ricky D was very lateral.

We needed assets. He did a crazy job for ownership. We were mediocre and got fans in the seats and even made the playoffs while still rebuilding on the fly. The selections of Rondo and Jefferson can't be understated. I just got a little perturbed by the use of the word "useless."

And yea, he almost did trade Pierce....for Chris Paul.

[More Banners]

It's also funny to call him useless when he had the best assets in the league to acquire TWO franchise type players in the same summer and STILL managed to hang onto one of the best under 23 players in the entire league and a top 10 player in the league.

Hey, I am all about Danny nowadays. I think he has done an excellent job as of late and has become one of the premier gms in the game. Raef and Wally weren't lateral moves at all. He traded for more years/more money in players that everybody knew were injury prone and were making wayyyy too much money. Both moves, in my opinion, were panic moves to get rid of Antoine and Blount.

Danny deserves all of the credit in the world from the offseason of 06 and on. When he picked up Rondo and traded Raef for Theo, you finally could see the wheels turning. He just did things that were completely mindboggling when he began his tenure.

He was pretty sharp.  Both of those trades included acquiring draft picks, which ended up being where the value was in those deals.  He was, as they say, adding assets.  Nobody thought Raef or Wally were really going to make us any better, but we needed more pieces than we had (after...ahem...being impatient and trading all of our earler, better draft picks).

But frankly, that was the easy part.  Trading for KG and Ray wasn't the hard part, either, even though it was pretty cool.  

The part is now and over the next couple of years, trying to reload with low draft picks, no cap space, and aging superstars without overpaying a FA with the MLE.

[BballTim]

This is why everyone should be glad Ainge is the GM. He doesn't overpay 'role players' Example James Posey. Hornets now stuck with over priced 'role player'. Its doesn't make sense to cripple the franchise with Corey Maggette contract. It doesn't matter who they throw in the deal. In a year or two Celtics will regret it.

You mean he doesn't overpay 'role players' anymore. Ainge was a pretty useless gm up until the Ray/Garnett deals. Before that magical offseason, we were the laughing stock of the NBA- the LaFrentz and Wally trades were two of the most hampering contracts a franchise could have traded for. We were stuck in mediocrity after the Antoine/Paul years. I think Danny has learned, but let's not fool ourselves. He really wanted Iverson, thought Telfair was the next star pg for this team, and who knows how close he was to trading Paul when he was at his lowest?

Who really knows what is best for this franchise? If we can get a player like Monta, we probably should go for it. If we can get a player like Iguodala, we should definitely go for it. I want a championship team again, but I will settle for a competitive team until the next one comes along.

  He was pretty close to trading Pierce, for Chris Paul. And if he thought Telfair was the next star pg then he wouldn't have drafted Rondo.

[wdleehi]

Right now, I am all about the Danny Ainge "let me help you make a trade while I steal something small I want" trade.

[snively]

I have seen a lot of people that would like to trade our pupu platter of bench fodder and expiring contracts for players like Maggette and Hinrich.

-The issue with this is that we have 64 million tied up to Perk, Pierce, Sheed, KG, Rondo, and Davis.
-That is only 6 players. Then you add a player like Maggette or Hinrich that make about 9 million per year.
-Boom. You are at 73 million already.
-That is before you even re-up Ray, which you will probably have to do to stay at contender level. Add 8 for Ray and there's 81 million for 8 guys.
-5 more guys on minimum contracts? What about our first round pick? That is a lot of money for the owners and it's not my money so I don't know how rough it is to keep reaching in the pocket. You can definitely say good-bye to a MLE player. Paying dollar for dollar tax on this is expensive!

Here's the thing: it won't just be like that for this offseason. It will be the same for the next 1 or 2 seasons after that, depending on the guy.

Pierce could decline the option and sign for less money over more years, but the cap number will still be very high.

Something that seems to be common on the mediocre teams in this league is paying "good" players in the 8-10 million dollar range. It's tough to be a contender when you have Ben Gordon for 10 a year, or Hedo for 10 a year, and I could go on an on. These guys aren't all stars and Hinrich and Maggette are NOT ALL STARS.

Look at the top tier of the league that doesn't have Lebron(league of his own). We have 3 max contract all stars, LA has 2 max contract guys, SA has max guys, Orl has Dwight and Vince.

We can't constrict ourselves with overpaid role players. That is a perfect way to make us linger in mediocrity after the big boys decline.

LA is paying Luke Walton, Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic more than 15 mil this year.  The Spurs are paying over $14 mil for the mediocrity that is Richard Jefferson.  Orlando is paying Rashard Lewis max money for the next few years.  Denver is shelling out oodles of cash to Kenyon Martin.  

Veteran-laden teams have to be willing to stomach payrolls between 80-90 million to stay competitive.  The only other model is the Atlanta Hawks (or Portland Trailblazers) one, in which you draft just the right young players (Josh Smith, Al Horford) and have them blossom before they get too expensive to keep you from signing a guy like Joe Johnson.

[jdpapa3]

LA is paying Luke Walton, Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic more than 15 mil this year.  The Spurs are paying over $14 mil for the mediocrity that is Richard Jefferson.  Orlando is paying Rashard Lewis max money for the next few years.  Denver is shelling out oodles of cash to Kenyon Martin.  

And we're paying Davis/Scal/Sheed 15 mil total basically... but 9-10 is not dedicated to one player. The Spurs are going to be a tough out in a playoff series no matter who they play. Orlando plays better when Lewis is off of the court. They had to gamble on Vinsanity because they were losing Hedo, and it is questionable whether they are contenders at this point.

People want Hinrich or Maggette, but will Wyc want to have an 85 million dollar payroll in 2012 when it is likely we aren't contenders?

[yoursweatersux]

LA is paying Luke Walton, Adam Morrison and Sasha Vujacic more than 15 mil this year.  The Spurs are paying over $14 mil for the mediocrity that is Richard Jefferson.  Orlando is paying Rashard Lewis max money for the next few years.  Denver is shelling out oodles of cash to Kenyon Martin.  

And we're paying Davis/Scal/Sheed 15 mil total basically... but 9-10 is not dedicated to one player. The Spurs are going to be a tough out in a playoff series no matter who they play. Orlando plays better when Lewis is off of the court. They had to gamble on Vinsanity because they were losing Hedo, and it is questionable whether they are contenders at this point.

People want Hinrich or Maggette, but will Wyc want to have an 85 million dollar payroll in 2012 when it is likely we aren't contenders?

First of all, I like your original post.

But to answer your question, I say yes, screw it, let's go all in now. This year is our year, or it's probably never... I don't care if we get hampered with bad contracts for a couple more years. We'll still be paying KG when we're not contenders anyway, so screw it.