Evans Clinchy NESN article about Ray Allen

[thirstyboots18]

I totally disagree with Clinchy's article about letting Ray's contract expire.  I think Ray would be amenable to coming back to the Celtics at a reduced contract if the Club is up front with him.  Maybe have some results based bonuses built in.  I think if the Organization starts playing games, we will lose Ray completely, or be put in the position of whether or not they should meet a higher offer sheet.  Ray still has great value for this club in the short term (maybe one to two years...and it is easier to add years than it is to subtract them).  Ray might even become a shooting coach for the Celts after retirement from playing. 

I just think it is too soon to chance Ray riding off into the sunset.

[Drucci]

Here is the link to the article, by the way  : http://www.nesn.com/2010/01/allowing-ray-allen-to-enter-free-agency-could-pay-off-for-celtics.html

I agree with you thirstyboots, I want Ray to retire as a Celtic and re-sign with us this summer. Obviously Ray will have to take a significant paycut to come back and I don't think it's going to be a problem since he will be willing to take it in my opinion. He is not the kind of guy who wants to get a lot of money, especially considering all the millions he has already earned in his career.

And I don't think anybody in the team (players + staff) would want to see Ray go away this summer.

Plus, the author of the article is quite biased when he says : "But his shooting has been sporadic. With a three-point percentage of 34.7 percent, Allen is having his worst season ever offensively."

He should mention that Ray is taking way more twos than threes this year, and that he is shooting 45,6% this year from the field, better than his career average.

Ray's percentage of made 3's is down but we're only halfway through the season and it will clearly improve.

PS : funny to see a Celticsblog trade ideas thread mentioned in the article.

[Jon]

To me it's not even so much about Ray retiring a Celtic, it's more about the fact that by re-signing him, we give this current group a couple more chances AND still have the possibility of using him as an expiring contract in a couple years. 

I mean, why not re-sign him to a 2 year, 20 million dollar deal that expires when KG does, give the team this year and next, and if there's a need to trade him in 2012, we still have a pretty nice 10 million dollar expiring contract to deal. 

[Redz]

Take a look at what Reggie Miller did ages 35-39.

If we can get that from it would be nice.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millere01.html

Interesting to note that Reggie's highest career MPG was at age 35.

[PLamb]

I think the Celtics need to think long and hard about trading Ray around the deadline because he may never be more valuable and as was said in the article:

"...his shooting has been sporadic. With a three-point percentage of 34.7 percent, Allen is having his worst season ever offensively.

It's almost like Allen's playing like a 34-year-old."

If indeed Ray's game is aging as fast as, well, his age, Ray may not be worthy of anything more than a one year contract at a few million

35 and 36 year old shooting guards don't really have a long history of success in the NBA, after all

[PosImpos]

Take a look at what Reggie Miller did ages 35-39.

If we can get that from it would be nice.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millere01.html

Interesting to note that Reggie's highest career MPG was at age 35.

Yeah, that would be pretty amazing.  But it seems unlikely, though they are similar players.

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Take a look at what Reggie Miller did ages 35-39.

If we can get that from it would be nice.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millere01.html

Interesting to note that Reggie's highest career MPG was at age 35.

The offensive numbers for Reggie were respectable, but there are two things I remember about Reggie as a player in those years:

1:  Very, very poor defense, and
2:  Zero titles, zero conference titles even.

Indiana would have been a better team without him, but they loved him too much to let him go.

[xmuscularghandix]

I'm extremely torn about this...

I understand that the only way to improve at the starting SG is to trade Ray. Because we're so far over the cap, even if we just let him walk away that doesn't give us the cap flexibility to go out and sign a FA. If we resign him we're getting about the same thing (maybe less) for a more affordable price, but still overpaying because of the All-Star, HOF credentials.

I love Ray but I love The Boston Celtics more.

[Roy Hobbs]

Plus, the author of the article is quite biased when he says : "But his shooting has been sporadic. With a three-point percentage of 34.7 percent, Allen is having his worst season ever offensively."

He should mention that Ray is taking way more twos than threes this year, and that he is shooting 45,6% this year from the field, better than his career average.

Ray's percentage of made 3's is down but we're only halfway through the season and it will clearly improve.

Yeah, that's really lazy analysis on the author's part.

How about "Ray's eFG% of .522 -- which measures his efficiency when taking both two point basket and threes into account -- is almost exactly the same as his career average of .523.  Similarly, his TS% (also account for free throw percentage) is near his career average (.573 vs. .575).  Since a slow November, Ray has greatly improved on the offensive end, despite slumping in the past two games".

That's a much more accurate take on Ray's offensive game.

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Plus, the author of the article is quite biased when he says : "But his shooting has been sporadic. With a three-point percentage of 34.7 percent, Allen is having his worst season ever offensively."

He should mention that Ray is taking way more twos than threes this year, and that he is shooting 45,6% this year from the field, better than his career average.

Ray's percentage of made 3's is down but we're only halfway through the season and it will clearly improve.

Yeah, that's really lazy analysis on the author's part.

How about "Ray's eFG% of .522 -- which measures his efficiency when taking both two point basket and threes into account -- is almost exactly the same as his career average of .523.  Similarly, his TS% (also account for free throw percentage) is near his career average (.573 vs. .575).  Since a slow November, Ray has greatly improved on the offensive end, despite slumping in the past two games".

That's a much more accurate take on Ray's offensive game.

Good points, Roy.  The article's analysis was just that:  Lazy.

In interpreting the numbers you posted, do you think there should be any consideration given in comparing current numbers to career averages to account for 1) switching conferences, 2) going from being 1st option to 3rd or so, and/or 3) going from less efficient to more efficient offensive teams?

[thirstyboots18]

Ray is in a shooting slump.  Part of the reason is because he has had to shoulder the load with KG, Pierce and Marquis out.  We have already determined that none of the big three can carry a team alone...otherwise they would have done it in the past.  It takes a combination, and more...a whole team effort.  Given the amount of injury time, our record is not bad.  Not too many teams could field second strings for as much of the season as we have (this year and last, too) and come up with similar results...maybe none of them.  Like I said before, injuries happen to all teams and that is not an excuse (and it will not win a championship) but we are getting over ours now.  Hopefully we will stay healthy for the rest of the season.  Kobe is having back issues now.  The Cavs are being bitten by the injury bug.  Maybe when Marquis gets back we can make our push for home court advantage while still managing minutes of the starters.  Ray could use a little time off, too, I think.  I think now is a terrible time (and idea) for the guys to play in the all star game.

[Jon]

Take a look at what Reggie Miller did ages 35-39.

If we can get that from it would be nice.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/m/millere01.html

Interesting to note that Reggie's highest career MPG was at age 35.

The offensive numbers for Reggie were respectable, but there are two things I remember about Reggie as a player in those years:

1:  Very, very poor defense, and
2:  Zero titles, zero conference titles even.

Indiana would have been a better team without him, but they loved him too much to let him go.

Well, Reggie never played defense and only won the conference title, what, once?  So it's not like he regressed or anything.

And who exactly that's out there now is going to play better defense than Ray Allen, offer what he offers on the offensive end, and is available?  That's what I'm not grasping.  The vast majority of the "stars" in this league, especially at the 2-guard spot, are horrid defenders.  While Ray won't be drawing comparisons to Shane Battier anytime soon, he's well above average in the defensive category. 

[Roy Hobbs]

Plus, the author of the article is quite biased when he says : "But his shooting has been sporadic. With a three-point percentage of 34.7 percent, Allen is having his worst season ever offensively."

He should mention that Ray is taking way more twos than threes this year, and that he is shooting 45,6% this year from the field, better than his career average.

Ray's percentage of made 3's is down but we're only halfway through the season and it will clearly improve.

Yeah, that's really lazy analysis on the author's part.

How about "Ray's eFG% of .522 -- which measures his efficiency when taking both two point basket and threes into account -- is almost exactly the same as his career average of .523.  Similarly, his TS% (also account for free throw percentage) is near his career average (.573 vs. .575).  Since a slow November, Ray has greatly improved on the offensive end, despite slumping in the past two games".

That's a much more accurate take on Ray's offensive game.

Good points, Roy.  The article's analysis was just that:  Lazy.

In interpreting the numbers you posted, do you think there should be any consideration given in comparing current numbers to career averages to account for 1) switching conferences, 2) going from being 1st option to 3rd or so, and/or 3) going from less efficient to more efficient offensive teams?

Sure, it's worth considering those factors, but it's difficult to give the proper weight to each of them.

For instance, you've focused on the difference in the conferences before.  However, this season Ray is shooting substantially better overall against the West than he is the East.  Other than shooting, his numbers are almost exactly even.  If you look at Ray's career averages, there has never been much of a change in his numbers in the East vs. the West; if anything, he seems to have had better performances against the West, at least judging by his time in Seattle.  Also, Ray of course played much of his career in the Eastern Conference, meaning his career averages take this into account.

In terms of going from a 1st to a 3rd option, this results in more open looks for Ray, but also fewer shots.  This is significant in that it gives Ray less of a chance to get into a rhythm, which most shooters will tell you is important.

I'm not sure how team efficiency will affect an individual player, as there are lots of inefficient players who play on otherwise efficient teams.  Also, of course, a large portion of the Celtics offensive efficiency is due to the spacing that Ray provides.  I'm not sure how you'd analyze this in a vacuum.

Ray's numbers are down this year compared to his first two years here, primarily due to a poor November.  In October, December, and January (at least until the last two games), Ray's numbers were consistent with the other two years here.  The "Ray is in a terrible slump" thinking that has become the conventional wisdom is largely a myth.

Also, for some perspective, Ray's eFG% is higher than the other elite shooting guards in the East, including Wade, Johnson, and Carter.

[fanofgreen]

I dont understand the point of trading Ray to get "younger" or to trade because of his expiring contract. We are in the midst of going after another championship.  I dont believe we need to try and get younger or try and steal one of these prized possesions of the free agent class coming up. I think more focus should be put on who is going to backup Ray rather than, trying to figure out who to trade Ray for.

We are in (imo), the best position in regards to our situation. We are contenders, this year, and have an expiring deal in Ray, who is still effective, is the most healthy player on the roster, still a threat offensively, still clutch, still one of the best shooters in the league. We have a player in Ray who realizes and understands that he is not a max deal player anymore, and would be willing to re-sign for less.

With the C's already being in the weak Eastern Conference our Championship window is probably 2 yrs. including this one, and depending on what happens with the big names this summer (Lebron, Dwade, Bosh, etc) the Eastern Confrence, has a good chance of becoming even weaker, thus increasing our window of oppurtunity even more.
  I say we wait to see with those big names first, before we decide what to do with Ray (which should be to re-sign him).

I dont see whats wrong with re-signing ray for the next couple of years at a reduced price, and keeping this Starting 5 intact for about 3 years. Meanwhile, during those 3 years, Danny's complete focus would on putting together a very good bench of young guys who are effective and  who can eventually supercede the Big 3.

The only reason Ray's game has really stuck out and shown to be slightly poor as of late, is because he is the only one who has been healthy. So he is sticking out right now because he is a 35 yr old guard playing 36/7 minutes a game over the last month or so.

I just dont understand the logic of people wanting to disrupt the best starting 5 (when healthy, and ray has been healthy so you cant blame Ray) with the best chemistry in the league over the last 2-3 yrs. And have a shot at a championship this year. Bringing in somebody brand new, you can say bye-bye to the wonderful/beautiful on and off court chemistry we see.

Just re-sign Ray in the offseason (for less)
Start putting focus on the bench for the next 2-3 years, who can move into the Big 3's spots in the eventually.

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Thanks, Roy. 

I've spent too much time with numbers/stats to be overly impressed with any of them, but thanks for pointing out that Ray is still holding strong offensively.  Shooters tend to do that, especially guys with a quick release, good health, and who are really nice guys, like Ray.  And, as many have pointed out, shooters are needed in the NBA to space the floor.  Consequently, a case can always be made for keeping them around.

Yet, for some reason, Wally Szczerbiak is unsigned.